CVR Partners - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered strong results: net sales $168.6M, net income $38.8M ($3.67/unit), EBITDA $67.2M, operating income $46.3M, and a cash distribution of $3.89 per unit. Versus Q2 2024, revenue rose to $168.6M from $132.9M and EBITDA to $67.2M from $53.8M, driven by higher realized pricing and healthy demand.
• Pricing strength was broad: average realized ammonia +14% YoY to $593/ton and UAN +18% YoY to $317/ton, amid tight inventory and increased corn plantings; utilization was 91% given planned and unplanned downtime.
• Q3 2025 outlook guides ammonia utilization 93–98%, direct operating expenses $60–$65M, and capex $20–$25M; management expects seasonal price declines to be narrower than normal given supply tightness.
• Catalysts: higher distribution, favorable pricing backdrop, and progress on growth/reliability projects (control systems, nitrous oxide abatement, feedstock flexibility to natural gas/hydrogen) supporting medium-term capacity and ESG positioning.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Realized pricing strength: ammonia $593/ton (+14% YoY) and UAN $317/ton (+18% YoY), supporting revenue and EBITDA growth despite lower production volumes. CEO: “Supply and demand balances for nitrogen fertilizer continue to be tight and pricing has remained strong”.
• Distribution increased: declared $3.89 per common unit for Q2 2025, underpinned by $41.1M available cash for distribution.
• Strategic execution: progress on reliability and debottlenecking initiatives, DEF loadout expansion, and Coffeyville project to enable feedstock flexibility and ~8% nameplate ammonia capacity expansion; target >95% utilization longer term.

What Went Wrong

• Utilization stepped down: consolidated ammonia utilization 91% (vs 101% in Q1 2025 and 102% in Q2 2024) due to planned control system upgrades at East Dubuque and brief unplanned outages.
• Elevated operating costs: DOE guided $60–$65M for Q3 2025 amid higher natural gas and electricity costs; Q2 DOE was $60.5M.
• Production lower YoY: Q2 gross ammonia 197k tons vs 221k and UAN 321k vs 337k, even as pricing/pricing mix offset to deliver stronger financials.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Meetings, and welcome to the CVR Partners second quarter 2025 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Richard Roberts, Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Richard Roberts (VP of FP and A and Investor Relations)

Thank you, Christine. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation in today's call. With me today are Mark Pytosh, our Chief Executive Officer, Dane Neumann, our Chief Financial Officer, and other members of management. Prior to discussing our 2025 second quarter result, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, as that term is defined under Federal Securities Law. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. We are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings for the Securities and Exchange Commission and in our latest earnings release. As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statement.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except to the extent required by law. This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2025 second quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC for the period. Let me also remind you that we are a variable distribution MLP. We will review our previously established reserves, current cash usage, evaluate future anticipated cash needs, and may reserve amounts for other future cash needs as determined by our General Partner's Board.

As a result, our distributions, if any, will vary from quarter to quarter due to several factors, including but not limited to operational performance, fluctuations in the prices received for finished products, capital expenditures, and cash reserves deemed necessary or appropriate by the Board of Directors of our General Partner. With that said, I'll turn the call over to Mark Pytosh, our Chief Executive Officer. Mark.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Thank you, Richard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's call. To summarize, financial highlights for the second quarter of 2025 include net sales of $169 million, net income of $39 million, EBITDA of $67 million, and the Board of Directors declared a second quarter distribution of $3.89 per common unit, which will be paid on August 18 to unitholders of record at the close of the market on August 11. For the second quarter of 2025, our consolidated ammonia plant utilization was 91%, which was impacted by some planned and unplanned downtime at both facilities during the quarter. Combined ammonia production for the second quarter of 2025 was 197,000 gross tons, of which 54,000 net tons were available for sale, and UAN production was 321,000 tons.

During the quarter, we sold approximately 345,000 tons of UAN at an average price of $317 per ton and approximately 57,000 tons of ammonia at an average price of $593 per ton. Relative to the second quarter of 2024, sales volumes were higher despite lower production volumes, driven by a combination of strong demand in 2025 and a larger shift of product deliveries from 2Q into 1Q last year as a result of favorable weather allowing farmers to plant earlier in the year. UAN and ammonia prices increased 18% and 14% respectively from the prior year period, driven by robust demand on increased corn plantings and tight inventories across the system. Overall, we had another good quarter, and we believe the setup is favorable heading into the second half of the year.

Domestic and global inventories of nitrogen fertilizer remain tight, and that has been supportive of pricing in the summer, which I will discuss further in my closing remarks. I will now turn the call over to Dane to discuss our financial results.

Dane Neumann (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Mark. For the second quarter of 2025, we reported net sales of $169 million and operating income of $46 million. Net income for the quarter was $39 million or $3.67 per common unit, and EBITDA was $67 million. Relative to the second quarter of 2024, the increase in EBITDA was primarily due to a combination of higher UAN and ammonia sales pricing and volumes, along with lower Petco feedstock costs. Direct operating expenses for the second quarter of 2025 were $60 million. Excluding inventory impacts, direct operating expenses increased by approximately $6 million relative to the second quarter of 2024, primarily due to higher natural gas and electricity costs. During the second quarter of 2025, we spent $11 million on capital projects, which was primarily maintenance capital.

We estimate total capital spending for 2025 to be approximately $55 million, of which $40 million-$45 million is expected to be maintenance capital. We anticipate a significant portion of the profit and growth capital spending planned for 2025 will be funded through cash reserves taken over the past two years. We ended the quarter with total liquidity of $162 million, which consisted of $114 million in cash and availability under the ABL facility of $47 million. Within our cash balance of $114 million, we had less than $1 million related to customs prepayments for the future delivery of products. Assessing our cash available for distribution, we generated EBITDA of $67 million and had net cash needs of $26 million for interest costs, maintenance capex, and other reserves.

As a result, there was $41 million of cash available for distribution, and the Board of Directors of our General Partner declared a distribution of $3.89 per common unit. Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2025, we estimate our ammonia utilization rate to be between 93% and 98%, with some downtime planned at East Dubuque for control system upgrades. We expect direct operating expenses, including inventory impact, to be between $60 million and $65 million, and total capital spending to be between $20 million and $25 million. With that, I will turn the call back over to Mark.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Thanks, Dane. In summary, despite some planned and unplanned downtime, we had a good quarter of operations with ammonia utilization at 91%. Demand for nitrogen fertilizer remained solid through the end of the planting season, and we are seeing the strength in demand continue for the second half of the year with favorable pricing. The spring planting season went well, and demand for nitrogen was strong. The USDA estimates that 95.2 million acres of corn and 83.4 million acres of soybeans were planted in spring 2025, a 4% increase for corn and a 3% decrease for soybeans compared to 2024. Yield estimates are 181 bushels per acre for corn and 52.5 bushels per acre for soybeans. Based on these planting and corn yield estimates, the USDA is projecting inventory carryout levels for 2026 of approximately 10% for corn and 7% for soybeans, which are below the 10-year averages.

Grain prices have softened some recently, driven primarily by expectations of large crop production in Brazil and North America in 2025 and potential trade disputes where the purchase of grains may be used as a negotiating tool when reaching trade agreements. December corn prices are approximately $4.15 per bushel, and November soybeans are approximately $10 per bushel. Geopolitical conflicts are continuing to impact the nitrogen fertilizer industry. In the second quarter, Israel attacked Iran and caused a natural gas disruption in the flaring of ammonia inventories in Iran, along with a disruption in natural gas flow to Egypt for an extended period of time. Fertilizer producers in both countries shut in capacity during that time, and they've only recently begun to ramp up production again. Additionally, Ukraine damaged two nitrogen fertilizer plants in Russia, which reduced product available for export.

