Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong Leadership Transition with Strategic Focus: Incoming CEO Martina Cheung plans to connect the dots across divisions through a new Chief Client Officer role, aiming to enhance cross-selling opportunities and unlock growth potential by leveraging SPGI's vast data assets.
- Commitment to Innovation and AI Adoption: SPGI is integrating Generative AI into products, leveraging its Kensho platform and extensive high-quality data to improve offerings and customer engagement. They've seen significant momentum in AI initiatives, both internally with the Spark Assist tool and externally with customers expressing strong interest.
- Disciplined Portfolio Optimization and Confidence in Value Creation: SPGI continues to optimize its portfolio, making strategic divestitures and focusing on areas with the highest potential for growth and value creation, demonstrating a disciplined approach to delivering shareholder value.
- Elevated cancellations in the Market Intelligence division, particularly among smaller customers, are negatively impacting growth, and this trend is expected to continue through at least the end of the year.
- Pricing pressure, tightening of budgets, and longer sales cycles in key end markets are causing challenges, making it difficult to predict when a recovery in the Market Intelligence segment might occur.
- Ongoing portfolio optimization and leadership changes, including recent divestitures, suggest challenges in achieving steady execution within the Market Intelligence business.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | +16% | Strong performance across Ratings, Indices, and Commodity Insights drove increased subscription and transaction revenues. The prior-year period was also affected by the divestiture of Engineering Solutions, making year-over-year comparability more favorable. |
Market Intelligence | +6% | Growth came from Enterprise Solutions and steady subscription demand, partially offset by softness in financial services spending. Last year’s performance was affected by uncertainty around sustainability solutions, but new product launches and integration of past acquisitions boosted results. |
Ratings | +36% | Transaction revenue surged due to higher corporate bond and bank loan issuance. In the prior year, issuance levels were comparatively subdued, making the current period’s 63% increase in transaction revenue a primary growth driver. |
Commodity Insights | +9% | Price assessments and energy data continued to grow, aided by demand for market intelligence services related to energy transition. Last year included a strategic pivot to more recurring revenue, setting a foundation for this year’s revenue gains. |
Mobility | +9% | Expanded CARFAX products and strong dealer revenue underpinned growth. The acquisition of Market Scan in the prior year contributed incrementally. Softness in recall-related services last year has eased, helping the segment maintain growth momentum. |
Indices | +18% | Asset-linked fees increased due to higher AUM in index-linked ETFs and funds. In the previous period, market volatility created moderate inflows, whereas this year’s continued surge from active to passive investing pushed asset-linked fees up by 16%. |
U.S. Revenue | +17% | The Ratings transaction surge and steady growth in subscription businesses like Market Intelligence pushed U.S. revenue higher. Prior-year comps were lower due to muted issuance activity; this year’s refinancing wave added a substantial boost. |
European Region | +16% | Stronger issuance and subscription growth helped offset softer activity in structured finance last year. Also, improvements in macro conditions supported higher demand for credit ratings and data products compared to a more cautious environment in the prior period. |
Asia | +13% | Recovery in cross-border financing and improved market sentiments contributed to higher uptake of ratings and data. Last year’s region-specific economic uncertainties dampened demand, so the relative improvement this year is notable but still subject to ongoing market fluctuations. |
Rest of World | +8% | Modest gains in subscriptions and data services reflect broad-based but slower growth outside major markets. The prior year had comparatively lower revenues, so the current uptick partly reflects recovery in smaller regions even though growth remains muted. |
Operating Income (EBIT) | +33% | Driven by higher revenue and strict expense control, benefiting from operational efficiencies not fully realized in the prior year. Last year’s EBIT was impacted by one-time costs and the disposition of Engineering Solutions, which weighed on margins. |
Net Income | +71% | Revenue expansion and improved margins propelled net income higher. The prior year was affected by a loss on dispositions, whereas no comparable loss impacted this year’s net income, making the year-over-year difference more pronounced. |
EPS (Diluted) | +34% | Reflects net income growth and a slight reduction in shares outstanding due to share repurchases. In the prior period, EPS was comparatively lower, influenced by higher expenses and disposition-related items, accentuating this year’s increase. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Revenue Growth | FY 2024 | 8% to 10% | 11.5% to 12.5% | raised |
Adjusted Margin Expansion | FY 2024 | 125 to 175 bps | 200 to 250 bps | raised |
Adjusted Diluted EPS | FY 2024 | $14.35 to $14.60 | $15.10 to $15.30 | raised |
Adjusted Free Cash Flow | FY 2024 | $4.7B | $5.2B | raised |
Billed Issuance Growth | FY 2024 | no prior guidance | 50% | no prior guidance |
Market Intelligence Revenue Growth | FY 2024 | 6% to 7.5% | 6% to 6.5% | lowered |
Market Intelligence Margins | FY 2024 | 33% to 34% | 32.5% to 33% | lowered |
Ratings Revenue Growth | FY 2024 | 14% to 16% | 26% to 28% | raised |
Ratings Margins | FY 2024 | no numeric prior guidance | 61% to 62% | no prior guidance |
Commodity Insights Revenue Growth | FY 2024 | no numeric prior guidance | 9% to 9.5% | no prior guidance |
Commodity Insights Margins | FY 2024 | no numeric prior guidance | 46.5% to 47% | no prior guidance |
Mobility Revenue Growth | FY 2024 | no numeric prior guidance | 8% to 8.5% | no prior guidance |
Mobility Margins | FY 2024 | 38.5% to 39.5% | 38.5% to 39% | lowered |
Indices Revenue Growth | FY 2024 | 10% to 12% | 13% to 15% | raised |
Indices Margins | FY 2024 | no numeric prior guidance | 69.5% to 70.5% | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue Growth | Q3 2024 | 8% to 10% for FY 2024 | 16% YoY increase (from US$3,084MIn Q3 2023 to US$3,576MIn Q3 2024) | Beat |
Operating Margin | Q3 2024 | 125 to 175 bps expansion | Expanded ~530 bps (from ~34.8%In Q3 2023 to ~40.1% (1,434/3,576)In Q3 2024) | Beat |
Diluted EPS | Q3 2024 | US$14.35 to US$14.60 for FY 2024(implied YoY growth guidance) | US$3.12In Q3 2024 vs. US$2.33In Q3 2023 (∼34% YoY increase, outpacing guidance rate) | Beat |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Market Intelligence | Q2 2024: Revenue +7%, Desktop +6% (or +2% ex-Visible Alpha), softness in Financial Services, margin guidance lowered to 33–34%. Q1 2024: Recurring revenue +7%, facing cyclical headwinds but confident in secular tailwinds. Q4 2023: Revenue +9%, some cancellations among smaller clients, 2024 guidance of 6–7.5% growth with 33.5–34.5% margins. | Persistent cancellations (small customers), pricing pressure, and elongated sales cycles continue. Introduced 23 new products featuring Generative AI. Early signs of recovery in select areas, but broader environment still uncertain. | Consistent headwinds (cancellations, pricing). Ongoing product innovation (new AI-driven solutions). Cautiously optimistic sentiment persists as the division navigates Financial Services softness. |
Private Market Solutions | Q2 2024: +26% revenue, strong demand for debt/bank loan/CLO ratings; private market Ratings +70%. Q1 2024: +16% revenue growth, part of $350M synergy plan, launched 25 new synergy products. Q4 2023: +18% year-over-year ($113M in Q4), aiming for $600M by 2026. | Revenue +22% year-over-year, highlighted as a key growth area. Emphasized as transversal (across Ratings, Market Intelligence, Index) with iLEVEL and WSO gaining traction. | Continuous double-digit gains across all periods. Increasingly strategic with consistent references to synergy and growth potential. Seen as a major long-term driver. |
Ratings | Q2 2024: +33% revenue, transaction revenue +63%, private markets +70%, margins +810 bps. Expected modest Q4 2024 decline. Q1 2024: No mention [No references]. Q4 2023: +19% revenue, transaction +35%. Full-year margin 56.5%; 2024 guidance of 6–8% growth. | No mention in Q3 2024 documents. | Highlighted in Q2 and Q4 with strong transaction revenue growth; not discussed in Q1 or Q3. |
Mobility | Q2 2024: Subscription revenue +10.5%, dealer revenue +11%. Recall softness impacted margins, guidance slightly lowered. Q1 2024: +8% overall, dealer revenue +12%, no Q3 outlook details. Q4 2023: +9% revenue growth, dealer seeing 4th straight quarter of double-digit gains. | Solid subscription growth (double digits), but recall-related revenue headwinds led to trimmed guidance (38.5–39% margin, 8–8.5% revenue growth). | Recurring subscription strength but recall revenue volatility weighs on outlook. Sentiment pivoted from bullish in Q2 to more cautious in Q3. |
Commodity Insights | Q2 2024: +12% revenue, 32% growth in Advisory & Transactional, margin +170 bps to 47.3%, guidance for 6.7% H2 growth. Q1 2024: +10% revenue, Price Assessments +14%, cautious on H2 comps. Q4 2023: No specific mention [No references]. | 9% revenue growth, raised full-year guidance to 9–9.5%; strong in Price Assessments and Energy & Resources Data & Insights. | Maintains strong momentum: multi-quarter double-digit or high-single-digit growth. Guidance upgraded for 2024. No Q4 2023 detail specifically on slowdown. |
Visible Alpha | Q2 2024: Acquisition closed in May, contributed 1% to MI growth, broker count +5%, about 10 cross-sell deals closed. Q1 2024: Anticipated closing in Q2 2024, considered integral to Cap IQ Pro; no details on Q3 synergy. Q4 2023: Not mentioned [No references]. | Referenced as part of Desktop’s +8% growth (1% ex-acquisition). Continues to drive synergy in Market Intelligence. | Introduced in Q1 with acquisition plan, integrated in Q2, still contributing to Desktop in Q3. Evident synergy driver. |
AI Investment | Q2 2024: S&P Spark Assist used by 14k employees, multiple GenAI deployments (ChatAI in Platts, CLO docs in Ratings), governed by a Chief AI Officer. Q1 2024: AI recognized as long-term priority (Kensho), costs within tech budget, S&P Spark Assist copilot. Q4 2023: AI described as transformative, new AI-driven tools and an open ecosystem approach. | Strategic focus with Generative AI embedded across products (Market Intelligence, Commodity Insights, Mobility). Spark AI Academy launched for internal training, aiming to improve efficiency and margin. | Consistent investment across periods, shifting from early strategic emphasis (Q4 2023) to broad deployments and internal training by Q3 2024. Viewed as a major productivity and innovation driver. |
Leadership Changes & Synergy | Q2 2024: CEO Doug Peterson retirement announced, Martina Cheung to succeed. $199M synergy run rate, cross-sell as main driver, additional product launches. Q1 2024: No major leadership changes mentioned [No references]. Q4 2023: Exceeded $600M cost synergy target, $152M revenue synergy; some changes in technology/AI leadership. | New roles: CFO Eric Aboaf in Feb 2025, co-presidents at Commodity Insights, new Chief Client Officer, Chief Enterprise Data Officer. Emphasis on cross-division connectivity and synergy in Q3 2024. | Accelerating synergy realization alongside leadership transitions. New horizontal roles underscore focus on connectivity across divisions. Key synergy achievements noted each quarter. |
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Ratings Growth Outlook
Q: Is the 6–9% growth target for Ratings achievable after pull-forwards?
