Sun Country Airlines - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 delivered record fourth-quarter revenue of $260.4M and GAAP diluted EPS of $0.24, with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.27; operating income margin was 10.0% and adjusted operating margin 10.6%.
• Results exceeded prior Q4 guidance: revenue beat the $250–$260M range and operating margin topped the 7–9% guide; management cited improving passenger unit revenue and strong cost control.
• Cargo was a key contributor: Q4 cargo revenue reached $28.6M (+13.1% YoY) amid Amazon rate escalations; management expects eight additional Amazon freighters in 2025 to double cargo revenue by next year’s summer run-rate.
• Q1 2025 guidance implies continued strength: total revenue $330–$340M, operating margin 17–21%, and block hours up 7–9%—supported by balanced capacity and strong bookings in leisure trunk routes.
• Catalyst watch: visibility on Amazon ramp, capacity rationalization in scheduled service, and Q1 margin guide support near-term estimate revisions and sentiment; ongoing labor agreements and balance sheet improvements (net debt/Adj. EBITDA ≈ 2x) underpin medium-term stability.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record Q4 revenue and adjusted operating margin; “our fourth quarter results exceeded our initial expectations” and topped revenue and margin guidance set at the beginning of the quarter.
• Cargo momentum: Q4 cargo revenue hit $28.6M (+13.1% YoY) with ~16% cargo revenue per block hour uplift; Amazon contract escalations and eight new freighters in 2025 expected to sharply increase cargo flying.
• Demand and pricing improvement: December scheduled service TRASM increased over 5% YoY, with average total fare per passenger up 2.2%; management noted trunk leisure routes (Phoenix, Vegas, Fort Myers, Orlando, Cancun) are “really good”.

What Went Wrong

• Unit revenue and load factor softness: Q4 scheduled service TRASM declined 1.0% YoY; load factor fell 3.1pp to 81.6% amid capacity shifts and a softer Caribbean mix.
• Cost pressures: adjusted CASM rose 7.6% YoY in Q4; maintenance costs up 14.5% and landing fees/airport rent up 18.4% due to the expiration of COVID assistance.
• Caribbean pockets softer and February intra-quarter demand lighter; management expects scheduled service ASMs to decline 3–5% across Q2–Q4 2025 to accommodate cargo growth—pressuring adjusted CASM mid- to high-single digits for 2025.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Sun Country Airlines Q4 and full year 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Michelle, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you would need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Chris Allen, Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Allen, you may begin.

Chris Allen (Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you. I'm joined today by Jude Bricker, Chief Executive Officer, Dave Davis, President and Chief Financial Officer, and a group of others to help answer questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, the company may make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements. Our remarks today may include forward-looking statements which are based upon management's current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially.

We encourage you to review the risk factors and cautionary statements outlined in our earnings release and our most recent SEC filing. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. You can find our Q4 and full year 2024 earnings press release on the Investor Relations portion of our website at ir.suncountry.com. With that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Jude.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Before we get into our financial results, I want to take a moment to address the tragic accident last week in Washington, D.C. Our thoughts are with the families and loved ones affected by this event. Our industry is highly competitive, but we've always worked together with other airlines, the OEMs, and regulators to make sure we deliver the safest possible operations. Once all the facts are gathered, there will surely be lessons that will be applied across the industry. We will continue to maintain the highest safety standards across our operations to earn and keep the trust of our passengers and the public. Our diversified business model is unique in the airline industry. Due to the predictability of our charter and cargo businesses, we are able to deliver the most flexible scheduled service capacity in the industry.

The combination of our schedule flexibility and low fixed cost model allows us to respond to both predictable leisure demand fluctuations and exogenous industry shocks. We believe, due to our structural advantages, we will be able to reliably deliver industry-leading profitability throughout all cycles. I want to first highlight a few developments. First, last month, we reached agreements in principle with the unions of both our flight attendants and our dispatchers. We expect these agreements to go to vote among the respective work groups in the next month or so. I'm excited to be able to deliver improved rates and work rules to all these team members. Also, we took delivery of our first cargo aircraft from our latest agreement with Amazon. This aircraft has yet to enter service, but by summer, we will have all eight aircraft, growing the cargo fleet to 20.

