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SLM Corp (SLM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- GAAP diluted EPS was $0.63, with net income to common of $132M; NIM was 5.18% (down 13 bps q/q on seasonal liquidity, up 18 bps y/y). Q3 also included a $136M gain on a ~$1.94B private education loan sale, and non-interest expenses of $180M .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS and revenue missed: $0.63 vs $0.81 and $366.2M vs $382.7M, respectively, while Q4 EPS consensus stands at $0.873* (Street estimates) (see Estimates Context) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
- Guidance: FY25 GAAP EPS raised to $3.20–$3.30 (from $3.00–$3.10), originations growth trimmed to 5–6% (from 6–8%), and NCOs (2.0–2.2%) and non-interest expenses ($655–$675M) reaffirmed; the EPS raise primarily reflects CECL reserve release on loans designated HFS ahead of an expected multi‑year partnership/loan sale program .
- Credit performance remained constructive: NCOs improved to 1.95% (y/y -13 bps), late-stage delinquencies/roll rates were stable, and delinquencies at 4.01% were largely driven by last year’s modification‑eligibility change; allowance stood at 5.93% of exposure .
- Capital return remained active (5.6M shares repurchased for $166M) and capital ratios strong (CET1 11.3%, TRBC 12.6%), while the common dividend of $0.13 for Q4 was declared .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong non-interest income from loan sales: ~$1.94B of private education loan sales generated ~$136M gain, supporting earnings mix .
- Credit quality: Net charge-offs improved to 1.95% (y/y down from 2.08%); late-stage delinquencies and roll rates stable; loan mod enrollments are about half pre‑change levels .
- Clear capital allocation and liquidity: 5.6M shares repurchased for $166M; CET1 11.3% and total risk-based capital 12.6% provide flexibility .
- Management tone: “We delivered another solid quarter in line with our expectations… strong credit performance, lower net charge-offs, stabilization in late-stage delinquencies, and continued lower levels of loan modification enrollments compared to the prior year.” – CEO Jonathan Witter .
What Went Wrong
- Miss vs Street: GAAP EPS ($0.63) missed consensus ($0.81*); revenue ($366.2M*) also below ($382.7M*) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
- NIM down sequentially: NIM of 5.18% fell 13 bps q/q due to peak-season liquidity drag (though still up 18 bps y/y) .
- Higher reported delinquencies: 4.01% of loans in repayment (vs 3.60% y/y), partly from last year’s change to mod eligibility which pushes some borrowers into delinquency buckets before qualifying for mods .
- Operating expense uptick: Non‑interest expenses rose to $180M (from $167M in Q2) .
Financial Results
P&L and Key Metrics
Credit and Portfolio KPIs
Estimates vs. Actuals (S&P Global)
Note: Values with asterisks were retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment breakdown: SLM primarily reports as a single lending/banking franchise; no separate operating segment P&L was disclosed in the 8‑K materials .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO framing: “We delivered another solid quarter in line with our expectations… strong credit performance, lower net charge-offs, stabilization in late-stage delinquencies, and continued lower levels of loan modification enrollments compared to the prior year.” – Jonathan Witter .
- EPS guidance mechanics: “We now expect our GAAP EPS for 2025 to be between $3.20 and $3.30… we anticipate selling both a small portfolio of seasoned loans and a portion of recent peak-season originations… we expect to designate a portion of our loans as held for sale prior to the end of the year.” – CEO .
- Gain-on-sale not in outlook: “We have not assumed anything in our guidance about a gain on sale… reserve release is contemplated; any Q4 closing would be upside to the number.” – CEO .
- NIM/Provision detail: NIM down q/q from liquidity; provision benefited from ~$119M release tied to the Q3 loan sale .
- Credit posture: “We continue to see stability in late-stage delinquencies and roll rates” and mods performing with ~80% payment success after a year .
Q&A Highlights
- Credit outlook despite higher reported delinquencies: Management attributes ~25 bps of delinquency to last year’s mod eligibility changes; expects late‑stage/roll rates to remain stable and long‑term NCOs in the 1.9–2.1% range through cycle .
- Held-for-sale accounting and guidance: Loans designated HFS release CECL; guidance reflects that release; exact reclassification amount undisclosed; gain-on-sale not embedded in outlook .
- Strategic partnership: Multi‑year private credit partnership anticipated; initial pool to include current book; structure aims for more stable fee‑like earnings and high capital efficiency .
- Gain‑on‑sale margins: Historically mid‑to‑high single-digit range depending on spread levels and buyer leverage structure .
- Marketing/underwriting: Continued discipline; origination growth achieved while improving mix/ROE; cost of acquisition trending down over time .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $0.63 vs $0.8095*, Revenue $366.2M* vs $382.7M*. Q4 2025 EPS consensus: $0.8734* [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
- Directionally, the Street may need to incorporate: (i) CECL reserve release on HFS designation (timing dependent), (ii) ongoing loan sale cadence and gain variability, and (iii) seasonal NIM dynamics tied to liquidity .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- EPS and revenue missed consensus*, but the quality of earnings benefited from a sizable loan sale gain; NIM pressure was seasonal, not structural .
- Raised FY25 EPS guidance to $3.20–$3.30 driven by CECL release on HFS loans; no gain-on-sale embedded—deal timing could present upside risk to Q4 .
- Credit remains manageable: NCOs improved, late-stage delinquency/roll rates steady; headline delinquency reflects mod-policy mechanics rather than worsening credit .
- Strategic pivot toward a multi-year private credit partnership could create a more stable, capital‑light, fee‑like earnings stream over time .
- Capital return remains a core pillar (5.6M shares/$166M in Q3) with strong CET1 (11.3%) providing cushion for execution and potential volatility .
- Near-term trading catalyst: further detail on the partnership structure/closing and any additional HFS designations; medium-term: Plus Reform ramp, originations mix, and trajectory of NIM within the low‑to‑mid‑5% band .
Additional reference materials:
- Q3 2025 press release and 8‑K including detailed financial tables .
- Q2 2025 8‑K for trend comparisons .
- Q1 2025 8‑K for trend comparisons .
- Q3 2025 earnings call transcript for commentary, guidance mechanics, and Q&A .
- Dividend declaration for Q4 2025 .