Schneider National - Q1 2024
May 2, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, everyone, to the Schneider First Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the one once again. Thank you. I will now hand the call over to Mr. Steve Bindas of Schneider. You may begin your conference.
Steve Bindas (Head of Investor Relations)
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Mark Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, Darrell Campbell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Jim Filter, Executive Vice President and Group President of Transportation and Logistics. Earlier today, the company issued an earnings press release. This release and an investor presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at schneider.com. Our call will include remarks about future expectations, forecasts, plans, and prospects for Schneider. These constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions under applicable federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations.
The company urges investors to review the risks and uncertainties discussed in our SEC filings, including, but not limited to, our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and those risks identified in today's earnings release. All forward-looking statements are made as of the day of this call, and Schneider disclaims any duty to update such statements except as required by law. In addition, pursuant to Regulation G, a reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures referenced during today's call can be found in our earnings release and investor presentation, which includes reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mark Rourke.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Thank you, Steve, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining the Schneider call this morning. In our opening comments, we will cover first quarter results in context with the current freight cycle, the positioning of our multimodal platform, including the ability to quickly pivot with the eventual market recovery, as well as our updated 2024 full-year guidance. Let's start with a recap of the themes we highlighted on our last earnings call. First, we noted that in general, customers entered 2024 with a heightened sense of uncertainty, but they also had the mindset that it's not a matter of if the supply and demand condition would recalibrate, but when. Second, our internal indices suggested that as we entered the year, the full load freight downcycle surpassed 600 days below neutral, which is long by any historical standard.
Third, irrespective of the market, we are focused on company-specific initiatives, including cost reduction actions and asset efficiency improvements, and returning our diversified and scaled operating segments of truckload, intermodal, and logistics on a path toward their long-term margin targets. All of these themes continue to be relevant as we sit here today. In the first quarter, the excess capacity condition persisted. January was especially challenging, with sluggish volumes and adverse winter weather, which negatively impacted a large portion of the network. We are assessing signs that market conditions are beginning to moderate. For the first time in six quarters, we experienced positive contract price renewal closures in the low single digits for the truckload network. While this is a promising sign, we have not seen enough to consider the market at an inflection point. In the first quarter, the outcomes of pricing renewals varied across our service offerings.
We achieved positive pricing and volume share gains with some large strategic customers as they prepare for the next market phase. We also renewed with certain customers at reduced volumes if retaining volume required contractual price concessions. In the short term, we are prepared to place more of our capacity in other configurations, including dedicated and the spot market, if necessary. This approach positions us to quickly pivot, leveraging our scale across our multimodal platform and to be at an advantage when the market improves. Next, I'd like to provide some insights specific to each of our business segments. In truckload network, revenue per truck per week in the first quarter contracted 10% year-over-year, with most of the change due to depressed rates.
The majority of the year-over-year and sequential change to network truck count is centered around the owner-operator community, which highlights the financial strain that small operators are enduring through this extended downcycle. Our company truck count has been steady as we've maintained flexibility to take advantage of an improved market when it materializes, even if that means a higher spot percentage in the short term. In truckload, dedicated revenue per truck per week was flat year-over-year and down 4% sequentially from the fourth quarter, with low single-digit utilization impact, primarily due to the severe weather in January. Our commercial and operational teams, along with our professional drivers, are executing with purpose against the dedicated portfolio and are serving as a catalyst for growth.
Dedicated will also benefit from an improving network market as improved pricing on backhaul and revenue share arrangements enhance margin performance while adding value back to our customer. Average dedicated truck count grew year-over-year by 773 units and 80 units sequentially from the fourth quarter. Dedicated now represents 62% of truckload tractors. The pipeline remains strong, and we have successfully closed on a series of second- and third-quarter new business award implementations, and this gives us further confidence to continue to take action to address below contract threshold accounts. Moving to the Intermodal segment, volumes were flat year-over-year. Growth in the West, Transcon to Mexico was offset by the East, which is the most competitive region with the truck alternative. Revenue per order was down 7% compared to the first quarter a year ago.
Intermodal margins improved 40 basis points sequentially from the fourth quarter, overcoming typical seasonal declines and more severe weather impacts. The intermodal network is showing modest signs of healing, with new business awards being implemented and dray cost efficiency gains. Intermodal first quarter contractual renewals were largely flat compared to a year ago. I consider this favorable, as last year's first quarter renewals were the most constructive of 2023. However, the outcomes of the early renewal season were more volatile than is typical. Pricing and volume gains and losses were higher in their amplitude, depending upon customer allocation strategies. Our fully asset-based positioning with the Union Pacific and the CSX rail partners differentiates us as we take further advantage of how well they are connected to deliver volume growth and operating efficiencies that enhance our long-term intermodal returns.
