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SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (SUPN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Total revenue grew 9% year over year to $192.1M, driven by Qelbree (+31% YoY), GOCOVRI (+15% YoY), the addition of ZURZUVAE collaboration revenue ($20.2M), and ONAPGO’s first full quarter ($6.8M) .
  • Bold beat on revenue vs consensus: $192.1M actual vs $180.2M estimate (+6.6%); Primary EPS missed consensus: $0.61 vs $0.82; GAAP diluted EPS was a loss of $0.80 due to acquisition-related costs and incremental amortization tied to Sage/ZURZUVAE and ONAPGO * .
  • Guidance raised: FY25 total revenue to $685–$705M (from $670–$700M) and non‑GAAP adjusted operating earnings to $125–$145M (from $105–$135M) .
  • Near-term stock narrative: revenue strength and guidance raise offset by ONAPGO supply constraints (paused new patient initiations) and GAAP losses; management emphasized resolving cartridge-filling capacity bottlenecks and sustaining momentum across four growth products .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Four growth products delivered combined revenues of $149.2M (+52% YoY): Qelbree prescriptions up 23% YoY with back-to-school strength; GOCOVRI continued prescriber growth; ZURZUVAE collaboration revenue added $20.2M .
    • ONAPGO generated $6.8M in first full quarter; cumulative strong demand with >1,300 enrollment forms from >450 prescribers through Sep 30; CEO: “encouraging start to the launch of ONAPGO” .
    • FY25 guidance raised: total revenue to $685–$705M and non-GAAP adjusted operating earnings to $125–$145M; CFO reiterated strong cash and marketable securities of ~$281M .

  • What Went Wrong

    • ONAPGO supply constraints forced pausing deliveries to new patients; prioritizing existing patients while building inventory; bottleneck is cartridge filling capacity at partner facility .
    • GAAP results swung to operating loss of $60.2M and diluted LPS of $0.80 vs prior-year profit, largely due to ~$70M acquisition-related costs, share-based compensation acceleration ($22.9M), and incremental amortization from ZURZUVAE/ONAPGO .
    • Legacy brands continue to erode: Oxtellar XR (-59% YoY) and Trokendi XR (-35% YoY) dragged total net product sales slightly (-1% YoY) despite growth products .

Financial Results

Consolidated Income Metrics vs Prior Periods

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$149.8 $165.5 $192.1
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$142.0 $158.0 $168.5
Collaboration Revenue (ZURZUVAE) ($USD Millions)— — $20.2
Royalty, Licensing & Other ($USD Millions)$7.8 $7.5 $3.4
GAAP Operating Earnings (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(10.3) $12.1 $(60.2)
GAAP Net Earnings (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(11.8) $22.5 $(45.1)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.21) $0.40 $(0.80)

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Quarterly)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$149.8 $165.5 $192.1
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)147.9*154.1*180.2*
Primary EPS Actual ($USD)0.44*0.91*0.61*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)0.37*0.47*0.82*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

  • Q3 2025 revenue: bold beat (+$11.9M, +6.6% vs consensus); Primary EPS: bold miss (-$0.21 vs consensus); GAAP diluted EPS: $(0.80) reflecting acquisition-related and amortization costs .

Product and Collaboration Revenue Breakdown

Product / Revenue Line ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Qelbree$64.7 $77.6 $81.4
GOCOVRI$30.7 $36.7 $40.8
APOKYN$15.0 $12.8 $10.4
Trokendi XR$12.8 $11.2 $10.0
Oxtellar XR$10.2 $11.6 $12.1
ONAPGO— (launched April) $1.6 $6.8
Other (MYOBLOC, XADAGO, Osmolex ER)$8.6 $6.5 $7.0
Collaboration Revenue (ZURZUVAE)— — $20.2

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Qelbree IQVIA Prescriptions (units)214,908 225,254 238,770

