TETRA Technologies - Q4 2023
February 28, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, and welcome to TETRA Technologies' fourth quarter 2023 results conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Rigo Gonzalez. Go ahead.
Rigo Gonzalez (Manager of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations)
Thank you, Joelle. Good morning, and thank you for joining TETRA's fourth quarter 2023 results call. The speakers for today's call are Brady Murphy, Chief Executive Officer, and Elijio Serrano, Chief Financial Officer. I would like to remind you that this conference call may contain statements that are or may be deemed to be forward-looking, including projections, financial guidance, profitability, and estimated earnings. These statements are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by TETRA and are based on several factors. These statements are subject to several risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the company. We are cautioned that such statements are not guarantees of future performance and that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.
In addition, in the course of the call, we may refer to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA gross margins, free cash flow, net debt, net leverage ratio, liquidity, returns on net capital employed, or other non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to yesterday's press release or to our public website for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the nearest GAAP measures. These reconciliations are not a substitute for financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP and should be considered within the context of a complete financial results for the period. In addition to our press release announcement, we encourage you to refer to our 10-K that we also filed yesterday. I will now turn it over to Brady.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Thank you, Rigo. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tetra's fourth quarter earnings call. 2023 was a historical year for the company, and despite higher than usual year-ending activity slowdowns in a few of our segments, we are seeing good activity recovery in the first half of 2024 and expect another year of growth. For 2023, we achieved numerous historical financial highs, but also achieved some strategic milestones that will benefit the company for many years to come. Our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA, excluding mark-to-market, of $106 billion, grew by 37% from 2022 and nearly three times higher than that of 2021, as both of our segments posted another year of strong returns.
Our full year 2023 adjusted free cash flow of $41.1 million was 61.6% higher than 2022 and was slightly above our guidance from the beginning of the year, representing approximately a 40% conversion rate of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow. This was achieved despite significant investments made in Arkansas and investments made to finalize the engineering design for our first ever commercial produced water for beneficial reuse project, a solution that we believe will be disruptive for the industry in transforming oil and gas well-produced water from a waste into an important resource. Our strong 2023 adjusted EBITDA growth was achieved despite little contributions from TETRA CS Neptune and TETRA PureFlow, which we believe will be a catalyst for further growth in 2024.
For the full year, our completion fluids and product segment grew revenue by $40 million or 15%, while adjusted EBITDA grew $22 million or 32%, representing an EBITDA fall through of nearly 55%, driven by a strong performance in our industrial chemicals business and growth in our international offshore completion fluids operations. Full year completion fluids and products revenue of $313 million was the highest since 2015, when we completed 2 large TETRA CS Neptune projects in the Gulf of Mexico. Our industrial chemicals business boasted a historical year, achieving its highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA in our history.
With 2023 revenue growth over 2022 of over 18%, our industrial chemicals business is now 22% of the company's total revenue, and as we ramp up deliveries of zinc bromide-based electrolyte in the coming years, we expect this percentage to continue to increase. Our diversity and product offering, including grades for technology and food and superior product qualities, allows us to participate in a wide range of markets and applications, as evidenced by our recent entry into the lithium production process in South America and the chip manufacturing process in the United States. Our leading market positions in Northern Europe and U.S. gives us stable markets in which to operate with predictable revenue and earnings and strong free cash flow, allowing us to reinvest in our new high growth opportunities.
For energy services, total revenue attributed to offshore projects increased 11% year-over-year, and we anticipate another double-digit top-line growth in 2024 as our pipeline of offshore projects continues to build. We have already recovered the investments made in recent years, where we strategically expanded capacity in key deepwater offshore markets and expect to continue to generate positive momentum in those markets. We have intentionally built our inventory levels to capture the upcoming growth in deepwater activity. Although floater utilization shows increasing rig availability through 2024, Rystad expects operators will continue to exercise outstanding options and/or continue to recontract rigs currently under contract. Marketed utilization is expected to peak in 2028 at 91% due to steady growth in project development activity. TETRA is well positioned to benefit from this multi-year growth trajectory.
Our outlook for TETRA CS Neptune continues to improve, and we've secured a second quarter job in the North Sea, and we are in early discussions with two different super majors for projects in the Gulf of Mexico that are scheduled for late 2024 or early 2025. Earlier this month, the executive team and I visited Eos' state-of-the-art automated manufacturing line at the ACRO Wisconsin facility, and came away with high confidence they will deliver to Eos' requirements. Earlier this year, Eos announced that it expanded its partnership with TETRA and designated the company as its preferred strategic supplier for the full electrolyte of its Z3 long-duration energy storage cube. The company was previously only providing our TETRA PureFlow zinc bromide solution, which was only a portion of the full electrolyte.