In addition, we are excited about the opportunity that will be created pending STB approval, to allow two of our rail partners, the CPKC and CSX, to provide a new service between Mexico and Texas to the Southeast. We are also encouraged by today's announcement that the Union Pacific will reduce transit by two days on the country's largest freight lane from L.A. to Chicago. In our logistics segment, we have observed that customers, in general, are favoring asset-based solutions. We have seen the favorability for our assets and asset-based brokerages play out in the first quarter, as our overall brokerage order volumes contracted only 8% year-over-year, and power-only order volumes grew each month through the quarter and year-over-year. Similar to other segments, brokerage has maintained its pricing discipline, foregoing volume to maintain accretive returns.
In the quarter, January's weather impacts were not absorbed as easily in the market as carrier costing and customer spot rates surged. However, the market moderated quickly. Logistics operating margins eroded over 300 basis points compared to the first quarter a year ago, but only 10 basis points sequentially from the fourth quarter. Our power-only offering has proved its value through both extreme up and down cycles, and we expect it to play an increasingly larger role in serving our customers' network truckload freight needs when the freight market rebounds. It can grow share of wallet with our customers and earnings to the business at highly efficient capital terms. Despite current market conditions, we are encouraged that margins improved each successive month of the quarter across truckload, intermodal, and logistics, with March experiencing a semblance of seasonality and slight end-of-quarter push.
Before I turn it over to Darrell to offer his financial summary insights for the first quarter and our updated guidance for full year 2024, I want to take this opportunity to recognize five amazing Schneider Hall of Fame driver associates who recently surpassed a significant and extremely rare safe driver milestone. I offer congratulations to John, Kurt, Daniel, Wayne, and Michael for achieving 4 million safe driving miles. Everyone at Schneider is looking forward to an event being held in their honor this summer, where we will celebrate their accomplishments, commitment to safety, and dedication to providing outstanding service to our customers. They are among the 92 professional driver associates who have earned safe driver awards of 1 million miles or more this year, and we are grateful for them and all the professional drivers at Schneider who live out our core values every day.
Now, let me turn it over to Darrell.
Darrell Campbell (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, Mark, and thanks to each of you for joining us this morning. I'll provide a financial recap of our first quarter results and give perspective on our updated 2024 guidance. You can find summaries on pages 21-26 of our investor presentation included on our website. Our adjusted income from operations for the first quarter was down $85 million, or 74% from the prior year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the first quarter was $0.11, compared to $0.55 in the prior year. The first quarter of 2023 included net gains on equity investments and higher gains on equipment sales versus the current period, which represented a $0.12 aggregate headwind to earnings per share.
$131 million EBITDA, which was in line with the fourth quarter of 2023, demonstrated a level of sequential stability and reflects the asset efficiency and cost actions we continue to implement. In our asset-based truckload segment, revenues excluding fuel surcharge for the first quarter of 2024 were flat year-over-year. Solid, dedicated, organic, and acquisitive growth was offset by lower revenue per truck per week on volumes in our network business. Truckload earnings for the first quarter were lower on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to network price and volume pressures, lower gains on equipment sales, costs related to dedicated new business startups, and inflationary equipment-related costs. Across all business segments, we continue to implement mitigating actions to improve asset efficiency and manage controllable costs while executing from a position of strength to be advantaged as the market recovery builds.
We continue to be disciplined in our commercial actions. Our Dedicated business continues to grow due to strong account startup activity, a robust pipeline, and solid operating performance of our existing accounts. The year-over-year consistency in Dedicated revenue per truck per week is indicative of the resilient nature of the Dedicated portfolio. In our Intermodal segment, first quarter revenues, excluding fuel surcharge, were down 7% year-over-year as a result of corresponding declines in revenue per order. Intermodal earnings were down year-over-year, primarily due to lower revenue per order and higher empty repositioning costs, partially offset by improved dray performance. In our non-asset Logistics segment, revenues for the first quarter declined 15% on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to decreased revenue per order and overall volume declines.
We're encouraged by the earnings improvement we've seen across all segments as the first quarter progressed, with a return of more seasonality, and we believe this is a positive indicator as we continue to navigate the current trade cycle. We expect to build on this momentum through the remainder of the year as we work to restore our long-term margin targets. We're also encouraged by the strength of our balance sheet, which allows us to remain committed to our capital allocation strategy regardless of cycle. As reflected in the $112 million of Net CapEx spend for the quarter, we continued to execute on our age of fleet objectives while taking appropriate actions to improve asset efficiency. We executed opportunistic share repurchases and paid nearly $17 million in dividends during the quarter, which was 5% above the same period in 2023.
