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SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (SUPN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 total revenues were $149.8M, up 4% year over year; excluding legacy Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR, non-GAAP revenues grew 26% to $126.8M . Adjusted operating earnings rose 16% to $25.9M despite a GAAP operating loss of $(10.3)M driven by contingent consideration tied to ONAPGO milestones .
  • Revenue modestly beat S&P Global consensus ($149.824M vs $147.936M; +$1.9M), and Primary EPS (normalized) beat (actual $0.44 vs $0.37); GAAP diluted EPS was a loss of $(0.21) due to taxes and the ONAPGO milestone accounting, creating a mixed optics but clean underlying run-rate improvement for core brands. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • ONAPGO (apomorphine infusion device) launched in April; initial physician response and enrollment forms across >75% of territories indicate early traction, supported by an established PD infrastructure .
  • Full-year 2025 guidance was reiterated (total revenues $600–$630M; non-GAAP adjusted operating earnings $105–$130M), signaling confidence in Qelbree and GOCOVRI momentum while acknowledging continued generic erosion in legacy products .
  • Potential stock reaction catalysts: continued Qelbree prescription and prescriber growth, ONAPGO adoption curve, and GOCOVRI Medicare co-pay tailwinds; watch for Paragraph IV ANDAs on Qelbree (press release May 28) as an overhang and litigation timeline risk .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Qelbree net sales up 44% YoY to $64.7M; prescriptions up 22%, with March 2025 reaching an all-time high of 75,277. “Our first quarter results reflect, once again, double-digit revenue growth from our core products” — CEO Jack Khattar .
  • GOCOVRI net sales up 16% YoY to $30.7M; Medicare IRA lowered average co-pay by 42%, with 84% of Medicare prescriptions costing < $25, supporting prescription growth and possibly offsetting increased mandatory payments .
  • Non-GAAP adjusted operating earnings increased 16% to $25.9M, demonstrating underlying profitability of the core portfolio despite legacy erosion and launch investments .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP net loss was $(11.8)M (diluted EPS $(0.21)); operating loss widened to $(10.3)M primarily due to higher contingent consideration tied to ONAPGO milestones and higher SG&A/R&D .
  • Legacy erosion: Trokendi XR (-20% YoY to $12.8M) and Oxtellar XR (-62% YoY to $10.2M) continued to weigh on reported growth; management expects further erosion in 2025 .
  • Tax contributed to optics: despite a pre-tax loss, income tax expense was $6.0M, exacerbating the GAAP net loss and widening the gap versus normalized EPS optics .

Financial Results

Reported vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricActual (Q1 2025)Consensus (Q1 2025)Surprise
Revenue ($USD)$149,824,000 $147,936,000*+$1,888,000*
Primary EPS (Normalized)$0.4363*$0.37333*+$0.0630*
GAAP Diluted EPS$(0.21) n/an/a

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Income Statement Trend

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($USD)$175,689,000 $174,159,000 $149,824,000
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD)$40,845,000 $21,405,000 $(10,256,000)
Net Income (Loss) ($USD)$38,497,000 $15,328,000 $(11,827,000)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.69 $0.27 $(0.21)
EBIT Margin %23.3% (calc: 40.845/175.689) 12.3% (calc: 21.405/174.159) -6.8% (calc: -10.256/149.824)

Year-over-Year Comparison

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
Total Revenues ($USD)$143,644,000 $149,824,000 +4%
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD)$(3,153,000) $(10,256,000) n/a
Net Income (Loss) ($USD)$124,000 $(11,827,000) n/a
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.00 $(0.21) n/a

Product Net Sales Breakdown

ProductQ1 2024 ($M)Q1 2025 ($M)YoY %
Qelbree45.1 64.7 +44%
GOCOVRI26.5 30.7 +16%
APOKYN16.7 15.0 -10%
Trokendi XR16.0 12.8 -20%
Oxtellar XR26.9 10.2 -62%
Other (MYOBLOC, XADAGO, Osmolex ER)7.2 8.6 +19%
Total Net Product Sales138.4 142.0 +3%
Royalty, Licensing & Other5.2 7.8 +51%
Total Revenues143.6 149.8 +4%

Sequential Product Net Sales (Q4 2024 → Q1 2025)

ProductQ4 2024 ($M)Q1 2025 ($M)Seq %
Qelbree74.4 64.7 -13.0%
GOCOVRI36.9 30.7 -16.8%
APOKYN20.1 15.0 -25.4%
Trokendi XR14.8 12.8 -13.5%
Oxtellar XR13.2 10.2 -22.7%
Other7.0 8.6 +22.9%
Total Net Product Sales166.4 142.0 -14.7%

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025YoY
Qelbree Prescriptions (IQVIA)214,908 +22%
Qelbree Prescribers34,416 up from 27,902
Qelbree March Monthly Rx75,277 (all-time high) +25% vs prior year
GOCOVRI Medicare Avg Co-pay-42% vs Q1’24 —
GOCOVRI Medicare Rx < $2584% —

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Feb 25, 2025)Current Guidance (May 6, 2025)Change
Total Revenues ($M)FY 2025$600–$630 $600–$630 Maintained
Combined R&D + SG&A ($M)FY 2025$435–$460 $435–$460 Maintained
GAAP Operating Earnings (Loss) ($M)FY 2025$(15) to $10 $(15) to $10 Maintained
Adjusted Operating Earnings (Non-GAAP) ($M)FY 2025$105–$130 $105–$130 Maintained
Legacy Net Sales (Trokendi XR + Oxtellar XR) ($M)FY 2025~$65–$75 (included in total) ~$65–$75 (included) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Previous Mentions)Q4 2024 (Previous Mentions)Q1 2025 (Current Period)Trend
Qelbree Momentum68% YoY net sales growth; 194k Rx; prescribers +2k; gross-to-net slightly below 45–50% 60% YoY net sales; updated label incl. 5-HT2C partial agonism; 214.6k Q4 Rx; adult focus 44% YoY net sales; 214,908 Q1 Rx; March record 75,277; gross-to-net pressure seasonally Strong, consistent growth with adult penetration tailwinds
GOCOVRI DynamicsRecovery to $36M; +8% YoY +15% YoY; ONAPGO approval aligns PD portfolio +16% YoY; Medicare co-pay cuts boosting volume; 84% <$25 co-pay Medicare tailwinds driving prescriptions
Legacy ErosionTrokendi down; Oxtellar generic entry in Sep; combined legacy ~$155M FY’24 Combined legacy down 22% FY’24; guide $65–$75M FY’25 Continued erosion embedded in FY’25 guide Ongoing headwind; well-telegraphed
ONAPGO Launch/PD StrategySPN-830 PDUFA Feb 1, 2025 ONAPGO approved; launch 2Q25; minimal 2025 sales in guide Launched April; early positive physician response; >75% territories with enrollment forms Early uptake encouraging; slow/bolus start possible
R&D Execution (SPN-820; SPN-817; SPN-443)820 open-label MDD rapid response/remission; 817 seizure reductions; 443 Phase 1 started 820 TRD Phase 2b miss; label update aids ADHD positioning; 817 Phase 2b started; 443 PK complete Plan follow-on 820 Phase 2b in MDD with intermittent dosing; 817 Phase 2b ongoing; 443 lead indication by YE25 820 pivot to MDD dosing strategy; 817 advancing; 443 progressing
Tariffs/Supply Chain——Management flags tariff exposure risk framework; shielded on key brands; risk to EU/Canada sourced products Monitoring; limited near-term impact

Management Commentary

  • “Driving this growth was the robust performance of both Qelbree and GOCOVRI… These 2 products collectively accounted for 67% of total net sales” — CEO Jack Khattar .
  • “Initial response from physicians [to ONAPGO] has been encouraging… more than 75% of the sales territories have generated one or more patient enrollment form” — CEO Jack Khattar .
  • “Operating loss… was primarily due to higher contingent consideration loss related to the achievement of ONAPGO-related milestones” — CFO Tim Dec .
  • “We reiterate our financial guidance for total revenue… and non-GAAP operating earnings” — CFO Tim Dec .

Q&A Highlights

  • Qelbree gross-to-net: Q1 typically pressured; management cited early 50s% (51–52%) in Q1 with improvement expected in Q2/Q3 barring one-offs .
  • Qelbree annual consensus comfort: management expressed comfort with ~$290M annual sales level, while not guiding by product .
  • ONAPGO infrastructure and conversion: hub, nurse educators, reimbursement in place; patient enrollment forms-to-fulfillment conversion “north of 40–50%” and timing consistent with or better than industry averages .
  • GOCOVRI Medicare co-pay dynamics: average co-pay down 42%; 84% under $25; increases in prescriptions likely offset manufacturer payment impacts .
  • SPN-820 strategy: shift to intermittent dosing (twice weekly 2,400mg) in MDD; target placebo-adjusted MADRS delta of ~5–8 points in future study, consistent with clinical meaningfulness .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue beat: Actual $149.824M vs $147.936M consensus; +$1.888M. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Primary EPS (Normalized) beat: Actual $0.4363 vs $0.37333 consensus; +$0.0630. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Note: Company reports GAAP diluted EPS of $(0.21), which differs from normalized Primary EPS due to tax and non-cash items (contingent consideration, amortization, SBC), and the company does not provide adjusted EPS—only adjusted operating earnings .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core growth intact: Qelbree and GOCOVRI continue to drive underlying revenue and non-GAAP earnings; watch Q2/Q3 gross-to-net normalization for Qelbree and continued adult prescriber gains .
  • ONAPGO launch looks constructive: early physician engagement and established PD infrastructure shorten ramp risks; near-term revenue contribution is small, but adoption narratives can support sentiment .
  • Optics vs fundamentals: GAAP loss reflects ONAPGO milestone accounting and taxes; normalized EPS and adjusted operating earnings trends better reflect core health .
  • Legacy erosion manageable and embedded in guide: continued headwinds from Trokendi XR/Oxtellar XR are already reflected in FY’25 outlook, limiting incremental downside surprise risk .
  • Medicare tailwinds for GOCOVRI: lower co-pays are driving prescription growth; monitor whether volume offsets manufacturer payment impacts over 2025 .
  • Pipeline pivots: SPN-820 strategy refined to intermittent dosing in MDD; SPN-817 advancing to Phase 2b; SPN-443 ready for lead indication decision by YE’25, sustaining medium-term optionality .
  • Risk monitor: Paragraph IV ANDAs for Qelbree filed May 28 (litigation response planned), and potential tariff exposure for some non-U.S.-manufactured products; neither impacts Q1 results but are relevant for positioning/trading over 2025 .

Sources

  • Q1 2025 8-K earnings materials and Item 2.02:
  • Q1 2025 press release:
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcript:
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 press release and call ; Q3 2024 press release and call
  • Other relevant press releases: Paragraph IV ANDA filings (Qelbree)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*