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    TSS (TSSI)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 21, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$11.98Last close (Nov 14, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$7.80Open (Nov 15, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-4.18(-34.89%)
    • TSS Inc. is experiencing tremendous growth and expects it to continue due to a new multiyear agreement, demonstrating strong future prospects.
    • The company has the capacity to grow operations by up to 10x, indicating significant scalability to meet increasing demand.
    • TSS Inc. is strategically positioned to capitalize on the expanding AI infrastructure market, particularly with opportunities in modular data centers (MDCs), which they expect to produce revenue in 2025 and beyond.
    • TSS identified power availability as the biggest potential bottleneck to their future growth, with executives emphasizing that "power" is the key limiting factor. They acknowledged that "everybody is chasing power", and despite planning for additional capacity, there is uncertainty in securing sufficient power, which could limit their ability to scale as planned.
    • The company appears to be heavily reliant on a key customer, as discussions focused on current relationships and expanding capacity to meet this customer's needs. When asked about potential new customers or acquisitions, executives emphasized their commitment to existing partnerships, suggesting that dependency on a single major customer could pose risks if the relationship changes.
    • TSS plans to invest $25 million to $30 million in a new facility to expand capacity, relying on bank financing for leasehold improvements. This significant capital expenditure introduces financial risk, especially if anticipated growth is constrained by external factors like power limitations or component shortages.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +686%

    Explosive revenue growth from $8.88 million to $70.07 million was driven by a dramatic expansion in high-value services, including procurement and systems integration, reflecting both a shift in the revenue mix and strong market demand.

    Systems Integration

    +862%

    The significant rise from $7.08 million to $68.11 million was largely due to a 1016% surge in Procurement Services (from $5.42 million to $60.48 million) and a 362% increase in Integration Services (from $1.65 million to $7.63 million), indicating a strategic focus on higher-margin and AI-enabled offerings.

    Facilities

    +8%

    A modest increase from $1.80 million to $1.95 million was achieved through gains in maintenance contracts, equipment sales, and discrete projects, highlighting a steady but less dynamic segment compared to the integration business.

    Net Income

    1100%

    Net income jumped from $209 thousand to $2,646 thousand due to the shift toward higher-yield services, improved cost management, and operational efficiencies that offset the previously lower margins from procurement activities.

    Operating Cash Flow

    Turnaround from a negative $16,848 thousand to a positive $38,627 thousand

    The dramatic improvement was fueled by better working capital management, including improved collections and timing differences in deferred revenues and payables, which reversed previous negative cash flow conditions.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Profitability

    Q4 2024

    no prior guidance

    slightly below Q3 2024 levels

    no prior guidance

    Performance

    H1 2025

    no prior guidance

    in line with the aggregate of Q2 2024 and Q3 2024

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Scalability and Capacity Expansion

    Q1, Q2, and Q4 2023 discussions consistently focused on achieving 10x growth in rack integration capacity through operational investments, strategic customer partnerships, and early planning for facility upgrades.

    Q3 2024 emphasized a proactive approach with a $25–30 million investment in a new facility to boost power capacity for AI rack integration, underlining flexibility to handle 2x–4x demand spirals and continued readiness for 10x growth potential.

    Consistent emphasis with enhanced facility investments and a sharper focus on power and cooling capabilities to support scalable growth.

    AI Market Growth and Technological Innovation

    Q1, Q2, and Q4 2023 highlighted the massive multiyear opportunity in AI, emphasizing generative AI demand, MDC trends, liquid cooling innovations, and the role of advanced cooling and power solutions in next‐generation rack design.

    Q3 2024 reiterated the multiyear AI infrastructure opportunity, now detailing a long‐term customer agreement and specific facility enhancements (60% more space, advanced cooling) to support next‐gen AI rack and MDC needs.

    Maintained optimistic sentiment, with a shift toward more detailed plans for facility upgrades and deeper integration of advanced cooling and power solutions.

    Dependency on Key Customers and Revenue Concentration Risks

    Q2 2024 provided mention of a significant OEM relationship and customer-funded capital investments, while Q1 and Q4 2023 had little to no discussion on this topic.

    Q3 2024 explicitly addressed a strong long‐term agreement with its primary customer to stabilize demand and enhance revenue visibility, mitigating feast–or–famine risks.

    Emerging clarity and emphasis, moving from minimal mention to a detailed discussion of how long-term customer relationships underpin revenue stability.

    Power Availability and Supply Chain Constraints

    Q2 2024 and Q4 2023 mentioned concerns regarding power limitations and component lead times (e.g. extended lead times for MDC components and supply constraints on chipsets and fiber cables), whereas Q1 2024 did not address these challenges.

    Q3 2024 placed power availability as the biggest potential bottleneck — detailing explicit plans with local infrastructure (new substation) and noting risks around NVIDIA chip supply, while reinforcing scenario planning for spikes in demand.

