Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Projected 9% annual retail electric sales growth at Georgia Power from 2025 to 2028, driven mainly by data centers, which represent around 80% of the emerging load. This significant growth underpins the company's long-term electricity sales forecast.
- Strong financial metrics improving annually, with FFO/debt expected to reach mid-16% towards 17% over the next five years, supporting credit ratings and financial strength, even with increased capital deployment.
- Continued modest dividend growth expected, providing attractive returns to shareholders, with the company committed to maintaining a dividend growth trajectory, despite high capital expenditure plans.
- Southern Company's projected 9% annual electric sales growth from 2025 to 2028 relies heavily on data centers, which represent 80% of this emerging load, raising concerns about over-dependence on a single industry.
- The company's FFO-to-debt ratio was 14% in 2023, below the targeted 17%, and is expected to improve slowly due to incremental capital expenditures and regulatory lag, potentially impacting credit metrics.
- Southern Company plans to issue approximately $350 million of equity annually to finance increasing capital expenditures, which may lead to shareholder dilution and impact earnings per share growth.
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Vogtle Unit 4 Completion
Q: Will Vogtle Unit 4 meet April completion, impact if delayed?
A: Management expects Unit 4 to be completed during the second quarter, with initial criticality achieved and syncing to the grid later this month. They have several weeks of margin to meet the April objective. Any delay beyond April would have an approximate $0.03 per month impact on earnings, but they have flexibility within their $0.10 guidance range to mitigate this. -
Georgia Load Growth
Q: How does Georgia's load growth affect earnings and rates?
A: Georgia is experiencing unprecedented 9% annual sales growth, mainly from data centers (about 80% of new load). Management views this growth as an opportunity to put downward pressure on customer rates, expecting rate decreases due to additional sales and customer growth. They remain conservative in forecasts and see potential for upward revisions. -
Increased Capital Expenditure
Q: What's driving increased CapEx and how will it be financed?
A: The company added $5 billion to the capital plan to support Georgia's growth and new resources proposed in the IRP. They plan to finance this with approximately 35-40% equity, adding around $350 million in equity annually through internal programs like the DRIP and 401(k). Additional equity needs may be met through an ATM program. -
FFO-to-Debt Metrics
Q: What's the outlook for FFO-to-debt metrics post-Vogtle?
A: FFO-to-debt was 14% in 2023 and is expected to improve by over 100 basis points in 2024 with Vogtle Unit 4 in service. The company projects metrics to reach mid-16% towards 17% over time, improving each year despite incremental capital deployment. -
Dividend Growth Outlook
Q: Will dividend growth accelerate after Vogtle completion?
A: Management expects to maintain the current dividend growth of $0.08 per share annually, or just below 3%, for the foreseeable future. This helps efficiently finance growth and reduce the payout ratio into the 60% range. -
Nuclear PTCs Inclusion
Q: Are nuclear Production Tax Credits included in the outlook?
A: The company has not factored any cash flow from nuclear PTCs into its outlook. Any potential benefits would flow to customers and not affect earnings or credit metrics. -
Reactor Coolant Pumps
Q: Any risks from reactor coolant pump issues at Vogtle?
A: They've identified and addressed the issue with a reactor coolant pump by replacing it and testing all other pumps. They believe there are no similar issues with other pumps and are confident in their performance. -
Earnings Growth Impact
Q: Does strong load growth lead to higher earnings growth?
A: While load growth is significant, management remains conservative in earnings growth estimates of 5% to 7%. Factors like higher interest expenses and investments to serve peak demand temper the immediate impact on earnings. -
Regulatory Approvals
Q: How will upcoming regulatory decisions affect the capital plan?
A: The company included about 60% of proposed resources in the capital plan ahead of the April IRP decision. Depending on regulatory outcomes, the capital plan may be updated, potentially increasing capital expenditures. -
Rate Base Growth Sufficiency
Q: Is 6% rate base growth sufficient for earnings targets?
A: Management feels comfortable achieving earnings growth within the 5% to 7% range with the current 6% rate base growth. They consider their forecasts conservative and achievable despite incremental equity issuance.