TD
Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue grew 25% year over year to $616.0M, exceeding S&P Global consensus of ~$575.3M; non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.33 vs consensus ~$0.248, reflecting broad-based strength and early benefits from Q4 upgrades . Revenue Consensus Mean and Primary EPS Consensus Mean marked with asterisks are from S&P Global data.*
- Adjusted EBITDA was $207.9M (34% margin), and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.10; management highlighted strong CTV and international growth, with Kokai adoption now at roughly two-thirds of clients .
- Q2 2025 guidance: revenue at least $682M and adjusted EBITDA
$259M; guide is roughly in line with Wall Street consensus for revenue ($686.0M), with continued emphasis on Kokai, UID2, OpenPath, and Sincera integration as execution priorities . Revenue Consensus Mean marked with an asterisk is from S&P Global data.* - Share repurchases totaled $386M in Q1 and legal/tactical shifts against “walled gardens” were cited as tailwinds for the open internet, positioning TTD to keep gaining share; management’s tone was confident and execution-focused .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Beat on revenue and EPS versus consensus: $616.0M revenue (+25% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS $0.33; CEO: “We delivered strong results in the first quarter, growing revenue 25% year-over-year…” . Revenue and EPS consensus values marked with asterisks are from S&P Global data.*
- Kokai adoption and performance: ~two-thirds of clients using Kokai; clients that shifted saw 42% lower cost per unique reach, 24% lower cost per conversion, and 20% lower CPA; “Kokai…has been a game changer, and we are just getting started.” .
- Strong CTV and international growth: Video (incl. CTV) remains largest and fastest-growing channel; international growth outpaced North America for the ninth consecutive quarter .
What Went Wrong
- Macro volatility and brand caution: Management cited increased uncertainty, especially among large global brands; Q2 guide framed with macro stability caveat .
- Margin compression sequentially: Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 34% in Q1 from 47% in Q4; GAAP net income margin slipped to 8% from 25% in Q4 (seasonality and investments) .
- Elevated stock-based compensation: SBC was $128.3M in Q1, including a $24M CEO performance grant in G&A; investors may watch dilution and expense discipline .
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance vs Prior Periods
Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus (Q1 2025)
Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights (Q1 2025)
Guidance Changes
Company did not provide guidance for GAAP net income, tax rate, OpEx, OI&E, or dividends .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We delivered strong results in the first quarter, growing revenue 25% year-over-year to $616 million… strategic upgrades in Q4 contributed to our outperformance” – Jeff Green, CEO .
- “Kokai…has already proven itself and the results are fantastic. The injection of our industry-leading CoA AI tools across every aspect of our platform has been a game changer” – Jeff Green .
- “Assuming the macro environment remains stable…in Q2, we expect revenue to be at least $682 million… adjusted EBITDA ~ $259 million” – Laura Schenkein, CFO .
- “OpenPath…helps maximize value for everyone involved… publishers saw 8.6x fill-rate and +97% revenue (NY Post)” – Jeff Green .
Q&A Highlights
- Product/go-to-market upgrades: Management emphasized Kokai adoption (~two-thirds of clients), AI injection across platform, and stronger product-engineering cadence; JVP pipeline growing faster than overall spend .
- Regulatory outcomes: Multiple antitrust verdicts against Google and auction mechanics scrutiny viewed as catalysts for a fairer market favoring open internet and TTD’s objective model .
- Q2 guide and macro: Guidance framed with macro stability assumption; management focused on “grabbing land” or accelerating growth depending on conditions .
- Competitive landscape: Amazon’s DSP is positioned as primarily a buying tool for Prime Video; TTD’s neutrality cited as advantage for premium CTV publishers .
- OpenPath and upfronts: Expect weaker linear and stronger programmatic/digital given uncertainty; Deal Desk product to enable more forward-like markets; OpenPath case studies highlight efficiency gains .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 results vs consensus: Revenue $616.0M vs ~$575.3M*, Primary EPS $0.33 (non-GAAP) vs ~$0.248*; both beats. Coverage: ~33 revenue estimates and ~21 EPS estimates for Q1 . Numbers with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Q2 2025: Company guided ≥$682M revenue vs consensus ~$686.0M*, indicating roughly in-line expectations; focus remains on execution and macro monitoring . Numbers with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Strong beat and improved execution: Revenue and EPS exceeded consensus, with adjusted EBITDA ahead of prior Q1 guide; upgrades from Q4 are translating to performance .
- Kokai adoption is a tangible driver: Efficiency gains (lower cost per unique reach/CPA/conversion) support budget unlocks and mix shift toward TTD platform .
- CTV/international momentum intact: CTV remains largest and fastest-growing; international growth continues to outpace North America .
- Supply chain transparency a differentiator: OpenPath + Sincera integration enhances visibility and buyer leverage; documented publisher monetization improvements .
- Legal tailwinds for open internet: Antitrust outcomes and platform policy rulings may structurally improve competition vs walled gardens, aligning with TTD’s objective buyer model .
- Capital allocation: Robust operating cash flow ($291.4M) and $386M buybacks in Q1; no balance sheet debt; continued opportunistic repurchases .
- Near-term setup: Q2 guide roughly in line with consensus and framed with macro caveats; sustained product cadence (Deal Desk, Open Sincera) and UID2/OpenPath adoption are key narrative drivers .
Relevant Q1 2025 Press Releases
- Agreement to acquire Sincera (Jan 15, 2025): Enhances supply chain transparency and data signal valuation for advertisers/publishers .
- Vivek Kundra appointed COO (Mar 12, 2025): Adds operational rigor and scaling experience from Salesforce/US Government .
References:
- Form 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1: Q1 2025 results, financial statements, and guidance .
- Q1 2025 press release .
- Q1 2025 earnings call transcript: prepared remarks and Q&A .
- Prior quarters: Q4 2024 press release ; Q3 2024 press release .
- Additional Q1 press releases: Sincera acquisition agreement ; COO appointment .
S&P Global disclaimer: All consensus estimate values marked with asterisks were retrieved from S&P Global.