We continued to generate strong operating cash flow of $98 million during the quarter, and our net debt leverage stood at 0.4x. Moving now to our forward-looking comments. We remain intently focused on executing all areas of the business, leaning heavily on those factors within our control, including commercial and revenue management discipline, managing asset efficiency, and delivering on cost containment initiatives. These efforts are ongoing, and we've been successful in delivering meaningful improvements. However, these efforts only partially offset the impact due to the persistent supply and demand challenges. We're seeing signs that inventory destocking has largely concluded, although shippers are cautious and reluctant to begin meaningful restocking, partly based on the impacts of inflation and interest rates on consumer confidence, including uncertainty around the timing and extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
In addition, since we shared our previous guidance, spot rates have not improved to the degree expected, and we're experiencing varying results in contract pricing throughout the allocation season to date. We're seeing positive signs across our business, with dedicated and power owner resiliency and improvements in earnings within our network businesses. While we do anticipate capacity attrition, modest demand growth, and a market that moves towards balance as the year progresses, the timing of market recovery differs from what was contemplated in our previous guidance. Our current guidance reflects a return to some degree of seasonality and our anticipation of modest sequential improvement in market conditions through the remainder of the year. As in all market conditions, we remain focused on controllable costs and asset efficiency actions.
As we progress through the year, we anticipate improving yields in our network businesses, volume growth in Intermodal and Logistics, and continued truck growth in Dedicated based on visibility to our pipeline. Taking our first quarter results and our revised market expectations into account, we have updated our adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range for 2024 to $0.85-$1.00, assuming a full-year effective tax rate of 25%. We're also adjusting our Net CapEx expectations to be in the range of $350 million-$400 million for the full year 2024. With that, we'll open the call for your questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you'd like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. If you're called upon to ask a question and are listening by loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up to allow for as many questions as possible from our audience. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Thank you. Our first question comes on the line of Brian Ossenbeck from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions here. Maybe I just wanted to start off with Intermodal. Maybe Mark or Jim, you can talk about just the allocation season, especially on the Western side. I think that was an area you called out last quarter. That was a little more challenging. You expected to get a bit more balance there. How did that turn out? How much visibility do you have to that? And, you know, will that start to help bring some more balance through the rest of the year?
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Yeah. Yeah, Brian, thanks for the question. This is Jim. So, you know, we're still about 40% of the way through our allocation season. As we've gone through that, as Mark was saying, we've remained disciplined, and, you know, we've been able to sell into those areas where we have differentiation in our network. And, you know, in the West, you know, we talked about it in Mark's opening, really excited about the fact that we have an improvement in transit time on the largest corridor. So we're going from a position where we were 24 hours behind the competing transit, to now we're 24 hours faster than the competing transit. So we think we have an opportunity to continue to grow there, so I feel really good about that.
We've had terrific results in Mexico, and now with the additional opportunity between the CPKC and CSX to provide that service between the Southeast and Texas and Mexico, there's some great opportunities for us there. And you know, getting back to the West, the UP expanded their capacity in the Inland Empire, and so there's nothing constricting us from growing that really important corridor.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, Brian, in the first quarter, we, we did see growth in the West, both Transcon regionally, and as Jim mentioned, just a real continued traction into and out of Mexico, what helped us overcome some of the difficulty in the East just because of the truck alternative in that market being more sensitive to truck pricing. So, which is a little bit of reversal a year ago. If you remember, we've been growing more in the East, so we've had a little bit of a, a renaissance with growth in the West, which is highly encouraging, and we continue to lean into that.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thanks for that. And then just maybe more broadly speaking, when you look at the guidance for the rest of the year and the level of competition that's out there, you've. As you mentioned, the East is pretty competitive. You got one other large competitor looking at basically down mid-single digit rates for their book of business this year. How can you work through that? And I guess, what, what are you seeing that gives you the confidence to see more seasonality, and then sort of this back half recovery, even though it's a little bit later than, than you initially thought? Is that more on the demand side? Do you really think capacity is going to start to get squeezed out? What are your specific thoughts on that? Thank you.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Sure, sure. Obviously, it's been hard to predict in this market over the last couple of years, Brian, but as we looked at the first quarter and the continued improvement in results, January through March, both from a demand standpoint and leaning in now into the allocation season and seeing some turn in pricing, not in every condition and in every place, but starting to see some positive price movement, we think is an encouraging sign. And we would expect, as the consumer to date has kind of hung in there in our industrial markets, as we're highly diversified between consumer and industrial markets. And what we've seen so far in April is really what's embedded in our thought process going forward, for the remaining quarter.
