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    STANLEY BLACK & DECKER (SWK)

    SWK Q2 2025: Forecasts Mid-30% Gross Margin Despite $0.65 Tariff Drag

    Reported on Jul 29, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$73.93Last close (Jul 28, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$68.22Open (Jul 29, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-5.71(-7.72%)
    • Margin Expansion Potential: Management expects gross margins to expand into the mid‑30% range in Q4 and achieve or approach 35% by the back half of next year, driven by tariff mitigation, disciplined pricing, and execution of cost-saving initiatives [Speaker 5, Speaker 2][Speaker 7].
    • Effective Pricing Strategy: The sequential price increases have been well received, with a one‑for‑one offset between price and volume, demonstrating that customers are absorbing the increases without changing buying behavior, thereby supporting revenue stability [Speaker 8, Speaker 3].
    • Robust Supply Chain Transformation: Ongoing supply chain improvements aiming to deliver targeted cost savings (approximately $500 million in the transformation program) underscore management’s commitment to mitigating tariff impacts and enhancing profitability in a volatile environment [Speaker 5, Speaker 7].
    • Persistent Tariff Headwinds: The company continues to face significant tariff pressures, with guidance reflecting a $0.65 EPS headwind and an estimated $800 million annualized tariff cost. These challenges not only add cost but also create uncertainty over margin recovery and timing delays in achieving the targeted 35% adjusted gross margin.
    • Weak Organic Revenue and Supply Chain Disruptions: Q2 organic revenue declined by 3% overall, impacted by a slow outdoor buying season and notable shipment disruptions due to tariff-related customer reactions. This points to underlying vulnerabilities in revenue growth and operational performance.
    • Dependence on Price Increases to Offset Volume Declines: The discussion emphasized a one-for-one tradeoff between price and volume. While price increases have been executed as planned, the reliance on pricing adjustments to counteract a 5% decline in volume in certain segments raises concerns that customer price sensitivity or further volume drops could restrict future top-line growth.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue (SWK)

    -2%

    The 2% decline in total revenue ($3,945.2 million vs. $4,024.4 million) appears to reflect challenges that have persisted from previous periods, including currency headwinds and the effects of prior divestitures which were seen in earlier quarters. These factors, compounded by muted consumer demand and lower infrastructure volume observed in prior periods, likely contributed to the current revenue pressure.

    Tools & Outdoor Segment

    -2%

    The 2% YoY decrease in Tools & Outdoor sales ($3,461.4 million vs. $3,528.7 million) continues trends seen in prior periods where volume declines and adverse foreign currency impacts offset underlying organic growth, despite cost efficiencies and innovation initiatives reported earlier. This suggests that market headwinds and regional demand challenges remain a consistent factor affecting performance.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    GAAP EPS

    FY 2025

    $3.30 ± $0.15

    $3.45 ± $0.10

    raised

    Adjusted EPS

    FY 2025

    $4.50

    $4.65

    raised

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    $500 million

    $600 million

    raised

    Total Company Sales

    FY 2025

    Increase, low single digits

    Retract slightly

    lowered

    Organic Revenue

    FY 2025

    Low to mid-single-digit expansion

    Flat year-over-year

    lowered

    Global Tools & Outdoor Revenue

    FY 2025

    Expand, low to mid-single digits

    Decline approximately 1%

    lowered

    Engineered Fastening Revenue

    FY 2025

    Low single-digit organic growth

    1% organic growth

    no change

    Adjusted EBITDA Margins

    FY 2025

    Expected to expand

    Expected to expand

    no change

    Adjusted Gross Margin

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Back-half expansion; target ≥35%

    no prior guidance

    Pretax Non-GAAP Adjustments

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Estimated $205M–$250M

    no prior guidance

    Deleveraging Goals

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Net debt/adjusted EBITDA ≤2.5x

    no prior guidance

    Gross Tariff Cost

    FY 2025

    $1.7 billion

    Approximately $800 million

    lowered

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Organic Revenue
    Q2 2025
    Expected to decline flat to low single digits
    Actual total revenue was 3,945.2Compared to 4,024.4In Q2 2024 (≈2% decline)
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Tariff Headwinds and Trade Uncertainty

    In Q1 2025, tariffs were described with high gross annualized impacts (up to $1.7B) with detailed percentage tariffs from China, Mexico and others. In Q4 2024, the discussion focused on a smaller scenario with 10% tariffs and an unmitigated impact of about $90–$100M.

    In Q2 2025, the company presented updated figures with an $800M annualized gross tariff cost (with multiple tariff rates including 30% on China and non‐USMCA goods) and a net P&L impact of approximately $65M, along with detailed mitigation strategies.

    Consistent concern but evolving estimates and focus on mitigation; the narrative has shifted toward refined cost assessments and proactive supply chain and pricing actions.

    Pricing Strategy and Price-Volume Tradeoffs

    In Q1 2025, a high single-digit price increase was implemented with plans for a second increase in Q3, emphasizing the company’s pricing power amid tariff pressures. In Q4 2024, pricing actions and promotional decisions were used to mitigate tariff impacts while balancing margin challenges.

    In Q2 2025, the company again emphasized pricing measures with a planned modest second price increase in Q4, noting a one-for-one offset between price increases and volume declines and confirming stable pricing power.

    The focus on timely price adjustments remains steady with an enduring reliance on pricing to offset tariff pressure and preserve margins.

    Supply Chain Transformation and Component Sourcing/USMCA Compliance

    In Q1 2025, the transformation was discussed in terms of reducing China exposure (15% currently) and moving dual-sourced SKUs to Mexico while addressing USMCA compliance challenges. In Q4 2024, progress was noted with significant cost savings (approximately $1.5B accumulated) though USMCA issues were less detailed.

    In Q2 2025, the company detailed the final stages of its multi‐year supply chain transformation, highlighting $1.8B in run‐rate savings so far and a strategic plan to reduce Chinese production to less than 5% by 2026 with explicit mention of component sourcing challenges and USMCA compliance.

    An ongoing and accelerated transformation program with increased specificity on compliance metrics and sourcing adjustments.

    Margin Management: Expansion Potential vs. Gross Margin Headwinds

    In Q1 2025, margins benefited from a 140‐bps improvement and focused on cost savings and tariff mitigation, while anticipating pressure from new tariff costs. In Q4 2024, Q4 margins reached 31.2% (a 140-basis point improvement) but were offset by currency, promotions, and tariff uncertainties.

    In Q2 2025, the company projected year‐over‐year margin expansion in H2 along with headwinds from tariff costs, volume declines and rare earth supply issues – aiming for mid-30% range in late 2026.

    While the pursuit of a 35%+ margin target continues, the narrative reflects a balanced view of expansion potential amid persistent tariff and volume pressures.

    SG&A Expense and Operating Cost Management

    Q1 2025 highlighted a disciplined SG&A savings plan with roughly flat savings across quarters and $1.7B in cost savings to date, focusing on protecting growth investments. In Q4 2024, SG&A was targeted at about 22% of net sales with significant cost savings achieved (around $500M in 2024) and continued strategic investments in operations.

    In Q2 2025, the company reported $150M in pretax run‐rate cost savings (bringing total to $1.8B) and noted that incremental mitigation expenses in SG&A partly offset FX benefits, reaffirming ongoing operational excellence.

    A consistent emphasis on operational discipline and cost transformation, with incremental savings being realized even as mitigation efforts add short-term expense pressures.

    Organic Revenue Performance and Core Brand Growth

    In Q1 2025, organic revenue was modest (around 1% growth) with contrasts among segments – DIY softness offset by DEWALT’s mid-single-digit gains, while some segments experienced declines. In Q4 2024, organic revenue grew 3% driven by strong holiday performance and DEWALT momentum despite weak consumer/DIY trends.

    In Q2 2025, organic revenue fell by 2% overall and 3% organically, with DEWALT showing strength but declines in hand tools (due to tariff shipment disruptions) and outdoor products (due to a slow buying season ).

    The mixed organic performance continues with DEWALT as a consistent bright spot; however, overall growth remains challenged by market volatility and tariff-induced disruptions.

    Strategic Investments in Innovation and Market Activation

    Q1 2025 underscored significant investments in innovation and market activation, including new product launches (like DEWALT Tough wire) and focused initiatives in underpenetrated markets like Saudi Arabia. In Q4 2024, emphasis was placed on core brand focus, increased field personnel (about 400 new resources), and a $100M pipeline investment.

    In Q2 2025, the innovation narrative expanded with the launch of initiatives like M Suite, alongside a reinvestment of over $100M in 2025 targeting market activation, brand strengthening (DEWALT, Stanley, Craftsman), and further innovation investments.

    Ongoing robust commitment to innovation and market activation, with Q2 introducing new digital/management innovations while sustaining traditional brand investments.

    Inventory Accounting and LIFO Adjustment Pressures

    In Q1 2025, LIFO adjustments were highlighted as causing a significant Q2 cost pressure (estimated $200–$250M impact) due to tariff variances that roll off the balance sheet. In Q4 2024, management warned of potential LIFO adjustment pressures caused by a lag in tariff mitigation, projecting headwinds in early 2025.

    In Q2 2025, the discussion noted that timing differences (such as a $0.10 per unit operational upside) were due to less tariff expense recognized in the quarter, with the anticipation that early 2026 may be “a bit noisy” as tariff charges roll off.

    Inventory accounting remains a persistent challenge; while some timing benefits were seen in Q2, future periods are expected to experience continued adjustment pressures as mitigation actions take effect.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: What is the Q4 margin target?
      A: Management expects Q4 margins to expand by roughly 200 basis points, targeting a mid-30% level by year-end, driven by pricing actions and supply chain efficiencies.

    2. Tariff Guidance
      Q: What about the $65 headwind update?
      A: They explained that the Q2 beat arose partly from tax timing and tariff expense adjustments, with the updated forecast reflecting a $0.65 headwind from tariff impacts for the year.

    3. Pricing Execution
      Q: How are the pricing increases tracking?
      A: Management confirmed that the first round of price increases is fully in line with expectations, with a second, modest round scheduled for early Q4 to sustain the current pricing dynamics.

    4. USMCA & Tariff Details
      Q: Are price actions and tariff plans clear?
      A: They noted that the initial price increase has been implemented and channel feedback is positive, while efforts to meet USMCA standards are underway, with tariff costs estimated at around $800M annualized run rate.

    5. Inventory Trends
      Q: Any signs of channel destocking?
      A: Management described channel inventories as healthy and consistent with historical levels, attributing any mid-quarter volatility to temporary promotional adjustments rather than a broader destock trend.

    6. Outdoor Trends
      Q: What’s driving outdoor sales performance?
      A: They mentioned a delayed start due to weather, but later robust point-of-sale activity helped stabilize the market, with no major changes impacting overall performance.

    7. Craftsman Outlook
      Q: How is the Craftsman brand performing?
      A: Management indicated that Craftsman is mirroring overall market trends in the DIY segment, showing steady performance despite market headwinds, with future growth opportunities as market conditions improve.

    Research analysts covering STANLEY BLACK & DECKER.