Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Teradyne is experiencing dramatic growth in the compute segment, with increased demand coming in bigger and faster than expected, which could lead to strengthened results in the second half of the year if the trend continues.
- The company expects significant growth in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, with HBM TAM increasing from $100 million last year to over $500 million this year, and 45% of their Q1 memory revenue tied to HBM. ,
- Teradyne's robotics business is poised for sequential growth throughout the year, driven by new products like the MiR1200 pallet jack, partnerships such as collaboration with NVIDIA, and a 58% year-on-year increase in their OEM business. ,
- Teradyne's large accounts remain sensitive to end market conditions, and potential budget constraints could lead to reduced automation purchases.
- Weak end market conditions require Teradyne to focus on finding new opportunities, implying current markets are not driving sufficient growth.
- Despite having 95% of the market unserved, Teradyne may face challenges in penetrating new industry verticals and applications.
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HBM Memory and Market Share
Q: What's Teradyne's outlook for HBM memory and market share?
A: Teradyne expects the HBM market TAM to increase from $100 million last year to over $500 million this year. Although their HBM market share may decline slightly, they anticipate significant revenue growth due to increased demand and opportunities to penetrate new customers and test steps. They remain optimistic about gaining share with their differentiated solutions in HBM testing. -
Compute TAM and AI Accelerators
Q: How is the growth in AI accelerators affecting Teradyne's compute TAM?
A: The compute TAM is projected at $1.5 billion for 2024, up 7% from the revised $1.4 billion in 2023. The surge in AI accelerators is driving demand, with most testers supporting this year's revenue purchased last year. Teradyne believes that additional capacity will be needed as utilization rates rise and new vertically integrated producers ramp up. -
Mobile Market Outlook
Q: What is the outlook for recovery in the mobile market?
A: Teradyne has dialed in the bottom for mobile demand, expecting more upside than downside. Utilization rates are tightening, and any capacity shortfalls could immediately translate into business as the mobile market recovers. However, they do not expect their historically largest customer to be a 10% customer this year. -
Robotics Growth and Profitability
Q: How is Teradyne's robotics business performing, and what's the profitability outlook?
A: The robotics business is expected to grow sequentially, with 42% of revenue in the first half and 58% in the second half of the year. Teradyne anticipates being profitable in robotics this year, aiming for single-digit profitability. New product launches and expansion into OEM and large accounts are driving growth, despite a weak macro environment. -
Edge AI in Smartphones
Q: When will Edge AI meaningfully impact Teradyne's business?
A: Significant AI processors are just starting to hit the premium smartphone market. Teradyne expects broader adoption to begin towards the end of 2025, becoming mainstream in 2026, which could drive higher test intensity and demand for their products. -
Seasonality and Revenue Trajectory
Q: Why is Teradyne's revenue trajectory deviating from normal seasonality?
A: The typical seasonality driven by mobile is muted due to the mobile market downturn. Teradyne expects growth in Q4, with seasonality expected to return once the mobile market strengthens. -
Memory Revenue from HBM
Q: How much of Q1 memory revenue was from HBM?
A: Approximately 45% of Teradyne's Q1 memory revenue was tied to HBM. -
Impact of Chiplets Beyond AI Accelerators
Q: Is the use of chiplets expanding beyond AI accelerators?
A: Currently, chiplet technology is primarily used in cloud AI and high-performance computing due to advanced packaging capacity constraints. Migration into other markets like mobile is possible but expected to be a slow process. -
NVIDIA AI Partnership in Robotics
Q: How will the NVIDIA AI partnership impact robotics implementation?
A: AI simplifies the development of robust robotic solutions by handling variation and simplifying programming. The partnership enables faster solution development, potentially driving growth in robotics through the OEM channel. -
Large Account Strategy in Robotics
Q: Is the large account strategy making Teradyne's robotics business less cyclical?
A: While large accounts can still be sensitive to economic cycles, Teradyne focuses on adding new opportunities to drive growth even in weak markets. The largest ever MiR order came from an automotive customer, reflecting the effectiveness of strategic account management.
Research analysts covering TERADYNE.