Sony Group - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

The time has come to begin the announcement of consolidated financial results of Sony Group Corporation. I'll be serving as master of ceremonies, Okada of Corporate Communications. First, Mr. Totoki, President and COO and CFO, will explain to you the FY 2022 consolidated results and FY 2023 consolidated results forecast, followed by Q&A. We are scheduled to have a total of 70 minutes. Now, Mr. Totoki, please.

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Today, I will explain the following. Consolidated sales for FY 2022 were JPY 11,539.8 billion, and consolidated operating income was JPY 1,208.2 billion, both reaching record highs. Income before income taxes was JPY 1,180.3 billion, and net income attributable to Sony Group Corporation stockholders was JPY 937.1 billion.

Consolidated operating cash flow, excluding the financial services segment, was JPY 415.5 billion, primarily due to an increase in working capital. Results for FY 2022 by segment are shown on this slide. The cash flow results by segment are shown here. I will explain the full year consolidated results forecast for FY 2023. We have decided to disclose the actual results and forecast for Adjusted EBITDA on a consolidated basis, which is a group KPI for the current mid-range plan, and Adjusted OIBDA by segment, which is a metric that adds back a portion of depreciation and amortization expenses to adjusted operating income. Please see page 24 of your material for the methods of calculating these metrics.

For FY 2023, we forecast sales of JPY 11,500 billion, operating income of JPY 1,170 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA of JPY 1,750 billion. The consolidated operating cash flow forecast, excluding the financial service segment, is expected to increase significantly year-on-year to JPY 1,250 billion, mainly as a result of a decrease in working capital. The FY 2023 results forecast by segment is shown here. Now I will move to an overview of each business segment. First is the game and network services segment. FY 2022 sales were JPY 3,644.6 billion, mainly due to the impact of foreign exchange rates and increased sales of PlayStation 5 hardware.

Operating income was JPY 250 billion, primarily due to an increase in software development expenses and the recording of acquisition-related expenses, despite the impact of increased sales of first-party software and improved profitability of hardware. For FY 2023, we forecast sales to be JPY 3,900 billion, operating income to be JPY 270 billion, and Adjusted OIBDA forecast to be JPY 365 billion. Expenses related to acquisitions since FY 2022, including Bungie Inc., that will impact operating income for the current fiscal year, are expected to increase approximately 20% year-on-year to be JPY 65 billion. Last quarter, PS5 hardware sell-in reached 6.3 million units, a record high for a PS console for the Q4, and 19.1 million units for the full fiscal year of FY 2022.

Distribution inventories have also renormalized, and we are now able to deliver PS5 to customers without waiting almost all over the world. In addition, the positive impact of increased PS5 sell-in has begun to appear in engagement metrics, with dollar-based third-party software sales exceeding the same month of the previous fiscal year in February and March. Moreover, the number of monthly active users for PS as a whole increased 2.3 million accounts year-on-year in March. Since it takes about one to two months from the time hardware is shipped until the effects of improved engagement becomes apparent, we will pay close attention to engagement metrics for this quarter and reflect the results in our future forecast as appropriate.

We aim to continuously accelerate penetration of PS5 and aim for PS5 sell-in units for the current fiscal year to be 25 million units, the highest ever for any PS console in history. As for software, we are continuing to strengthen and expand our first-party titles. God of War Ragnarök, which we released in November last year, won the most award in six categories at the 2023 BAFTA Games Awards. With this huge hit, sales of first-party software for the full fiscal year of FY 2022, including Bungie, grew significantly, with dollar-based sales increasing by 41% year-over-year. We also planning to release a major title, Marvel's Spider-Man 2, this fiscal year. We aim to continue creating new IP, rolling out catalog titles for PC, and strengthening live game service development. Next is music segment.

FY 2022 sales were JPY 1,380.6 billion, mainly due to the impact of foreign exchange rates and an increase in streaming revenue. Operating income was JPY 263.1 billion. In addition to the recording the highest ever operating income for this segment, operating income was the highest of all six business segments.

In FY 2022, the profit contribution of visual media and platform was mid-teens percent of the operating income of this segment. For FY 2023, sales forecast is JPY 1,410 billion. Operating income, JPY 265 billion. Adjusted OIBDA to be JPY 325 billion. Streaming revenue in the Q4 increased 23% year-on-year for recorded music, and 29% for music publishing, 8% and 13% increase on dollar basis. In recorded music and music publishing, we aim to continue to grow faster and maintain a higher growth rate and profit margin with our influential artists, discover and nurture new talent, expand our line-up through The Orchard and AWAL, and grow business in emerging markets. We have improved our ability to be continuously create hits in recorded music.

An average of 43 songs ranked in the Spotify Weekly Global Top 100 in FY 2022, increasing our market share significantly year-on-year. Miley Cyrus released Flowers in January, it has become a huge hit, recording the highest number of streams in a week on Spotify. The pictures. Primarily due to the forex impact, FY 2022 sales were JPY 1,369.4 billion. Operating income was JPY 119.3 billion compared to the previous fiscal year, in which a JPY 70 billion gain from the transfer of business. For FY 2023, sales forecast is JPY 1,520 billion. Operating income, JPY 120 billion. Adjusted OIBDA to be JPY 165 billion. Sales to increase mainly due to an increase in the number of theatrical releases and growth in Crunchyroll and our businesses in India.

Despite higher sales in media networks, operating income is expected to increase only slightly, primarily due to increased marketing costs and from the lower sales from having fewer tentpole films. To maximize IP value over the long term as an independent studio, our business structure could steadily generate operating income on the segment above JPY 100 billion. In the U.S. since March, other studios and major video distribution service providers have been releasing large-scale movies, theaters is expected to be revitalized. In TV productions, with increased demand for low-budget product, we are strengthening our production capabilities by establishing SPT Nonfiction, led by Industrial Media, which was acquired in April last year, which has nine production companies. On March 4th, Crunchyroll Anime Awards were held in Japan, about 18 million votes were cast from fans in more than 200 countries and regions.

In 2021, 48% of the JPY 2.7 trillion global Japanese anime market was outside of Japan, anime is growing into a global form of entertainment. Amidst this growth, the number of paying subscribers of Crunchyroll, a world-leading anime-only DTC, surpassed 10.7 million as of the end of March. Growth potential comes from the high growth of our business in emerging markets, we are deepening engagement with fan community, such as the overseas distribution of anime movies and through the sales of merchandise. Business performance of Crunchyroll has grown significantly by media network sales and is contributing to the profits despite amortization of costs with acquisition. Next is the ET&S segment. FY 2022 sales were JPY 2,476 billion, mainly due to the impact of forex.

Despite a decrease in TV sales, operating income was JPY 179.5 billion, primarily due to the impact of decreased TV sales. For FY 2023, we expect sales to be JPY 2,380 billion. Operating income, JPY 180 billion. Adjusted OIBDA to be JPY 280 billion. In FY 2022, despite the severe business environment, we achieved profit almost in line with the initial plan for the entire segment through operations and controlling costs. For end of fiscal year inventory, we further narrowed down our January plan, mainly in TV, and finished at a level almost on par with the end of FY 2021. In FY 2023, risks such as a more severe economic slowdown are expected, so we have lowered our sales forecast.

As for operating income, we expect to maintain the level of previous fiscal year by reducing fixed costs in TV and smartphones. Demand continues to be trending well for digital cameras and primarily through the introduction of competitive products. We plan to maximize profit opportunities. In order to strengthen the business structure, we are promoting a two-axis management to promote growth and maintain profitability of existing business. Therefore, we disclose the actual annual sales of the profit growth axis in the supplemental information. We plan to explain the initiatives in the growth axis at the next business segment meeting.

Next is the I&SS segment. FY 2022 sales were JPY 1,402.2 billion, mainly due to the impact of forex and an increased sales of image sensory sensors for mobile devices. Despite increased expenses, operating income was JPY 212.2 billion, mainly due to the favorable impact of forex and increased sales. For FY 2023, we forecast sales to be JPY 1,600 billion, operating income to be JPY 200 billion, and Adjusted OIBDA to be JPY 445 billion. The smartphone product market in the Q4, mainly in China, has deteriorated slightly from the forecast at the time of our previous earnings. We have to anticipate that the forecast for demand for sensors this fiscal year will start at a lower level than anticipated.

Based on the recognition that the business environment for the current fiscal year will be extremely unstable, we have factored into the operating income forecast for this fiscal year the continued slump in demand in the first half of fiscal year and the risk of increased costs from the mass production of new products. On the other hand, even in such a severe environment, our company is driving the trend toward large, larger-size mobile sensors, higher image quality and performance, and flagship models of Chinese manufacturers equipped with our large format 1-inch sensor are being released to the market continuously. Our image sensor business has significantly outperformed our competitors, and our global market share on a value basis has grown significantly from 44% in FY 2021 to 51% in FY 2022.

By launching sophisticated, highly differentiated technologies, we aim to further solidify our leading position in high value-added products. By doing so, we aim to steadily build a business foundation that will accelerate growth again when the market for final product recovers, which is expected in FY 2024 and beyond. Next is the Financial Services segment. In FY 2022, Financial Services revenues were JPY 1,454.5 billion due to a decrease in net gains and losses on investments in the separate accounts at Sony Life Insurance. Operating income was JPY 223.9 billion, primarily due to the recording of gains on the sales of real estate at Sony Life and the impact of recovery of funds associated with the unauthorized withdrawal. From this fiscal year, we will apply the new accounting standard IFRS 17, which pertains to insurance contracts.

We plan to show the detailed impact on results associated with the change at the next earnings announcement. Financial services revenue is expected to decrease significantly, primarily due to the impact of the surrender benefit of insurance premium income no longer being recorded as a revenue, whereas the entire amount was recorded as revenue in the past. Concerning this impact, financial services revenue for FY 2023 is expected to be JPY 870 billion. The operating income forecast is JPY 180 billion, and Adjusted OIBDA is forecasted to be JPY 205 billion. Lastly, I will explain the progress of the fourth mid-range plan.

Three-year cumulative Adjusted EBITDA, which is the fourth mid-range plan's KPI, has progressed significantly beyond the initial plan, mainly in the music and picture segments, and is currently expected to be JPY 5 trillion or 16% higher than the target of JPY 4.3 trillion. As you can see, we continue to see steady growth every fiscal year since FY 2020. Regarding capital allocation, we have lowered our forecast for operating cash flow for the cumulative three years, the primary source of capital to JPY 2.5 trillion from the original plan of JPY 3.1 trillion, mainly to reflect an increase in working capital in the G&NS and I&SS segments. Capital expenditure is expected to increase for the initial plan to JPY 1.9 trillion with JPY 0.4 trillion mainly allocated to image sensor capital expenditure and server investments in corporate R&D and G&NS.

In terms of strategic investments, since we decided to increase working capital and capital expenditures, and in consideration of the current M&A market environment, we decided to reduce the amount from the initial plan of JPY 2 trillion to JPY 1.8 trillion. To grow over the mid- to long-term, we will continue to invest. However, in the short-term, we aim to carefully assess the valuations and timing of investments given the recent changes in the market environment. We plan to compensate for the decrease in operating cash flow due to the increase in working capital, mainly through short-term borrowing and to maintain a total allocation of JPY 4 trillion. We have positioned this fiscal year as the year to steadily achieve the targets of the current mid-range plan while emphasizing the management of immediate risks at a time when the business environment is unstable.

In the next slide-Mid-range plan, we aim to achieve a balance between strongly emphasizing mid to long-term business growth and profit growth during the period of the plan. We aim to prepare for this during this fiscal year and show the content at the beginning of the next fiscal year. Together with the Sony Group's management team and employees around the world, we aim to create a positive spiral of growing our business, attracting talented people, increasing corporate value, and giving back to society. That is all for my explanation.

Operator (participant)

It was presentation by Mr. Totoki. After this, from 4:20, we have Q&A from the media. From 4:45, Q&A from investors and analysts, and we allocate about 20 minutes each for Q&A sessions. Those of you who have made registration for questions in advance, please be connected to the designated telephone number. Also, as to the way of asking questions and matters to be paid attention to, please confirm with the invitation letter in advance. Those of you who have not registered for questions in advance, you can listen to the Q&A session via webcast. You're kindly requested to wait for a few more minutes before we start the Q&A session.

Thank you for waiting. We will now begin the Q&A session with media. Those people who respond will be Mr. Hiroki Totoki, President, COO, and CFO, Ms.Naomi Matsuoka, Senior Vice President, Mr. Sadahiko Hayakawa, Senior Vice President. We'll begin the Q&A session. I would like to ask you to limit your questions to two per person. If you have a question, please press asterisk followed by number one. The first question is Mr. Tsutsumi from Nikkei Shimbun. Mr. Tsutsumi, the floor is yours.

Speaker 11

Tsutsumi from Nikkei. I have two questions, if I may. The first question about the growth going forward in the short term and medium term. This fiscal year, ROIC for each business the ROIC going to come down. There is the increase in inventory and other factors are there. When would you expect to see increase in ROIC again? For each business, there may be differences, especially for games and entertainment. Can you explain what is the prospect going forward?

Specifically, what will be the drivers for improving ROIC? Can you please elaborate on that? That's my first question. Secondly, in the medium to long term, growth, mobility and metaverse are the key. In this area, possible risks and hurdles and challenges, how do you look at the risks and hurdles, for example, competitive environment? What is your outlook? That's my first question, and second question. Short term, you'll be financing with borrowing. On excluding financial services and the net debt, is this a temporary measure or Totoki-san became president and you will be changing the rules for the discipline and you'll be using more of the debt borrowing? What is direction going forward?

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Thank you for your questions. First, your first question, ROIC. Entertainment, mainly about entertainment, that's your question. With regards to ROIC, FY 2022, as you know, especially in game, PS5 inventory has increased. Working capital increased as a result, which resulted in deterioration of ROIC. That is a major point. Basically, PS5 hardware sales increased, which resulted in decrease in inventory. This will be working positively for ROIC, especially acquisition-related expenses in FY 2022 and FY 2023, JPY 50 billion to JPY 60 billion of expense.

Impact for will be much less in FY 2024 and onwards, which will also be a factor to increase ROIC. For music, M&A and catalog acquisition had impact upon deterioration of ROIC. In the medium to long term, M&A is sure to contribute to growth. The catalog, having catalog is indeed enhancing and strengthening our position in the industry. Therefore, for ROIC, we look at the medium term perspective, and I believe that it is going to come to optimum level. As for the pictures, a recovery from the COVID-19 and reopening of the economy. Theatrical release will increase and production will also be increased. Production expense increases, ROIC will go down. With the theatrical release, profit will be generated and ROIC will go down again.

We will be growing in the medium term. Mobility and metaverse. What possible risks are there and what are the hurdles, was your question. With regards to mobility, we are in the mid of development, so at this point in time, we do not, we are not at a stage where we should be discussing risks or concerns, but opportunities are huge. Industry is transforming. It is a time of transformation. We take advantage of this time, and with joint venture with Honda Motor, we are going to show results. With regards to metaverse, the expectation is higher than no one is expecting. In the medium to long term, with the evolution and development of technology, at some point in the future, the market will blossom.

More than anything else, we are a company which is centering around entertainment and 3DCG rendering related metaverse. We have technology, which is our strength. We in line with the growth of the market. In a timely fashion, we are going to maximize our technology. Net debt. Excluding financial services net debt situation, debt equity balance is basically the balance with the rating. On that point, I would like to invite Mr. Hayakawa to make some supplementary comment.

Sadahiko Hayakawa (SVP of IR and In Charge of Finance)

Thank you for your question. First, balance sheet net debt you mentioned. As of the end of March, the consolidated excluding financial services, JPY 590 billion. As Totoki-san explained, in short term, PlayStation 5 production increased, which resulted in increase in working capital.

This is PS5 is to be penetrated widespread for growth. With intention, we are increasing working capital. As Totoki said in his speech, for these, we finance with the short-term borrowing. Next fiscal year or this fiscal year, operating cash flow is JPY 1.25 trillion. From Q3 this fiscal year, we are going to convert inventory into cash and manage cash. Now, about fiscal discipline. Basically, our fiscal discipline remains unchanged. We have a strong financial basis. For example, one of the discipline, the ratio, capital to the shareholders is 50.3%. We have strong financial foundation. While maintaining fiscal discipline, we are making investments for growth. The growth investment and the fiscal discipline and efficiency of balance sheet, we hit the right balance and come up with a capital financial policy.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We would like to invite next question please. From The Toyo Keizai, Umegaki-san, please.

Speaker 12

From Toyo Keizai. I hope you can hear my voice, yes? I have two questions. The first question is due to the macroeconomic situation change. For the ET&S, I think you have referred. In the European country, there have been a slowdown in the economy and therefore due to the reason there are lots of companies providing a conservative forecast and therefore how it's been incorporated in FY 2023 forecast. That is my first question. The second question is that the outside from the financial results, because there have been changes in the top management of the financial company and therefore could you make a comment on this?

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Thank you very much for the question. For the first question, talking about the macroeconomic condition being changed and looking at the whole, the business environment, over here, there have been a financial restraint. Also there, due to this Ukraine issue and also the global economy disruption. Those conditions have not changed from the last year. Therefore, I don't have any optimistic forecast.

However, in advanced countries, and especially in the European countries, I believe there will be a slowdown. Also for the emerging countries like China. Because due to the reopening of the pandemic, there is a forecast for the recovery. However, my gut feeling is that there is still in transparency, and therefore, that is a global condition. However, for our business, from our business perspective, the U.S. economic condition is going to give a direct impact, and also there is a great impact to the global economy, and therefore we focus on that U.S. economy. Talking about the. There have been a change of CEO, and our intention for this change is that Mr. Endo is going to assume the CEO position starting from the next term.

Because he had worked in the finance ministry and also the FSA, and therefore he had contributed to the smooth operation of the monetary market. He has a great knowledge. Utilizing his know-how as well as knowledge and experience, we would like to utilizing the corporate governance and sustainability, and also in the global economic condition. He has this great knowledge. Since FY 2020, he had been serving as a senior advisor, giving us advice. This time, we expect him to contribute to this leadership. From the overall decision, we had asked him to assume this position. That is all. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Let us move on to the next question. Nakajima-san from Kyodo News, please.

Speaker 10

This is Nakajima from Kyodo News. Can you hear me? Yes. I have two questions. Regarding PlayStation 5, this fiscal year, 25 million is the target which is the highest ever. Compared to PS1 and 2, is it the highest ever compared to those units? If that is the case, smartphone games is recently very popular, the hardware costs have been going up, prices have been going up. With such a severe environment, is PS5 really popular? What is your take on that? For smartphone games being really popular, the game consoles, what is the, what is going to be the changes in the existence of that?

FY 2023, on a profit basis, this part is going to go down for software. You talked about the increase in software development costs. What is the background of that? Can you specifically share that information with us?

Naomi Matsuoka (SVP of Corporate Planning and Control)

Thank you very much for the question. This is about the games. For this fiscal year, the target for PS5 is 25 million units. The reason is because, compared to the past PS generations, compared to them, in a single fiscal year, 25 million units, if we can achieve that, it will be the highest level ever. The reason why we believe that this is possible, PS4 customers exist now, and the PS4 usage, use them and they switch to PS5. We looked at how much would be switching.

There are customers, new customers also, and we've been looking at that as well. Based on the data, we have put together this forecast. Based on this forecast, we believe that 25 million units within this fiscal year is something that we would be, we believe that we can achieve. Regarding the second question, or rather, what would be the meaning of having these game consoles in the future? Regardless of the times, having some kind of hardware at hand is necessary. The computing power would be at hand, or it could be in the cloud. In the future, that change could happen. In any case, some kind of a client would be necessary to enjoy different games.

With the evolution of technologies and the hardware that matches the times, providing that type of hardware, we create value. Regarding your second question, even though the revenue is going up, why is the profits going down? One is the game development costs are going up, and also from a technical standpoint, the acquisition-related costs is increasing this term. The game development costs is going up because of the following reasons. The first-party software development is going to be strengthened.

The live services will be launched. Intentionally, we are enhancing this part, so that is why the expenses are increasing. That's all.

Operator (participant)

We'd like to move on to the next question. Asaka-san from Nikkei Business, please.

Speaker 11

Asaka from Nikkei Business. Can you hear me?

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Yes, we can hear you.

Speaker 11

Thank you. About, the decrease of operating cashflow. Earlier, you said that the working capital has increased. Can you elaborate more specifically what are the factors which resulted in increase in working capital? Secondly, is this impact temporary, or this will be continuing into this fiscal year, please?

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Thank you. On that question, first, FY 2022 operating cashflow was low level, and the reason for that. Is this going to come return to recover? The conclusion is it is going to recover next year. The details, I'd like to ask Hayakawa-san to explain.

Sadahiko Hayakawa (SVP of IR and In Charge of Finance)

Thank you for your question. Your question about operating cashflow, FY 2023 result, JPY 415.5 billion. Increase in working capital is mainly from game business and image sensor business increase in inventory. Game business, as I mentioned earlier, PlayStation 5 production, they were constrained in production, but the constraint was removed, so we increased production, which resulted increased working capital. Secondly, the movie production cost and cash outflow is there with the production. Under COVID-19, the film production was not as much as possible in the past. In production, marketing expense is incurred, but the theatrical release is not done, so the cashflow outflow was not there during pandemic. But from next, the last fiscal year, normalization occurred.

Increase in working capital and the normalization resulted in increase in theatrical release. As Mr. Totoki said earlier, for this fiscal year, PlayStation 5 will be sold and operating cashflow of JPY 1.25 trillion we are expecting. That's all from me.

Operator (participant)

Due to the time constraint, we would like to invite the last question. Please give us only one question due to the time constraint. Please push the asterisk of the telephone. I think we have no more questions. Therefore, we would like to conclude this Q&A session. Thank you very much. Excuse me. Please wait. From the freelance, Nishida-san, please. Are you able to join, Nishida-san, please? Nishida-san, can you hear us? We would like to conclude this Q&A session. We are going to have the Q&A session with the investors and analysts from 4:45. Thank you. We are going to start Q&A session with investors and analysts. Please wait for a while. Thank you. Thank you very much for waiting.

Moderator (participant)

We would like to start Q&A session with investors and analysts, I'm going to serve as the moderator. My name is Shinji from IR Japan. The respondents are those three people. Please refer to the instruction that have been already sent. Please limit two questions per person. We would like to start Q&A session. If you have any question, please push asterisk, and after that, please push number one. From BofA Securities, Hirakawa-san, please.

Mikio Hirakawa (Senior Analyst)

Thank you very much. This is Hirakawa from BofA Securities. For the sensors and games, and today, according to the presentation, ISS had been risen to 53%, therefore, I think this kind of changing to the large scale has contributed to the improvement to 51%. Are you going to improve more? Talking about the development roadmap with the partners. The second is about the gaming. There have been an increase of the cost for the games and also for the MA cost. 20% increase, so increase of JPY 10 billion. Game development cost, and how much increase was there for the game development cost? Those are the two questions.

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Thank you very much for the question. For the first, for the I&SS market share. As I have mentioned in my presentation, currently, for the smartphone cameras and for the sensors, the large scale centers, and that's driving. We are driving. For the Chinese OEM, there have been a 1-inch sensors. However, thinking about that, in the midterm, we are able to increase our market share in the future. This is the first point. For the second point, for the game and network services, the game development cost and how much increase was there, Matsuoka is going to explain. Matsuoka-san, please.

Naomi Matsuoka (SVP of Corporate Planning and Control)

Talking about the development cost for the games and how much increase was there. Actually speaking, HR costs and also the development costs. Also due to the increase of M&A cost was there. Talking about the HR costs and also the development costs. Within that, the development cost in comparison to previous year, we expect an increase. However, we are going to I think we are able to offset the cost. For the M&A cost the Bungie Inc. For this year, for the full year, we are going to be consolidated, and therefore, that is JPY 12.3 billion increase, and therefore JPY 65 billion. Talking about the sales cost and for the PS5, so we expect more sales of PS5, and therefore, there will be the increase of that cost.

Moderator (participant)

Thank you very much. Moving on to the next question, from JPMorgan Securities, Ayada-san, please.

Junya Ayada (Research Analyst)

Thank you. This is JPMorgan. I also have two questions. First question, regarding games. This term, the operating profit is going to increase by JPY 20 billion. On page 15, there are several items listed up. Can you elaborate a little more on them? Mainly, there are three points. The hardware loss is going to improve. Right now, the yen is JPY 130 to the USD. Is it based on that, or are memory and parts cost going to go down? Are there any factors that would drive the improvements? For the software, the 1st-party software is going to decrease according to your forecast. How about third-party software and other types? For SG&A, you talked about that just now. Last year, it was not really included.

What is the difference between this term and last term for games? Secondly, for image sensors, for Q4 and Q1, if you compare the wafer introduction was slowed down. From your perspective, the smartphone market situation, depending on the regions or North America, depending on the models and channels, and if there's any periods that will receive recoveries, please let us know.

