Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 delivered year-over-year improvement across segments, with operating revenues at $1.40B (+6% YoY) and adjusted diluted EPS at $0.16; management reduced full-year EPS guidance to $0.75–$1.00 and net capex to $325–$375M amid tariff-driven and macro uncertainty .
• Versus Wall Street: Q1 EPS modestly beat consensus ($0.16 vs $0.139*), while revenue slightly missed ($1.402B vs $1.410B*); adjusted EBITDA outperformed ($154.8M vs $145.8M*) — driven by Cowan accretion, pricing discipline, and intermodal cost actions .
• Segment performance: Truckload OR improved 130 bps YoY (95.9%) with Dedicated trucks up 27% YoY; Intermodal OR improved 250 bps to 94.7%; Logistics OR improved 70 bps to 97.6% .
• Guidance reset and tariff uncertainty are key stock catalysts near term; management still expects YoY improvement in 2025 but at a tempered pace, highlighting cost containment, asset efficiency and mini-bid dynamics as levers .
• Dividend maintained at $0.095 per share; balance sheet supports opportunistic M&A though not embedded in guidance .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Intermodal margin expansion: OR improved 250 bps YoY to 94.7% on 4% volume growth and lower rail-related costs from optimization and cost containment; operating income nearly doubled to $13.8M (+97% YoY) .
• Dedicated scale and accretion: Average Dedicated trucks rose 27% YoY (8,543), with Truckload OR improving 130 bps YoY to 95.9%; management cited Cowan’s immediately accretive contribution and $20–$30M synergy potential at maturity .
• Pricing discipline and productivity: Q1 adjusted OR improved 90 bps YoY to 96.5%, supported by contract renewals, cost containment, and productivity actions across segments .

Quotes:

• “We are following a framework… optimize capital allocation… Dedicated, Intermodal and Brokerage & Logistics… Cowan contributions were immediately accretive, and we expect $20–$30M of synergies at maturity.”
• “Intermodal operating income was $14M, +97% YoY… enhanced operating leverage from network optimization… internal cost reduction actions.”

What Went Wrong

• Guidance cut on macro/trade policy: FY25 adjusted EPS lowered to $0.75–$1.00 (from $0.90–$1.20) and net capex to $325–$375M (from $400–$450M) due to tariff uncertainty, moderating price/volume, and tempered seasonality .
• Network headwinds: Truckload Network volumes declined; owner-operator capacity stress slowed the shift to a more variable cost model; management expects more moderate pricing improvements and lower capacity growth than prior outlook .
• Revenue slightly below consensus: Operating revenues of $1.402B trailed consensus $1.410B*; spot price moderation and mini-bid dynamics pressured near-term revenue trajectories *.

Financial Results

Enterprise performance vs prior periods

Segment breakdown – revenues and operating income

Note: Revenues rows above reflect segment revenues excluding fuel surcharge as disclosed; enterprise operating revenues include fuel surcharge and eliminations .

KPIs

Actual vs Wall Street consensus (Q1 2025)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO: “Dedicated averaged over 8,500 trucks… up 27%… Truckload earnings improved nearly 70% year-over-year… We will be taking out trucks as a result of our asset efficiency actions… net truck growth is projected to be lower than originally expected.”
• CFO: “Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 is $0.75 to $1.00… net CapEx $325M to $375M… we considered trade policy, increased economic uncertainty, contract renewal improvements, asset efficiency, cost containment… expectations tempered.”
• CEO on Intermodal and bids: “We are pleased with increased volume allocations… intermodal rates remained largely flat year-over-year.”
• CFO on balance sheet/capex: “Cost of equipment impacted by current trade policy… partial offset from improved equipment sale proceeds… balance sheet positions us to act opportunistically on inorganic growth.”

Q&A Highlights

• Tariff and import deceleration: ~15–25% of Intermodal tied to imports; expected drop in volume offset by new wins; discussed bullwhip potential if imports restart with lower capacity .
• Dedicated churn and margins: Elevated churn near term; pipeline offsets churn; margins maintained within return profiles; efficiency actions (slip seating, tractor sharing) reduce net tractor growth .
• Pricing moderation and mini-bids: Truckload pricing low-to-mid single digits with moderation; management walking from uneconomic volume to preserve flexibility for mini-allocations .
• Capex reduction drivers: Volume moderation and tariff-driven equipment cost increases; strategy prioritizes Intermodal/Dedicated tractors; gains on sale assumptions only “a few pennies” .
• Autonomous trucking: Active lanes with Aurora (safety driver in); monitoring commercialization opportunities .

Estimates Context

• Q1 2025: EPS beat ($0.16 vs $0.139*), revenue slight miss ($1.402B vs $1.410B*), adjusted EBITDA beat ($154.8M vs $145.8M*). Given lowered FY25 EPS guidance, consensus EPS ranges are likely to reset downward and reflect more muted pricing/volume trajectories and seasonality. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Intermodal margin expansion and Dedicated scale provided the backbone of the quarter; discipline on pricing and dray optimization drove sustainable improvements despite flattish rates — supports medium-term margin recovery .
• Guidance reset is the key stock narrative: a prudent rebase to $0.75–$1.00 EPS and lower capex acknowledges tariff uncertainty and moderating price/volume; near-term sentiment likely tied to import trends and timing of new awards .
• Network truck recovery is slower: expect moderated pricing improvements and lower capacity growth; owner-operator pressure slows variable-cost pivot — maintain cautious stance on Network contribution near term .
• Mexico/cross-border and rail partnerships (CSX/UP/CPKC) are differentiators that can offset trade volatility and support volume resilience; watch implementation cadence of recent awards in Q2/Q3 .
• Cost automation (AI/digital assistants) and $40M enterprise savings targets underpin adjusted OR improvements and earnings resilience through the cycle; monitor execution against targets .
• Capital discipline remains intact: capex aligned to returns and growth areas; balance sheet supports opportunistic M&A not embedded in guidance — potential optionality if market dynamics shift .
• Trading lens: Near-term catalysts include tariff developments, mini-bid outcomes, Intermodal mix/turns, and Dedicated pipeline realization; EPS beats alongside revenue misses suggest margin levers are working — but top-line sensitivity persists .

Citations: Company press release and 8-K for Q1 2025 **[1692063_d39c04723f6f40d0bb878d93e6523262_0]** **[1692063_d39c04723f6f40d0bb878d93e6523262_12]** **[1692063_0001692063-25-000037_a2025q1exhibit991earnings.htm:0]** **[1692063_0001692063-25-000037_sndr-20250501.htm:2]**; Dividend press release **[1692063_e48cd4cae8d0439baecaa0e37c42380f_0]**; Q4 2024 press release **[1692063_1a47a422733f4400b9287b1457595449_0]** **[1692063_1a47a422733f4400b9287b1457595449_17]**; Q3 2024 press release **[1692063_bb2cfe29b3a64800961c75243abc1529_0]** **[1692063_bb2cfe29b3a64800961c75243abc1529_19]**; Earnings call transcript Q1 2025 **[1692063_SNDR_3424739_0]** **[1692063_SNDR_3424739_27]**. 
Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus metrics marked with *.