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TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP (TFC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered solid fundamentals: net income available to common shareholders of $1.16B and diluted EPS of $0.87; adjusted EPS also $0.87, with NIM at 3.01% and efficiency ratio improved 130 bps QoQ to 59.3% (adjusted 56.4%) .
- Versus estimates: S&P Global consensus Primary EPS of $0.864 was modestly beaten by an actual of $0.89*; revenue missed on the S&P basis ($4.94B consensus vs $4.44B actual*) while company TE revenue was $4.95B .
- Management lowered 2025 revenue outlook to +1.5–2.5% (from +3.0–3.5% prior) and adjusted expense outlook to ~+1% (from ~+1.5%); Q2 2025 plans include up to $750M of share repurchases, signaling capital return confidence despite weaker IB/trading activity and a flatter curve .
- Potential stock catalysts: aggressive buybacks (up to $750M in Q2), continued deposit cost repricing (-10 bps QoQ to 1.79%), and operating leverage improvement; offsets include reduced IB/trading outlook and lower medium-term rate-driven NII uplift .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Expense discipline: adjusted noninterest expense fell 5.4% QoQ on lower other expense, professional fees/outside processing, and equipment expense; efficiency ratio improved QoQ (adjusted 56.4%) .
- Loan and deposit growth: average loans +1.1% QoQ and average deposits +0.6% QoQ; deposit cost down 10 bps QoQ to 1.79% amid repricing .
- Strategic tech progress: “Truist Client Pulse” AI tool to identify friction points; Truist Assist handled >1M conversations with >80% fully self-service; progress in real-time payments (Zelle disbursements) . CEO: “We continue to invest in talent and technology…well positioned to succeed… and continue capitalizing on opportunities” .
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What Went Wrong
- Noninterest income declined 5.3% QoQ (down $78M) driven by lower other income; YoY noninterest income down 3.7% on weaker IB/trading and wealth management (post Sterling sale) .
- NIM down 6 bps QoQ to 3.01% (two fewer days, lower medium-term rates); management reduced NII repricing benefit by 40–50 bps due to curve dynamics .
- Reduced revenue outlook: IB/trading now expected flat YoY (vs prior low double-digit growth), pressuring adjusted revenue growth and necessitating buybacks to offset lower topline .
Financial Results
Segment performance (selected):
Key KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Other actions: common dividend of $0.52 declared for Q2 2025 payable June 2, 2025 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Bill Rogers (CEO): “We’re reducing our revenue outlook…given slower investment banking and capital markets activity and the yield curve shift,” while maintaining focus on growth initiatives and “positive operating leverage” .
- On capital return: “We saw an opportunity with the price of our shares…to invest in Truist…and doing all that, we still maintain that relative capital position” (on tapping up to $750M Q2 buybacks) .
- Michael Maguire (CFO): NII expected +~3% in 2025; repricing ~$42B fixed-rate assets with pickup 40–50 bps lower than initial view due to lower medium-term rates .
- Deposit strategy: “More surgical in our deposit pricing” using new tools; DDA remix to 27% not troubling .
- Technology: “A new patented AI tool, Truist Client Pulse, will give teammates insights into friction points” to enhance client experience .
Q&A Highlights
- Capital deployment: Buyback pace confident and opportunistic; baseline rhythm at $500M/quarter, with CET1 operating area ~10% medium-term, pending Basel finalization .
- Deposit costs & mix: Continued repricing across CDs; tools to price deposits surgically; expect more benefit with cuts in second half .
- Loan growth: Commitments up, utilization slightly up; C&I pipelines healthy; consumer pipelines “best they’ve ever been” .
- IB/trading pipeline: Deferred rather than lost; client-focused trading lowers volatility beta; expect flat IB/trading for year .
- NII guidance reconciliation: Impact from curve reduces 2025 NII vs January implied; primarily curve-driven .
- Reserves: Baseline unemployment in the model ~5.1%, with overlays bringing mid- to high-single-digit loss rates; management comfortable with reserve levels .
- Cost saves & restructuring: Corporate facilities rationalization and severance; expect only ~$40–50M additional restructuring in 2025 .
Estimates Context
Notes: Values retrieved from S&P Global.* Company-reported diluted EPS was $0.87 and TE revenue was $4.95B in Q1 2025, which differ from S&P “Primary EPS” and “Revenue” bases . Implication: Q1 EPS was a modest beat versus consensus on S&P’s Primary EPS; Revenue missed on S&P basis while company TE revenue was strong.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Buybacks as support: Capital return accelerates (up to $750M in Q2) even as topline outlook softens—near-term EPS support and signaling of capital strength .
- Operating leverage: Cost control and deposit repricing drove a QoQ efficiency improvement; continue to monitor adjusted expense trajectory (+~1% 2025) .
- Rate sensitivity reset: Lower medium-term rates temper repricing benefit (40–50 bps reduction), reducing 2025 NII vs prior expectations—watch curve evolution .
- Fee headwinds vs DCM strength: IB/trading outlook flat YoY; debt capital markets strong but M&A/ECM deferred—fee recovery timing is a swing factor .
- Credit stable: NPLs and NCOs within a narrow band; CRE and office exposures manageable; NCO guide ~60 bps maintained .
- Digital/AI momentum: Client Pulse and Truist Assist adoption plus payments enhancements (Zelle disbursements) bolster efficiency and client satisfaction .
- Dividend continuity: $0.52/share quarterly dividend affirmed; supports total shareholder return alongside buybacks .
Additional source: Q1 2025 8-K and exhibits include full Quarterly Performance Summary and presentation with non-GAAP reconciliations and capital details **[92230_0000092230-25-000031_ex992-qpsx1q25.htm:0]** **[92230_0000092230-25-000031_ex992-qpsx1q25.htm:1]** **[92230_0000092230-25-000031_ex993-earningsdeck1q25.htm:4]** **[92230_0000092230-25-000031_ex993-earningsdeck1q25.htm:5]**.