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AT&T INC. (T)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was operationally solid: revenues grew 2.0% year over year to $30.6B, adjusted EBITDA rose to $11.5B, and adjusted EPS was $0.51; AT&T reiterated all FY25 guidance and said it will begin share repurchases in Q2 2025 .
  • Mobility and Consumer Wireline drove growth: Mobility service revenue +4.1% YoY with 324K postpaid phone net adds and postpaid phone ARPU +1.8%; Consumer Wireline fiber revenue +19% with 261K fiber net adds and total broadband +137K net adds (7th straight quarter of broadband growth) .
  • Headwinds persisted in Business Wireline (revenue −9.1% YoY; EBITDA −1.8% YoY) and Mexico (revenue −8.7% YoY on FX) though Mexico EBITDA improved; postpaid churn normalized higher (phone-only churn 0.83%) and Mobility margins were modestly lower due to launch/marketing costs .
  • Consensus context: Adjusted EPS of $0.51 was essentially in line with S&P Global consensus of ~$0.515*, while revenue of $30.626B topped ~$30.362B consensus*; FY25 guide maintained (Adj. EPS $1.97–$2.07; FCF $16B+) provides estimate stability into Q2’s planned buyback start .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Mobility and Fiber momentum: “We are growing the right way as customers continue to choose AT&T Fiber and 5G wireless,” with Mobility service revenue +4.1% and 324K postpaid phone net adds; fiber revenue +19% with 261K fiber net adds .
    • Convergence flywheel: More than “4 out of every 10 AT&T Fiber households also now subscribing to our mobility services,” driving higher lifetime value for converged accounts (15%+ uplift), per CEO .
    • Cash generation and leverage: FCF was $3.1B (ex-DIRECTV), CFO reaffirmed ~$4B FCF in Q2 and $16B+ for FY25; net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA at 2.63x supports Q2 buybacks .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Business Wireline secular decline: Revenue −9.1% YoY (legacy/transitional −17.4%), EBITDA −1.8% YoY; CFO highlighted some Q1 benefit from vendor settlements (~$100M total; ~$45M in Business Wireline) that won’t recur, implying normalization ahead .
    • Churn normalization and margin mix: Postpaid phone-only churn rose to 0.83% and Mobility EBITDA margin −50 bps YoY on launch advertising and higher acquisition/upgrade activity .
    • Tariff uncertainty and upgrade pull-forward: CFO flagged elevated upgrades in early Q2 following reciprocal tariff news, potentially pulling forward H2 activity; management expects to manage within FY25 guidance, but visibility is diminished .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q1 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($B)$30.028 $32.298 $30.626 $30.362*
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$0.47 $0.56 $0.61 —
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.48 $0.54 $0.51 $0.515*
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)$11.046 $10.791 $11.533 —
Free Cash Flow ($B)$2.773 $4.832 $3.146 —

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

  • YoY: Revenue +2.0%, Adj. EBITDA +4.4%, Adj. EPS +6.3%, FCF +$0.37B .
  • Seq (vs Q4): Typical seasonality and higher Q4 capex: revenue down from Q4 peak; FCF lower vs Q4 as expected cadence normalizes .

Segment performance

Segment (Q1)Revenue ($B)YoYOperating Income ($B)YoYEBITDA ($B)YoYEBITDA Margin
Mobility$21.570 +4.7% $6.740 +4.2% $9.266 +3.5% 43.0%
Business Wireline$4.468 −9.1% $(0.098) —$1.400 −1.8% 31.3%
Consumer Wireline$3.522 +5.1% $0.349 +63.8% $1.298 +18.6% 36.9%
Latin America (Mexico)$0.971 −8.7% $0.043 —$0.193 +7.2% 19.9%

Key operating KPIs

KPI (Q1)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Postpaid phone net adds (000s)349 324
Postpaid phone-only churn0.72% 0.83%
Postpaid phone ARPU ($)55.57 56.56
AT&T Fiber net adds (000s)252 261
Broadband net adds (000s)55 137
AT&T Internet Air net adds (000s)110 181
Fiber ARPU ($)68.61 72.85
Locations passed with fiber (M)—29.5

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (1/27/25)Current Guidance (4/23/25)Change
Consolidated service revenue growthFY25Low-single-digit Low-single-digit Maintained
Mobility service revenue growthFY25Higher end of 2–3% Higher end of 2–3% Maintained
Consumer fiber broadband revenue growthFY25Mid-teens Mid-teens Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA growthFY25≥3% ≥3% Maintained
Mobility EBITDA growthFY25Higher end of 3–4% Higher end of 3–4% Maintained
Business Wireline EBITDAFY25Decline mid-teens Decline mid-teens Maintained
Consumer Wireline EBITDAFY25High-single to low-double-digit growth High-single to low-double-digit growth Maintained
Capital investmentFY25~$22B ~$22B Maintained
Free cash flowFY25$16B+ (ex-DIRECTV) $16B+ Maintained
Adjusted EPSFY25$1.97–$2.07 (ex-DIRECTV) $1.97–$2.07 Maintained
Share repurchases2025Initiate 2H25 Commence in Q2 2025 Pulled forward

