Stellantis - Q1 2023
May 3, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Hello, and welcome to the Stellantis first quarter 2023 revenues. My name is George, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. For information, today's call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Ed Ditmire, Head of Investor Relations of Stellantis. Please go ahead, sir.
Ed Ditmire (Head of Investor Relations)
Thank you. Welcome to everyone joining us today as we review Stellantis' revenues for the first quarter of 2023. Earlier today, the presentation material used during this call, along with the related press release, was posted under the investor section of the Stellantis group website. Today, our call is hosted by Richard Palmer, the company's Chief Financial Officer. After his presentation, Mr. Palmer will be available to answer questions from the analysts. Before we begin, I want to point out that any forward-looking statements we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement, including on page two of today's presentation. As customary, the call will be governed by that language. I would like to hand the call over to Richard Palmer, CFO of Stellantis.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thanks very much, Ed. Good day to everybody. Happy to be here today to discuss Stellantis shipments and revenues numbers for Q1 2023. Starting on page three, we present a summary of the operational and financial highlights for the quarter. After delivering record results in our first two years of Stellantis, we entered year three with great momentum and focus on the execution of our long-term strategic plan, Dare Forward 2030. We posted strong Q1 net revenues of EUR 47.2 billion, up 14% against the prior year, thanks to a 7% increase in consolidated shipments and continued pricing discipline, with all segments posting year-over-year increases in net revenues and positive pricing.
On a year-over-year basis, we saw our market share decline in North America and EU30 by 160 and 170 basis points respectively. We improved versus Q4 2022 and expect the current level of inventory and commercial actions from our teams to support further progress in those markets. Our market share grew by 20 basis points in South America and by 230 basis points in Middle East and Africa, highlighting the success of our strategy to expand our presence in growing markets and the competitiveness of our global brand portfolio. Our global LEV sales reached 137,000 units, up 25%, and within those, our BEV sales grew 22% to 73,000 units.
Our PHEV sales progressed by 29% to 64,000 units with a strong performance in North America, pushed by the continuous success of the Jeep Wrangler, which is the number one selling PHEV in the U.S. market. In addition to the progress on electrification, another illustration of our progress against our strategic objectives is our Third Engine, which is internally how we call the aggregate of South America, Middle East and Africa, and China and Asia, India and Asia Pacific segments, the global growth markets. It contributed EUR 6.7 billion to net revenues, 26% more than the prior year, and represented about 14% of our total net revenues for the period.
With regards to capital allocation, we approved the distribution of EUR 5.7 billion in aggregate to our shareholders in 2023, including tomorrow's EUR 4.2 billion dividend payments and the execution of a share buyback program of up to EUR 1.5 billion, with the first EUR 500 million tranche expected to be completed in June 2023. Finally, we have confirmed our full year 2023 guidance and affirmed our 2023 industry outlook. Moving to page four, we present the shipments and net revenues for the group. As mentioned before, our consolidated shipments increased by 7% to 1.5 million units, and this was primarily the result of an improvement in the fulfillment of our semiconductor orders compared to Q1 last year.
We continue to gradually reduce the level of production losses related to semiconductor shortages. We expect supply to continue normalizing as we progress through the rest of the year. Importantly, net revenues grew twice as fast as shipments, being up 14%, with further positive pricing impacts coming from carryover pricing. Moving to page five, we show the net revenue walk from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023 and the EUR 5.8 billion top line improvement. At a segment level, North America accounted for 36% of that growth, while Enlarged Europe contributed for 26%. Our Third Engine brought a 24% share of the increase, of which 13% came from Middle East and Africa and 10% from South America.
Looking at the various drivers at group level, volume and mix contributed positively for EUR 2.7 billion, of which EUR 1.2 billion came from Enlarged Europe, driven by both higher shipments and mix improvements, while North America contributed EUR 0.5 billion, with the positive impact from higher volumes, partially offset by negative mix. Middle East and Africa and South America each brought an additional EUR 0.4 billion due to both volume and mix improvements. Vehicle net price was positive for EUR 2.3 billion due to favorable carrier pricing in all segments and compensation for currency devaluation in Turkey. FX translation brought another EUR 0.5 billion, with about $1 billion positive impact from a stronger US dollar and negative impact from the devaluation of the Turkish lira.
Next, on page six, we look at the segments individually, starting with North America. The industry was up 9% year-over-year, and as commented earlier, our market share was down 160 basis points to 10%. While our market share improved sequentially, Q1 was the strongest quarter of 2022 due to the availability of the prior version of the Jeep Grand Cherokee. The drop year-over-year was primarily driven by the discontinuation of this prior version, as well as lower Wrangler sales. Partially offsetting this was a 34% increase in Dodge brand sales. As a result, total sales decreased by 6.5% to 432,000 units.
Consolidated shipments, on the other hand, increased by 6% to 509,000 units. Consequently, our dealer stock increased, remaining at around 69 days sales at the end of the quarter. Shipments growth was primarily driven by higher volumes for Dodge and Chrysler models and for the Jeep Compass and Ram ProMaster, partially offset by less Jeep Grand Cherokee units. Revenues were up 10% to EUR 22.8 billion, with main positive impacts coming from volume up 6%, pricing up around 3% and positive FX translation, while mix was negative, mainly due to our higher share of fleet in the U.S. and significant increase in Jeep Compass volumes. Turning to Enlarged Europe, the market increased by 16% in EU30, mainly due to easing supply chain constraints and a particularly low base comparison period.