The evolution of increasing TETRA's participation with Eos from only TETRA PureFlow to the full electrolyte, will be accomplished without the need for incremental bromine, and is a good fit within our chemistry expertise. TETRA is expected to supply a minimum of 75% of the total electrolyte product demand going forward, and we anticipate deliveries to be meaningfully higher than 2023, mostly in the second half of the year. This relationship and the timing of their expected growth also dovetails nicely with our Arkansas bromine production plans. Turning to our water and flowback services segment, despite declining rig activity and active free frac fleets for most of 2023, our full-year revenue was up $33 million or 12%, and adjusted EBITDA was up $10 million or 23%.
The majority of the growth was driven by continued market share gains and high utilization within our fleet of TETRA SandStorm, and an increasing part of our business dealing with produced water, which, despite declining U.S. drilling and completion activity in 2023, is only increasing, along with oil and gas production. The market share gains and benefits of shifting our focus to production rather than drill bit, can be seen by our 2023 revenue exceeding that of our previous year high in 2018, but with 50% less rig activity. These market share gains were achieved as we improved our adjusted EBITDA margins from 15.5% to 17% in 2023. International business, mainly Argentina, also drove some of the revenue increase.
Although we strategically sold 1 of our EPFs in the fourth quarter, we anticipate earnings to be flat year-over-year in that region. As previously mentioned, these projects are longer-term contracts with established day rates, which also provide a steady stream of cash flows. Over the last several years, we have deployed significant growth capital in this segment to build out our fleet of TETRA Sandstorms, introduce new technology to help drive efficiencies, increase our capacity for water treatment and recycling, and investments in EPFs to grow beyond North America. These investments are paying off, as demonstrated by our improvement in return on net capital employed, as we expect that they will continue to drive higher returns.
As we move forward with this segment, we will continue to invest in technology and automation, but we'll maintain our focus on returns rather than additional growth, as we plan to divert much of the growth capital to Arkansas and our produced water for beneficial reuse projects. In November, a 5.2 magnitude earthquake was recorded in the Permian Basin, marking the fourth strongest recorded in Texas. Just within the past few weeks, earthquakes over 4.0 magnitude were reported in New Mexico, South Texas, and Oklahoma. As earthquakes become more frequent and more intense in areas of produced water disposal, regulators have increased sense of urgency to limit volumes of produced water disposal and find alternative solutions. Multiple agencies across multiple states are now very active in defining regulatory specifications for using produced water for industrial, farming, and other applications.
TETRA is engaging with the regulatory agencies as well as operators to ensure our solutions will meet these requirements. We met our year-end target date to complete the engineering design for our first commercial produced water for beneficial reuse project. We are currently in advanced negotiations with one of the largest U.S. oil producers for their beneficial reuse project, and have entered commercial discussions for a second high salinity Permian Basin demonstration project. We are on track to deploy our first commercial project in the second half of this year. Lastly, in 2023, we significantly advanced our Arkansas lithium and bromine brine project. In June, we announced an MOU with Saltwerx LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of ExxonMobil, to pool both of our acreage to form the Evergreen Brine Unit, which is subsequently and unanimously approved by the AOGC in September.
In the fourth quarter, we launched and completed a technical resource recovery study for the Evergreen Brine Unit, which advanced our prior inferred resources to include the measured and indicated category, reflecting higher confidence in the resources evaluated by the study. The study highlighted the highest lithium concentrations to date of any lithium brine resource in the U.S., for which an S-K 1300, NI 43-101 or JORC compliant technical report summary has been published. I'm also pleased to announce that yesterday, we closed on a 120-acre plant site that is ideally located just south of Stamps, Arkansas, that is within our 35,000 leased acres and 1 mile north of our Evergreen Brine Unit. We're currently performing soil sampling before planning to break ground later this year.
Finally, we're currently focused on completing the lithium FEED study, as well as finalizing the negotiations for operating joint venture and/or joint development agreements relating to the development of the Evergreen Brine Unit. Based on that report, plus the engineering studies that were previously completed, we were able to secure the remaining finances required to complete the bromine processing facility once we get to FID, which we expect to be later this year. Now I'll turn it over to Elijio to provide some additional commentary on the successful financing and our financial results. Then we'll open it up to questions.