I expect cargo revenue will roughly double by this time next year. We also executed a redelivery off-lease of our first 737-900. This aircraft will also go into service this summer. We still have six aircraft that we own that are out on lease, redelivering through the end of 2026. These aircraft will provide the growth in our passenger fleet in the coming years. Including the freighters, we'll be able to grow block hours by about 30% through 2027 without a change in utilization or additional aircraft acquisitions. In scheduled service, and similar to the rest of the industry, we are seeing capacity rationalization starting to inflect unit revenues to the positive. Our TRASM was flat year on year for the Q4. However, in December, we saw a scheduled service TRASM increase almost 5%, which is where January is. Capacity trends remain positive through the selling schedule.

As underlying demand remains strong, I expect unit revenues continue to perform well. Our staff continues to deliver for our customers. Of note, our completion factor and mishandled bag rate, operational metrics that are particularly important to our low-frequency model, are near the best in the industry. After a strong 2024, you should expect more of the same from us in 2025. Margins at or near the top of the industry, high levels of free cash production, healthy growth at about 10% block hour increase, operational excellence, and continued balance sheet strengthening. With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

Dave Davis (President and CFO)

Thanks, Jude. We're pleased to report that Q4 was our 10th consecutive quarter of profitability. Both total revenue of $260.4 million and adjusted operating margin of 10.6% were the highest on record for Sun Country. With the exception of the Q2 of 2022, on an adjusted net income basis, we've been profitable in every quarter since our IPO in March of 2021. Additionally, 2024 was our fourth consecutive full year of profitability. Total revenue of $1.08 billion was our highest full year on record, driven by strong revenues in the charter line of business and the cargo segment. Operating margin for the year was 9.9%, and adjusted operating margin was 10.4%. Adjusted diluted EPS for the year was $1.05.

These results speak directly to the resilience of the uniquely diversified Sun Country model. Industry overcapacity prevailed through much of 2024, but the capacity picture changed quickly in Q4, and we were very active in adjusting scheduled service capacity to match demand. While scheduled service ASMs in the first half of the year grew 17%, we trimmed growth in the second half of the year to less than 5%. Despite the significant removal in scheduled service flying, we're still able to hold growth in adjusted TRASM to only 1.3% for the year. Unit revenues rebounded in the second half of the year as Q4 scheduled service TRASM was down only 1% on 3.5% growth in scheduled service ASMs. As industry capacity continues to rationalize, we are seeing a stronger pricing environment into Q1 of 2025. I'll now turn to the specifics of the Q4. First, to revenue and capacity.

Q4 total revenue of $260.4 million was 6.1% higher than last year. Revenue for our passenger segment, which includes our scheduled service and charter businesses, grew 2.2% year over year. Average scheduled service fare also grew 2.2% year over year to $159.88. Scheduled service TRASM steadily improved during the quarter, with December up 5.8% year over year. As we turn our focus to Q1 2025, we're expecting scheduled service unit revenues to be roughly flat with Q1 of 2024 on 7% growth in scheduled service ASMs. Charter revenue in the Q4 grew 2.3% to $48 million on 5% growth in charter block hours. As a reminder, a portion of charter revenue is a reconciliation of fuel expense caused by the variance of fuel prices to the amount specified in our longer-term charter contracts.

As Q4 fuel prices were down 20%, we received less revenue tied to fuel reconciliation. Excluding this fuel reconciliation, Q4 charter revenue grew approximately 10% over last year. Ad hoc charter revenue growth was also significant, as we saw it increase by 27% in the quarter versus last year. Excluding the fuel reconciliation, Q4 charter revenue per block hour was up 4.6% versus Q4 of 2023. 2024, I should say. For our cargo segment, revenue grew by 13.1% in Q4 to $28.6 million, which was an all-time quarterly high. This growth came despite a 2.5% decrease in cargo block hours. Q4 cargo revenue per block hour was up 16%, driven by the impact of a portion of the rate changes implicit in our extended Amazon agreement, as well as annual rate adjustments.

We continue to expect cargo flying to inflect sharply upward in 2025 as we take on an anticipated eight additional freighter aircraft throughout the year. One of the freighters has already been delivered, and we expect it to enter service in late Q1. The revised Amazon contract rates will continue to escalate as we receive additional aircraft and will not be in full effect until the second half of 2025. Turning now to costs, Q4 total operating expense grew 2.6% on 2.7% growth in total block hours. We continue to remain well-disciplined, as demonstrated by full year 2024 adjusted TRASM only increasing by 1.3% versus 2023. For full year 2025, we expect our ex-fuel operating expenses to grow in line with our total block hours, which are expected to increase between 9 and 10% versus full year of 2024.

As a reminder, our eight additional Amazon aircraft will drive most of the growth in 2025, and we expect full year scheduled service ASMs to decline between 3 and 5%, with the reductions occurring in Q2 through Q4. The lower ASM production will put pressure on adjusted TRASM, which we currently anticipate to increase mid to high single digits in 2025. This decline will happen from Q2 through the rest of 2025, as we are anticipating scheduled service revenue growth in Q1. Regarding our balance sheet, our total liquidity at the end of the year was $205.6 million. As of February 3rd, total liquidity set at $226.7 million. Full year 2024 CapEx was $88 million, which includes the acquisition of three aircraft previously on finance leases.

At this point, we do not need to purchase any incremental aircraft until we begin looking for 2027 or 2028 capacity. We expect 2025 CapEx to be between $70 and $80 million, with much of this spent on spare engines. During the quarter, we appended a new securities tranche to our existing 2019 EETC, raising $60 million. This was used to pay down a significant portion of the term loan financing our 737-900 aircraft. This is expected to drive savings of approximately $800,000 in 2025 interest expense. Our leverage continues to improve, and we finished 2024 with a net debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of two times. Additionally, we have extended the lease return dates on three of the four 737-900ERs currently on lease to another carrier.

The four aircraft are now expected to return to us in May, September, and November of 2025, and in November of 2026. We had one 737-900 return to us in November 2024, and we expect this aircraft to enter revenue service in mid-2025. These extensions provide continued lease revenues as we focus our 2025 growth on our cargo business. As the lease 737-900ERs return to us, they'll provide the passenger service growth we expect in 2026 and 2027. Let me turn now to guidance. We expect Q1 total revenue to be between $330 and $340 million on block hour growth of 7%-9%. We're anticipating our fuel cost per gallon to be $2.76 and for us to achieve an operating margin between 17%-21%. Our business is built for resiliency and will continue to allocate capacity between segments to maximize profitability and minimize earnings volatility. With that, we'll open it up for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. And to withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. We ask you please limit to one question and one follow-up. One moment while we process the roster. And our first question will come from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Ravi Shanker (Managaing Director)

Great. Thank you. Good morning. A couple of things here just to kick off, there's been some commentary on other airline calls about just strength in Europe in the Q1, kind of just unusual, probably driven by effects and such. How does that kind of impact you guys? Does it kind of help with feeder? Does it potentially redirect some traffic away from domestic winter destinations to Europe? Just obviously given how important 1Q is for you guys. Yeah. To start with the obvious, we don't fly there.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

So I think the secondary effect is that there's a reallocation of capacity into the transatlantic market that positively affects us. We're selling really well in the Mexican Caribbean destinations. It certainly doesn't appear that there's a shift in demand out of those markets into the transatlantic market. So I think on the whole, it's a positive. I mean, we would like to see strength everywhere for U.S. airlines. So there's no downside risk there.

Ravi Shanker (Managaing Director)

Got it. That's really helpful. And yes, I was referring to the indirect impact. And maybe as a follow-up, kind of Dave, thanks for the specific guidance there. But can you just help us, given the moving parts here, frame the trajectory of margin and TRASM evolution through the year, please?

Dave Davis (President and CFO)

Yeah. I mean, I think you know the seasonal profile of the company. Q1, we expect to be really strong. We gave guidance. I think as sort of revenues come in, we're very confident in that guidance. I think we'll follow sort of a typical seasonal pattern. A lot of how the year plays out is going to be driven by the exact delivery dates of the Amazon cargo aircraft.

We expect them to start service in March and then enter service throughout the year. They should all be in by late summer into the Q4. But I don't see anything abnormal from a seasonal profitability perspective for the company. One thing of note would be the things that we were dealing with last year primarily were competitive encroachment into our network, and that negatively affected the second and Q3 the most. As you can see in the Q4, we did quite well, the best we've ever done in the Q4.

And that variance, where capacity is now a tailwind as opposed to a headwind, is the strongest in the Q2 combined with the Easter shift into April. All else equal, we're not given guidance into the Q2. The Q2 has the most upside relative to prior year comps. From a capacity perspective, Ravi, probably you can anticipate Q3 being the biggest drawdown in scheduled service capacity for the year. Right now, it's looking to be around 10% reduction in Q3 and then starting to rebound in Q4.

Ravi Shanker (Managaing Director)

Very helpful. Thank you.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Thanks, Ravi.

Operator (participant)

The next question will come from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore. Your line is open.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Head of Travel Equity Research Coverage of Global Airlines and Lodging)

Hey, guys. Good morning. Maybe you could just speak to bookings patterns in the Q4. It looked like there was a nice build in your ATL. And is there something around maybe seasonal changes, or is the booking curve extending? Is it spring break? Any color you could provide on that would be great.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

I just want to make sure when we look at ATL, we should look on a year-on-year basis, not a sequential, because we have such strong seasonality. I'm assuming that you're doing that.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Head of Travel Equity Research Coverage of Global Airlines and Lodging)

We are. Sorry. We are, but I guess that sequential move is much stronger than it has been for the last few years. It looks like to us.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yep. So a couple of things. We're bigger in the Q1 than we were the prior year. That affects ATL. As we mentioned, we got some TRASM tailwind. One of the changes that we're inflicting ourselves on our own booking is just holding capacity further out. So we're seeing less variability in our pricing as a particular flight sells. So we're building load factor early on. And then as it moves close in, in the mid-range, we get less bookings because we see such strong demand close in these days, particularly in our larger Et markets. Anything else?

Duane Pfennigwerth (Head of Travel Equity Research Coverage of Global Airlines and Lodging)

Okay.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. So that's a complicated answer, but I'd say generally, the output of that is higher fares, slightly lower load factors.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Head of Travel Equity Research Coverage of Global Airlines and Lodging)

Got it. Thank you. And then just to the extent that you can on the cargo expansion, can you just remind us of, I guess, the cadence of the aircraft that you're taking on, how that may have changed, and relatedly, the cadence of maybe the rate improvement as that business rolls on? Thank you for taking the questions.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. I think as we sit now, there's really no significant change from the guidance we've been giving for a while. The first aircraft now looks like it's probably going to be in service in late March. Mid to late March. Mid to late March. And then they should all be in service by Q4. By the end of August. End of August. Yeah. So the rate of delivery is really fast, and the rate of the escalations, the two additional escalations in our rate is basically similar to what we've been talking about before.

Duane Pfennigwerth (Head of Travel Equity Research Coverage of Global Airlines and Lodging)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

And the next question will come from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Your line is open.

Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Good morning, and thanks for taking the question. Jude or Dave, do you guys mind talking about network priorities as you get into the summer months, especially as you flip some pilot capacity into the cargo business? And actually, should that help shape a better margin profile in those softer quarters for you guys?

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. I'll take that one. So it's pretty simple. I mean, the stuff that was on the margin last summer is going to be cut from the schedule. That's going to be the cuts are going to be a combination of, in particular, last summer, we had a lot of markets that we put in to repel competitive incursion. Many of those will be suspended. And then there's going to be some carving, some capacity reductions in sanctuary markets that had particularly low yield. So it's a pretty easy schedule to write from a capacity planning perspective. And yes, we expect fares to be substantially higher based on those capacity moves and then a general reduction in OA capacity across our network, underlying strong demand. Yeah, we're forecasting some pretty strong revenue projections.

Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Appreciate that, Jude. And then as you think about it going into 2026, I know it's far out there, but should we be thinking scheduled capacity remains down at the beginning of next year as well?

Jude Bricker (CEO)

I think probably by mid-2026, we should be pretty close to back to where we were, let's say, at the end of the Q1 of 2025. So in other words, shrink Q2, shrink Q3, and then start to rebound in Q4, grow into the Q1 of 2026. So sometime between there and the middle of 2026, we should be sort of back and then growing again.

Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Thank you, guys.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

And our next question will come from Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Catherine O'Brien (VP and Equity Analyst)

Good morning, everyone. Just a one-on-one on the margin outlook here, and we've already given some details. But your Q4 operating margin up just over 300 basis points year over year. Midpoint of the Q1 guide implies 100 basis point decline. Obviously, the fuel tailwind is smaller year over year. But just based on that, the capacity environment continues to prove further upside on Amazon. On the 1Q year over year versus 4Q year over year margin comparison, is that just fuel or maybe the new flight attendant deals in there? Perhaps some conservatism around industry uplift? Any color there would be really helpful. Thanks.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. So first of all, the new flight attendant deal is in there for part of the quarter. There was a little bit more significant increase in pilot pay in 2025. I would say, just speaking generally, probably the Q1 of 2025, we see at least as strong as the Q1 of 2024. We put a range around the guidance. Everything looks good at this point. Probably not going to say much more than that, but I think we're very confident in the number. Got it. Understood.

Catherine O'Brien (VP and Equity Analyst)

And then just with strong secondary aircraft pricing, do you think you'll still be able to find growth aircraft for later this decade? Can you just help us frame maybe rough numbers, how many aircraft you'd need past the ones you already have out on lease to get you through your growth plan through the rest of the decade? And do you feel confident being able to find opportunistic purchases for that volume of aircraft? Thanks.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

You know the answer is yes. There's two pieces that are out there to provide growth into 2026, 2027, and 2028. And those two pieces are the redelivery of the aircraft that are on lease with Oman, the 737-900s, those five aircraft, and then a couple of other ones that we have out on lease, 737-800. So those come back into the fleet. And then we still think there's room on the utilization front.

We're in the seven hours range-ish. We think there's upside to that as well. So there's probably 30%-40% growth just on the metal that we have right now. And that gets us into 2028, most likely. Used aircraft are expensive right now. We'll continue to be in the market, and we'll buy opportunistically. But with very little activity in the market, we think there's significant growth left in the airline enough to get us through the end of the decade. Just a couple more comments. It's good not to be dependent on Airbus, Boeing, CFM, or Pratt & Whitney the way they're executing right now. So I'd rather have our fleet plan than sort of anybody else's. And then also, we have very reliable aircraft.

So we're not having to deal with any of the out-of-service issues that other airlines are dealing with associated with the new technology equipment. So I mean, we already own these aircraft that Dave mentioned that are going to provide growth. I just feel really good about where we are on the fleet side.

Catherine O'Brien (VP and Equity Analyst)

Yeah. Definitely a great spot to be in. Thanks for all that color.

Operator (participant)

And the next question will come from Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)

Oh, hey. Good morning, guys. I guess a couple here. Jude, you talked about encroachment capacity, and I do see that as you guys scale back pretty meaningfully in, call it spring, early summer, we are seeing some additional capacity come into your markets by some of those who are probably just there skimming. And so I guess the question is, as you scale back, does it open up opportunities for others and maybe to establish share sort of thoughts on that?

Dave Davis (President and CFO)

Hey, Mike, let me take this opportunity to talk a little bit better about how we think about capacity. So I think the innovation that Sun Country brings to the market is that we basically say, at any moment in time, what's the best thing a plane can do right now? And then we fill out the schedule till we either run out of things to do, in which case we park airplanes or we run out of planes. And every other airline generally would build an optimized day and repeat it many, many times and then kind of tweak that day based on certain inputs. It's just a fundamentally different way to think about it.

What we want to get to, which probably is impossible, is where we don't have to fly, where our fixed obligations are so low and can be serviced by our cargo and charter flying that's contractual, that we can be entirely independent when we make capacity decisions. So when we look at summer markets, for example, that we're going to be pulling out, those markets work for us, but don't work for anybody else, even if we're not in them. We're talking about like Cleveland, Minneapolis that can be supported by a leisure carrier like ours because there's leisure demand between Memorial Day and Labor Day sufficient to support a twice-weekly service pattern. But if you're going to fly it daily with a 321 at the back of the clock, it's going to be empty at zero fares.

And so I'm just not at all. I don't lose any sleep about some of the backfill opportunities that might happen for other airlines. We are keeping our footprint down in these really, what I would consider strategically important markets. I'd call out like JetBlue leaving Minneapolis, Boston. If you go way back in time to 2017, we used to serve that market up to three daily in the summertime. We're going to keep a healthy level of capacity in that market. So I think markets that can sustain any significant capacity level will continue to get service from us. And then markets that really only work for us are going to be the kind of markets that we're going to be pulling back on for summer next year.

Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)

Great. Oh, great. Very helpful. And then just thanks for that. My second, just with all the headlines around tariffs and you're going all in on cargo, and I realize it's more about knock-on effects, secondary or second-order effects from tariff and the impact to overall cargo and commerce and freight. With your Amazon contract, do you have minimums, whether it's block hours or revenues? And so the plane flies, and if whether the plane is 90% full or 60% full, you're going to get compensated. Can you just talk about maybe downside risk protection? Thanks.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. So the way the contract, maybe before speaking broadly about tariffs, which are difficult to sort of assess, especially given that we have one customer, there's no set minimums, but the way this contract is constructed is there is a fixed rate per aircraft and then a block hour rate on top of that.So it operates as sort of a de facto minimum because we get paid for each aircraft. Generally speaking, the lower the utilization of the cargo fleet, the better the margins are for us because we can redeploy that pilot capacity, most of the calendar into more high-margin flying. And then you mentioned the load on the airplane. I want to call out, we can fly empty or full. It doesn't matter. The rates are the same. And it's past the economics on fuel and stuff. So any other secondary effects of a full airplane, that doesn't impact profitability of the cargo market for us.

Michael Linenberg (Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst)

Perfect. That's what I wanted to hear. Thanks. Nice quarter.

Operator (participant)

And our next question will come from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Scott Group (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I'm not sure if I heard this right, but I think at one point you said January unit revenue was tracking up 5%, but you're assuming for the quarter scheduled service unit revenue flat. Did I hear that right? I just want to understand that.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. So January is doing about what December did. We haven't closed January yet, but it looks like along the lines. February is going to be a softer month this year. So kind of the wash is and March is about in line. So that's kind of where we're at. On a quarterly basis, roughly flat.

Scott Group (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

What's driving the weaker February and flattish March relative to a strong January?

Jude Bricker (CEO)

So March has. There's the Easter shift. We should talk about a flat March with 5% unit revenue with 5% or 6% ASM growth, I think, is a pretty good result. In February, the weakness, I think some of it moving into sort of that April timeframe last year, was so concentrated with the early holidays. And we have some strategic capacity growth out of Milwaukee into the Caribbean, which we feel really good about meeting expectations, but there's just some year-over-year comp on that as well.

I'd say, yeah, just more color would be the Caribbean's a little bit softer than previous year, but our core markets are really strong. So those are the markets that you would see called trunk route for us. So Phoenix, Vegas, Fort Myers, Orlando, Cancun are all really good. And those become a more heavily weighted portion of the network in March where kind of early February is these once- or twice-a-week markets into deep Caribbean, and those are a little off. Okay.

Scott Group (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Last week, UPS announced a 50% cut in their volume with Amazon. So Amazon maybe has got to look somewhere else. Is this an opportunity for you, or is this what you're doing for Amazon is pretty different than what the UPS is involved with? So I don't know. Is this an opportunity, a risk?

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. I don't see it as a risk in any way. Here's sort of the issue. Amazon operates 20 narrow bodies, and we're going to have them. So unless we sort of go to a different fleet type where they grow that narrow body fleet, there's probably not a short-term opportunity to take advantage of what's going on at UPS. And as you pointed out, it doesn't matter if the aircraft are more full. We get paid on a per block hour basis. Now, over the long term, we love the Amazon business.

The margins are great. So we think there's probably more growth ahead, but I don't think the near-term UPS stuff is a near-term potential for us. The Amazon growth is coming faster than we can grow the operation and also keep the kind of performance that we expect. So we want to be able to absorb this growth, allocate more growth into our scheduled service, and then before we talk about cargo growth, if we could have it our way. That's how we do it. We pause on cargo growth after this 20 airplane expansion and then for a couple of years at least.

Scott Group (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

And then just lastly, if I can, I think you said $78 million of CapEx this year. What are the other puts and takes for free cash flow, and how are you thinking about the buyback right now?

Dave Davis (President and CFO)

Yeah. So yeah, your CapEx number is right. We'll be paying back a fair amount of debt in 2025. And a buyback is always on the table, and we are looking at it. And as we see sort of how the numbers come in, cash flow looks strong now, we'll kind of make decisions. But we're not announcing a buyback right now, but we'll continue to be sort of assessing it.

Scott Group (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Thank you, guys.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Thanks, Scott.

Operator (participant)

And the next question comes from Tom Fitzgerald with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Tom Fitzgerald (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, everyone. Thanks so much for the time. Did I hear that right that you said 30% block hour growth through 2027? And would you mind just breaking that out between scheduled charter and cargo?

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Well, that's just simple arithmetic of saying 2024 utilization applied to the in-service fleet that we will have after all the committed fleet is redelivered into the operation. Yeah. So that by definition is passenger growth. Yes. Yeah. So the 30% is basically, yeah, as you just said, the redelivery of the leased aircraft and then improved utilization.

Tom Fitzgerald (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks. That's really helpful. And then just longer term, how are you thinking about? I know in August you talked about with some of the volatility that other airlines are facing, wanting to keep your powder dry to invest opportunistically. How are you thinking longer term about adding other focus cities or adding another something else in addition to Minneapolis? Thanks again for the time.

Dave Davis (President and CFO)

Well, we want to do it.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

I'd say we're making the investments into markets that we think can support over time a Sun Country type operation. So we've expanded into the Upper Midwest with origination service out of Milwaukee. We continue to support our summer Mexican Caribbean service out of Dallas and Central Texas. So I think those are the kind of markets that we're going to be able to expand into at the end of the decade. But quite frankly, the next two years, it's going to kind of be getting the network back to what it was in 2024. Yeah. So I mean, I think if you just look a little bit sort of longer term, 2025 is all cargo, right? And then 2026, cargo basically the full year effect of these new aircraft will be hitting the growth of the airline as well. And then 2026, probably 2027, are refilling in Minneapolis and then some of these other focus cities. As we move to later in the decade, we think we can take this model to a lot of different cities.

Grant mentioned one where we're doing some strategic growth now, but that's definitely on the table, but we got our hands full with all of our sort of programmed in growth here over the next couple of years. I think also the point would be that it's difficult to predict where those opportunities are going to be because of the pull down from Spirit and kind of how all that shakes out, where they end up in their restructuring, and then Southwest is doing some pretty dramatic changes to their network and adjusting down their growth, so I think what we see as an opportunity a few years from now may not be what we see today, and so I think the main point is our capacity is going to be our growth capacity outside of Minneapolis isn't going to be available for about two years. And when that happens, it's going to be probably a different network.

Our next question comes from James Kirby with J.P. Morgan.

James Kirby (Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, guys. Most of my questions have been asked. Maybe just on the ad hoc charter segment, I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks that has been growth in the Q4. I guess what drove that? Was that just kind of better efficiency or demand? And I guess going forward, should we expect the charter segment to kind of be proportionally down with scheduled service for the cadence of the year?

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. The growth on a percentage basis in ad hoc charter in the Q4 was significant. And remember, most of our flying, 80% plus was on the program side. That percentage growth is off a relatively low base. But we did have a lot of football flying in the Q4 that really drove that growth. And we sort of see that ad hoc growth continuing into the year, into 2025. The cargo and charter business, sorry, is not going to be down on the order of the scheduled service business, maybe flat to up low single digits kind of a number.

James Kirby (Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. And there's no significant contract roll-offs in the next two years, I believe, right? I think MLS was 2027, or is that incorrect?

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Yeah. We did work with them this year, so we feel really good about that contract into the future. And then I would just say for the Q4, I would just add to what Dave said. I think it's just a very good illustration of the power of our model that when we brought scheduled service down, we had the ability to be more proactive on the ad hoc charter basis. And our customers are looking for that. We communicate really well with them. And when we have availability, we win business. So I would just say that. But yeah, we feel very good about our partnerships in the short term, the medium term. We're doing a really good job of delivering for our customers.

James Kirby (Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Got it. Thanks for the questions.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone. And our next question will come from Christopher Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna. Your line is now open.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Equity Analyst)

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. I want to go back to the Amazon. Good morning. Amazon business. So the dates, March, and then mid- to late August, you'll have the full fleet in place. So I want to go back to the economics here. So there's a fixed rate per aircraft, which I'm guessing covers all insurance and things like that, and a block hour rate on top of that, which is utilization agnostic. And then how much visibility do you have into the block hours? So is it sort of as your schedule is given a week, a month in advance? And then is the flying going to be concentrated out of CVG or more ad hoc point to point? Just want to understand the nuances here between the fixed block hour rate piece and then the commitments and how that kind of network looks and will ultimately shape over time. Thanks.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Schedule development is a two-month schedule that gets approved roughly six times a year. They come in, and we try to work together to optimize the schedule for utilization inputs, but ultimately, it's their network, and they fly where they want. I can't really comment on where we expect the planes to go because I don't really know. And that's the value Sun Country brings, is that we can do sort of anything with the airplane based on our charter DNA, really. But your comments about the rate structure are accurate in that there's a fixed component that includes margin and sort of everything else, and then the variable costs associated with the operation are passed through on a fee basis. So from our perspective, it doesn't matter so much what the network looks like.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Equity Analyst)

Okay. So I heard from .

Jude Bricker (CEO)

if I'm getting to your crux of your problem. Go ahead. Yeah.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Equity Analyst)

So two-month approval. So you have visibility into what March and through spring flying might look like at this point?

Jude Bricker (CEO)

That's right. Yeah. Yeah. Now, this is going to be a messy period just because the dates that we get the airplane on the certificate. So we take a delivery, then we'll do some work to the airplane, get it on the certificate, and then schedule it. And so there's going to be a little bit of noise about the fleet count and the utilization and the schedule as we integrate these aircraft.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Equity Analyst)

Okay. And my second question, so you spoke to the favorable supply-demand balance here in the U.S. We've heard that from your peers. But as we look at a map of your network, are there areas or regions that are perhaps doing better or worse versus what kind of sort of looks like a low single-digit domestic seat growth, or at least the first half, and a point or two of demand on top of that? Just want to understand if there are pockets that are doing better or worse than as we think about domestic system as a whole. Thanks.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

On the scheduled side, we're seeing, as I mentioned earlier, really strong demand into our really leisure trunk routes. I'd say the things that were uncertain going into this period are West Florida. They've had a lot of impact from storms down there. And we've got a ton of seats. We have five markets on the West Coast, and they're doing really well. I'd say Southern California is off a little bit. And then, Caribbean, as I mentioned earlier, but the Mexican markets are doing really, really well. That was a point of uncertainty just with all the geopolitical stuff going on. I don't know. I think you nailed it. Traditional spring break routes look really good year over year, just the capacity rationalization. And as we've mentioned, the Caribbean, there's pressure in the Caribbean, but it's because it's a strategic growth opportunity for us. We've done exceptionally well there. So we've added some.

These were single weekly markets. We've added some to twice a week. That's a significant capacity adjustment. These are really strong markets. So there was always going to be some impact of that, and some competitors have seen that too. But we will continue to be in these markets for the long run, and the customers are responding to what we've added. Yeah. That's a good point, Grant.

I should clarify. It's in the schedule because it's going to achieve some really high-level profitability. When I say weak, it's a year-over-year track of decline, but it's from such a high level in the prior year. Yeah.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos (Equity Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

I show no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Jude Bricker for closing remarks.

Jude Bricker (CEO)

Thanks for calling in, everybody. We really appreciate it. I think we have a great story, and we're excited to share it with you guys. Have a great day, everybody.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.