Dividend reminder: Quarterly dividend $0.2775 per share declared for May 1, 2025 payment .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Converged fiber + 5G strategyMobility service +4.0% YoY; 226K fiber net adds; reiterated converged leadership “More than 4 in 10 fiber households take wireless,” higher LTV; converged gross adds rising Strengthening
Tariffs/supply chainNotable Open RAN costs in 2024; goodwill impairment in BW; macro visibility lower Reciprocal tariffs raise device/network cost risk; CFO sees upgrade pull-forward but within guide Monitoring risk; manageable
Regulatory/copper decommissionFCC approvals to move away from legacy in wire centers; set up for cost takeout Management confident execution is now operational (tailwinds), 25% wire centers with “clean sailing” Accelerating execution
Business WirelineHigh-teens EBITDA decline guided for 2024; Q3 revenue −11.8% YoY Q1 revenue −9.1% YoY; some nonrecurring vendor settlements; expect normalization Still pressured; cost actions help
Capital returnsTarget leverage 2.5x in 1H25; buybacks in 2H25 Leverage 2.63x; start buybacks in Q2 2025 Pull-forward catalyst
FirstNet/public safety>6.7M connections by YE’24 >7M FirstNet connections milestone noted Growing steadily

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus: “We are uniquely positioned to win…customers continue to choose AT&T Fiber and 5G wireless” and priorities “have not changed” from Analyst Day .
  • Convergence economics: “More than 4 and 10 AT&T fiber households also now subscribing to our mobility services… accounts with both…have lifetime values that are more than 15% greater” .
  • Tariffs/macro: “Announced tariffs could potentially increase the cost of smartphones and other devices…we believe we can manage the anticipated higher costs within the 2025 financial guidance” .
  • Capital allocation: “We are now in a position to begin…share repurchases… at least $3B completed by year-end and the remainder during 2026” .
  • Execution on legacy exit: “About 25% of our wire centers… have fairly clean sailing to act on all the plans…to sunset [legacy]” (focus shifts to operational execution) .
  • Q1 drivers (CFO): Mobility revenue +4.7% with ARPU growth; higher marketing tied to AT&T Guarantee launch pressured margins; vendor settlements aided wireline Opex; Q2 capital investment expected $4.5–$5.0B and ~ $4B FCF .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs and upgrades: Elevated upgrades since tariff headlines may be a pull-forward from H2; CFO expects 2Q upgrade levels “around the same” as Q1; management to manage within guidance .
  • Business Wireline outlook: Q1 aided by legacy pricing actions and vendor settlements (~$45M); expect benefits to diminish and legacy declines to pick up later in 2025 .
  • Fixed wireless opportunity: Network modernization (Nokia→Ericsson) opens new geographies; fixed wireless as “catch product” and business use case seeing improving yields; modest ramp expected .
  • Churn normalization: 2025 resembles 2023 cadence given contract roll-offs; gross adds holding up; focus on high-LTV converged customers .
  • Buybacks and M&A: Buyback plan independent of speculative M&A; management remains open to inorganic opportunities that accelerate connectivity strategy and create shareholder value .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus:
    • Adjusted EPS: $0.51 vs ~$0.515 consensus* (essentially in line) .
    • Revenue: $30.626B vs ~$30.362B consensus* (beat by ~$0.26B) .
  • Implications: With FY25 guide reiterated (Adj. EPS $1.97–$2.07; FCF $16B+) and buybacks commencing in Q2, estimate dispersion should remain contained near current run-rate barring tariff-driven cost surprises .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Convergence is compounding: Fiber + Mobility cross-sell remains a structural driver of ARPU/LTV and share capture in “home game” footprints; continued fiber build and FCC-enabled copper exit support margin expansion over time .
  • Mobility resilient, but activity normalizing: Solid service growth (+4.1% YoY) with slight churn/margin pressure from launch/marketing; watch Q2 upgrade intensity and promotions as tariff uncertainty evolves .
  • Business Wireline remains a drag near term: Ongoing legacy contraction offset partly by fiber/advanced connectivity and cost actions; nonrecurring vendor settlements boosted Q1 — expect trend normalization from Q2 .
  • FCF and leverage on track for capital returns: $3.1B Q1 FCF (ex-DIRECTV), FY guide $16B+, ND/Adj. EBITDA 2.63x — underpins buyback start in Q2 and ongoing dividend capacity .
  • Watchlist: Tariff policy outcomes, competitive intensity (promotions, pricing), upgrade cadence, and Business Wireline price-actions/churn interplay; estimate revisions likely modest given reiterated FY guide .
  • Potential catalysts: Q2 buyback execution, sustained fiber/broadband net adds and ARPU growth, progress on copper decommission cost takeout, and completion of DIRECTV stake sale mid-2025 .

Supporting detail and sources:

  • Q1 2025 press release and financials: .
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcript: –.
  • Prior quarters for trend: Q4 2024 8-K and call – –; Q3 2024 8-K –.
  • Other relevant Q1 2025 releases: AT&T Guarantee (Jan 8) ; Structured sale-leaseback (Jan 24) ; Dividend declaration (Mar 28) .