Our sales in EU, EU30 grew by 7% or 45,000 units. As a result, our market share was down 170 basis points to 19.3%. Nonetheless, it represented a sequential improvement of 190 basis points as we made progress reducing logistical issues around delivering vehicles to final customers. Our consolidated shipments, on the other hand, increased 6% to 657,000 units as we benefited from initial demand for our newer models such as Alfa Romeo Tonale, Peugeot 408, which complemented higher volumes for key models like Fiat 500, Peugeot 308, and Opel Astra and Corsa. Our BEV shipments in the region reached 88,000 units, with increases for the Fiat 500 and e-208.
We also remained the clear leader in the commercial BEV segment in EU30, with more than 13,000 units sold, up 57% year-over-year and achieving a 43% market share. Net revenues increased 10% to EUR 16.1 billion, driven by the higher shipments and favorable mix due to increased LEV mix and the combination of less A and B segment vehicles and more upper segment vehicles on the newly launched vehicles. Vehicle net price was strongly positive, up around 7%. Other impacts were mainly due to higher buyback revenues. Regarding Middle East and Africa, our sales increased 36% to 126,000 units, while the industry was up 12%. Our market share improved by 230 basis points to reach 13.4%.
Being market leader in Turkey, we were able to capture a significant part of the 55% market growth, more than doubling our sales while improving our market share by almost 10 percentage points to reach nearly 40% share in the country. The sales increase supported our consolidated shipments across most brands, and in particular for Peugeot, Citroën, and Opel, to bring our total shipments in the region to 83,000 units, up 24% year-over-year. Net revenues reached EUR 2.2 billion on higher volumes and favorable mix, as well as the strong positive pricing. Turning to page seven. In South America, our 8.9% sales growth outpaced the 8.2% growth for the industry, leading to a 23.5% market share, up 20 basis points from the prior year.
Our total sales stood at 201,000 units, supported by strong commercial performance from the Fiat brand. Consolidated shipments increased by 10% to 191,000 units, with the all-new Fastback adding 10,000 units and higher volumes from the Fiat Argo, Citroën C3, and Peugeot 208. Net revenues increased by 20% to EUR 3.5 billion due to volume and mix improvements. Vehicle net price up 3% and FX translation effects. Looking at China and India and Asia Pacific, our consolidated shipments increased 4% with a good start for the Citroën C3, the first of our vehicles engineered on the Smart Car platform, which is designed for a more affordable offering and is also launching this year in South America.
We also had higher Citroën Berlingo sales at around 1,500 volumes, offsetting a reduction in shipments for the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Compass. Net revenues for the segment reached the EUR 1 billion mark, up 5%, mainly due to the increase in volumes and improved mix and pricing effects, more than offsetting the negative impact from a weaker Japanese yen. We conclude our segment review with a very strong performance from Maserati, benefiting from shipments of the all-new Grecale and all-new GranTurismo. Shipments for the brand in North America and in large Europe reached 3,800 units and 2,000 units respectively, more than doubling year-over-year, driving total shipments up 95%. Consequently, net revenues increased 65%.
Despite the Grecale being sold at a significant premium against its key competition in the segment, the negative mix impact was due to its lower price range compared to the other models in the brand. On page eight, we present the status of the aggregate of independent dealer and company-owned inventory, which rose to 1.3 million units at the end of March, compared to 1.1 million at the end of last year. After the last two years of supply-constrained environment marked by the pandemic, unfulfilled semiconductor orders, and production disruptions, our inventory has now returned to a more normal level consistent with the current sales rate. In last year, we continued to experience outbound logistics challenges, which have caused an increase in our company-owned inventory.
As we resolve these logistics issues in the next few months, we expect this inventory to flow through to dealer inventory and to higher sales. Moving to page nine and looking ahead, we are accelerating our electrification journey in North America, adding what we believe will be a powerful second dimension to our already strong European EV story. The Ram ProMaster will be launched by the end of this year, and considering also imported vehicles, we will count a total of eight BEV's in the region by the end of 2024. Those will include the Jeep Recon and Wagoneer S, as well as our benchmark defining Ram 1500 REV, which will offer the best combination of range, payload, towing capacity, and charging time in this strategic segment. Turning to our final page, we review our full-year outlook and guidance.
We have maintained our 2023 industry outlook for all regions, as provided in our last call on 22nd February. We're keeping a relatively stable approach on our full year projections, despite high single-digit to low double-digit growth in most regions in the first quarter of the year. We would expect strong year-over-year comparisons to continue in Q2. We may remain prudent regarding the second half of the year, given the macro environment. Stellantis will continue to remain focused on maximizing margin performance and cash flow generation to position the company as profitable in all weathers. On the basis of the positive Q1 performance that we have just reviewed, we confirm our guidance for full year 2023, expecting double-digit Adjusted Operating Income margin and positive Industrial free cash flows.
Last of all, let me address the recent announcement that I'll be leaving the company at the end of June. Natalie Knight, the current CFO of Ahold Delhaize, is joining the company as our next CFO. While this is a dynamic industry and there's always much more to do, at the same time, I think for the company and myself, we're in as good a time as any to execute a transition. In terms of the financial health of the company, last year, Stellantis delivered one of the highest Adjusted Operating Incomes in the industry, with top three rankings in both revenue scale and margin percentage. The merger integration has progressed well and delivered to the point where we have a high level of confidence in our ability to maximize the combination's potential with the necessary capital to execute it secured.
