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SM

SSR MINING INC. (SSRM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • SSR Mining delivered a strong start to 2025: revenue of $316.6M and diluted EPS of $0.28, with 103.8K GEO produced and AISC of $1,972/oz (or $1,749/oz excluding Çöpler costs) .
  • Bold beat versus consensus: Revenue beat by ~$20.5M and EPS beat by ~$0.14; EBITDA also exceeded estimates by ~$6.8M, supported by higher realized gold/silver prices and Puna volumes (consensus values marked * below) .
  • Liquidity remained robust at $819.6M, with cash of $319.6M after the $100M CC&V upfront payment; integration of CC&V was smooth and aligned with expectations .
  • Çöpler restart remains the key uncertainty; management cannot predict timing, and cash care & maintenance continues to burden consolidated AISC .
  • Near-term catalysts: CC&V technical report targeted for Q3, continued Hod Maden development ramp and financing work, and progress with Turkish regulators on Çöpler restart .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Seamless CC&V integration with March production of ~11.3K oz at AISC $1,774/oz and consistent operations per plan; management emphasized the “extremely smooth” integration and reserve upside .
  • Seabee delivered 26.0K oz at AISC $1,374/oz, aided by continued positive grade reconciliation at Santoy 9; “excellent start to the year” per management .
  • Puna posted an “excellent” quarter with 2.5Moz silver, low AISC ($13.16/oz), and strong realized silver prices ($32.47/oz) .

What Went Wrong

  • Consolidated AISC was elevated at $1,972/oz, reflecting ~$35.8M care & maintenance at Çöpler; even cash care & maintenance of ~$20.6M is included in AISC metrics, pressuring margins .
  • Çöpler remains suspended; management reiterated no estimate for timing or conditions for restart, sustaining uncertainty in narrative and consolidated cost metrics .
  • Cost metrics per GEO increased year over year (cost of sales per GEO $1,312 vs $1,166; AISC per GEO $1,972 vs $1,569), despite the strong realized metal prices, underscoring care & maintenance drag and mix effects .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs prior quarters and estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$257.4 $323.2 $316.6
Diluted EPS ($)$0.05 $0.03 $0.28
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$41.9*$88.8*$107.8*
EBITDA Margin (%)16.3%*27.5%*34.1%*
Gross Profit Margin (%)31.0%*41.5%*45.5%*
EBIT Margin (%)4.5%*15.6%*24.4%*
Net Income Margin (%)4.1%*1.7%*18.6%*

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Estimate vs Actual – Surprise (Q1 2025 and Q4 2024)

MetricQ4 2024 Estimate*Q4 2024 ActualSurpriseQ1 2025 Estimate*Q1 2025 ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$262.2$323.2 +$61.0$296.1$316.6 +$20.5
EPS ($)$0.19$0.10 -$0.09$0.15$0.28 +$0.14
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$100.7$88.8*-$11.9$101.1$107.8*+$6.8

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown – Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024

SegmentMetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
MarigoldGold produced (oz)34,680 38,586
MarigoldAISC ($/oz)$1,430 $1,765
CC&VGold produced (oz)—11,282 (Mar-only attributable)
CC&VAISC ($/oz)—$1,774
SeabeeGold produced (oz)23,773 26,001
SeabeeAISC ($/oz)$1,416 $1,374
PunaSilver produced (Moz)1.915 2.505
PunaAISC ($/oz)$15.61 $13.16

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
GEO produced (oz)97,429 124,154 103,805
GEO sold (oz)96,143 118,220 104,185
Cost of Sales per GEO ($/oz)$1,438 $1,295 $1,312
Cash Cost per GEO ($/oz)$1,312 $1,200 $1,206
AISC per GEO ($/oz)$2,065 $1,857 $1,972
Avg realized gold price ($/oz)$2,531 $2,603 $2,935
Avg realized silver price ($/oz)$30.05 $31.53 $32.47