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Thank you very much for your question. Regarding your first question regarding the games, this term compared to the before, the profits will go up by JPY 20 billion, and what is the breakdown of that? First of all, regarding the hardware, there is the forex exchange situation, and also the material cost is also a factor. It's a combination.

With that, we believe that the profit will improve from there. Also, regarding the software, it's a slight increase, but basically, it will be flat. The add-ons is not going to particularly go down with, in our assumption. Regarding the third-party software, maybe we are a little bit careful. In the Q1, we will look at the performance of the Q1 and then review it once again. That was about the software. Also, regarding how it is recognized, from this term, for some software, for some software development costs will be lifted up. The live services is a new service that we will develop and provide. Along with that, the development process has been revisited, and a part will be included in the capital, or it will be capitalized. That's all. Regarding I&SS, excuse me, the smartphone market situation.

Regarding China, we are not optimistic. If we look at the logistical inventory levels, in the Q4, at around February, it went down slightly. In March, it went up again. We believe that we should not be optimistic. The mid to low camera sensors, the inventory levels of our competitors are quite high. We believe that the price will be going down rapidly. Again, we're not optimistic about that. In North America and Asia, the smartphone markets there, especially for the high-end smartphones. In the Q4, compared to the Q4, the situation has weakened slightly. For FY 2023, that is our assumption. Overall, for the smartphone market, we believe that we should not be optimistic. Currently, that is what we believe. Personally, I believe that the recovery would come in in FY 2024.

Junya Ayada (Research Analyst)

That's all.

Moderator (participant)

Thank you very much, Mr. Aida. I'd like to move on to the next question. SMBC Nikko Securities, Katsura-san, please.

Ryosuke Katsura (Senior Analyst)

Thank you. Katsura from SMBC Nikko Securities. Two questions. The first question, cash flow, excluding financial service, you said JPY 1.25 trillion operating cash flow. Investment cash flow, can you please explain as well? Semiconductors, CapEx plan. You are exiting break as compared to last year, so maybe the background is as you have explained. Other than that, if there is key points about the cash flow, please. Investment cash flow. Secondly, related to the operating cash flow inventory. Q3, Q4, you maintained high level. This year, the inventory control, how do you control inventory procurement of materials and forecast? What kind of level of inventory do you have in mind? These are my two questions.

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Thank you very much for your questions. About cash flow, Hayakawa will be responding.

Sadahiko Hayakawa (SVP of IR and In Charge of Finance)

Thank you. About investment cash flow, last fiscal year, investment cash flow, operating cash flow is JPY 400 billion. Cash outflow has increased. The investment cash flow, a bit more than JPY 300 billion increase. Strategic investment, with acquisition of Bungie Inc. increased, and also CapEx was also increased, which resulted in increase in investment cash flow. For this fiscal year, strategic investment, of course, for future growth, we take opportunity. We are exploring opportunities. On the other hand, in view of the current market environment, as Mr. Totoki said in his presentation, we look at valuation and timing. More recently, we are to be more conservative and cautious. That's all from me.

About CapEx, as has been explained, I&SS CapEx is reflected. Inventory control. By each business segment, there are ways of management. With regards to games, for toward the year-end sales, we'll be increasing inventory in the first half, and toward the end of the year, this will be more normalized. ET&S, this fiscal year or the last fiscal year, the result, there were some concerns, but it ended up that we are able to control the inventory very well. For this fiscal year, likewise, we are going to have the conservative sales plan, and appropriate level of inventory is to be maintained and controlled, and we'll continue to do so. I&SS, SS, logics and sensor strategic inventory will be reduced from the Q2 onwards.

Amount of inventory, the sales size will increase, so end of FY 2023, as compared to the end of FY 2022, it is going to be higher. However, the turn of month on a forward basis, then it's going to be appropriate level. We are calculating that it is an appropriate level, and we are going to bring it to the appropriate level. That's all from me.

Ryosuke Katsura (Senior Analyst)

Thank you.

Moderator (participant)

Thank you very much. We'd like to move on to next question. From the Citigroup, Ezawa-san, please.

Kota Ezawa (Analyst)

From Citigroup, Ezawa. I have two questions. The first one is about OIBDA. You're going to start disclosure, and therefore, this is in comparison to EBITDA. What is the difference? Therefore, why you are going to start the disclosure of OIBDA? Also going forward, EBITDA and OIBDA, will there be differences or rather a larger gap between the two? If that is the case, please explain the logic. The second question is about the semiconductor for the new fiscal year operating profit. There have been the reason for the changes of operating income. However, increase of the sales and increase of revenue, however, well, because I think you have listed according to the value of absolute value, and therefore, the sales is JPY 20 billion. However, the absolute value in comparison to others, it's rather small.

Is there any reason behind? Those are the two questions.

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Thank you very much for the question. For the first one, for the OIBDA disclosure. In comparison to EBITDA, well, because it doesn't include outside of the sales, therefore, for the six segments, so.

Outside of the sales, well, because we don't distribute the material, therefore, looking at the segment OIBDA. In comparison to because it's much similar to the EBITDA, whether the gap is going to increase, that's not going to happen in the future. For the time being, for three years, as an important KPI, the consolidated EBITDA. Obviously gives the cumulative three years figure. That had been outlined in the three-year business plan. However, looking at each segment, therefore, naturally, I think it is necessary to explain, therefore, we, at this timing, we are, we decided to disclose the OIBDA. Therefore, well, because this will be an access with the external in basis of the external communication. Talking about I&SS.

With the increase of sales and the impact to the revenue is rather small, so that was a question. Talking about this point. Well, because of course, there will be an increase of revenue. Well, because with the mass production of the new product, there will be more costs required. Therefore, the profitability for FY 2023 will go down. Therefore, taking into this consideration into our forecast.

Kota Ezawa (Analyst)

Yes, thank you. Yes. It's awesome. Thank you very much.

Moderator (participant)

We only have a short time left, the next person will be the last one. From Mizuho Securities, Nakane-san, please. This is Nakane from Mizuho Securities.

Yasuo Nakane (Analyst)

Thank you very much. I have two questions. I would like to understand the assumptions that you're using for this term and the ones that you did not explain. Regarding I&SS, at the end of the fiscal year, the production capacity assumptions and the inventories are going to increase. What is the operations or movements after Q2? Totoki-san talked about this earlier. You have the mid to low inventories. Till the last term, the mid to low was also something that you were going after proactively, and I'm sure that you still have some inventory left.

Last term and this term, you will be focusing on the high end this term. For the remaining inventory, how about the risk of the valuation? Is that also something that you have already reflected? Is that something that we should not be concerned about? Second question is about HNS. The TV is improving and R&D costs are going to go up. The TV and audio/video and cameras, mobile and others, if we look at these categories, TV is going to go into the black from red. How is it going to improve? Or how is it going to deteriorate? It could be qualitative if you can.

Hiroki Totoki (President, COO, and CFO)

Thank you very much for the questions. Regarding I&SS, at the end of the fiscal year, what is the assumption for the production capacity? Regarding this. One moment, please. It's in the handouts. For FY 2022, in the Q4, average capacity for the facilities would be JPY 133,000 per month. In the it will be JPY 160,000 per month in terms of the introduction in. For FY 2023 Q1, JPY 137,000. Then JPY 127,000 for what will be fed in. Also, focusing on the high end, that part is not going to change. Regarding the mid to low inventory valuation reduction risk, as of now, we don't think that we will go to that point where we would have to reduce the valuation.

Regarding the strategy of inventory, the general purpose items sold. So we don't believe that it would go to that point. Regarding ASP, mid to low for this term, the situation is going to become severe. We believe that there is a possibility of that. So that's the overall big picture. And also, regarding ETS, in each category, regarding the profits, to talk about this qualitatively, for the digital cameras in FY twenty-three, the revenue will go up, and the profits will slightly go down. And also, for TVs, the revenue will go down, uh, significantly, and the profit, uh, stability situation will improve. And latter half of last year we struggled, so this term, it is a conservative, uh, sales situation. And also, and for other categories, headphones, the revenue will go down, profits will go up.

The high-end, high-value, models, added value, models is where we're going to focus on. Also for mobile, the revenues will go down and profit stability situation will improve. The units will be narrowed down and fixed costs will go down, and we will try to improve profitability. For the different categories, from a qualitative basis, that is what we believe would happen. That's all.

Moderator (participant)

Thank you very much, Mr. Nakane. With this, we would like to end the financial result announcement for the Sony Group. Thank you very much.