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SM

SSR MINING INC. (SSRM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered solid operations but missed Wall Street on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA: revenue $385.84M vs $400.08M consensus (−3.5%), diluted EPS $0.32 vs $0.34 consensus, EBITDA $123.95M vs $159.06M consensus; management highlighted higher royalty costs on elevated gold prices and higher share-based compensation as cost headwinds, plus working capital impacts on FCF . Revenue/EPS/EBITDA consensus figures marked with an asterisk; Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Year-over-year metrics improved: revenue +50% to $385.84M, diluted EPS rose to $0.31 from $0.05, and GEO sold rose to 104,549 from 96,143 .
  • Guidance maintained: Company expects FY production in the lower half of the 410–480 koz GEO range; consolidated costs trending to the upper end of guidance due to royalties and SBC .
  • Near-term catalysts: Hod Maden updated LOM plan and construction decision “in the coming months” , and CC&V TRS published Nov 11 showing a 12-year mine life and after-tax NPV5% of $824M at consensus prices .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • CC&V continued to generate strong cash and remains a core asset; management expects the initial technical report to showcase a 10+ year mine life, with nearly $115M in mine-site after-tax FCF since acquisition year-to-date .
  • Puna delivered solid performance with 2.4 Moz silver in Q3 and AISC of $13.54/oz; mine-life extension work (Chinchillas laybacks, Cordaderos studies) is progressing .
  • Balance sheet remained strong: cash $409.3M; total liquidity $909.3M (undrawn revolver plus accordion) .

What Went Wrong

  • Consolidated AISC rose to $2,359/GE oz (or $2,114 excluding Çöpler), trending toward the high end of annual cost guidance due to higher royalties and share-based compensation .
  • Seabee underperformed: 9,118 oz produced, AISC $3,003/oz; lower-than-expected grades and prioritized underground development constrained output .
  • Free cash flow was −$2.4M, impacted by inventory movements at Marigold and CC&V and prepayments at Hod Maden (FCF before WC adjustments was $72.5M) .

Financial Results

Consolidated results by quarter

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$316.62 $405.46 $385.84
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$66.89 $108.89 $83.33
Net Income Attributable to SSRM ($USD Millions)$58.78 $90.08 $65.44
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.28 $0.42 $0.31
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.29 $0.51 $0.32
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$84.81 $157.84 $57.16
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$39.30 $98.39 −$2.40
GEO Produced (oz)103,805 120,191 102,673
GEO Sold (oz)104,185 116,736 104,549
Avg Realized Gold Price ($/oz)$2,935 $3,336 $3,503
Cost of Sales per GEO ($/oz)$1,312 $1,396 $1,585
Cash Cost per GEO ($/oz)$1,206 $1,282 $1,449
AISC per GEO ($/oz)$1,972 $2,068 $2,359

Q3 vs Consensus (Wall Street – S&P Global)

MetricConsensus*Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$400.08*$385.84
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.344*$0.31
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$159.06*$123.95 [functions.GetEstimates output]

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment operating metrics

SiteMetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Marigold (USA)Gold Produced (oz)35,906 36,273
AISC ($/oz gold)$1,977 $1,840
CC&V (USA)Gold Produced (oz)44,062 29,821
AISC ($/oz gold)$1,339 $1,756
Seabee (Canada)Gold Produced (oz)10,998 9,118
AISC ($/oz gold)$2,708 $3,003
Puna (Argentina)Silver Produced (000 oz)2,849 2,409
AISC ($/oz silver)$12.57 $13.54

Balance sheet KPIs

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$319.61 $412.10 $409.33
Total Liquidity ($USD Millions)$819.61 $912.10 $909.33
Working Capital ($USD Millions)$765.19 $666.56 $705.07

Margins (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$116.87*$171.65*$123.95*
EBITDA Margin (%)36.9%*42.3%*32.1%*
EBIT ($USD Millions)$83.96*$131.64*$97.10*
EBIT Margin (%)26.5%*32.5%*25.2%*
Net Income Margin (%)18.6%*22.2%*17.1%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated GEO ProductionFY 2025410–480 koz Expect lower half of range Maintained; narrative lowered
Consolidated Cost of Sales ($/GE oz)FY 2025$1,375–$1,435 Trending to upper end Maintained; costs higher
Consolidated AISC ($/GE oz)FY 2025$2,090–$2,150 Trending to upper end Maintained; costs higher
Marigold Gold ProductionFY 2025160–190 koz No numeric change Maintained
CC&V Gold Production (Feb 28–Dec 31, 2025)FY 202590–110 koz On track; AISC peak in Q3 Maintained; timing effect
Seabee Gold ProductionFY 202570–80 koz Targeting low end due to development Narratively lowered
Puna Silver ProductionFY 20258.00–8.75 Moz 2026: 7–8 Moz; 2027–28 ~4 Moz (mine life extension) Extended profile

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Çöpler restartSuspension; care & maintenance costs; cannot estimate restart timing Reclamation/remediation estimate revised to ~$312.9M; restart timing still uncertain Continued engagement with authorities; public support increased; timing still uncertain Progressing approvals; timing uncertain
Hod Maden$12.2M spend; 2025 growth capex $60–100M; technical work ongoing $16.2M Q2; YTD $29.1M; update planned $17.1M Q3; YTD $44.4M; LOM update and construction decision in coming months Advancing to decision
CC&VInitial integration metrics; early production 44,062 oz Q2; ~$85M mine-site FCF YTD; tech report in 2025 29,821 oz Q3; AISC peak as guided; TRS released Nov 11 (12-year LOM; NPV $824M) Strengthening core asset
Marigold38,586 oz; AISC $1,765; H2 weighted 35,906 oz; AISC $1,977 36,273 oz; fines require blending; stronger Q4 expected Managing ore characteristics
Seabee26,001 oz; AISC $1,374; positive grade recon 10,998 oz; AISC $2,708; fire-related power interruptions 9,118 oz; AISC $3,003; dev focus; lower grades Near-term constrained
Puna2.5 Moz; AISC $13.16 2.85 Moz; AISC $12.57; mine-life extension outlined 2.41 Moz; AISC $13.54; extension work continues Solid; extension path

Management Commentary

  • “Our third quarter operating results were generally aligned to our internal plans, and we continue to expect that a solid fourth quarter will bring us within consolidated 2025 production guidance.” – Rod Antal, Executive Chairman .
  • “Higher than forecasted royalty costs and share-based compensation… is pushing our AISC towards the top end of our full-year cost guidance range.” – CFO Michael Sparks .
  • “Hod Maden remains one of the most compelling… undeveloped copper-gold projects in the sector and has the potential to generate exceptional free cash flow once in production.” – Rod Antal .
  • “CC&V had a solid quarter… [and] has now generated nearly $115 million in asset-level free cash flow since acquisition.” – Bill MacNevin, EVP Ops & Sustainability .

Q&A Highlights

  • Q4 outlook: Strength largely expected from Marigold; CC&V steady; Marigold addressing ore fines via blending and pad placement to finish strongly in Q4 .
  • Seabee grades: Lower-than-expected grade mix from Gap Hanging Wall; development prioritization continues into Q4 with expectations for incremental improvement .
  • Çöpler: Regulatory approvals tied to technical closures and facility approvals; public support has risen, but approvals remain the driver for restart timing .
  • Hod Maden spend/decision: Year-end spend tracking mid-range of guidance; comprehensive updated technical report will underpin construction decision; not dependent on Çöpler restart .
  • Strategy/M&A: Maintain disciplined, strategy-aligned approach; focus on building platforms in core jurisdictions (US, Canada, Argentina, Türkiye) .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 printed a miss versus consensus: revenue $385.84M vs $400.08M*, diluted EPS $0.31 vs $0.344*, and EBITDA $123.95M vs $159.06M*; cost headwinds from royalties (due to higher gold prices) and share-based compensation pressured AISC; working capital movements reduced reported FCF despite strong FCF before WC . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Forward expectations: Consensus for Q4 2025 EPS $0.487* and revenue $494.71M*; Q1 2026 EPS $0.615* and revenue $470.77M*. Given management’s “lower half” production and “upper end” costs comment, estimates may need to reflect elevated AISC in Q4, particularly with CC&V sustaining capital weighting and Seabee’s continued development focus . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Print miss on revenue/EPS/EBITDA driven by cost inflation (royalties, SBC) and working capital; near-term trading bias cautious until Q4 delivery confirms the lower-half production trajectory but with elevated AISC .
  • CC&V’s TRS underpins medium-term cash flow with a 12-year mine life and strong NPV leverage to gold prices; this should support multiple expansion if execution stays on track .
  • Hod Maden decision is a pivotal upside catalyst; updated LOM plan and construction decision expected “in the coming months” .
  • Çöpler restart remains binary; growing public support helps narrative, but regulatory approvals drive timing—portfolio resilience rests on US/Canada/Argentina assets until restart .
  • Seabee remains a drag near-term; watch for improvement from development progress and grade access in Q4/Q1 .
  • Puna offers stable silver output and lower AISC; mine-life extension path (Chinchillas/Cordaderos) provides visibility to 2026–2028 .
  • Liquidity is robust ($909M), giving flexibility to fund Hod Maden and organic extensions without equity needs; supports defensive posture in volatile commodity tape .