Executive Summary

Q4 2025 seasonally weak but improved YoY: net loss narrowed to $35.1M (-$0.53/unit) vs $44.6M (-$0.69) in Q4 2024; Adjusted EBITDA was $0.7M, essentially flat YoY, on 1.8% higher propane gallons (60.8M) and improved gross margin dynamics .
Revenue missed S&P Global consensus: $211.38M vs $227.0M estimate; EPS roughly in line at -$0.54 actual vs -$0.54 estimate; only one estimate was available, underscoring sparse coverage. Revenue miss likely tied to lower non-propane lines and seasonality. Values with asterisks from S&P Global estimates: Revenue and EPS consensus and actuals*.
FY25 was strong: Adjusted EBITDA +11.2% to $278.0M with propane gallons +5.9% to 400.5M; leverage improved to 4.29x from 4.76x, supported by disciplined operations, pricing, and weather tailwinds earlier in the year .
FY26 setup/catalysts: steady distribution ($0.325 quarterly; 2.13x TTM coverage), ongoing tech modernization, RNG projects expected online 1H FY26, and IRA tax credit eligibility for NY RNG project ($7–$9M) provide multi-track levers into the heating season .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Volume and margin execution: Q4 propane gallons rose 1.8% YoY and total gross margin increased YoY; CFO noted gross margin +$5.3M (+4%) YoY after excluding derivative mark-to-market, reflecting higher volumes and unit margins .
- Strategic progress and balance sheet: FY25 Adjusted EBITDA +11.2% to $278.0M; leverage improved to 4.29x, aided by ATM proceeds and targeted M&A; two California acquisitions followed fiscal year-end .
- Management tone/confidence: “Another outstanding year… strong demand… effective margin management… expense discipline,” and continued modernization to “deliver a better experience” for customers and employees .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line shortfall vs consensus: Q4 revenue of $211.38M missed the S&P Global consensus estimate of $227.0M*, reflecting typical seasonal softness and lower non-propane lines .
- RNG headwinds: FY25 RNG operations faced lower output and pricing headwinds (LCFS improved post-July changes but D3 RINs down ~25% YoY); Q4 included a ~$6M impairment on an early-stage energy tech investment (excluded from Adj. EBITDA) .
- Cost pressures: Q4 OpEx and G&A increased 4.5% YoY on variable costs, compensation, and tech initiative spend, largely offsetting gross margin gains at a seasonally weak point .

Financial Results

Overall performance vs prior periods and estimates

Metric	Q4 2024	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Consensus (Q4 2025)
Revenue ($USD Millions)	208.64	260.15	211.38	227.00*
Diluted EPS ($/unit)	-0.69	-0.23	-0.53	-0.54*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	0.75	27.02	0.66	N/A
Gross Margin ($USD Millions, reported)	124.02 (calc: 208.64-84.62)	160.60	136.75 (calc: 211.38-74.62)	N/A
Propane Gallons Sold (Millions)	59.73	71.91	60.82	N/A

Notes: CFO highlighted Q4 gross margin +$5.3M YoY when excluding derivative mark-to-market; reported gross margin YoY increase appears larger due to Q4’24 having a $6.5M unrealized loss vs Q4’25 ~$1.0M unrealized gain in COGS .

Segment revenue mix (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)

Segment ($USD Millions)	Q4 2024	Q4 2025	YoY Change
Propane	179.07	183.07	+2.24%
Fuel Oil & Refined Fuels	7.34	6.61	-10.0%
Natural Gas & Electricity	5.35	4.68	-12.5%
All Other	16.89	17.03	+0.8%
Total	208.64	211.38	+1.3%

Key KPIs

KPI	Q4 2024	Q3 2025	Q4 2025
Retail Propane Gallons (M)	59.73	71.91	60.82
Total Gross Margin ($M, reported)	124.02 (calc)	160.60	136.75 (calc)
Leverage Ratio (x, FY-end)	4.76 (FY24)	—	4.29 (FY25)
Distribution/Unit ($)	0.325 (declared Jul-24)	0.325 (declared Jul-24)	0.325 (declared Oct-23)
Distribution Coverage (TTM) (x)	—	—	2.13

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Propane CapEx ($)	FY 2026	Not disclosed	$40–$45M	New/Provided
RNG CapEx ($)	FY 2026	Not disclosed	$30–$35M; 1H front-loaded	New/Provided
RNG Project Timing	FY 2026	Not disclosed	Columbus, OH and Upstate NY online in 1H FY26	New/Provided
IRA Investment Tax Credit	FY 2026	Not disclosed	30% rate; $7–$9M for NY RNG (upon in-service)	New/Provided
Quarterly Distribution	Q4 2025	$0.325	$0.325 (paid Nov 12)	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025, Q3 2025)	Current Period (Q4 2025)	Trend
Weather-driven demand	Q2: Sustained cold in Jan/Feb drove +15.5% volumes . Q3: Warm quarter but steady volumes .	FY commentary: Core volumes +5.9%; Q4 gallons +1.8% .	Stable to positive YoY volume into shoulder season
Margin management	Q2: GM +12.1% YoY; strong pricing execution . Q3: GM flat YoY amid commodity volatility .	Q4: GM up YoY ex-MTM (+$5.3M); higher unit margins .	Improving ex-derivative
RNG operations & policy	Q2: Stanfield affected by cold; projects advancing . Q3: Lower D3 RINs; operational enhancements .	LCFS amendments effective 7/1/25; LCFS up >30% since June; D3 RINs -25% YoY .	Policy tailwind (LCFS) vs RIN headwind
Capital allocation	Q2: Launched ATM; repaid debt . Q3: $69M revolver paydown .	FY25 leverage to 4.29x; CA M&A post-year-end; FY26 CapEx outlook .	Balance sheet improving; targeted growth
Technology modernization	Q2/Q3: in progress .	Multi-year initiative to improve tools & service .	Ongoing investment
Distribution policy	Q2/Q3: $0.325 maintained .	$0.325 declared; coverage 2.13x TTM .	Stable/covered

Management Commentary

“Fiscal 2025 was an outstanding year… strong propane demand… 5.9% increase in volumes… effective margin management… 11.2% increase in Adjusted EBITDA” – Michael A. Stivala, CEO .
“We… launched an at-the-market equity program… raising $23.5 million… used to support… growth and… accelerate debt reduction.” .
“We embarked on a multi-year technology modernization initiative that will simplify the way we operate… and improve the tools we use to serve our customers.” .
CFO on Q4: “Adjusted EBITDA… $700,000… Retail propane gallons… +1.8% YoY… Total gross margin increased $5.3 million, or 4%… Combined operating and G&A expenses increased 4.5%...” .
Distribution coverage: “2.13x for the trailing 12 months ended September 2025.” .

Q&A Highlights

No analyst Q&A; the operator received no questions, and the call concluded after prepared remarks .

Estimates Context

Q4 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $211.38M actual vs $227.0M estimate (miss); EPS -$0.542 actual vs -$0.54 estimate (in line); number of estimates = 1 for both revenue and EPS. Values marked with asterisks are from S&P Global (see table below).
Sparse coverage (single estimate) suggests limited sell-side visibility; revisions likely minimal, but revenue shortfall could lead to modest downward tweaks to non-propane line expectations.

Metric	Q4 2025 Actual	Q4 2025 Consensus	# of Estimates
Revenue ($USD Millions)	211.38	227.00*	1*
Primary EPS ($/unit)	-0.5423*	-0.54*	1*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Seasonal quarter improved YoY with narrower loss and gallons up; however, revenue missed consensus on thin coverage—watch for narrative focus on execution into peak winter .
Management’s cost and margin discipline offset part of seasonal headwinds; ex-derivative gross margin improved, highlighting resilient pricing in the core propane business .
Distribution appears sustainable near term (2.13x TTM coverage) with leverage trending down; continued ATM usage provides balance sheet flexibility without stressing cash flows .
RNG remains a strategic option value: near-term headwinds (D3 RINs) offset by improving LCFS backdrop and 1H FY26 project startups plus expected IRA tax credits .
FY26 capital plan is clear (Propane $40–$45M; RNG $30–$35M), front-loaded to complete projects—expect near-term CapEx ramp followed by potential monetization/returns as assets enter service .
Trading setup: near-term catalysts include winter weather trajectory, LCFS price stability, RNG project commissioning milestones, and continued stable distributions—drivers of sentiment and yield support .

Sources: Q4/FY25 press release and 8-K (incl. detailed financial tables) ; Q4 2025 earnings call transcript ; Q3 2025 results release/8-K ; Q2 2025 release ; Distribution press release .

SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP (SPH)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary