Executive Summary

Q1 2025 revenue was $738M, up 9% sequentially but down 5% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA was $112M with a 15.2% margin, pressured by higher production costs (Botlek idling) and lower zircon pricing/volumes .
Results missed Wall Street consensus: EPS (-$0.15 vs $0.02*), revenue ($738M vs $746M*), and EBITDA ($96M vs $114M*) — driven by cost headwinds, freight and FX; adjusted EPS was -$0.15 .
Guidance maintained for FY25 revenue ($3.0–$3.4B) and adjusted EBITDA ($525–$625M); capex cut to < $365M and free cash flow raised to “≥ $50M,” aided by inventory drawdown from Botlek idling and cost programs .
Strategic actions: idling of the Netherlands Botlek plant (no restart planned), $125–$175M run-rate cost improvements by end-2026, and mining project commissions (Fairbreeze in July; East OFS in November) to improve costs into 2026 .
Stock reaction catalysts: maintained outlook despite macro/tariff volatility, visible anti-dumping tailwinds in Europe (Q2 pricing lift) and potential duties in India and Brazil, and capex reduction supporting cash generation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Stronger-than-normal seasonal TiO2 demand uplift: volumes +12% sequentially, led by Europe post anti-dumping duties; North America solid seasonal trends .
Cost control in SG&A: SG&A down 6% YoY; management reiterating $125–$175M run-rate cost improvements by end-2026 .
Strategic execution to improve FCF: Botlek idling expected to improve 2025 free cash flow via inventory drawdown and >$30M annual cost savings from 2026; capex reduced to < $365M .

Management quote: “We delivered an Adjusted EBITDA of $112 million and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.2%… Our focus on cost reduction drove SG&A lower in the quarter.” — CEO John D. Romano .
Management quote: “We expect to deliver sustainable, run-rate cost improvements of $125-175 million by the end of 2026.” — CEO John D. Romano .

What Went Wrong

Earnings miss vs consensus: EPS (-$0.15 vs $0.02*), revenue ($738M vs $746M*), EBITDA ($96M vs $114M*) as higher production costs (lower operating rates at Botlek), freight and FX weighed on margins .
Zircon weakness: revenue -22% YoY and -8% QoQ, driven by lower volumes (-15% YoY, -6% QoQ) and pricing/mix (-7% YoY, -2% QoQ), with China demand soft .
Free cash flow use of $142M in Q1 (capex $110M; working capital build), liquidity down to $443M; net leverage up to 5.2x TTM .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L and Margins (USD)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)	$804	$676	$738
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	-$0.16	-$0.19	-$0.70
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	-$0.13	$0.03	-$0.15
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$143	$129	$112
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	17.8%	19.1%	15.2%
Free Cash Flow ($M)	-$14	-$35	-$142

Segment Revenue (USD)

Segment	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
TiO2 ($M)	$616	$533	$584
Zircon ($M)	$74	$75	$69
Other Products ($M)	$114	$68	$85

Operating and Balance Sheet KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
SG&A ($M)	$74	$69	$74
Net Interest Expense ($M)	$39	$40	$40
Capex ($M)	$101	$117	$110
Liquidity ($M)	$668	$578	$443
Net Debt ($B)	$2.651	$2.708	$2.836
Net Leverage (TTM Adj EBITDA, x)	5.0x	4.8x	5.2x

Q1 2025 Actual vs Consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Q1 2025 Actual	Q1 2025 Consensus	Surprise
Primary EPS ($)	-$0.15	$0.02*	Miss
Revenue ($M)	$738	$746*	Miss
EBITDA ($M)	$96*	$114*	Miss

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global; actuals reflect company reporting. S&P Global data: EPS estimate 0.015, revenue estimate $746.0M, EBITDA estimate $114.2M; actuals: EPS -$0.15, revenue $738.0M, EBITDA $96.0M.*