Elijio Serrano (Senior VP and CFO)
Thank you, Brady, and good morning, everybody. 2023 was a strong year for TETRA. Adjusted EBITDA was up 37% and operating income was up 183%. Adjusted EBITDA margins of 17.1% increased 300 basis points year-over-year. And more importantly, we generated over $40 million of free cash flow in 2023. We also significantly improved our balance sheet, ending the year with a net leverage ratio of 1.1x and a 27% reduction in net debt. As of February 26, liquidity was $212 million, inclusive of the $75 million delayed draw feature that is available to TETRA for the bromine project.
In addition, based on Friday's closing prices, our holdings in Standard Lithium and CSI Compressco combine for a total market cap of approximately $12 million, and these investments can be monetized as necessary. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we refinance, extended, and expanded our term loan at a more attractive interest rate than our prior term loan, further strengthening our balance sheet and providing us the flexibility to execute on our growth initiatives. We were very pleased with the reception we got on the refinancing. We reached out to a significant number of potential capital providers, including those in the oil and gas, mining, and chemical sector, and received interest from over 60 capital providers.
We received 11 term sheets, and 5 of those wanted on their own to help us refinance the entire term loan with our partners, providing us the capital to help us with the bromine initiative and indicate a strong interest in supporting us with the required capital for the lithium initiative. In talking to those in the industry, getting 5 term sheets from capital providers willing to take on the entire opportunity on their own, plus another 6 willing to be part of a consortium, is rare for a small or mid-cap oil field services company in today's environment.
We believe this demonstrates the value of a company like TETRA, with over $100 million of adjusted EBITDA, a leverage ratio of 1.1x, free cash flow of over $40 million, and working with a partner like ExxonMobil, plus an industrial chemicals revenue base of $130 million, not subject to the fluctuations of the oil and gas industry. Plus, a history of being free cash flow and EBITDA positive in the last two downturns, makes us an attractive partner to raise capital. Our term was refinanced 50 basis points below our prior term loan, and the maturity is now January of 2030. Our balance sheet is nicely set to invest in lithium and bromine in Arkansas.
Between our current liquidity, expected free cash flow in 2024 and 2025, plus the $75 million delayed draw feature available to us, we believe we have the capital necessary to complete the bromine project without having to issue equity. Our focus will now shift towards finding the capital for our 49% of the expected lithium joint venture with ExxonMobil. Just like we did with the bromine project, our objective is to source the capital for lithium without relying on the equity market. We will evaluate project financing at the JV level and government loans and grants for a portion of the lithium project. From an outlook perspective, we expect 2024 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow to be above 2023. As mentioned earlier, 2023 cash flow was $41 million.
Our base business free cash flow in 2024 is expected to be better than 2023, before investments in bromine and the lithium projects in Arkansas. We don't expect our Arkansas investments in 2024 to be more than the free cash flow we generated from our base business, and we don't expect to use our delayed draw revolver until 2025. We believe we remain on plan to be generating revenue and EBITDA from the bromine and lithium projects in 2026. We also expect a ramp-up in electrolyte sales into the stationary battery storage market in the second half of 2024. We also expect to be generating revenue and EBITDA from the first desalination project in the second half of 2024. These will be the catalyst for 2024 being stronger than 2023.
In the first quarter, we expect water management to be stronger than the fourth quarter due to the ramp-up in fracking activity that we saw early this quarter. We expect flowback services to be weaker in the first quarter, relative to the fourth quarter, as the flowback lags water management and fracking by 2-3 months. The sum total of this is that Q1 water management and flowback services, EBITDA, should be comparable to Q4, but then stronger in the second quarter as flowback services rebounds from a stronger first quarter fracking activity. Also, remember that in the second quarter, we see a seasonal peak in the industrial chemicals business in Northern Europe, that has historically added approximately $50 million in revenue, Q2 over Q1, and has added between $4 million-$6 million in EBITDA, Q2 over Q1.
We expect the second quarter of 2024 to be at or above the second quarter of last year. From an investor relations perspective, we have several events coming up to help us further communicate our initiatives. We will be hosting one-on-ones tomorrow at the Scotia Conference in Miami. Northland Capital, who initiated coverage on TETRA last month, will be hosting us for a virtual fireside chat on March 14th. Kurt Hallead with Benchmark, who also recently initiated coverage on TETRA, will be hosting us for a non-deal roadshow in New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston in the first week of April. This will include a group lunch on April first in New York City with Brady, myself, and our chairman of the board, Jay Glick. Please reach out to me if you would like to participate in any of these events.
The strong performance by our base business, our long duration battery storage opportunity, and our lithium arrangements with ExxonMobil have created strong industry interest in TETRA. We now have six research analysts covering TETRA, up from just a couple of years ago. I'll turn this back to Brady for closing comments before we open up the call to questions.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Thanks, Elijio. We're ending 2024 with a strong and growing base business, a solid balance sheet, over $210 million liquidity, with a constructive outlook for our products and services. We anticipate further growth in 2024 and expect to continue to generate strong free cash flow from our base business to fund our strategic growth investments. Combination of these, plus advances in our produced water beneficial reuse solution, our Arkansas resource position, and strategic partnerships, provides us with the opportunity to continue to drive long-term shareholder value. While 2023 was a historical year for the company, we anticipate 2024 to be both historic and transformational. With that, we'll now open up the questions.
Operator (participant)
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then the one on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Martin Malloy with Johnson Rice. Please go ahead.
Martin Malloy (Director of Equity Research)
Good morning, and congratulations on the strong 2023 and the free cash flow generation.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Martin Malloy (Director of Equity Research)
My first question, just wanted to see if maybe you could go over... I think I heard FID, the bromine project later this year, but could you go over maybe the timing of the CapEx requirements for the bromine project and also the associated, and I guess, the amount in the associated wells and pipes?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Sure, sure, Marty. I'll, I'll take the first part of that and then maybe ask Elijio to talk about the, you know, the capital outlay. But as far as timing goes, as you know, we completed the bromine FEED study last year. And we have been layering over that FEED study with the lithium FEED study because they will be on the same plant site, and obviously there are some synergies that we can gain by having two plants on the same site, which we mentioned we just closed on yesterday, 120 acres just south of Stamps, Arkansas.
And so we hope to have the lithium, or sorry, the bromine cost analysis completed within the next couple of months to where we can take that proposal to the board with updated economics and get approval to move forward with the bromine phase portion of that project. The lithium, as you know, is with our JV partner or hopefully to-be JV partner. That one, we think, will follow after the bromine FID, probably late Q3, potentially Q4. And then we're obviously working with them once we get our final agreements in place to decide how the funding of that will be handled. And with that, I'll ask Elijio to give some more comments.
Elijio Serrano (Senior VP and CFO)
Yeah, Marty, with respect to the capital for the bromine side, we'll start placing orders for long lead items. We'll begin and finish doing the detailed engineering design, and then we'll begin doing a lot of the civil work during this year. We don't expect a significant amount of the construction to begin until next year. On the lithium side, once we and our partner agree to approve the project and move forward, any investments that we make, remember, are gonna be shared between us and our partner. The sum total of all those is that expenditures this year, we believe, will be below the free cash flow that we generate from base business, keeping us from borrowing any on the delayed draw or ABL facility this year.
Martin Malloy (Director of Equity Research)
Thank you. And my follow-up question, I wanted to ask about the desalination or water reuse plant. And the first one, could you maybe talk about ownership and CapEx related to it and what the finished water after it comes out of this plant, what it is expected to be used for?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Sure. So a couple pieces of that question. In terms of this particular project, our first project, the way we are outlining responsibilities for the project, we will own the desal technology and equipment that is on location. Our partner will be providing the capital for the civil works and the site construction costs. So it'll be a bit of a combined offering, but this is a multi-year, targeted for over 5 years, types of project, targeting between 20,000 and 25,000 barrels per day of produced water for desalination.
Now, the specifications of that water, if you remember, Marty, we completed last year a pilot project using the same technology, where we were able to desalinate 92% of the brine, or produced water inflow to freshwater specifications, that ourselves and the regulators would meet the current regulatory environment, and ourselves and our customer are very happy with. So that's the commercial design that we have now built. And as I said, we'll be owning the equipment and the technology, and our partner will be owning the site and the civil works for that particular location.
Martin Malloy (Director of Equity Research)
Great. Thank you. I'll turn it back.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from Bobby Brooks with Northland Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Bobby Brooks (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. So kind of want to stick with the beneficial produced water project. So it seems to continue to progress really nicely, and, you know, that's the most near term of the emerging revenue opportunities you're pursuing. And I know you kind of just touched on it, but maybe to give some more color, could you remind those of, you know, maybe some of those key milestones achieved so far? Obviously, you already touched on those preliminary results last year. And then, secondly, maybe could you talk about the next steps investors should be watching for on this project?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Sure.