    Heightened focus in Q3 2024 on addressing power constraints and detailed supply chain risks, signaling that these challenges are under active management but remain significant for future growth.

    Capital Expenditure and Financial Risk

    Q1, Q2, and Q4 2023 discussions centered on various facility investments, capital investments (including OEM funding), and financial risk factors such as interest expenses and margin pressures, often noting improvements in operating income amid evolving revenue mixes.

    Q3 2024 outlined a major capital investment in a new facility with enhanced power and cooling features, alongside detailed interest expense figures and continued margin pressures due to a shift in revenue mix towards lower‐margin procurement activities.

    Continued capital investment amid financial risk management, with evolving emphasis on facility enhancements while balancing margin pressures driven by revenue mix changes.

    Modular Data Centers Adoption Challenges

    Q1, Q2, and Q4 2023 referenced MDCs in the context of evolving cooling needs and long deployment lead times, with early signals of market adoption challenges and customer decision hurdles.

    Q3 2024 discussed persistent challenges such as extended deployment lead times (notably due to design considerations for direct liquid cooling) and customer adoption hurdles, highlighting the need for continued engagement to accelerate MDC pipeline growth.

    Recurring concerns remain, though with a more detailed articulation in Q3 2024, suggesting that while MDCs are still a key opportunity, overcoming deployment and customer adoption hurdles is critical.

    Service Expansion and Sales Pipeline Enhancements

    Q1, Q2, and Q4 2023 emphasized expanding service offerings (e.g. in-field rack integration and data center move services) and building sales pipelines through OEM partnerships and direct customer engagement, reporting growing lead generation.

    Q3 2024 reinforced service expansion by announcing a long-term agreement with its primary customer, plans to relocate to a larger facility (60% more space), and highlighted robust sales pipelines with closing deals, particularly in MDCs and AI integration services.

    Sustained growth in service expansion and sales pipelines with an added strategic focus on leveraging facility upgrades and direct long-term customer agreements.

    Transparency and Disclosure Concerns

    Q1, Q2, and Q4 2023 discussions included varying levels of revenue breakdowns and caution on forecasting, with Q4 2023 notably addressing revenue recognition challenges in procurement and plans to improve disclosure.

    Q3 2024 further enhanced transparency by breaking out segmentation details for Systems Integration and Facilities Management in the MD&A, and acknowledged forecasting challenges due to the variability in procurement deals, along with clear commentary on seasonal and quarterly fluctuations.

    Evolving toward greater transparency, with Q3 2024 providing more granular revenue disclosure and candid discussion of forecasting uncertainties, building investor clarity.

    Profitability and Margin Erosion Pressures

    Q1, Q2, and Q4 2023 consistently noted troughs and improvements in profitability metrics—including shifts in gross profit margins due to increased procurement revenue—with Q4 2023 highlighting significant margin erosion (from a mix shift) yet improved net income figures.

    Q3 2024 reported dramatic improvements in net income, EPS, and adjusted EBITDA while concurrently revealing a substantial drop in overall gross margins due primarily to the lower margins in procurement services, underscoring the trade-off between higher volume and margin pressure.

    Mixed sentiment: Profitability in absolute terms improves markedly in Q3 2024, yet margin erosion persists due to revenue mix shifts, suggesting that while top-line growth is impressive, sustaining high-margin business remains a challenge.

    1. Competitor's Issues and Growth Opportunities
      Q: How will you capitalize on SMCI's potential delisting risk?
      A: While we can't comment on specific customers, we're prepared for growth spikes and have moved to accommodate increased demand. We're ready to take on 2x, 3x, or even 4x our recent volume, as there's significant AI rack building coming.

    2. Acquisition Interest
      Q: Would you entertain a buyout offer, perhaps from Dell?
      A: We have an obligation to our shareholders and will consider anything beneficial for our business and stakeholders. However, we're singularly focused on execution and letting other matters unfold as they may.

    3. Growth Bottlenecks
      Q: What's the biggest bottleneck to your future growth?
      A: Power availability and the supply of NVIDIA chips are the main constraints.

    4. Facility Capacity and Expansion
      Q: Is your new facility large enough for your growth plans?
      A: For now, it's sufficient. We've planned various growth scenarios, and our new facility can handle increased demand. There's extra space nearby if needed, and we're optimizing current space by moving inventory.

    5. Facilities Management Business Outlook
      Q: How attractive is the long-term potential of Facilities Management?
      A: The market has a 12–13% CAGR according to IDC. There's opportunity for growth around AI, especially with Modular Data Centers. While volumes may not match rack integration, we're optimistic about bookings by year-end that will produce revenue in 2025 and 2026.

    6. Current Capacity Utilization
      Q: Were you operating near full capacity during the June project?
      A: No, we weren't at full capacity. We have the ability to grow 10x from our current operations and expect to be sufficient for the next couple of years. We'll adapt to any unexpected demand increases if they occur.

    Research analysts covering TSS.