So not as positive as we felt as we were coming through the latter part of last year. We were seeing, in our view, the replications and some of the changes in capacity that we felt was starting to turn more aggressively, particularly going into what we would have expected to be a hardened insurance market. And again, I think what is happening, we're seeing a little bit more resiliency still in the capacity front, but we still expect moderate, and we're seeing moderate reductions there and moderate demand improvement into some seasonality. And so it's not... So those are really the key factors for the remaining part of the year.
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
And Brian, this is Jim. The other factor, as we're looking at the East, is the competing rail service. You know, there's a potential for some disruption as they will be reworking potentially their network, and that's something that we experienced with the CSX a number of years ago. It was a challenge for us, and so there's a potential coming up here in the remainder of the year that we could see some disruption on that competing service.
Yeah, feeling some real momentum in intermodal in total.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Sorry, just to clarify, the low single-digit contract renewal you mentioned earlier, was that for truckload, or is that just for the current wave of contracts? Maybe you can put a little more context on that.
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
The truckload. It was referencing truck network.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. All right. Thank you very much for your time. Appreciate it.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Ravi Shanker (Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst)
Thanks. Morning, everyone. I think the commentary on recent contract rate increase was pretty encouraging. Can you unpack that a little bit more? Is that for customers who just had the easiest comp? Do you feel like that's sustainable? Kind of, how are some of those increased conversations going down with customers?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, Ravi, the comment about easy comps, I think easier comps are kind of later in the year. This, as we referenced in our opening comments, both in our intermodal and truck network, the most constructive allocation season a year ago was the first quarter. And so also in my comments, I indicated strategic customers who are anticipating where they're going next in the, in the marketplace are looking, I think, to value incumbency more and also asset-based solutions more. And I think that's more of a consistent theme that we're hearing through the allocation season, but it's not everybody. And for those folk that want to continue to press in a different direction, then we have to make sure that we're doing the right thing for our shareholders and our business, and, if necessary, we'll also reduce volume and look for other alternatives there so...
But I agree with you, it is a good encouraging sign and a momentum that we intend to build on as we go through the remainder of the season.
Ravi Shanker (Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst)
Got it. Just a follow-up to what you just said about your customers preferring asset-based carriers. As someone with a pretty large logistics operation as well, kind of, is that a consistent trend you're seeing? Because we are starting to hear of maybe, you know, shippers moving more towards asset-light opportunities as potentially a reason why, you know, rates are being suppressed for a while. Kind of, do you see a swing back towards asset-based?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Well, I, I base my comments and assessment on just customer conversations and behaviors. And, you know, I do think we are advantaged when we have a multimodal platform the way we do, and, and certainly power-only in our brokerage business that integrates, well with our trailer pool offering on the asset side for our customer. You know, we work hard to make that incredibly seamless. And, so I think the combination of how we go to market and, and our portfolio as it relates to brokerage with that power-only offering, I think gives us, advantage, and we're seeing it in volumes growing even year-over-year across that segment, and, and showing its resiliency, whether the market's up or whether the market's down.
Ravi Shanker (Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst)
Very good. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jason Seidel from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
Thank you very much. Wanted to start on intermodal. I mean, clearly, there's a lot going on with improved service, whether it's coming from the West or coming cross-border. You know, I was wondering, as we look out into the future, do you think that that can actually maybe push that intermodal growth rate, you know, sort of beyond what we've seen in the past?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Great. Thanks for the question, Jason. Go ahead, Jim.
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Yeah, this is Jim. Absolutely. Yeah. I agree with you that it creates a differentiation for us that, in addition to service, that, you know, customers in the past looked at reliability and service as a reason why they expected, you know, a discount, a savings for using intermodal. As you reduce that transit difference, it's more reliable, as well as sustainability. It starts to change that. And there are customers that we have today that are already looking at this, and they no longer expect a discount for intermodal, given the service that it's already at and the sustainability improvement. I'd expect as you go further, there's more customers, they'll put more weight towards sustainability.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
So as we look out, and if we just assume that, you know, truckload rates recover, so you're gonna have that spread narrow between intermodal and truckload, as well as service improve. Should we just expect that they're gonna be stronger growth rates on the, at least on the volume side for intermodal?