Bobby Brooks (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Maybe just talk about the size of the opportunity and how you would anticipate you scale into it.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Sure. So let me recap and highlight, you know, kind of the path that we've taken to get us to where we are. As you remember, last year, or maybe a year and a half ago, we announced two strategic partnerships that are kind of integral to the total desalination solution that we have. Hyrec was identified as a reverse osmosis technology that met our requirements, along with our pretreatment technologies, proprietary pretreatment technology. We felt that was the optimum solution for what I'll call lower TDS, lower total dissolved solids solutions, 60,000 or so parts per million and below. Appropriate for South Texas, Colorado, many different environments here in the U.S., but not for the Permian. Permian is very high total dissolved solids, TDS.
For that partnership, we had chosen KMX. Both of those relationships that we have, and that uses a vacuum distillation technology. For both of those relationships, we have exclusive applications for the oil and gas-produced water beneficial reuse and have tailored our pretreatment, which, remember, this is very different than desalinating ocean water. This has, you know, a lot of very complex minerals, organics in the fluid, and so that pretreatment is very critical to the ultimate solution. Those two partnerships, we've progressed. We've done significant testing of produced water samples from customers across the U.S. at our research facility, and entered into negotiations with, again, a large oil producer, one of the largest in North America, to put together a commercial project design and proposal for an application in South Texas.
That is the first commercial project that we're in commercial discussions with today that we expect to deploy during the second half of the year. That same customer is also very aware of what we're doing on the higher TDS levels in the Permian Basin with the KMX technology, and we are now in commercial discussions with them for a pilot unit using that technology and our pretreatment for the Permian Basin. That project we expect to also have launched this year. So we are hoping to have a full commercial production unit in place, as well as a demonstrated pilot commercial unit in place for the Permian. And then the customer interest, as you can imagine, given the current environment, is just quite significant for us to keep pace with. But those are two near-term focuses.
Bobby Brooks (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thanks. And then, you know, so turning to the industrial chemicals segment. You know, so destocking was a headwind in the fourth quarter, but then you mentioned in the press release, you know, that in the second quarter of 2024, you're, you know, expecting to see that traditional northern European, you know, industrial chemical demand ramp up. I know you also already, I know, I know you also mentioned you've already seen a start, a sharp rebound to start 2024. But, you know, aside from that, is there any more color on why you expect that rebound? And maybe just talk about the visibility you have on that trend in terms of, you know, destocking headwinds, you know-
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah
Bobby Brooks (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
... falling.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah. So last year, as we'd mentioned, was an historical high for our industrial chemicals business. I think we said it grew 18% year-on-year. Highest revenue and EBITDA numbers we have seen in that business. But we did see some year-end destocking as customers kind of rebalanced their purchases that they had made with year-end targets to a higher level than probably we have seen in past years. But we're very pleased to see that the start of the year reversed that trend quite sharply, and the order flow has been very consistent in the upward direction. And as Elijio said, we expect our Q2 to be very much in line with expectations. But we're also seeing, again, continued offshore completion fluids activity churn.
It's a little lumpier, obviously, than our industrial chemicals business, so we can see more fluctuations quarter by quarter. But we expect the first half of 2024 in our completion services business to be above the first half of 2023 at a double-digit pace. And then, combined with our industrial chemicals, gives us a strong, you know, first half of the year outlook.
Bobby Brooks (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. So first half 2024 for completion fluids above first half 2023 at a double-digit pace. Did I hear that correctly?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah, that's correct.
Bobby Brooks (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. And then, last one for me, you know, and sticking with the completion fluids business, you know, highest, highest revenue, highest EBITDA, you know, since I think it's—I think you've mentioned since 2015 when there was, when you guys completed 2 large CS Neptune projects in the Gulf of Mexico. Could you maybe just remind us how many, you know, CS Neptune projects you did in, you know, 2023, and maybe just give some directional color on where that goes in 2024? I know you mentioned, you know, already, already got one in the North Sea and then talking to 2 super majors in the Gulf of Mexico, but maybe just frame that up a little more.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah, sure. So, the Neptune jobs, we did have some jobs in the North Sea, but they are typically smaller volume jobs. And sometimes it's, you know, it's difficult to actually, you know, see the impact of those jobs from the North Sea perspective relative to a normal large, you know, calcium bromide job, for instance, in the Gulf of Mexico. So, but we're very pleased with the trend that we're seeing in terms of our outside of the Gulf of Mexico, Neptune. It's just that they're typically smaller jobs than what we see in the Gulf of Mexico. The jobs in the Gulf of Mexico are just really quite different, just due to the volume of the fluid.
The jobs that we referenced in 2015, I think they were on the order of $15 million-$20 million apiece types of jobs. Those are the types of jobs that, you know, we have in the Gulf of Mexico. We've, we don't know what the jobs that we're currently in discussions with will be, of that size or magnitude, because we're still in early discussions with the, with those customers, but it just gives you a sense of, you know, the types of, size and scale of those jobs versus, versus the North Sea. But, you know, we're just, we're just very pleased to see the traction we're getting with the technology, and we know that, you know, the activity will, will follow over, over the years.
Bobby Brooks (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. I appreciate it, Brady, and look forward to, you know, looking forward to hosting you guys, you know, on the fourth-
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah. Thank you, Bobby, very much. Look forward to it as well.
Bobby Brooks (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Awesome. I'll withdraw.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from Kurt Hallead with Benchmark. Please go ahead.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Hey, good morning, guys.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Morning.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Hey, appreciate all that detail, and info. So just, Elijio, you know, you gave some indications here that, you know, the first quarter may start off a little bit light, particularly in the water and flowback, you know, part of your business. But as you look out for the rest of the year, and you kinda look at where, I guess, the consensus EBITDA numbers out there at $120 million plus, do you have, you have good line of sight as to the progression that you feel confident that you can get to at least $120 million in EBITDA for the year?
Elijio Serrano (Senior VP and CFO)
Yeah. I won't comment on the actual total year number, because six months down the road is a long way down the road. I did say earlier that the combination of, electrolyte sales into the stationary, stationary battery market, plus the desalination and the deepwater activity, especially the, projects that Brady made reference to, give us confidence that, 2024 is gonna be stronger than 2023 for us.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Okay. All right. So, yeah, I'm kind of curious in, in the context of, your, your, your, report that you had here on the lithium front that indicated that, resource potential was, what? 3x your, your prior report. And, just kinda so can you put that into context for us in, in, in the dynamic of, you know, how does that alter, you know, how much you think you might have to invest to, to ramp up production or get your facility going? And, you know, is it, is it significantly larger in the context that it's gonna require more capital?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
So I'll speak to the resource and then touch on the capital, and if Elijio wants to add any more. So if you recall, initially, Kurt, we had applied to the Arkansas Oil and Gas, preparing to apply to the Arkansas Oil and Gas for our own acreage that TETRA had held. It was, I think, between 4,500 and 5,000 acres that we had applied for a unit. And right before that, our partnership evolved with ExxonMobil, and we decided to combine acreage for a larger unit. Right now, that unit is the Evergreen unit, with is 6,138 acres.
There was an expansion of the original lithium in place, but also, more importantly, the lithium concentrations after we completed the Evergreen number 1 well, was well above expectations in terms of the concentration, and then the reservoir rock quality turned out to be exceptional as well. So all those factors combined, when you look at the resource report for lithium today versus what it was initially when we did our inferred study a couple of years ago, was nearly 3x the volume. And obviously, volume of lithium translates into how much brine has to be processed, which also translates into financials. So again, we're quite encouraged by what we see. In terms of the capital, that's still under evaluation. We don't have a firm number to be able to provide yet.
That's part of the FEED analysis that's ongoing. But again, we think the synergies of having a bromine plant and a lithium plant on site managed by, you know, one partnership is going to show some very attractive financials on both sides of the equation there.
Elijio Serrano (Senior VP and CFO)
And, Kurt, I'll add that the upstream work, the work that we're doing with the source wells, the disposal wells, and the pipelines to move the brine from the wells to and from the processing facility, is shared. So pulling brine is going to feed both the lithium and the bromine projects, also creating significant synergies on the upstream side.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Okay. Gotcha. Yeah, and then, you know, again, focusing on the emerging growth opportunities you have, again, on, on lithium desalination/reuse, and you're supplying those electrolytes into the battery energy storage systems, right? It looks like you have some revenue opportunities on the battery storage front coming. You got this year, you got the desal revenue opportunity starting this year. So what do you, what do you think the, when do you think first revenue could be for, for lithium?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
First revenue for lithium is more likely an early 2027, late 2026 or early 2027 at this point.
Kurt Hallead (Head of Global Energy)
Okay. Gotcha. All right, thank you.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Thanks, Kurt.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from Patrick Ouellette with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Patrick Ouellette (Equity Research Associate)
Hey, good morning, it's Pat on for Stephen Gengaro. Thanks for taking the questions.
Elijio Serrano (Senior VP and CFO)
Morning.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Morning.
Patrick Ouellette (Equity Research Associate)
So, hey, good morning. Given the U.S. land outlook right now, do you think you can grow the water business faster than activity? And then on the margin side, during 2023, you had strong margin progression in the water business. Obviously, fourth quarter dropped off a bit. Just curious how we could think about this as a high teens margin business going forward or more around the level seen in the fourth quarter?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah, so I'll take that and ask Elijio to add some color. So if you look at our business, as I'd mentioned, relative to rig count, you know, we exceeded our revenue in 2023 over 2018, which was our previous high, by 12% on 50% less rig count. So that shows an ability to continue to grow in a period of declining completion activity. And a lot of that has to do with technology that we deployed. The SandStorm has gained significant market share, continues to gain market share in North America, so that continues to be a growth catalyst for us. But also focus on produced water, you know, rather than the basic, you know, water transfer-type services, which is more of a completion-related activity.
Clearly, we won't get the benefit of significant benefit of the desal project in 2024, but we still, still do expect growth in our water and flowback segment in 2024 over 2023. And then, hopefully, as, as things progress with our desal, we would see a, a step change in our desalination revenue in 2025.
Elijio Serrano (Senior VP and CFO)
And Pat-
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah.
Elijio Serrano (Senior VP and CFO)
I'll add on the margins to your question on the margins. We have spent quite a bit of time on automation and reducing the number of personnel at the well, at the well site. We've also focused aggressively on introducing technology that we believe creates some barriers to entry against some of our local and regional competitors, such as with the SandStorm technology. And just to give you a sense, a couple of weeks ago, I was out in the Permian Basin, and we had one of the largest, produced water, treatment jobs going on, and we're operating it with one person on site. And the amount of revenue that we're generating relative to the amount of personnel that we have today versus what we had several years ago, is a step change.
The combination of those is what we think will make this a EBITDA margin business that will be high teens.
Patrick Ouellette (Equity Research Associate)
All right. Thanks, both of you. That, that's helpful. This relates to an earlier question, so apologies if you had explicitly laid this out. I was just struggling to make out what you were saying. As we think about the global deepwater market, you'd noted that revenue attributable offshore projects increased 11% year-over-year, and expectations for continued expansion. Just curious, can the completions business deliver mid-teens growth in 2024, similar to that of 2023?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
To go.
Elijio Serrano (Senior VP and CFO)
Yeah, we believe that, it can. Brady mentioned some Neptune opportunities. We only saw a handful of smaller opportunities in the North Sea. The opportunities that we're engaged with customers on are now in the Gulf of Mexico, and because of the depth and the volume of fluid that those projects take, that can be a significant contributor. Also, a lot of the new rigs that are being introduced, that are coming online in the Gulf of Mexico, are for customers that we've got the contracts in place with. So we think the combination of those will allow a double-digit growth year-over-year on the completion fluid side.
Patrick Ouellette (Equity Research Associate)
Great. Thanks for the comment.
Operator (participant)
Again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. Your next question comes from Tim Moore with EF Hutton. Please go ahead.
Tim Moore (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Thanks, and congratulations on the overall 2023 organic sales growth and EBITDA margin expansion. It's really nice to see the free cash flow, too, and I'm glad Saltwerx is helping out with that. Most of my questions have already been asked, but maybe let me just start off with, you know, completion sales. You know, it seems like double-digit growth is possible this year, depending on the Gulf of Mexico, Neptune project, if it falls in the-... December quarter or not. But just switching gears back to water and flowback sales growth this year. I, I know Brady, you just mentioned, you know, the expectation is that it'll grow. Do you think it could be mid-single-digit growth? And is that dependent on kind of the earlier comments Brady mentioned about, you know, you're reallocating some growth CapEx to Arkansas and desalination.
