SI
SelectQuote, Inc. (SLQT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 FY2025 revenue was $408.2M, diluted EPS $0.03, and Adjusted EBITDA $37.7M; consolidated EBITDA margin ~9% as mix shifted toward lower-margin Healthcare Services .
- Versus consensus, revenue slightly missed (Actual: $408.2M vs $412.8M*) while EPS beat (Actual: $0.03 vs $0.023*)—Adjusted EBITDA strong but comparability to “EBITDA” consensus is limited given non-GAAP adjustments [*].
- FY25 guidance maintained for revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, with net income range revised to $(1)M–$28M to reflect warrant fair value changes; management expects finishing toward the lower half due to SEP eligibility changes and near-term SelectRx facility ramp costs .
- Segment trends: Senior delivered resilient profitability (27% Adj. EBITDA margin) despite a 26% smaller agent force; Healthcare Services scaled to ~106k SelectRx members (+41% YoY), with a strategic pivot to margin/cash flow over rapid member growth near term .
- DOJ complaint created headline risk; company “firmly rejects” allegations and emphasizes compliance culture—investors should monitor legal developments as a potential stock narrative driver .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong execution in Senior despite a 26% smaller agent force; adjusted EBITDA margin 27% and year-to-date Senior margin 30% vs 26% last year .
- Healthcare Services revenue up 53% YoY in Q3, SelectRx members reached 105,523 (+41% YoY); revenue-to-CAC multiple improved to 5.8x (TTM) vs 4.2x a year ago .
- Quote: “Our agent-led model… made our platform more valuable than ever… highlighted by a 15% increase in year-over-year policy close rates” — CEO Tim Danker .
What Went Wrong
- Senior segment revenue declined 17% YoY due to smaller hiring class and industry volatility; Senior Adj. EBITDA down 26% YoY .
- Medicare Advantage LTV decreased 8% YoY to $915 as commission structures reverted from upfront to ratable; management expects LTV down YoY in Q4 .
- Near-term profitability headwind from ramping the new Kansas SelectRx facility (low-single-digit millions per quarter), with Q4 EBITDA likely stepping back; management anticipates finishing FY25 in lower half of ranges .
Financial Results
Consolidated Results vs Prior Quarters
Segment Breakdown
Key KPIs
Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Note: “EBITDA” consensus refers to SPGI’s EBITDA metric; company reports Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP), limiting direct comparability .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “SelectQuote’s agent-led model paired with our technology-enabled information advantage made our platform more valuable than ever… highlighted by a 15% increase in year-over-year policy close rates.” — CEO Tim Danker .
- “Our consolidated EBITDA of $38 million… maintain healthy overall margins despite a large shift in our mix… We believe there remains significant EBITDA opportunity in both our Senior and Healthcare Services segments.” — CEO Tim Danker .
- “We plan to increase the mix of members that benefit most from SelectRx… primary goal will be to increase efficiency and build a more consistent margin profile… near-term headwind to profitability.” — CEO Tim Danker .
- “We maintain our full year ranges for revenue and adjusted EBITDA… expect to finish… in or towards the lower half… due to SEP changes and Kansas facility ramp.” — CFO Ryan Clement .
Q&A Highlights
- Senior vs SelectRx synergy: Tenured agents improved attachment rates to Healthcare Services; SelectRx growth lags Senior due to timing/seasonality .
- Agent hiring: Hiring underway for next season, enabled by improved capital; details to come with FY26 guide .
- Receivable securitization: Jefferies engaged; securitization remains one path among several to optimize capital structure .
- MA LTV outlook: LTV down YoY in Q3 from commission structure shift; expected down YoY in Q4 as ratable structures resume .
- SelectRx margins/Kansas facility: Longer-term efficiency/throughput gains expected; near-term low-single-digit million quarterly investment drag over next couple quarters .
Estimates Context
- Q3 FY2025: Revenue slightly missed (Actual $408.2M vs $412.8M*), while EPS beat (Actual $0.03 vs $0.023*). EBITDA (SPGI definition) missed vs consensus, but Adjusted EBITDA was $37.7M (non-GAAP, not directly comparable) [*].
- Q2 FY2025: Revenue and EPS both beat consensus materially (Actual $481.1M vs $447.0M*; $0.30 vs $0.097*), reflecting strong AEP execution [*].
- Q1 FY2025: Revenue beat, EPS missed (Actual $292.3M vs $275.8M*; $(0.26) vs $(0.197)) [].
- Implications: Consensus should adjust for the strategic pivot at SelectRx (margin focus, facility ramp) and the commission structure normalization impacting MA LTV and near-term Senior monetization. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term: Expect choppier profitability in Q4 from SEP eligibility changes and SelectRx facility ramp; management targets lower half of FY ranges—bias estimates accordingly .
- Medium-term: Margin/cash flow focus at SelectRx with scale (~106k members) and facility efficiencies is a credible path to EBITDA expansion beyond FY2025 .
- Senior durability: Despite agent headcount reduction, margins remain strong; CMS final rate notice supportive for carriers and market stability into next AEP .
- Revenue quality: Improved revenue-to-CAC (5.8x TTM) reflects marketing efficiency and cross-segment economics; monitor sustainability as growth moderates .
- Legal overhang: DOJ complaint introduces headline risk; company asserts compliance culture and plans a vigorous defense—track developments before the next guide .
- Capital structure optionality: Strategic investment and potential further securitization provide liquidity/flexibility; watch for updates that could lower interest burden and enhance FCF .
- Estimates posture: Shift focus to EPS and revenue beats/misses (less noise than EBITDA definitions); consider resetting LTV/attachment rate assumptions for Senior/SelectRx dynamics .