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Yes, we'd expect that intermodal would grow faster than over-the-road transportation.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
Perfect.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, and kind of on-
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
One follow-up. I'm sorry, go ahead.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Well, Jason, we also have more tools in our toolbox here, with the performance, Mexico. Again, we had some STB approval on some other lanes, and now we're getting a chance to fully exercise after a year, with our UP partner in the West, and not going through a change this year like we were going through last year. And all of those, I think we're just in a more stable condition, and customers like stability when it comes to intermodal.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
That makes sense. My other follow-up is just sort of trying to get clarification on your guidance. So what do you have built in for equipment sales in the back half of the year?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yep. So for equipment sales, I mean, if you recall, when we gave our guidance for the fourth quarter, you know, we said that we expected some headwinds as it relates to gain on sale of equipment. So we are essentially, you know, assuming flat, you know, or zero gain on sale, which was a $30 million headwind. So what we saw as we progressed through the first quarter is that proceeds were stronger, primarily based on the mix of what we're selling, but also as it relates to the trailer pool, we saw unit price improvements versus what we initially thought. But as we go through the year, the expectation is that that's gonna moderate. So some of the gains that we saw in the first quarter would not be expected to continue.
So we're more in line with what we had initially guided to a few months ago.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
Pretty much flat in the back half of the year right now?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yes.
My-
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
Fantastic.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Very little gain.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
Yeah.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Very little gain. Yeah.
Jason Seidl (Managing Director of Industrials and Airfreight and Surface Transportation Research Analyst)
Very little. Okay. Gentlemen, appreciate the time.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Good morning.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Good morning, Ken.
Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Mark, definitely a little surprised by the positive backdrop, given what we've heard from some others. So I just want to interpret that a little bit. It sounds like maybe seeing a little bit more of a turn in intermodal. You know, Darrell's been pretty positive on the comments here. You answered Ravi on the contract market, which was up a little bit. I guess I'm still trying to figure out if that was just 'cause contracts were underwater or if that's real strength. Because then in your commentary you threw in, "We've also moved more business to spot." So maybe just parse that out a little bit or follow up with some more thoughts.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, you know, Ken, thanks for the opportunity to clarify. Certainly, we're not calling an inflection in the market. What we really highlighted there is the discipline relative to how we're looking through allocation season and the alignment we have with customers that value incumbency, value what we provide, and looking in those cases to be recognized for that, and our commitments are reflective. If folks are not in that camp, then that's what goes more to spot or more into dedicated that are looking to extract more from a marketplace that we don't think is sustainable. And so in those cases, we might lower our commitments and lower our volume with those customers.
In the first quarter, in aggregate, that net was slightly positive in the low single digits on the contractual renewal front. That's what I would read into it. I wouldn't read into it that we're suggesting that we're in a market inflection, but I do believe it's at least a positive sign. It's at minimum, it's less negative, let's put it that way.
Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah. And just a follow-up on Dedicated. The sequential decline in revenue per truck, I guess some peers have noted some competitive undercutting. I know you talked about a big win maybe a quarter or two ago. Can you talk about the market now and on the Dedicated side? How is it panning out?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, we would consider the dedicated market fairly stable. Again, we're highly diversified within that market, Ken. Not only in the- if we're talking retail, we're highly diversified across virtually every segment of retail, from a you know, extreme value all the way up to the home improvement and big box. But we're largely and increasingly focused on our growth on the industrial side of the economy, which is more in the specialty equipment. And what we find there is folks that have scale, folks who have reference ability, and folks that have a balance sheet to go ahead and play there, the competition, while always there, and we have good competition everywhere, we wouldn't characterize it as any more difficult than we've experienced in the last couple of years. So it's a focus.
We have it resourced well, we're performing well, and the pipeline continues to build.
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Yeah, there were... And this, Jim, there was no drop off in pricing. There were some weather events in Q1 that had some impact on our productivity. That was the primary driver.
Ken Hoexter (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Guys, appreciate the time. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadowitz from UBS. Please go ahead.
Tom Wadowitz (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, good morning. I think I know you've talked a fair bit about rates, and it's good to see. Good to hear the constructive commentary. In terms of the modeling for kind of 2Q in, you know, revenue per truck per week, or in intermodal revenue per load, would we think that's stable sequentially, or is it down sequentially? Or I guess, I mean, your comment on contract rates, maybe you say it's actually up a little bit sequentially, but just trying to think about how to translate that into the model for 2Q.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, Tom, we don't give specific quarterly guidance on metrics or business, but I draw you back to improving conditions through the quarter. January through March, and really, all three of the businesses relative to its operating metrics and ultimate performance, was a pretty difficult start to the quarter and a start to the year. And a little bit what we obviously can see here in the month of April. So that is what's behind our adjusted downward guidance, but how we build what we consider modest momentum from here, both on the capacity and demand standpoint, and the fact that we've been leaning into costs very, very directly for the last several quarters and getting to some of the benefit of our cost position and our cost actions and give the organization great credit.