Even if it is mid-single-digit growth this year, could the opportunity have been bigger if you reinvested more and didn't have those other projects?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah. So I think strategically, we will continue to invest in the automation technology and selective SandStorm customers, you know, where we're getting the pricing, the premium pricing that we want. So we are focused more on returns. As far as your question, can we achieve, you know, single mid-digit growth? Yes, we feel that's achievable in 2024. But again, we're really more focused on returns and margin enhancement with that business. We could grow more, but that's a strategic decision that we're taking at this point to use the free cash flow that we had discussed for what we think will be, you know, longer term, you know, much higher return and growth businesses for us.
Tim Moore (Managing Director of Equity Research)
That makes sense, Brady. I love the ROI aspect and the self-help. Yeah, I enjoyed seeing all the SandStorms when I was down in the Permian a year and a half ago on site. But actually, just switching gears to my favorite topic, you know, they've been publishing on for maybe 15 months, the desalination or produced water opportunity. I've been putting an EBITDA estimate out there for it for over a year. But I know that it's more second-half loaded, and you know, what about the progress being made maybe with the Railroad Commission of Texas and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality? Have they, you know, have they established the purity levels of the TDS? I mean, I know you have the 92% desalination-
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah
Tim Moore (Managing Director of Equity Research)
-level risk, but have they zeroed in and finalized the purity level TDS hurdle?
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah. So great question. I mean, I think with the. And look, they've been looking at this now for several years, but I think I get working with these agencies, the sense of urgency has really ratcheted up. And as far as overall TDS, we're well below the overall TDS level. Now we're in the very discrete parts per million of certain minerals, organics, those types of things, and we're working to understand the final regulatory requirements for each of those applications. It's gonna have a different application. I think, different levels for industrial applications, different levels for farming. You know, you've got very discrete now, beneficial reuse applications that are being defined. And the agencies are working with the operators and companies like ourselves, who have the technology, you know, to help get those specifications.
So it's become a very collaborative process, more so than I've ever seen, certainly within the last six months. We've had several meetings with New Mexico Produced Water Consortium, for instance, the Railroad Commission, and our customers to really nail down these requirements. And it's coming together quite rapidly at this point.
Tim Moore (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Great. That's, that's really helpful, and very excited about that, given I was on site, and so what you can do with the pretreatment, a year and a half ago. But my last question is around, you know, the business I think investors really aren't giving you any credit for, and it's awfully stable, and if not, growing quite nicely. The industrial calcium chloride business, and at the end of the year last year, I think you said it was up 18%.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Um, yeah.
Tim Moore (Managing Director of Equity Research)
You know, a little bit of that was lapping that, that supply chain, raw material-
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah
Tim Moore (Managing Director of Equity Research)
-impact in Finland from the Ukraine the year before. But even when you strip that out, I mean, it's still double digits. Is there anything else you're doing there with the supply agreements? And, you know, to really keep that up, I mean, it's something almost like 30-year EBITDA. So, I just love to hear a little bit more about that business.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah, that business is running very, very well for us. Combination of, you know, you know, good, solid management teams that we have, great infrastructure that we have in place, but also, you know, finding new markets. As I've mentioned, you know, we penetrated two new markets in 2023 that, you know, were not significant, but they have significant growth potential for us. The calcium chloride usage in the lithium processing in Latin America continues to have some traction, although lithium, obviously, right now, you know, pricing-wise is down. But we still see a longer-term view, very positive, very constructive for lithium, and we see a role for calcium chloride with those operations.
Then the other one is chip manufacturing here in the United States, which I'm not sure we fully appreciated until a lot of these chip manufacturers started coming online. They use a very high purity water in their process. They actually have to recalcify or actually remineralize that water before it can be put back, you know, into various applications, and that's a great opportunity for us on our calcium chloride business as well. Just a very well-run business for us right now, and some new market opportunities that we think have some high growth potential.
Tim Moore (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Great, Brady. Yeah, that business is an overlooked gem from investors. But, thanks a lot. I hope that you and Elijio catch up on sleep. You're gonna have an awfully busy year with Saltwerx and Exxon. So thankful. Hopefully, you get rest soon after these trips. Thanks.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Yeah. Thanks, Tim.
Operator (participant)
This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Murphy for any closing remarks.
Brady Murphy (President and CEO)
Well, again, thank you very much. We're very proud and pleased with what we accomplished in 2023. We have a fantastic employee base, management team, and great strategic partnerships that we're very excited about with our current business performing extremely well and a great outlook going forward. So thank you for listening, and thank you for your interest.
Operator (participant)
This concludes our conference call for today. You may now disconnect.