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q4 2024)	Current Guidance (Q1 2025)	Change
Revenue ($B)	FY 2025	$3.0–$3.4	$3.0–$3.4	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY 2025	$525–$625	$525–$625	Maintained
Free Cash Flow ($M)	FY 2025	~Flat at midpoint	≥ $50	Raised
Capital Expenditures ($M)	FY 2025	$375–$395	< $365	Lowered
Cost Improvement Program ($M run-rate)	By end 2026	$125–$175	$125–$175	Maintained
Botlek Idling Cost Savings	From 2026	N/A	>$30 annually; inventory drawdown aids 2025 FCF	New Detail
Dividend per share ($)	Q2 2025	N/A	$0.125 declared (payable Jul 2, 2025)	Announced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Anti-dumping tariffs (EU/India/Brazil)	Q3: investigations ongoing; demand recovery slower late quarter . Q4: 2025 outlook assumes recovery aided by trade defenses .	EU duties finalized in Jan drove Europe volume recovery; expecting India decision ~third week of May and Brazil end-June; regained share; Q2 European price increase partially implemented .	Improving tailwinds; share recapture accelerating.
TiO2 demand and pricing	Q3: TiO2 volumes -7% QoQ; pricing/mix modest . Q4: utilization ~80% target; cost improvements .	TiO2 volumes +12% QoQ; pricing down 2% QoQ; Q2 pricing in Europe flat-to-slightly up overall .	Sequential volume strength; cautious pricing recovery.
Zircon market	Q3: volumes -12% QoQ; China weak . Q4: guidance for flat/slightly down .	Q1: -22% YoY, -8% QoQ; China weak; expecting measured growth (~5% YoY) .	Soft; gradual normalization expected.
Cost improvement and SG&A	Q3: operating rate ~80%; lower-cost inventory benefit lagged . Q4: launched $125–$175M program .	SG&A down 6%; program progressing at sites with prescriptive plans; majority of savings in 2026 .	Execution underway; larger benefits in 2026.
Botlek (Netherlands) footprint optimization	N/A in Q3; Q4 set stage for asset optimization .	Idling of 90kt plant; no restart planned; inventory drawdown to support Europe; >$30M annual savings from 2026; restructuring charges $130–$160M over ~18 months .	Structural footprint change; near-term cost/FCF benefits.
Mining projects (Fairbreeze, East OFS)	Q3: capex towards SA extensions; sustaining integration . Q4: ongoing; utilization 80% .	Commissioning timing: Fairbreeze July; East OFS November; 2025 mining cost headwind $50–$60M, mostly H1; benefits roll into late-2025/2026 .	Near-term headwind; medium-term cost tailwind.
Tariffs/macro exposure	Q3: macro weaker than forecast late Q3 . Q4: maintained cautious outlook .	Tariff impact on EBITDA < $5M in 2025; TiO2/feedstock exempt; diversified footprint mitigates .	Manageable; limited direct impact.
Rare earths	Not highlighted in Q3/Q4 releases.	Pursuing pre-feasibility in Australia to extract more value; remains strategic .	Optionality; medium-term upside.

Management Commentary

“Europe led this growth bolstered by the finalization of anti-dumping duties in January, with sales volumes recovering to levels not seen since Q2 2021… Our production costs in the first quarter were higher than expected, primarily due to lower operating rates at Botlek and increases in direct material prices.” — CEO John D. Romano .
“The idling of our Botlek pigment plant… is expected to result in improved free cash flow in 2025 due to the draw down of pigment inventories and more than $30 million of cost improvements from 2026 onwards.” — CEO John D. Romano .
“We expect to deliver $125-175 million in sustainable run-rate cost improvements by the end of 2026… Our capital expenditures are primarily focused on… South Africa mining projects… We expect to realize a $50-60 million improvement in our mining cost profile from 2025 to 2026.” — CEO John D. Romano .
“We ended the quarter with total debt of $3.0 billion and net debt of $2.8 billion… Liquidity… was $443 million… net leverage ratio was 5.2x.” — CFO John Srivisal .
“In light of the new U.S. tariff environment… We anticipate the EBITDA impact to be less than $5 million in 2025.” — CEO John D. Romano .

Q&A Highlights

TiO2 volume outlook: Growth driven by duties in Europe; potential India decision ~3rd week of May and Brazil end-June; regained share where China pulled back .
Utilization rates: Expect at or above 80% ex-Botlek; inventory repositioned to service Europe from other plants .
Zircon trajectory: More measured pattern; modest ~5% YoY growth; China remains the key recovery opportunity .
Botlek idling: No restart contemplated; inventory drawdown to generate cash; lower cost per ton at other plants as volumes shift .
Cost bridge: H2 improvement driven by pigment cost improvement (less idle/LCM), Botlek shutdown benefits, cost program ramp; majority of mining headwind ($50–$60M) hits H1 .
Pricing: Q2 Europe price increase partially implemented; expect flat to slightly up overall pricing in Q2 despite competitive pressures elsewhere .
Capex normalization: Longer-term normalized capex $250–$300M once mining projects complete; Campaspe extension continues into 2026 .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: EPS -$0.15 vs $0.02*, revenue $738M vs $746M*, EBITDA $96M vs $114M* — broad miss across key metrics, reflecting higher production costs, freight and FX headwinds; adjusted EBITDA reported at $112M vs consensus on EBITDA .
Estimate breadth: 8 EPS estimates, 7 revenue estimates for the quarter*, suggesting reasonably covered but not heavily followed; expect downward revisions to near-term EBITDA/EBIT margins, and potential upgrades to H2 assumptions if pricing/duties traction in EU/India/Brazil materializes.*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term pressure but medium-term relief: Q1 miss tied to Botlek-related costs and zircon softness; H2 setup improves as pigment costs normalize, mining headwinds fade, and anti-dumping tailwinds broaden (EU, India, Brazil) .
Cash generation levers engaged: Capex reduced (<$365M), inventory drawdown from Botlek, and cost program underpin ≥$50M FCF guide; watch working capital and capex execution in H2 .
Pricing inflection in Europe: Early Q2 pricing gains in EU indicate supply shift effects; broader pricing recovery remains cautious given competition in LATAM/APAC/MEA .
Balance sheet: Liquidity at $443M and no significant maturities until 2029 provide runway; leverage elevated (5.2x TTM) — deleveraging depends on H2 EBITDA and FCF delivery .
Structural footprint optimization: Botlek idling reduces future cost base (> $30M savings from 2026), improves fixed-cost absorption at remaining plants; no additional closures planned .
Watch catalysts: India/Brazil duty decisions (May/June), Fairbreeze/ East OFS commissioning timelines, Q2 EU pricing realization, and zircon demand in China .
Dividend maintained ($0.125) signaling confidence in cash outlook; provides income support while strategic programs ramp .

Tronox Holdings plc (TROX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary