TRIMBLE INC. (TRMB) Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2025 results are not yet published; management guided revenue of $927–$967M and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.91–$0.99 for Q4, with GAAP EPS of $0.59–$0.67 .
• Q3 2025 delivered upside vs. expectations and raised FY25 guidance: revenue $901.2M, adjusted EPS $0.81, adjusted EBITDA margin 29.9%; ARR reached a record $2.31B . Third‑party summaries noted a positive stock reaction on the print .
• FY25 guidance was raised: revenue $3,545–$3,585M; non‑GAAP EPS $3.04–$3.12; GAAP EPS $1.69–$1.77 (non‑GAAP tax rate 17.4%) .
• Momentum drivers into Q4: AECO ARR growth (17%), improving margins, and recurring mix (63% of revenue) .
• Watch‑list for Q4: limited federal shutdown effect (“single‑digit millions”), field systems subscription conversions (~150 bps headwind), and a still‑soft freight market in T&L (execution offsetting macro) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record ARR and margin expansion: ARR hit $2.31B; non‑GAAP gross margin reached 71.2%; adjusted EBITDA margin 29.9% .
• AECO and Field Systems outperformance: AECO revenue +17% YoY to $358.5M with 31.8% OI%; Field Systems revenue +8% YoY to $408.7M with 33.4% OI% .
• Strategic narrative and execution: “The story of Trimble this year can be summarized in three: clarity, durability, and momentum,” and recurring/software mix remains high (63% recurring; 78% software/services), reinforcing model quality .

What Went Wrong

• Transportation comparables and mix: T&L revenue down vs. prior year Q3 (195.2M → 134.0M) given portfolio changes; operating margin improved but freight macro remains “stubborn,” limiting end‑market inflection .
• Government/federal demand: Management flagged a U.S. federal shutdown headwind contained to single‑digit millions in 2H25 and noted the Q4 field systems guide laps large prior‑year government orders .
• Subscription conversions create near‑term growth headwinds: Field Systems growth faced ~150 bps headwind in Q3; management expects conversion impacts to continue through 2027 .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Margins (YoY and sequential)

Segment Revenue and Operating Margin

KPIs and Mix

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Our third quarter results delivered a top and bottom line beat and we are once again raising guidance for the year. The story of Trimble this year can be summarized in three: clarity, durability, and momentum.” — Rob Painter, CEO .
• “Organic revenue growth at 11% exceeded the high end of our outlook… Gross margins expanded to 71.2%… EBITDA margins of 29.9%... Reported EPS was $0.81, $0.10 above midpoint.” — Phil Sawarynski, CFO .
• On AI and data moat: “Trillions of dollars of construction… tens of billions of freight… millions of users… hundreds of thousands of instruments and machines... a unique corpus of data at Trimble.” — Rob Painter .
• On 2027 targets and 2026 bridge: “3, 4, 30 framework… $3B ARR, $4B revenue, 30% EBITDA… early look at 2026 revenue mid‑ to high‑single‑digit range.” — Phil Sawarynski .

Q&A Highlights

• Government shutdown: impact contained to “single‑digit millions” in 2H25; better outlook if full budget resolution vs. continuing resolution .
• Field Systems growth dynamics: Q4 comps include large prior‑year government orders; subscription conversions add ~150 bps headwind in Q3 and persist through 2027 .
• Margin framework: multi‑year 30–40% operating leverage remains the guide despite 1,200 bps gross margin expansion over five years; investing behind AI and GTM limits near‑term upside beyond plan .
• T&L outlook: macro stable but not yet improving; execution (mapping into Transporeon, Freight Marketplace) is driving bookings and margins .
• Capital allocation: leverage at ~1.2x with flexibility; at least one‑third of FCF to buybacks; focused tuck‑in M&A in construction software .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus from S&P Global could not be retrieved at this time due to API limits. Values unavailable; we will update when accessible.
• Third‑party summaries indicated Q3 beats vs. consensus (adj. EPS $0.81 vs. ~$0.72; revenue $901M vs. ~$871M) and a positive stock reaction, but these are not S&P Global figures .
• With Q4 guided above prior run‑rate at the midpoint and FY25 raised, we expect modest upward bias to Q4/EPS and FY EPS tracks, pending actuals and updated consensus .
• Note: S&P Global consensus values will be inserted once available. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Set‑up into Q4: Results are pending, but the Q4 guide (rev $927–$967M; non‑GAAP EPS $0.91–$0.99) and raised FY25 targets suggest continued momentum and potential estimate revisions once reported .
• Quality mix and scalability: Recurring revenue (63%) and software/services (78%) support margin durability; non‑GAAP GM >70% and EBITDA ~30% illustrate structural improvement .
• Execution over macro: T&L macro remains tepid, but cross‑sell and Freight Marketplace are offsetting; Field Systems conversions temper near‑term growth but enhance durability .
• AECO flywheel: Bundles, ERP/PM anchor points (TC1), and cross‑sell continue to drive mid‑teens ARR growth and >30% margins, positioning AECO above the “rule of 40” .
• Capital returns with optionality: Low leverage (~1.2x) and ongoing buybacks provide downside support; tuck‑ins in construction software can augment ARR growth .
• Watch federal dynamics and comps: Limited shutdown headwind, but Q4 laps large prior‑year government orders in Field Systems; monitor mix and conversion progress .
• 2027 “3/4/30” credible bridge: Early 2026 view at mid‑ to high‑single‑digit growth plus continued mix shift keeps the path to $3B ARR, $4B revenue, and 30% EBITDA intact .

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Notes on source materials and availability:

• Q4 2025 8‑K (Item 2.02) and earnings call transcript are not yet available on Trimble’s IR site as of this writing. We relied on Q3 2025 press release/8‑K and Q3 earnings call for Q4 guidance and context –.
• Prior quarter materials reviewed: Q2 2025 press release and 8‑K, and Q2 2025 earnings call transcript – – –.