And doing it in a smart fashion, that it doesn't impede our ability to respond, when the market condition starts to turn. So what I would consider smart, constructive, and sustainable, leaning into cost positions across the income statement.
Tom Wadowitz (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. How do you think about... And I know you've had a couple on this too, but just intermodal competitive dynamic does seem to have, I think, I don't know if you'd use the word churn, but maybe some greater movement than normal. You know, it seems like one of the players has gotten, you know, a bit more aggressive on volume, and, you know, your outlook seems constructive, I think, in terms of seeing volume growth. Just, how much visibility do you have to the volume growth, and did you kind of avoid some of the greater rate pressure, or, how, just how do you think about the dynamic that's happening in the intermodal competitive market? Thanks.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, Tom, I think I got your question. If I missed it, please come back. But, you know, what I really want to start with is how we're approaching this from a strategic standpoint, and that starts with how we've aligned relative to our underlying rail partners, which we feel really, really good about. And we did that for the specific purpose, based upon our asset-based model of owning our own box, chassis, and largely our own company dray, that we wanted to have as much distinction with our key competitors as possible, so that we could bring a different type of solution to our customers and the underlying railroads that help support that.
And that's only been encouraged further by the newer relationship with the CPKC, a terrific operator, doing extremely well for us in Mexico, and looking like us to extend reach and capability in other parts of the network, which they've announced some intentions to do that. So it's the combination of getting some maturity in what we outlined in our strategy, and, you know, ultimately, the market has to be there, and ultimately, the intermodal business has not been immune to pricing pressures or competitive pressures. But again, I think we're poised and ready to take advantage of what's in front of us. Now, we just need the market to go along with us a bit.
Tom Wadowitz (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Do you think you have good visibility to the volume growth? Like, you kinda have the contracts in place to get that, or just what, what about the visibility on volume side?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, we're getting close to about 40% through, so we have a little better visibility. Fulfillment rate is always the key measure there. What you're awarded and what the customer's business is always has to be, you know, ultimately delivered to us. But yeah, we have a lot, so a lot of the year left, and we have a lot of the allocation season yet to go, but we have visibility to, like I said, roughly about 40%.
Tom Wadowitz (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Right. Okay, that makes sense. Thanks for the time, Mark.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Jordan Alliger (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, hi, just a quick question just on intermodal and the margins and sort of return to sort of the longer term targets that you guys have talked about. Is it safe to say that the price dynamic has to be the key driver of that at this point, relative to the volumes and perhaps productivity even that you're seeing with the rails?
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Yeah, this is Jim. So there's a number of actions here. First of all, staying, you know, disciplined on price as we go through the allocation. So price is a part of that, but also, you know, we're seeking to heal our network, where we need to drive out some empty miles. And driving out those empty miles helps us improve our asset utilization, our productivity. And you saw a little bit of that as we saw some improvement on dray. And then intermodal is no different than our other segments, where we're focused on managing cost, but at the same time preserving that ability to grow. And where we're growing is gonna be specifically growing into those areas where we have differentiation. And so taking those actions is what puts us on the path to hitting our long-term margins.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
So yeah, it's a combination of our revenue actions, a combination of rail costing, and a combination of our cost positions in general. So, we have... Yeah, we're on the path, but we got a ways to go coming out of where we are in the market.
Jordan Alliger (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes on the line of Bascome Majors from Susquehanna. Please go ahead.
Bascome Majors (Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, thanks for taking my questions. I want to go back to the seasonality question. If you look historically, you typically see a pretty meaningful lift in the second quarter. It sounds like you've got confidence in that from your comments about sequential momentum in all your businesses through the first, and that continuing into April. And just, you know, for the second half tends to be kind of sideways in the third quarter, depending on the market, and then, you know, you see the typical 4Q peak seasonality. Is that the shape of the year contemplated in your guidance? Just any thoughts about how, you know, seasonality might be a little different than the historical patterns would be helpful as we think about the rest of the year. Thank you.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Thanks for the question, Bascome. You know, as we kind of set back and look at, quote, unquote, "seasonality," you know, one of the things that was interesting for us that didn't end up holding as long in the first quarter was the weather events. When we had the weather events a year ago, those were much quicker absorbed into the marketplace, with really little difference between price and carrier costing and those items. It was interesting to see in the weather patterns, this year, that quickly changed. Both spot pricing increased, carrier costing increased, which I think suggests that there has been a degree of tightening. So that's hit and hold. Obviously, there was pricing, spot pricing started it to retract back, but at least that, then there was a bit of a change in the marketplace.