A: Martina affirmed that despite higher issuance levels and some pull-forward from future years, they are on track to achieve the 6% to 9% growth target for Ratings over the next several years, citing a healthy maturity wall of $2–2.8 trillion each year over the next five years and the strong correlation with GDP growth. -
Market Intelligence Challenges
Q: When will Market Intelligence growth improve, and what needs to change?
A: Martina noted that while they won't predict a trough, they have good conviction that innovation in core products and increased customer engagement will drive recovery as market conditions improve. She mentioned seeing some "green shoots" in certain sectors like banking. -
Synergy Realization
Q: Are synergies impacting divisions differently amid MI's challenges?
A: Doug stated that synergies from the merger are ahead of expectations, with cross-sell performing incredibly well. Integration has gone well, and they continue to deliver on synergy targets across all divisions. -
Strategy Under New Leadership
Q: What changes will Martina implement to enhance shareholder value?
A: Martina plans to connect the dots across divisions through new leadership functions like the Chief Commercial Officer and the enterprise data office, aiming to better leverage their data and create more growth opportunities. -
Commodity Insights Outlook
Q: Is Commodity Insights' strong performance sustainable amid cyclicality?
A: Martina is excited about the business due to its diversification across commodities and growth in areas like energy transition products, including a new clean energy tech product. They are investing in areas that are expected to continue growing. -
Competition in Market Intelligence
Q: Has pricing competition increased in Market Intelligence?
A: Doug acknowledged pricing pressure due to expense management in client firms, sales cycle slowdowns, and vendor consolidation. However, he emphasized that Market Intelligence remains an incredibly strong business with valuable data offerings. -
Indices Business Outlook
Q: How is the Indices business performing amid industry challenges?
A: Chris explained they are focusing on long-term customer relationships, expecting acceleration in Data & Custom revenue, which increased 5% year-over-year. They anticipate ACV acceleration later in the year. -
Adoption of AI Technologies
Q: What's the status of AI adoption among customers and internally?
A: Martina highlighted that their high-quality data positions them well for integrating generative AI into products. Clients are engaging with them on AI-ready data, and internally, the rollout of Spark Assist is progressing with high adoption and valuable use cases. -
Private Market Solutions Growth
Q: How is SPGI positioned in private markets amid industry growth?
A: Martina noted that they are investing and growing rapidly in private markets across the portfolio, with phenomenal products like iLEVEL and Wall Street Office performing well. They see opportunities in Ratings and Indices divisions too. -
Sustainability Products Strategy
Q: What is the outlook for sustainability products and new launches?
A: Martina announced plans to move the Sustainable1 business under Commodity Insights, combining it with energy transition products. This aims to leverage their unique capabilities to help clients navigate the energy transition and expand offerings to multiple sectors. -
Mobility Revenue Guidance
Q: Why was the Mobility revenue guidance trimmed again?
A: Chris stated that while core subscription growth was strong at low double digits, challenges continue in the recall business. They expect an easier comparison next year due to the recall headwinds easing. -
Chief Client Officer Role Creation
Q: What's the purpose of the new Chief Client Officer role?
A: Martina explained that the role aims to bring more consistency and connectivity across sales teams, ensuring customers understand the full breadth of SPGI's offerings and improving go-to-market practices. -
Market Intelligence Desktop Competition
Q: Is structural lack of growth in Financial Services impacting MI Desktop?
A: Martina believes market conditions play to their strengths, pointing to growth in areas like private credit. They have a broad offering, and products like Visible Alpha are performing well. Strategic accounts and new leadership roles are expected to enhance market share.
Research analysts covering S&P Global.