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (3/31/2025)Current Guidance (5/6/2025)Change
Consolidated GEO production (ex-Çöpler)FY 2025410–480 koz 410–480 koz Maintained
Consolidated cost of sales ($/oz)FY 2025$1,375–$1,435 $1,375–$1,435 Maintained
Consolidated AISC ($/oz)FY 2025$2,090–$2,150 (ex-Çöpler: $1,890–$1,950) $2,090–$2,150 (ex-Çöpler: $1,890–$1,950) Maintained
Marigold productionFY 2025160–190 koz; AISC $1,800–$1,840 160–190 koz; AISC $1,800–$1,840 Maintained
CC&V production (Mar 1–Dec 31)FY 202590–110 koz; AISC $1,800–$1,840 90–110 koz; AISC $1,800–$1,840 Maintained
Seabee productionFY 202570–80 koz; AISC $1,710–$1,750 70–80 koz; AISC $1,710–$1,750 Maintained
Puna silver productionFY 20258.00–8.75 Moz; AISC $14.25–$15.75 8.00–8.75 Moz; AISC $14.25–$15.75 Maintained
Hod Maden growth capexFY 2025$60–$100M $60–$100M (spent ~$12.2M in Q1) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Çöpler restart & regulatorySite remediation progressing; EIA challenges revert ops to 2014 EIA; restart timing uncertain Heap leach permanently closed; Council of State affirmed EIA cancellation; restart could begin within ~20 days post permits; timing uncertain Confident in restart; still no timing estimate; ~$35.8M C&M, $5.0M remediation in Q1 Gradual progress; timing remains uncertain
CC&V integration & LOM planAcquisition announced Dec-2024 [22 listed in catalog]Closing anticipated Q1 2025 Closed Feb 28; integration “extremely smooth”; technical report targeted Q3 Positive integration; upcoming catalyst
Hod Maden capex & inflationAdvancing engineering; capex guidance forthcoming $42.1M FY24; capex guidance in Q1 ~$12M in Q1; ramp expected in H2; use 2022 FS economics with 10–15% compounded inflation Spend ramps H2; inflation accounted
Puna operations & mine lifeThroughput records, guidance raised Record FY24 silver; margins strong 2.5Moz in Q1; evaluating Chinchillas layback, Cortaderas Sustained strength; extension work
Marigold grades & H2 weightingH2 production weighting; cost pressure in royalties/maintenance Strong Q4; AISC below guidance H2 weighting 55–60%; grades trending up into Q3 Consistent H2-weighted plan

Management Commentary

  • “The first quarter results marked a strong start to the year for SSR… including nearly $40 million in free cash flow generation.” — Rod Antal, Executive Chairman .
  • “We recorded attributable net income of $0.28 per diluted share… operating cash flow of $85 million and free cash flow of $39 million… total liquidity position of over $800 million.” — Michael Sparks, CFO .
  • “Integration [of CC&V] has been extremely smooth… production aligned with expectations.” — Rod Antal .
  • “Seabee had an excellent start to the year… positive grade reconciliation in Santoy 9.” — Bill MacNevin, EVP Ops .
  • “At Hod Maden… spend will escalate… ramp up particularly from Q3 onwards.” — Rod Antal .

Q&A Highlights

  • CC&V technical report timing and detail: management aims to publish in Q3 to reacquaint the market with asset specifics; optimization areas to be detailed post-report .
  • Hod Maden spend cadence: ~$12.2M in Q1 largely owner/engineering; civil works/tunnel contracts to drive spend ramp in Q3–Q4; capex range maintained; inflation adjustments apply to 2022 FS .
  • Project independence: Hod Maden and Çöpler are operated separately; no link in permitting or restart success; integration only on shared overhead later in construction .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: SSRM beat revenue ($316.6M vs $296.1M*), EPS ($0.28 vs $0.15*), and EBITDA ($107.8M* vs $101.1M*) .
  • Q4 2024: Revenue beat ($323.2M vs $262.2M*), but EPS missed ($0.10 vs $0.19*); EBITDA below estimates ($88.8M* vs $100.7M*) .
MetricQ4 2024 Estimate*Q4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 Estimate*Q1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$262.2$323.2 $296.1$316.6
EPS ($)$0.19$0.10 $0.15$0.28
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$100.7$88.8*$101.1$107.8*

Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q1 execution was clean with broad-based operational strength (Marigold, Seabee, Puna) and a smooth CC&V integration; consolidated revenue and EPS both beat consensus, aided by higher realized prices and Puna volumes .
  • AISC remains elevated due to Çöpler care & maintenance; excluding Çöpler costs, AISC was $1,749/oz, signaling underlying cost competitiveness that could re-rate if restart progresses .
  • Liquidity of $819.6M and net cash provide flexibility to fund Hod Maden ramp and CC&V optimization while absorbing Çöpler-related costs .
  • Near-term catalysts: CC&V technical report in Q3, Hod Maden contract awards and spend ramp in H2, and Çöpler permitting milestones—these events can drive estimate revisions and stock moves .
  • Seabee grade reconciliation and Puna’s cost discipline (AISC $13.16/oz) support margin resilience even with Çöpler drag; monitor Puna mine-life extensions (Chinchillas layback/Cortaderas) .
  • Marigold remains H2-weighted (55–60%); expect stronger Q3 output as stacked grades trend higher, potentially aiding quarterly cash flow .
  • For trading, positive Q1 beat and upcoming CC&V report are constructive; Çöpler restart uncertainty is the principal overhang—headline sensitivity tied to regulatory updates and guidance reiterations .

Notes: All consensus estimates marked * are values retrieved from S&P Global.