There was a change in those metrics, in those dynamics. As we look towards seasonality now and seeing a little bit of a return with inventory seem to be, in most of our customers, relatively where they should be, that we got back to some end-of-quarter projects. We got back to some end-of-quarter protection for volumes that, you know, people push out a little bit heavier at the end of the quarter. Again, not an inflection. Being very clear about that, not an inflection. But some of those changes and some of those more typical market practices started to return. And so as we think for the rest of the year, that's what we're really referencing on seasonality, of moderate seasonality, back to some similar behaviors.
Again, not inflecting, we're not suggesting that, that we're through the cycle completely, but that's how we're thinking about seasonality. And, and I would characterize it fairly typical as we would normally see it through history, which is what you suggested in your question.
Bascome Majors (Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you for the time.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro from Stephens. Please go ahead.
Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Yep. Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks. I got a question.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Good morning.
Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
I want to start on the dedicated side. Growing truck count nicely on dedicated. We may have missed it, but what does the sales pipeline look like there? And then as we think about the embedded ramp in earnings in the back half, are there startup costs as you're winning these contracts that are weighing on the first half? Or how should we think about the profitability of dedicated as we roll through the year?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, good question. And certainly the best time for cost for Dedicated is when you're just farming everything that you have, and you're not starting up. So there is impact when you go through startup, but we're in a pretty consistent cadence of startup on a quarterly basis. What I outlined in my opening comments is we have sight to several startups in the second and third quarter based upon implementation schedule. We laid out at the beginning part of the year that we expected to net up several hundred Dedicated trucks, knowing that now that we're at 6,200-6,300 trucks, even a modest churn of 2%-3% creates a couple hundred units of new business that you have to grow to maintain yourself.
And so those initial projections are pretty much where we see and expect the year to play out. So, the pipeline is strong. We've increased our efficiency, meaning we have improved our tractor-to-driver ratios in dedicated, which has helped us lower costs for new implementation. We've got more efficient, so we use those tractors on some new startups, which lowers our friction costs to get things started up. But overall, we would still very bullish, and this is across a very diversified part of the economy. We're not really concentrated in any one area. We have good distribution across both the industrial and the consumer markets.
Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
That's helpful. Then as a follow-up, maybe on intermodal margin, you had revenue down sequentially. There were some disruption from weather, and yet OR improved from the fourth quarter. Is that just some rail cost adjustments that flowed through in the first quarter with your partners? Or what specifically drove that margin improvement despite those conditions?
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Yeah, this is Jim. And thanks for the question. So specifically, it's some improvements that were sequentially in healing our network and as well as utilization of our drivers. So when we were talking about going through the bid season, then very specific of growing where we have differentiation, where we can take out empty miles, and as we're taking out empty miles, that's improving the asset utilization, the productivity, and that's enabled us to have some sequential improvement in margin.
Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks so much. Best of luck.
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Okay.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes on the line of Jon Chappell from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)
Thank you. Good morning. It's ISI.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Good morning.
Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)
Mark, on the power only, so some real positive comments there, increased each month throughout the quarter. It seems like that's been, you know, one part of the business that's held up, you know, pretty well, relatively speaking, relative to the rest of the portfolio. Yet the logistics margin now is still, you know, in the sub 2% level. So can you help us just understand, does power only just provide kind of a stickier business from a volume perspective, or is it truly higher margin? And I guess maybe in the absence of power only, you know, you'd be kind of bouncing around break even.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Oh, yeah. Let me see what I can kind of share here. So first, as we generally have talked about in our brokerage business in total, we are generally about 50% contract, 50% spot to the customer. And that can toggle depending upon market into a 60/40 either direction. Under the power-only model, within there, we are even a higher percentage of contract business, so it's repetitive. It gets what we commit to through allocation events. And because we're bringing some asset component to that, the trailer, we do get a higher net revenue per order in power-only than we do in our traditional brokerage offering. And it's just exacerbated presently just because of the difficulty and the competitive...
the highly competitive nature of the live-live brokerage margin, or excuse me, market. And so, power only is accretive to the margin performance of the business in total, and even more so now in this, what we consider the most difficult part of the market for our live-live brokerage offering.
Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)
Okay, that helps. And then I apologize for how big picture this is, but I think it's pretty important. It feels like the capacity is still pretty stubborn across the truckload side and just hasn't accelerated to the pace necessary. And then we're also seeing some really negative commentary out of some of the biggest consumer products companies in the country-
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Mm-hmm.
Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)
-or the world. So I'm just trying to understand with those two headwinds remaining seemingly stiff, where do you think some of this sequential improvement has come from, you know, since January, consistently and even into April? Is it just like things couldn't go lower and there's only one way to go from here, or are there green shoots outside of maybe the bigger picture things that we focus on, that we just can't see yet?
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Yeah, it's, you know, it's hard to have perfect vision across all of those elements, which I think has been so stubbornly difficult going through this current elongated freight cycle, Jonathan. But I do believe most customers are through the inventory destocking, right? So whatever is kind of moving through the channel, there is something that's backing it up to replenish it. And so while it's not building necessarily, we don't see a lot of that condition. It does seem to be, quote, unquote, "more normal" relative to where inventory is, sales occur, and then whether it's coming through the vendor inbound into DC or through our dedicated trucks from DC to store, it's steady.
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
I would consider demand fairly steady, and certainly we saw improvements through the quarter, in the first quarter, in our early view here to April. So, again, always hard to predict the future, but what we're seeing would seem to be a more normalized condition. Yeah, and I think the other key aspect here is just the importance of remaining diversified. We're not tied to any one single customer that's making up a significant portion of our volume in any one of our segments, and that enables us to be successful through the cycle.
Darrell Campbell (EVP and CFO)
Yeah, and I guess the only thing I would add is some of those macro factors that you did outline have led to the reduction in the guidance, right? But as we look forward, you know, we do have some conviction based on the sequential improvement. It's not only on the pricing side, but the productivity actions and the cost actions that we've taken have helped to improve our earnings as we've gone through.
Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)
Okay. Thank you, Darrell. Thanks, Mark. Thanks, Jim.
Mark Rourke (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our final question for the day comes from Brian Ossenbeck from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks for taking another one here. Maybe just,
Darrell Campbell (EVP and CFO)
Two-time caller. Just here listening.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
That's right. Well, I just want to ask real quickly on a negative cash flow for Darrell. Seems like maybe this should be the low point, but you're still sticking with most of your CapEx plans, so maybe you can just walk through that. And then, Jim, it would be good to hear your thoughts on the dynamics in international intermodal. We've clearly seen some pretty strong growth, you know, easy comps, but you know, just wondering your thoughts on how that trickles down into domestic. Is that channel, you know, getting more full, and thus, so therefore, we should see more transloading? Or do you think that maybe these ocean carriers are really just fine, sending more and more boxes IPI, and that might be a headwind for growth? So thanks for the follow-up.
Darrell Campbell (EVP and CFO)
Yeah. So I guess I'll start. So, yeah, just to clarify your question, negative free cash flow, right? So our operating cash flow is actually positive, almost $100 million in this cycle, which I think is very, very impressive. So the dynamic really is the CapEx. So as we kind of entered into the year, we talked about the improvements that we made in our age of fleet targets, right? And that we'd continue some of those actions. We talked about the growth that we expected in Dedicated and Intermodal tractors would become more efficient as the quarter has come through, and that's really what's allowed us to reduce our CapEx guidance as it relates to tractor growth going forward.
But as Jim said, we want to make sure that as we become more and more disciplined, we're still positioning ourselves for the recovery. So we're not trying to, you know, cut CapEx that's necessary for our growth. So the dynamic really of a free cash flow is the combination of lower earnings for the first quarter and a continuation on our CapEx strategy.
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Yeah, and this is Jim, to answer the question about international, intermodal, and yes, it is up on a year-over-year basis, but that's really just a function of, you know, to your point, how bad it was a year ago. So it looks more stable, as does the distribution, between East Coast and West Coast, so it's becoming a little bit normalized. And so I wouldn't really say that there's been this growth in international, in terms of taking share from, domestic intermodal. So it's good to see that, a little bit more normalcy. In terms of the ocean carriers and their position, you know, what's still out there is disruption.
There's been a lot of disruption in the world, and, you know, we're one more disruption from the ocean carriers saying, "You know, I want to-- I'm going to need my boxes because I'm going to be taking longer routes," and that pushes even more back to transloading.
Brian Ossenbeck (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay.
Jim Filter (EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics)
Thank you for the question.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. As we have no further questions at this time, we will conclude today's conference call. We thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