As someone would say, it's all about execution, and I wish Carlos and my colleagues at Stellantis all the best for the future. I'd also like to say that it's been a privilege for me to have held this position and to have had the opportunity to discuss our unique company and the direction of the industry with you, the analysts on this call, our investors, and the broader investment community. From my side, the interactions have always been frank and constructive, and I have learned a lot from them. Many thanks to you all. I'll be here for another couple of months, and we will have opportunities to touch base. Now let's talk about our performance in Q1 and what is most important to the results of Stellantis moving forward. Operator, we're now ready to take questions. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please press star one at this time. Today's first question is coming from Mr. George Galliers, calling from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is open.
George Galliers (Head of European Automotive Investment Research)
Thank you. Richard, I would like to start by saying a big thank you to you. I believe I speak on behalf of the entire investment community when I say that you will be hugely missed once you leave Stellantis. Over the last two decades, you've overseen several cycles, a global financial crisis, spin-offs, M&A, and I think most importantly, more recently, unprecedented industry margins in both North America and Europe for a mainstream volume automaker. Throughout the years, I believe there has been a very high level of mutual respect between the financial markets and yourself, and your factual, transparent and patient approach, as well as your willingness to always engage in discussion and debate, have been hugely appreciated by the market. A big thank you, and we wish you the very best. Turning to questions, maybe if we could just start with inventory.
Obviously, this is a big focus for investors at this point. Can you just give us an indication of where your inventory in North America and Europe sits today relative to what you view as a desirable level and also relative to pre-2020 levels? The second question was with regards to North American margins. Obviously, compared to the first half of last year, we are expecting higher industrial costs, but at the same time, price mix in Q1 was a large positive driver. As you mentioned, you expect strong year-over-year evolution in Q2. With this in mind, will the strong price mix effectively net against the industrial cost, creating scope for similar North American margins in 1H to last year? On balance, do you expect the cost to outweigh the price mix? Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you, George. Thank you for the kind words. Appreciate it. Talking about the quarter and your questions on inventory, I think for North America, we have about 69 days of inventory, which I think is fine in terms of absolute level. Our market share has been slowly improving from, you know, from the low levels we hit in Q4 of last year for various reasons. I think that's very positive. Clearly we have a pretty strong overall market as well. I think in terms of the absolute level, it's okay. Comparable to, I suppose, you know, pre 2020 levels, although we were actually higher than that for a period of time. I don't think it's high compared to...
Well, actually it's still low actually compared to pre-2020 levels. I think it's very healthy. There are some issues in terms of the mix still. you know, we had some competitive issues on the lower price range areas of Grand Cherokee and light duty Ram. I think those are now being addressed so that we can offer a more, you know, balanced product range to the customers in the dealerships. Secondly, we also had a couple of stop sales on the heavy duty truck in the last three months or so, which clearly hurt us from a sales performance point of view. I think those are now behind us, so we should see some improvement in our short-term share performance.
I think North America's is okay. you know, we're going into the seasonally high spring selling season. We saw April was a pretty strong start, I think it's fine. On the European side, the real issue continues to be outbound logistics and our ability to fulfill order backlog. We have still a pretty strong portfolio of orders, our challenge continues to be fulfilling those orders. It's improving, but obviously the market's moving quite fast as well. we've moved slower than the market in fulfilling our orders compared to our competition, and I think that's hurting our share. you saw our production is improving, and so the company inventory was up, and that's mainly in Europe.
We need to continue to improve our outbound logistics performance to transfer that company inventory into dealer inventory and then into sales and market share. That's still, you know, top of our list of things to resolve. It is improving, as I said, but it's still creating some delays in our sales process. I think that's where we are on stock. In absolute terms, I think we're fine with those two caveats that I just explained. Margin in North America. You know, I think the progress on the top line shows you that pricing is relatively stable coming off the end of last year. You know, for North America, I think that's very important that we maintain our price positions.
Our products and our brands, in our view, are extremely competitive, and warrant the price positions that we have, we've earned over the last two years or so, and actually longer. I think that's fine. I think at the moment, like I say, our sales performance is also trending up month-over-month. The big challenge clearly is to continue to reduce our cost positions from also the high levels they finished up at the end of last year. We're making progress on our product cost and our transformation cost. The production environment is more stable, and that's helping us to be more efficient.
As we go through H1, you know, as we've talked about, also with the CEO, the first priority is to be disciplined on pricing and at the same time, work on our cost position on the product and bring that down. The mix was a bit negative in Q1 on North America. We had more fleet and more Jeep Compass. As Jeep Compass is improving performance, it's giving us a bit more volume, but it's from a revenue per unit point of view, it's negative on mix. I think, you know, that's also a positive top line impact.
You know, I think we can, we can see a way through H1 of maintaining a good balance between holding price and working on our cost equation. you know, the discipline is there, we'll see how our commercial performance continues in Q2. so far, I think, you know, so good.
George Galliers (Head of European Automotive Investment Research)
Great. Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thanks so much for that.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much, sir. We'll now move to Thomas Besson calling from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead, sir. Mr Besson, your line is open, sir. Could you just check that your line is not muted on your end?
Thomas Besson (Equity Research Analyst and Head of Automotive Research)
Apologies. Hi, it's Thomas. Richard, I would first like to extend George's message and thank you as well. I think it has been a privilege more for us to work with you than for you to work with us. You've always been very transparent and brought your own clear view on Fiat Chrysler and Stellantis, and it's been very useful for all of us. If I move to my questions, I'll have three, please. Firstly, I'd like you to come back on the Third Engine dynamic. I mean, the evolution of ASP and probably margins is the best in the group it seems. Can you remind us the key drivers of that and maybe the relative share of electrification in that engine versus European NAFTA?
Second, you've mentioned the fact that your order bank is still super high. Could you give us any number on the evolution of that global order intake or European order intake and its evolution in Q1? Lastly, if we come back to inventory, is it fair to say that the fact that you have higher group inventories suggests more that you still have a few ongoing issues, as you were saying about outgoing logistics more than any erratic development on that field? Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you, Thomas. On the Third Engine, I think, you know, there's obviously a lot going on there 'cause it's an aggregation of 4 regions of our business. I mean, on South America, I think, obviously, FCA had a very strong position in Brazil historically, and with the Fiat brand and more latterly also with the Jeep brand. I think PSA had a stronger position in Argentina, actually, and then in different segments of the market as well in terms of the product portfolio. Putting the two together, I think, we've sort of rounded out a complete product portfolio for the business. We've got two major markets, not one.
We've also got a lot more opportunity in the rest of South America with a more complete product portfolio. We have a very, you know, a strong team, very strong brand equity in South America. I think we've seen, you know, improving share, improving margins, improving customer satisfaction and product quality. Everything has been going in the right direction in South America.
You know, I think we will continue to have good momentum because we have, you know, we have strong positions in parts of the market which are very relevant to that geography with the Jeep SUVs, the pickup trucks on various brands, and now also bringing in the Ram brand at the top end on the pickup. I think it's a very strong mix of factors that continue to show us opportunities there. Middle East Africa doesn't have the industrial base that South America has.
That's been a, that's now a big priority for us, as we've been talking about getting more dedicated capacity into Middle East Africa because we do have very good positions from ex-PSA in some of the North Africa countries, from ex-FCA in Turkey, and also from ex-PSA in Turkey. I think the team has done a great job in bringing also a lot more focus onto the region and onto the Gulf area as well and bringing to bear some of our product portfolio again, which, you know, is very complete for the region and includes also the U.S.-sourced product, which can be very profitable in parts of the market as well.
I think, you know, with Turkey position, the Morocco position, growth opportunities in Algeria and other countries in North Africa and the Gulf states, you know, I think the product portfolio is great. The team's doing a great job, and we're seeing some really good results, and we're making further investments because clearly Middle East Africa has a very strong cost base. It's relatively close to some of our other markets, and there's a lot of synergies there that we can take advantage of. You know. I think in the Asia-Pacific and China, in the Asia-Pacific's also had a lot of positive growth in the last two years. We're now making more investments on the industrial side outside of India. India, we have a good position.
We just launched a, some, a specific Smart Car platform, which is gonna be an important platform, both for the Third Engine countries and also I think, medium term also for European competitiveness on the low end of the price range. Also, you know, good potential. You know, I think the Third Engine really is where Stellantis can continue to drive growth. As we talked about, we don't, we don't want to, you know, sit on our laurels and, and just, you know, look at price and, and margin maximization in the mature markets, but we want to grow globally. I think this is a really good story, which is gonna continue.
In terms of the order bank. Yeah, I'm not gonna give you a precise number, but I think we have a strong order bank going through beyond the end of Q2 for Europe. We have seen some sort of, you know, some relative slowdown in order intake a little bit. We still have a very solid order bank, and more than absolute order intake, we've also seen a bit of a change in the mix where we've had B2C mix slowing down a bit more. B2B is still relatively strong. You know, we're keeping a very close eye on the trend in terms of, you know, the order intake.
At the moment, the real focus and issue for us continues to be, you know, fulfilling the portfolio orders that we had, as I mentioned earlier. I think, you know, there is to some extent, the growth in the European market is also a function of a number of the OEMs having a strong portfolio of orders. Those orders are now being fulfilled quicker because production is improving. Unfortunately, with our outbound transportation challenges, maybe we're fulfilling them slower than others. That's hurting a little bit our share performance. I think the attractiveness of the relative portfolios is still very strong and we're seeing a good level of order intake, and the portfolio is good. You know, it's really.
For the full year, the big item is to see how I think sales perform into the second quarter and, you know, through September, because I think the order book gets us through sort of Q2 timeframe. Outbound transportation is also creating a bit of a cost headwind because there is inflation there, because we're not the only ones suffering on logistics. Pricing has also shown a lot of inflation on the pricing. It's starting to mitigate a little bit, but it's not just a Stellantis challenge. I think it's an industry challenge. Okay. Thanks very much, Thomas.
Thomas Besson (Equity Research Analyst and Head of Automotive Research)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much, sir. Our next question is coming from Mr. Philippe Houchois, calling from Jefferies. Please go ahead, sir.