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Aug 5, 2025)Current Guidance (Nov 4, 2025)Change
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)FY 2025$670–$700 $685–$705 Raised
Combined R&D and SG&A ($USD Millions)FY 2025$505–$530 $505–$530 Maintained
Operating Loss (GAAP) ($USD Millions)FY 2025$(70)–$(80) $(65)–$(75) Improved (less loss)
Adjusted Operating Earnings (non‑GAAP) ($USD Millions)FY 2025$105–$135 $125–$145 Raised
  • CFO noted updated assumption for combined net sales of Trokendi XR + Oxtellar XR at $75–$85M (vs $65–$75M prior), embedded in total revenue guidance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
ONAPGO Launch & DemandLaunched in Apr; early interest; $1.6M Q2; >750 enrollment forms, >300 prescribers by Q2 $6.8M Q3; >1,300 enrollment forms; >450 prescribers; paused new initiations due to cartridge filling capacity constraints Strong demand; near-term supply bottleneck
ZURZUVAE CollaborationSage acquisition closed Jul 31; guidance updated to include ZURZUVAE $20.2M collab revenue; +150% YoY U.S. sales; +19% QoQ per Biogen Accelerating contribution
ADHD Market & QelbreeQ1/Q2 prescriptions +22–23% YoY; prescribers expanding Q3 prescriptions +23% YoY; adult +32% vs pediatric +19%; strong back-to-school Sustained growth; adult segment outpacing
R&D Pipeline (SPN‑817/820/443)SPN‑817 P2b ongoing; SPN‑443 PK completed; SPN‑820 follow‑on P2b planned SPN‑817 P2b ongoing; SPN‑820 P2b to start by YE25; SPN‑443 Phase 1 in 2026 Progression per plan
Cost Structure & Non‑GAAPQ1/Q2 adjusted op. earnings; legacy erosion noted GAAP loss due to ~$70M acquisition costs; adjusted op. earnings $41.9M; reconciliation provided Transition through acquisition accounting

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our strong operating results continued… momentum from Qelbree and GOCOVRI, collaboration revenue from ZURZUVAE, and an encouraging start to the launch of ONAPGO.” Focus on “performance of our four growth products… to deliver sustained growth and long-term value” .
  • ONAPGO supply update: prioritizing existing patients; pausing new starts; working to resume initiations; constraint specific to cartridge filling capacity, not pumps .
  • Strategy: Expect Sage integration substantially completed by year-end; potential synergies up to $200M annually by mid‑2026; disciplined approach to any ZURZUVAE sales force expansion with Biogen .

Q&A Highlights

  • ONAPGO demand vs supply: Management sees “vast” opportunity, expects to overcome constraints; currently >400 patients on therapy; uncertain Q4 trajectory due to fluid supply timing .
  • ONAPGO economics: Annual WAC expected roughly in line with peers; gross‑to‑net likely below ~35% Medicare deduction assumption but still evolving; margins similar to APOKYN manufacturing setup .
  • Competitive positioning: Emphasized apomorphine’s mechanistic differentiation and best‑in‑class patient support; avoided direct comparisons without head‑to‑head data .
  • ZURZUVAE commercial: Expansion decisions coordinated with Biogen; recent expansion showing impact; open to future adjustments; ownership of additional 50% not committed but open to discussion .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue beat: $192.1M actual vs $180.2M consensus (+6.6%); Primary EPS miss: $0.61 actual vs $0.82 consensus (−$0.21). GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.80), impacted by ~$70M acquisition-related costs (including $22.9M share-based comp acceleration) and higher amortization for ZURZUVAE/ONAPGO *.
  • Prior quarters: Q2 revenue beat (+$11.4M vs $154.1M); Primary EPS beat ($0.91 vs $0.47). Q1 revenue slight beat (+$2.0M vs $147.9M); Primary EPS beat ($0.44 vs $0.37)*.
  • Implication: Street likely raises revenue estimates and non‑GAAP operating expectations following guidance increase; EPS modeling requires explicit treatment of acquisition and amortization impacts and ONAPGO supply pace. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue momentum is broad‑based across four growth assets; bold revenue beat and raised FY guidance support a constructive near‑term setup .
  • GAAP losses reflect one‑time and non‑cash acquisition effects; non‑GAAP adjusted operating earnings remain solid ($41.9M in Q3), but EPS optics may stay noisy near term .
  • ONAPGO demand is strong; supply resolution (cartridge capacity) is the near‑term catalyst. Watch updates on resuming new patient initiations .
  • ZURZUVAE collaboration scaling quickly; integration on track; potential longer‑term synergy capture (up to $200M annually by mid‑2026) underpins margin trajectory .
  • Legacy erosion (Trokendi/Oxtellar) continues but is increasingly de‑emphasized in revenue mix; guidance embeds higher combined contribution ($75–$85M) which reduces downside risk to total revenue .
  • For trading: revenue beats and guidance raises are stock‑supportive; monitor supply updates and any Biogen/SUPN decisions on ZURZUVAE commercial expansion for sentiment shifts .
  • Medium term: ADHD adult growth and Parkinson’s franchise infrastructure provide platform scale; pipeline (SPN‑817/820/443) adds optionality into 2026 .