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    AT&T (T)

    T Q2 2025: Targets 60M Fiber Locations by 2030; Stable EBITDA

    Reported on Jul 23, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$27.42Last close (Jul 22, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$26.30Open (Jul 23, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-1.12(-4.08%)
    • Robust Fiber Expansion & Convergence: Management outlined a clear roadmap to significantly expand their fiber footprint—with plans to reach over 60,000,000 fiber locations by 2030—while emphasizing a converged service strategy that boosts customer lifetime value and enhances margins.
    • Disciplined Pricing & Churn Management: During Q&A, executives highlighted that their pricing strategy is effective and that the observed higher churn is anticipated due to pull-forward demand and financing cycle dynamics, demonstrating strong operational discipline and high-quality customer acquisition.
    • Complementary Fixed Wireless Strategy: The leadership confirmed that fixed wireless serves as a strategic complement to fiber—effectively funneling customers in price-sensitive segments while maintaining a high-quality offering—thereby ensuring broad market coverage and setting the stage for accelerated long-term growth.
    • Rising Mobile Churn: A 17 basis point increase in postpaid phone churn raises concerns about customer retention and puts pressure on margins and lifetime customer value.
    • Seasonal Pull‐Forward Demand: Comments in the Q&A indicate that first‐half results may partly reflect a pull‐forward of demand; if seasonal normalization occurs in the second half amid competitive pressures, it could lead to slower growth and margin compression.
    • Macro and Regulatory Uncertainties: Questions regarding tariff-related uncertainties, potential government spending cuts, and unquantified legacy cost savings suggest broader macro risks that might adversely impact customer growth and overall cost management.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +3.5%

    Overall revenue growth was driven by the strong performance in core segments, particularly Mobility and Consumer Wireline, which helped offset declines in Business Wireline and Corporate & Other. In previous periods, similar offsetting trends were seen, with wireless and broadband strength counterbalancing legacy declines.

    Mobility

    +6.7%

    Mobility revenue improved significantly due to higher postpaid subscriber gains and ARPU increases—trends that were evident in earlier quarters—and a robust mix of service and equipment revenue, building on past performance improvements seen from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025.

    Business Wireline

    -9.3%

    Business Wireline continued its decline as legacy voice and data revenues faced persistent headwinds, a trend previously observed in earlier periods, despite modest growth in advanced connectivity segments.

    Consumer Wireline

    +5.8%

    Consumer Wireline benefited from strategic broadband investments, particularly in fiber, driving a strong increase in revenues and broadband ARPU, with net additions reinforcing the momentum observed in prior periods.

    Corporate & Other

    -16%

    Corporate & Other revenues declined sharply due to increased parent administration support and significant cost items, echoing challenges identified in earlier quarters where rising support costs consistently eroded margins.

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Fiber Expansion & Convergence Strategy

    In Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, AT&T emphasized aggressive fiber network expansion, robust subscriber growth (e.g., targeting 30M+ locations and strong fiber net adds), and the integration of 5G with fiber to drive converged services.

    In Q2 2025, AT&T detailed achieving 30 million fiber locations with a target of 60 million+ by 2030, while reinforcing that converged services—combining fiber and 5G fixed wireless—are critical to reducing churn and improving lifetime value.

    Consistent focus with an intensified expansion agenda and more pronounced convergence messaging, reinforcing long‐term network leadership.

    Mobile Churn & Pricing Management

    Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 reported modest increases in postpaid churn—0.83% and 0.85% respectively—and steady ARPU growth driven by targeted pricing and plan mix adjustments, with churn influenced by contract roll-offs and competitive dynamics.

    In Q2 2025, churn slightly increased to 0.87% with additional emphasis on pricing discipline amid a competitive environment and tariff‐related pressures, while reaffirming that pricing actions remain value‐driven.

    A marginal uptick in churn is observed alongside stable and value‐oriented pricing management, with greater attention now paid to the nuances introduced by tariff dynamics.

    Pull-Forward Demand & Upgrade Activity

    In Q4 2024, AT&T mentioned pent‐up demand due to a work stoppage causing mild upgrade activity, while Q1 2025 pointed to some acceleration in upgrades in anticipation of tariffs.

    In Q2 2025, pull‐forward of demand was highlighted as driven by tariffs and broader market uncertainty, with management noting higher-than-expected early activity and cautious expectations for the second half.

    Tariff concerns have become a key catalyst in accelerating upgrade activity, marking a shift from incidental pent‐up demand to a more tariff-driven dynamic.

    Regulatory, Tariff & Macro Uncertainties

    In Q1 2025, AT&T discussed limited visibility around tariffs—with plans to pass higher handset costs to customers—and acknowledged FCC actions facilitating network modernization; Q4 2024 did not address these issues.

    In Q2 2025, leadership underscored a favorable regulatory environment supporting organic investments, expressed a desire for tariff uncertainty to dissipate, and noted that broader macro tailwinds are in play despite some spending dislocations.

    Regulatory and tariff considerations have gained prominence, with increased focus on maximizing pro-investment policies and managing macro uncertainties—an area not mentioned in Q4 2024.

    Fixed Wireless Complementary Strategy

    Q4 2024 mentioned AT&T Internet Air as a complementary offering alongside fiber, while Q1 2025 detailed fixed wireless growth driven by network modernization and tailored use cases such as “catch” and “holding” products for specific customer segments.

    In Q2 2025, AT&T positioned fixed wireless as a complementary solution that leverages underutilized spectrum (“fallow capacity”) to serve price-sensitive segments and support areas where fiber will eventually roll out, further reinforcing its role in convergence.

    The strategy remains consistent with an ongoing emphasis on fixed wireless complementing fiber, albeit with enhanced operational and market segmentation insights in Q2 2025.

    Capital Returns & Share Repurchases

    Q4 2024 outlined a comprehensive shareholder return plan featuring a $40+ billion target with a contingent $10 billion repurchase tranche, and Q1 2025 announced plans to begin repurchases under a $10 billion authorization with significant volume expected by year-end.

    In Q2 2025, AT&T reported repurchasing approximately $1 billion of stock in the quarter and noted that additional repurchases ($300 million already in Q3) are in progress, reinforcing their commitment to returning capital while maintaining financial flexibility.

    There is a gradual execution of share repurchase plans, transitioning from announced targets to early-stage implementation, reinforcing shareholder returns amid strategic financial management.

    Operational Efficiency & Cost Discipline

    Q4 2024 stressed a drive toward operational efficiency with a new $3 billion-plus run-rate cost savings target and AI integration, while Q1 2025 detailed accelerated cost actions and expense reductions across various business lines.

    In Q2 2025, AT&T continued to underscore strong cost discipline by highlighting cost-saving benefits from legacy copper retirement and improved operating leverage through scaling its fiber network.

    Consistent efforts to improve efficiency are evident, with incremental progress through legacy transformations enhancing cost discipline further in Q2 2025.

    Legacy Infrastructure Decommissioning & Copper Transition

    In Q4 2024, AT&T described initial steps with FCC approval to discontinue legacy copper services in select wire centers, and Q1 2025 expanded on this with details on decommissioning 25% of wire centers and capitalizing on asset sales.

    In Q2 2025, executives focused on the cost savings and operational efficiencies achieved through copper network retirement, noting ongoing progress and continued decommissioning efforts as a key part of their modernization strategy.

    The decommissioning initiative is evolving from regulatory approval and initial steps to tangible cost savings and streamlined execution, highlighting its long-term impact on operational efficiency.

    Subscriber Growth & ARPU Expansion

    Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 reported robust mobility and fiber net additions—with AT&T Fiber net adds and converged services driving solid ARPU growth (with mobility ARPU up modestly and fiber ARPU advancing by 6.2% year-over-year in Q1).

    In Q2 2025, record net adds across mobility, fiber, and Internet Air were noted—with improvements such as a convergence rate of 40.9% and significant broadband subscriber growth—supporting continued ARPU expansion, though mobility revenue growth remained modest.

    Subscriber growth remains strong and is bolstered by enhanced convergence strategies; incremental ARPU expansion reflects a high-value mix of subscribers across mobility and broadband segments, driving a positive long-term revenue outlook.

    1. Fiber & Mobile Returns
      Q: How are fiber and mobile returns performing?
      A: Management emphasized that their fiber builds, even at later stages, remain very profitable with strong convergence benefits driving better lifetime values in mobile. They believe these investments will continue to produce solid returns over time, reinforcing a long‑term, value‐oriented strategy.

    2. EBITDA Guidance / Open Access
      Q: Will growth spending pressure EBITDA?
      A: They acknowledged that while growth‐related spending in mobility may be lumpy, strong operating leverage supports stable EBITDA margins. In addition, open access opportunities in the fiber network could expand further as the ramp‑up continues, bolstering overall performance.

    3. Pricing & Spectrum
      Q: Does pricing impact churn and acquisition potential?
      A: Management explained that modest churn increases are mainly due to natural device financing expirations. They are comfortable with their pricing strategy, and spectrum acquisition plans remain flexible within their disciplined capital structure.

    4. Wireless Churn & Cost Savings
      Q: Will churn remain high and can cost savings offset it?
      A: They expect some seasonal churn due to contract expirations, but point out that cost initiatives—like retiring copper networks—are already yielding savings that will help improve margins over time.

    5. Subscriber Seasonality
      Q: Will subscriber growth be seasonal this year?
      A: Management sees seasonality continuing as expected, with the second half likely bringing higher fiber net adds and increased Internet air subscribers, supporting ongoing penetration gains.

    6. Mobile Margin Stability
      Q: Can mobile margins expand despite churn?
      A: They noted that excluding growth-related spend, mobile margins are healthy and are expected to benefit from a shift toward higher lifetime value, quality customers, suggesting stability with potential modest expansion.

    7. Fiber and Fixed Wireless Synergy
      Q: Are fiber and fixed wireless competitors or complementary?
      A: Management described these as highly complementary, with fiber serving premium, high-usage areas and fixed wireless addressing more price-sensitive market segments, together reinforcing a converged, long-term growth strategy.

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