Philippe Houchois (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Oh, well, thank you. Again, thank you very much, Richard, and all the best in your next project. My question is on, we had Ford results yesterday. They posted some very, well, strong improvement in their commercial business across the U.S., talking about very strong pricing and also kind of a catch-up equipment space for some of the contractors who couldn't get trucks for a while. Are you seeing the same situation? Are you still kind of in a situation where your commercial customers are above group average margins at this stage? Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thanks, Philippe. I think our commercial vehicle business is extremely strong, and we're in a relatively similar position to Ford and, you know, fighting it out with them for global leadership of LCV. Obviously the strengths that we have and they have are slightly different. They have a very big position in pickup in North America. Ours is smaller, and obviously we've been improving that over the last decade, so, getting closer to them, and I think our new products will continue to help us to be very competitive in that area. Obviously in Europe and in South America, we have very strong positions on LCV leadership positions.
Our profitability on LCV as a whole is above average compared to our portfolio, that's for sure, including obviously pickups and vans in that. I think it's an area where we need to continue to focus a lot of effort, both in terms of execution, dedicated resource, internally and also capital. You know, I think you'll see great things from our LCV business going forward and potentially, you know, over time, we need to continue to give you more visibility of it because I think sometimes people forget how important it is to Stellantis performance.
Philippe Houchois (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you, Philippe.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much, sir. Sorry to interrupt you, sir. Our next question is coming from Stephen Reitman, calling from Société Générale. Please go ahead, sir.
Stephen Reitman (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you very much. Again, thank you, Richard, for all your help and all you've done for communication with investors and with analysts. Looking at the U.S. again, you said in the past that the U.S. dealers haven't been asking for more incentives. They've actually been asking for more vehicles. Where would you say we are now on that axis as we look into the second quarter? Could you update us on the progress you're doing in terms of the in-house Finco development versus you're working with Santander? Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thanks, Stephen. On U.S. dealers, I don't wanna exaggerate. I mean, obviously, I think most business people, if you give them an incentive, they would ask for it. That's part of the normal discussion with any partner in a transaction. I think it's still true that, you know, our biggest challenge at the moment is to get the right complete mix of product into our dealerships. You know, we've talked about it in the last couple of calls that Grand Cherokee and light duty truck needed to be rounded out at the lower end of the mix, and that's in progress. I think we've made a lot of progress. You've seen our market share edging up in the last few months.
You know, we've also had other product challenges like the heavy duty truck. You know, I think the main focus for us is to have the best product in the marketplace at the right, at the right place and the right mix, and that's getting there. As I said earlier on, in terms of the pricing positions, I think overall, and there are always, you know, some debates on individual vehicles and individual, you know, parts of the market. I think overall, we think our price positions are appropriate for the quality of and the, you know, the offering that we make under our main brands.
We've seen some of our brands further improving their performance, notwithstanding, you know, that we've made some price improvements because of the equity of the brand and the quality of the product. I don't think so far it's the discipline is abating. We need to maintain discipline on price, and we need to work on the cost of the vehicles because, you know, we had a lot of inefficiencies we talked about because of semiconductors and other supply chain challenges, and that's a big focus for us. That if pricing becomes tougher in H2, which is a possibility that we need to be ready for, not that we're expecting that to be happening, it's certainly not going to be us that start focusing on price reductions.
I think we need to make sure that our cost positions are extremely competitive. That's a huge focus. I think it's something that the Stellantis organization has proven itself to be quite good at. On the Finco, you know, we're building the portfolio as we talked about. I think this year, we expect to build up to around $5 billion of portfolio in the Finco in North America. That will be an important start to, you know, the next four or five years of building a portfolio that is at a level which makes sense for the size of our business in the U.S.
We continue to work together with our other financing partners because it is important for us to offer our customers and dealers, you know, options. Our captive Finco is still being ramped up. But we have the products, we have the team in place, and now we're starting to, you know, financing a lot of our sales, and we'll start to see an improvement in the portfolio through this year. We'll keep you updated on how that's progressing.
Stephen Reitman (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you, Stephen.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, sir. We'll now take questions from Mr. Tom Narayan calling from RBC. Please go ahead, sir.
Tom Narayan (Managing Director and Lead Equity Analyst for Global Autos)
Hi. Thanks, thanks, Ed, Richard, Tom Narayan, RBC. Thanks again, Richard, for everything. A question I follow up probably on Philippe's question from the Ford results last night. The thing that was really called out for North America, net pricing was in incentives, coming up considerably. One thing that they noted was there would be a sizable downshift in 23 because of the way that incentive accrual happens, like between wholesales and retails. Basically, because incentives are going up, by the time it's a retail sale in, let's say, 2024, it gets accrued beforehand. There's this kind of downshift that happens on net pricing. Just curious if that's something that could happen for you guys as well.
Then the other question, you know, they talked a lot about Ford Pro and how it has this 30% attach rate, like software services and, I think aftermarket. Just curious if you could share some similar metrics that you guys have for your U.S. professional, you know, on the pickup truck side. Thanks.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Yeah. Thanks, Tom. Well, in terms of the mechanics of incentives, it's just a mechanical process, right? If you accrue incentives at shipment and then you alter the incentive on your vehicles in the market, then the vehicles that are in dealer stock at that time on which you've accrued a certain incentive, if you decide you're going to spend more, then you have a stock adjustment, right? That's just I assume that's what they're talking about. I didn't listen to Ford's call, but I assume that's what they're talking about. I think.
Tom Narayan (Managing Director and Lead Equity Analyst for Global Autos)
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
That's just a mechanical process. I mean, you know, like I said, I mean, We expect to be very disciplined on our pricing. So far, I think you've seen that that's our approach. Our margins are clearly very strong in North America. Last year, they were very strong. We've got a good position and a great team who are very focused on maintaining the profitability. You know, I'm not predicting any changes in our pricing positions. Like I said earlier, it's key for us to continue to work on the cost equation of the product and on all of the synergy opportunities that we have to maintain our competitiveness.
You know, so that if there is any sort of price erosion in the marketplace, then we're in good shape to manage it and not have significant impacts on our margin performance. In terms of Ford Pro, we obviously compete with them very directly in all our markets. I don't have specifics on the attach rates. We can get you those offline. But I think we're very competitive with Ford Pro on all the aspects of the customer offering, both the product and the services. It's clearly something that our LCV team is very used to managing. You know, we are their main competitor in lots of ways, in lots of jurisdictions.
You know, I think we're very competitive, but I don't have precise numbers to compare to the 30% you mentioned, so we'll get back to you on it.
Tom Narayan (Managing Director and Lead Equity Analyst for Global Autos)
Okay, thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Thank you very much, sir. We'll now move to José Asumendi calling from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open, sir.
José Asumendi (Managing Director, Head of Global Automotive Research and Head of European Autos Equity Research)
Thank you. It's José at JPMorgan. Hi, Richard. Look, also on my behalf, thank you very much for the excellent dialogue over the past years. When I look back, you've been extremely helpful during the Peugeot Fiat merger, instrumental in the overall Stellantis journey, as well as all the various other projects you have there during the Fiat times. Thank you for all that. On questions, three of them, please. Can you comment on inventories in Europe and the U.S., where do you stand? You know, we go back to the U.S. level of inventories. They do seem to be, you know, higher than peers. It might set some doubts with regards to incentives and pricing power in the region.
Are you overall comfortable with the level of inventories you have in the U.S.? Is this, you know, a solid level to continue to protect pricing power going forward? That'd be the first question. Second, on the revenue bridge at substantial, you know, revenue contribution on pricing, is that largely gonna be offset by incremental costs or can we expect maybe some net tailwind between costs and that very strong pricing momentum in the first quarter? Final one, I was listening to your final remarks there. I believe you mentioned the company is very well positioned to manage a transition. With this in mind, we are seeing one of your U.S. peers showing substantial losses in battery electrified vehicles, in BEVs.
How do you think about this transition, in the next, you know, 12, 24 months? Should we expect Stellantis also to show substantial losses in BEVs? Is this how you think about it? Or should we think more maybe in line with how you have been running the European business where you have ramped electric vehicles, and we haven't seen much of a margin dilution from electric cars? Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thanks, José. On inventories in North America, like I said earlier, I'm not concerned about the absolute level of the inventory. I think we've had some concerns on mix, and that's hurt us a bit in certain segments of the market in terms of sales performance. That's being resolved, not concerned. We're going into, you know, the summer selling season. It's normal to have a slight inventory build. We have shutdown at the end of the summer. You know, I think it's fine. On pricing and costs, yes, you're right. In Q1, on the revenue bridge, you can see a reasonably substantial impact from carryover pricing, which is, you know, around 6%.
You know, we talked about the fact that last year we had inflation impacts of about EUR 9.5 billion. That was about 5%-5.5% of our revenue. We do expect the cost inflation effects this year to be substantially lower. You know, in the first half of the year, I think the carryover pricing should offset the any inflation impacts that we have. Obviously, the carryover pricing in the second half will have less of an effect than it does in the first, because at the moment, you know, our pricing is relatively stable, but we're not having the same level of increases as we had through the whole of last year.
In the second half, we need to make sure that our cost actions are helping to continue to offset any inflationary impacts that we get. The price equation will be probably a lower impact. You know, I think in the first half we have a, we have a good balance. Between price and cost, and price should be offsetting cost. Now we also have some negative mix. Like I said, we had negative mix on fleet in the U.S. and on Compass. You know, there are some other offsets, but I think the overall balance is quite good between pricing and cost in H1. We need to work on the cost equation so that we're more competitive going into H2 on cost.
Definitely something that we execute. On BEV transition, yeah, I was looking at Ford's numbers as well. Obviously, we're all intrigued, it was interesting to see. You know, as you say, our European business has a substantial mix of LEV, PHEV vehicles, and we're still running nearly double, you know, around double-digit margins. I think we are clearly focused on running the transition and maintaining our double-digit margins. We've talked about since Dare Forward 2030, you're seeing a much higher level of penetration of electrification in Europe than Ford is running at the moment, and we're still at a higher margin level.
I think we need to continue to execute on having a very disciplined approach on pricing, having vehicles that are distinctive and competitive, and making sure that on the industrial side, we drive and avoid excessive complexity and diversity. you know, with our four electrified platforms being used globally, we leverage the scale that we have, which obviously was one of the key reasons why we formed Stellantis two years ago. we aren't expecting to be running negative contribution margins on BEVs, which as I understand from yesterday's comments, is where Ford is at the moment. Obviously, they are at the beginning of a journey, but, you know, we're clearly very focused on making money on the BEVs we sell. Thank you, José.
José Asumendi (Managing Director, Head of Global Automotive Research and Head of European Autos Equity Research)
Thanks so much. That's great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you much, sir. We'll now move to Horst Schneider calling from Bank of America. Please go ahead, sir.
Horst Schneider (Managing Director and Head of European Automotive Equity Research)
Good afternoon, Richard, and thanks for taking also my questions and also from my side, all the best for you, of course. Some of my questions have been asked already, therefore maybe two some more, maybe more add-on questions on details. First of all, on mix, since you don't report it anymore, a separate item in the bridge, maybe I have missed that, but can you maybe say how much now mix was positive or negative in the first quarter? You gave these trend indications by regions, but a total number would be helpful. On your guidance for Europe, market guidance, you say +5%, then you hint also to the logistical shortages that you have.
Your guidance basically implies that maybe in H2, the growth rates in Europe will turn negative. In that context, if that happens, you expect them to outperform the market because you just catch up on these shortages? What you expect to happen in that moment on pricing, if that happens? The other question, again, on electric vehicles, just an add-on onto the one from José. Your EVs, especially 208, e-2008, they are also towards the EUR 40,000 price range already. Now Tesla has cut the price to close to EUR 40,000 with the Tesla Model 3. Do you think that is impacting your price position? You see maybe the need that you need to lower the EV prices in Europe or not? Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you, Horst. On the mix, I think it's about one point. It's about half a billion EUR of negative impact on the mix.
Horst Schneider (Managing Director and Head of European Automotive Equity Research)
Uh-huh.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
It's not that significant in the walk. On the European market forecast, you know, I think we're being a bit prudent on the market. After one quarter, we don't feel one quarter warrants changing the full year outlook. The full European number was up, I think, about 11% overall. Obviously EU30 was up more than that. I think, you know, so far, we've seen a stronger market than we expected. Once we get through the first half, then we'll relook at our second half forecast. At the moment, we're focused on executing our H1 performance, having a good view on H2, then we'll upgrade the forecast on the outlook.
I wouldn't read too much into us thinking that the H2 is gonna be negative, also 'cause we've only got one quarter so far, right? It's just the start of the year. In terms of OBT, I think we're gonna improve our inbound transportation over the next few months, so I don't expect us to have significant impacts versus the trend in the market. Unfortunately, in the last few months, clearly the market has grown more than we have, and that's hurt our share, and that's really been a fulfillment issue on the deliveries. I'm sure that that issue over the next few months will be resolved. It will help us to regain share and therefore put us more in line with the market trend.
At the moment, we're a little bit behind the market trend because of that issue. On BEV pricing in Europe, you know, as we've talked about in the past, you know, we're holding our price position so that we make money on the vehicles we're selling. Our focus is to, you know, target parity of margins at a gross margin level in terms of euro per car, that's something, you know, that internally we look at very closely. We're not there across the portfolio today, but it's clearly something that we focus very strongly on. You know, so far, we haven't made any moves as a result of the competitive moves.
I think our products are very competitive in the segments they operate in. We're not directly competing with Tesla that much today in the segments we're in. You know, we're holding our price positions and focusing on managing our profitability across the portfolio.
Horst Schneider (Managing Director and Head of European Automotive Equity Research)
In the past, Richard, you have been always more negative on Europe than on North America, if I remember right. Taking that together, better volume outlook versus maybe worse price outlook, what's now the combination of that? You turned a little bit more bullish on Europe than before or not? I know a difficult question.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
I think, yeah. I think it's, yeah, you and I can have a beer and talk about that, but I think, you know.
Horst Schneider (Managing Director and Head of European Automotive Equity Research)
Yes.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
The market, you know, the economics, the macro, the geo, the regulatory, there's clearly a lot of volatility in the external factors that are acting on the industry, on demand and on consumer confidence. I think being prudent about volume and focusing very much on controlling our costs, maintaining the most competitive break-even point in the industry, and working on, you know, a very efficient machine is clearly the number one focus for us. If there's more volume out there, clearly we have the machines that we can speed it up and we can make more cars. I don't think we wanna build our plans based on overly optimistic margin-.
Horst Schneider (Managing Director and Head of European Automotive Equity Research)
Mm-hmm
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Market forecast given the volatility that we have today.
Horst Schneider (Managing Director and Head of European Automotive Equity Research)
All right. That's great. Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you very much.
Horst Schneider (Managing Director and Head of European Automotive Equity Research)
And again-
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you.
Horst Schneider (Managing Director and Head of European Automotive Equity Research)
Again, all the best.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much, sir. We'll now go to Mr. Martino De Ambroggi, Equita SIM. Please go ahead.
Martino De Ambroggi (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you. First of all, I join all participants in thanking you for many years working with us, and all the best, Richard. My first question is on prices again. Someone else, one of your competitors guided for a flat pricing full year after recording +5%, +4% in Q1. Have you a similar projection for your prices or you're confident to stay with a positive balance at your end? The second is on inflation. I understand that you commented substantially lower this year compared to last year. In the previous call, you guided for less than half of the EUR 9.5 billion. Is it probably even better after 1 quarter and the current visibility?
My last question is on BEV. First of all, I noticed the Avenger disappeared from your presentation. I don't know if you could update on pre-orders or orders, how they are performing. For the full year, the BEV deliveries could be close to 400,000 units or much lower. Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you, Martino. On pricing, as I said earlier, I think the first half pricing, 'cause of carryover pricing, is gonna be, in terms of comparatives, stronger than the second half, just because of the math of the increases we took last year through the year and this year being much flatter and holding our price position. You know, I think low single digit year-over-year improvements is potentially where we'll be, and that will be covering the level of inflation that we're expecting. As I said, as you said, which is true, I said inflation, we expected it to be around half or better than the EUR nine and a half billion we had last year. I would stick to that number for the moment.
Although we have seen some improvements on energy, we're also seeing, some challenges on outbound transportation. We have a lot of labor discussions this year and cost actions that we need to manage across our structural costs. I think that number is still a good number. Therefore, that would be around a similar number, low single digit number for the year. The two should hopefully offset or better. That's the target for us, is to manage our cost structure and avoid any negativity on our margins from, you know, from any pricing pressures we get in H2.
On the Avenger update, I don't have the numbers available, frankly, the vehicle obviously won a lot of prizes as it was launched in Europe. We have, you know, got some great feedback from the initial commercial interactions with dealers and customers. No bad news on Avenger, and we'll keep you updated on the next call as to how our performance is. I think it's a great start for the vehicle, and it's clearly a really important car for Jeep in Europe because it's putting us into the heart of the market with a very competitive BEV vehicle. On BEV deliveries, I'm not gonna give you a target number for BEV deliveries. We're clearly focused on continuing to grow year-over-year.
We have a lot of products in the marketplace. We're launching nine more this year to add to those that we already have. We start with the ProMaster BEV in the U.S. in the second half of the year. Obviously next year we start with a number of BEV launches in the U.S. and North America. I think a lot of very interesting product as well, quite differentiated BEV offering. Because, you know, in the end, it is about the product. It's not just whether it's a BEV or an internal combustion engine driving the product, but we need to focus on our brands being very competitive and giving customers products that they want to buy.
I think we have some really great product coming in the next, two years on BEV. Thank you very much, Martino.
Martino De Ambroggi (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you. All the best, Richard. Ciao.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for only one more question. That question will be coming from Mr. Patrick Hummel coming from UBS. Please go ahead, sir.
Patrick Hummel (Managing Director, Head of European and Global Autos Sector Research)
Yeah, thank you. Richard, also, many thanks for the great partnership and all the best for your new role. I think financial results clearly speak for your performance. The only task left for your successor is now to work on the PE. The last question I would have, Richard, regarding the EV profitability, the trajectory, I'd like to follow up a little bit more big picture. You know, the first generation of EVs in Europe was kind of a multi-energy platform, little CapEx and now you're spending for the next generation platforms that are currently being capitalized, I assume, for the most part. There will be a significantly higher share of those new EV platforms in your mix 2024, 2025.
And in light of what is obviously becoming a price war across the industry, how do you think about the competitiveness of the platforms? Are you reconsidering some strategic decisions when it comes to cost targets, when it comes to how you engineer these platforms, how you partner with suppliers, what kind of contracts you can accept with suppliers and whatnot? If you can just share a little more color on, you know, how you can safeguard that EV margin parity target in such an extremely competitive environment with much more investment involved on your end. Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thanks, Patrick. I absolutely agree with you that I will be cheering for an improvement in the PE. Anyone who can make that happen will be very popular with me too. on EV profitability and, you know, our strategy, I think our Dare Forward 2030 strategy clearly laid out that we have 4 platforms. Those 4 platforms are engineered for BEV and we believe that there's a lot of commonality between those platforms. We're very focused and, you know, the CEO and the team are extremely good at managing diversity complexity. We clearly need to use this transition to further concentrate our portfolio and have industrial solutions that drive commonality and allow us to leverage our global volumes to be very competitive on the cost of these vehicles.
I don't think, you know, the sort of the recent coverage on the pricing of BEVs is changing our approach at all. I think we've also been very clear about looking for partnerships with suppliers and with best-in-class subject matter experts on the electrification components. We have a number of those in Europe and in North America. I think our approach is a good one. I don't think we're trying to do too much verticalization, do everything in-house, and be exposed to, you know, overextending our capital and our human resources involved in this transition. I think we need to, we need to be very thoughtful. I think so far we have been.
Nothing that's happening in the marketplace is changing that. We're very focused on being extremely efficient, both on capital and on cost. You know, the global nature of our business and the reason why we merged to leverage the cost positions, I think gives us a lot of advantages compared to less global companies. We need to make sure that we use those to the best advantage.
Patrick Hummel (Managing Director, Head of European and Global Autos Sector Research)
Thank you, Richard.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you very much.
Patrick Hummel (Managing Director, Head of European and Global Autos Sector Research)
And again-
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Thank you, Patrick.
Patrick Hummel (Managing Director, Head of European and Global Autos Sector Research)
All the best.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
Same to you. Take care.
Operator (participant)
Thank you once again. As we have no further questions, I'd like to call back over to Mr. Palmer for any additional closing remarks. Thank you.
Richard Palmer (CFO)
No, no more remarks from me. I think we covered everything. I think the Q1 numbers were a very good start to the year, and we're confident that we'll continue to execute on all of the challenges ahead. Thank you very much to everybody. Bye-bye.
Operator (participant)
Thank you very much, Mr. Palmer. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your attendance. You may now disconnect. Have a good day and goodbye.