Q4 2024 Summary
Published Feb 7, 2025, 7:58 PM UTC- Tesla is confident in releasing unsupervised full self-driving in Austin and several other U.S. cities by the end of this year, with plans to expand nationwide next year. This advancement could significantly enhance Tesla's value through new revenue streams from autonomous driving capabilities.
- Elon Musk believes that the transition to sustainable, autonomous electric transport is inevitable, which supports continued growth for Tesla as a market leader in electric vehicles and autonomy technology.
- Demand for Tesla vehicles remains strong, with the main constraint being battery production capacity, not demand. Tesla is focusing on increasing battery production, suggesting significant future growth once this bottleneck is addressed.
- Regulatory challenges in Europe and China may delay the rollout of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, limiting growth in key markets. Elon Musk acknowledged that releasing FSD in Europe requires navigating "a layer cake of regulations of bureaucracy," and in China, they face difficulties due to data transfer restrictions, stating, "we're in a bit of a quandary."
- Battery production constraints and factory retooling for the new Model Y may lead to short-term production delays and impact Tesla's ability to meet demand. Elon Musk mentioned that "the constraint we're trying to solve is battery production" and that "we've got this massive factory retooling for the new Model Y... That obviously has a short-term impact on output."
- Potential underestimation of regulatory risks related to electric vehicle adoption in the U.S. When asked about policy changes that could slow EV uptake, Elon Musk dismissed concerns, stating that "sustainable transport is inevitable" and "you can't stop the advent of electric cars," which may suggest underestimating possible impacts of policy reversals.
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Expenses | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Expected to increase in FY 2025 to support growth initiatives | no prior guidance |
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Expected to remain flat YOY in FY 2025, after ~$5B in AI CapEx so far | no prior guidance |
Energy Storage Deployments | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Expected to grow by at least 50% year-over-year in FY 2025 | no prior guidance |
New Product Launches | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Plans to introduce several new products in FY 2025, including a more affordable model in the first half of the year | no prior guidance |
Full Self-Driving (FSD) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Aims to release unsupervised FSD in the U.S. in FY 2025 | no prior guidance |
Production of New Model Y | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | All factories will begin producing the new Model Y in February 2025, with some downtime during transition | no prior guidance |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Full Self-Driving (FSD) and autonomy | Frequently mentioned in Q3, Q2, Q1 calls, highlighting timelines (e.g., surpass human-level safety by 2025), FSD take rates, hardware upgrades, and global expansion. | **Discussed as a key driver of Tesla’s future value, with significant interest in licensing, but facing regulatory hurdles in Europe and China. ** | Consistent topic with ongoing progress each quarter. Sentiment remains bullish, focusing on safety, global regulatory challenges, and long-term licensing revenue. |
Battery production and constraints | Repeated discussions about 4680 cells, supplier vs. in-house production, and balancing resources between energy and automotive. Frequent in Q3, Q2, Q1 calls. | **Emphasized as the primary production bottleneck rather than demand; ramp efforts include the Megafactory in Shanghai. ** | Recurring focus on scaling cell production. Sentiment remains optimistic but acknowledges constraints as Tesla’s critical growth limit. |
Demand for Tesla vehicles | Consistent reports of robust demand in Q3, Q2, Q1, with efforts to offset interest rates and increase affordability. | **Stated as very strong; “we can’t build enough,” with record deliveries and mention that battery supply is the true limiter. ** | Steadily high demand across periods. Sentiment remains positive. Emphasis has shifted toward addressing production/battery constraints rather than finding buyers. |
Tesla’s energy business | Prior quarters underscored rapid growth (Megapack/Powerwall), increased margins, global expansion, and consistent backlog. | **Achieved record stationary storage deployments; supply constrained; Shanghai Megafactory began operations in Q1 2025. ** | Ongoing expansion of Megapack and Powerwall. Sentiment very optimistic, expecting continued strong growth. |
Ride-hailing services | Previously discussed as launching in 2025 for Texas and California (Q3), extending Tesla’s model beyond manufacturing (Q2, Q1). | **Plans to begin autonomous ride-hailing in June 2025 in Austin, then expand to other cities; eventually allow owners to add their cars. ** | Recurring theme with a more concrete start date in Q4. Sentiment is bullish on revenue potential from a Tesla-run ride-hailing network. |
Optimus humanoid robot | Highlighted in Q3, Q2, Q1 as potentially becoming Tesla’s most valuable product, with improving prototypes and significant revenue prospects. | **Thousands planned for internal factory use by end of 2025; ramp targeting up to 100,000 units per month in the future. ** | Continues to gain emphasis each quarter. Sentiment remains highly bullish, viewed as a massive future revenue and value driver. |
Automotive margins and cost reductions | Prior quarters noted cost improvements, margin fluctuations due to pricing, and continued efforts to reduce production costs. | **Margins dipped due to lower ASPs; cost per car is now under $35,000; ongoing efficiency measures. ** | Consistent focus each quarter. Sentiment remains cautious but is buoyed by success in lowering per-vehicle costs. |
Delayed product launches | In Q3, Roadster was not a priority yet; Cybercab expected around 2026. Earlier calls mentioned a more affordable model arriving in 2025. | **No specific mention of Roadster or Cybercab delays; affordable model remains on track for early 2025. ** | Roadster remains low priority; affordable models stay on track. Sentiment is neutral, focusing on higher-volume products first. |
Negative free cash flow and headcount reduction | Only cited in Q1 2024, where Tesla reported negative free cash flow of $2.5B and a 10% headcount reduction for cost savings. | No mention in Q4. | No longer discussed after Q1. Sentiment indicates the issue was transient; cost structure stabilized in subsequent quarters. |
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Unsupervised FSD Deployment
Q: When will Tesla deploy unsupervised FSD and robotaxis?
A: Elon Musk is very confident that Tesla will release unsupervised full self-driving in Austin and several other U.S. cities by the end of this year. Autonomous ride-hailing for money in Austin is planned for June. -
Battery Production Constraints
Q: How is battery production affecting Tesla's output?
A: Musk stated that the main constraint Tesla is trying to solve is battery production rather than demand. Increasing total gigawatt hours of battery production this year is crucial. -
Regulatory Hurdles for FSD
Q: What challenges are there in deploying FSD internationally?
A: In Europe, Tesla faces bureaucratic delays, with approval for supervised FSD expected around May next year. In China, restrictions on data transfer require Tesla to use simulations and publicly available videos to train FSD. -
Safety Improvements in Autopilot
Q: How has Autopilot improved safety?
A: Tesla reported 1 crash for every 5.9 million miles driven with Autopilot engaged, compared to 1 crash every 700,000 miles without it, making it 8.5 times safer. -
Automated Driving Policy Impact
Q: Will policy changes affect EV adoption?
A: Musk believes sustainable transport is inevitable and cannot be stopped by policy changes. He is highly confident that all transport will become autonomous and electric. -
Vision-Based Approach Over LiDAR
Q: Does Tesla plan to use LiDAR in vehicles?
A: Musk reiterated that LiDAR is simply the wrong solution for driving cars. Tesla relies on cameras and neural networks, similar to how humans drive. -
U.S. Manufacturing Capabilities
Q: Is the U.S. ready for AI advancements in manufacturing?
A: Musk emphasized the need to make manufacturing cool again in America, suggesting talent should shift from law and finance into manufacturing. -
Customer Use of Unsupervised FSD
Q: When can Tesla owners use unsupervised FSD?
A: Customers may be able to use unsupervised FSD in their own vehicles next year, after Tesla ensures the system works flawlessly and any issues are resolved. -
Drivers Taking Eyes Off the Road
Q: Will Tesla allow drivers to check emails while driving?
A: Musk acknowledged the need for confidence in safety before allowing drivers to take their eyes off the road. He expects this capability to be available in low single-digit months. -
Selling Cars at Lower Margins
Q: Will Tesla reduce margins to increase vehicle sales?
A: Musk indicated that the constraint is battery production, not demand, and did not discuss lowering margins to boost sales.