TC
TE Connectivity plc (TEL)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- TEL delivered Q2 FY25 revenue of $4.14B (+4% y/y; +5% organic) and record adjusted EPS of $2.10, both above guidance; GAAP EPS was $0.04 due to a one-time non-cash tax charge tied to tax law changes .
- Segment performance was mixed: Industrial Solutions grew 17% reported (16% organic) with 260 bps adjusted margin expansion to 17.9%, while Transportation Solutions declined 4% reported (2% organic) but maintained ~21% adjusted margins .
- Orders rose 6% y/y and sequentially to $4.25B (book-to-bill 1.02), supporting Q3 guidance of ~$4.30B revenue and ~$2.06 adjusted EPS; guidance factors in the Richards acquisition, ~2 pts of tariff-recovery pricing, and a ~$0.06 sequential tax headwind .
- AI momentum accelerated: Digital Data Networks grew ~78% y/y; management now expects >$700M FY25 AI revenue (vs >$600M prior), citing 150% order growth and faster ramps across multiple hyperscalers—key near-term stock catalyst alongside tariff mitigation confidence and sustained margin discipline .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Industrial outperformance: Industrial Solutions up 17% reported (16% organic) with adjusted operating margin up 260 bps to 17.9%; strength in AI (DDN +78% organic), Energy (+8% organic), and AD&M (+11% organic) .
- Record profitability: Adjusted EPS $2.10 (+13% y/y) and adjusted operating margin 19.4% (+90 bps y/y), driven by broad operational execution and mix .
- Management confidence on tariffs and localization: “We expect to effectively navigate the current trade environment” and don’t expect tariffs to “have a meaningful impact on our third quarter earnings,” backed by sourcing changes and tariff-recovery pricing .
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What Went Wrong
- Transportation softness: Transportation Solutions revenue down 4% reported (2% organic) with weak Western auto and continued headwinds in Commercial Transportation and Sensors, partly offset by Asia strength .
- Medical destocking: Medical declined 14% y/y due to customer inventory normalization, although sequential trends improved double digits, and management expects ongoing 2H improvement .
- Tax headwinds: GAAP EPS suppressed by a $1.91 one-time non-cash tax charge; Q3 adjusted ETR raised to ~24–25%, creating a ~$0.06 sequential EPS headwind .
Financial Results
- Result vs consensus (Q2): Revenue beat ($4.14B vs $3.97B*), adjusted EPS beat ($2.10 vs $1.96*) .
- GAAP EPS impacted by one-time tax charge; adjusted EPS reflects underlying performance and aligns to guidance framework .
- Orders and FCF: Orders $4.25B (+6% y/y and q/q; book-to-bill 1.02); Q2 FCF $424M; 1H FCF ~$1.10B .
Segment breakdown (sales and margins)
Industrial end-market KPIs (Q2 y/y)
Additional KPIs and balance sheet
- Book-to-bill 1.02; Orders $4.25B .
- Q2 Cash from Ops $653M; Q2 FCF $424M; 1H FCF ~$1.10B .
- Ending cash $2.55B; Total debt $5.61B after April financing and Richards close; DSO 69; DOH 85 .
Guidance Changes
N/P = Not previously provided specifically for Q3 in public materials reviewed.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO Terrence Curtin on execution and guidance: “We are performing well and continue to execute on what we can control… record adjusted EPS… guidance for year-over-year improvement in sales and EPS” .
- On tariffs and localization: “We expect to effectively navigate the current trade environment” due to localized manufacturing and tariff-recovery actions .
- On AI momentum: “We now expect revenue from artificial intelligence applications to be above $700 million in fiscal 2025… ramps from hyperscale platforms across the customer base” .
- CFO Heath Mitts on tax and guidance: “Adjusted effective tax rate… in the 24% to 25% range… will result in a $0.06 sequential headwind to EPS in the third quarter” .
- On tariff economics: “~3% of sales cost impact… ~1/3 mitigated by sourcing… recover the vast majority of the remaining 2/3 through pricing actions (~2 points of price)” .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariffs and pricing power: Tariff exposure is “much more in our Industrial segment” with mitigation via sourcing changes and surcharges; localization and regional manufacturing create competitive advantages versus less-localized peers .
- AI demand and pull-ins: Management did not observe meaningful pull-ins; higher guide reflects firmer orders and faster program ramps; AI customer concentration diversified across hyperscalers .
- Margins sustainability: Industrial expected to drive the next leg of margin expansion; Transportation to hold ~20–21% with leverage when CT cycles recover .
- Automation stabilization: Orders inflected in Europe and Asia; cautious near term given tariff uncertainty; modeling Q3 ACL roughly flat q/q .
- Auto content growth: FY content growth at low end of 4–6% amid European weakness; Asia ramps in data connectivity (Ethernet/zonal architectures) support outperformance .
Estimates Context
- Q2 FY25 beat: Revenue $4.14B vs $3.97B consensus; adjusted EPS $2.10 vs $1.96 consensus (both beats) .
- Q1 FY25: EPS beat ($1.95 vs $1.89*) but revenue slightly below ($3.84B vs $3.91B*) .
- FY25 cadence: Q3 guide implies continued y/y growth with tariff-recovery pricing and Richards contribution .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Industrial-led upside: AI server interconnect, Energy grid hardening, and AD&M are driving growth and mix-led margin gains; DDN momentum is robust and accelerating into 2H .
- Transportation resilient despite macro: Asia is offsetting Western weakness; TEL maintains ~21% adjusted margins and expects low-end content growth (4–6%) via data connectivity ramps .
- Tariff risk managed: Localization and pricing (~2 pts in Q3) largely offset a ~3% of sales cost impact, limiting EPS risk near term .
- Cash generation supports capital deployment: 1H FCF ~$1.1B with a 9% dividend increase, opportunistic buybacks, and Richards closing adding utility exposure .
- Near-term catalysts: Q3 delivery vs guide (sales $4.3B, adj EPS ~$2.06), AI order flow and ramps, stabilization in ACL/Medical, and visibility on CT recovery timeline .
- Watch the tax line: Higher adjusted ETR (24–25%) creates a ~$0.06 sequential EPS headwind in Q3; underlying operations still expanding margins .
Other Q2-period corporate items: Completed $2.3B Richards Manufacturing acquisition; announced 9% dividend increase; incremental debt issuance executed in April to support liquidity and M&A .
Notes:
- All financials and commentary are as reported by TEL in the Q2 FY25 8-K/press release and earnings call. Adjusted metrics are non-GAAP as defined by the company .
- Consensus estimates marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.