It is currently unclear when these two plants will resume full production. In total, nearly 20% of global urea export capacity was offline for a period of time in the quarter, while India has been seeking to import urea for its planting season. All of these factors contributed to a tighter global supply-demand balance for nitrogen fertilizers at the end of the planting season, and the normal seasonal price declines for summer fill and fall prepay UAN and ammonia have been much narrower this year. In addition to the supply tightness across the fertilizer market, the potential for tariffs on Russian fertilizer exports represents another wild card that could have significant impacts on pricing in the near term. Natural gas prices in Europe have declined slightly since our last earnings call, but remain around $11 per MMBtu currently, while U.S. prices continue to range between $3 and $4 per MMBtu.

Europe has refilled its natural gas inventories at a slower rate than expected, and there are concerns about the ability to replenish the inventory to targeted levels before winter of 2025. The cost to produce ammonia in Europe has remained durably at the high end of the global cost curve, and production remains below historical levels, which has created opportunities for U.S. Gulf Coast producers to export ammonia to Europe for upgrade. We continue to believe Europe faces structural natural gas supply challenges that will likely remain in effect through 2026. At our Coffeyville facility, we're working on a detailed design and construction plan to utilize natural gas and additional hydrogen from the adjacent Coffeyville refinery as alternative feedstocks to third-party Petco, in addition to expanding nameplate ammonia capacity by approximately 8%. We expect to begin implementing the project this fall.

To remind everyone, this project would give us the ability to choose the optimal feedstock mix between natural gas and Petco, and this would make Coffeyville the only nitrogen fertilizer plant in the U.S. with that feedstock flexibility. We also continue to execute certain debottlenecking projects at both plants that are expected to improve reliability and production rates, including the expansion of our DEF production and loadout capacity. The goal of these projects is to support our target of operating our plants at utilization rates above 95% of nameplate capacity, excluding the impact of turnaround. We have water quality upgrade projects at both plants underway, and the electricity reliability upgrade project at Coffeyville is also progressing in partnership with the city.

During the upcoming fall turnaround at Coffeyville, we plan to install a nitrous oxide abatement unit, after which we will have nitrous oxide abatement units on all four of our nitric acid plants. This would further our strategy of reducing the carbon footprint of our operations, and we are continuing our efforts to have Coffeyville certified as the low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer production facility. The funds needed for the 2025 projects are coming from the reserves taken over the last two years, and the board elected to continue reserving capital in the second quarter. While the board looks at reserves every quarter, I would expect them to continue to elect to reserve some capital, and we anticipate holding higher levels of cash related to these projects in the near term as we ramp up execution and spending, which we expect will take place over the next two to three years.

We have a planned 30-day turnaround at our Coffeyville facility starting in early October. In addition to the normal open cleaning and inspect of many of our units, we will be replacing the ammonia converter internals and installing the nitrous oxide abatement unit. The expense for the turnaround is expected to be approximately $15 million, and we have the cash to fund the turnaround expenses in reserves. The second quarter continued to demonstrate the benefits of focusing on safety, reliability, and performance. In the quarter, we executed on all the critical elements of our business plan, which include safely and reliably operating our plants with a keen focus on the health and safety of our employees, contractors, and communities, certainly managing costs, being judicious with capital, maximizing our marketing and logistics capabilities, and targeting opportunities to reduce our carbon footprint.

Yesterday, our parent company, CVR Energy, announced that its CEO, David Lamp, would be retiring at year end. As part of the transition, I have agreed to take on his role starting on January 1, 2026, in addition to my role as CEO of CVR Partners. I will continue to focus on having our great team execute CVR Partners' mission to deliver safe, reliable operations and generate attractive unitholder returns. We aren't going to lose focus. In closing, I'd like to thank our employees for their safe execution during a few brief outages, achieving 91% ammonia utilization and the solid delivery on our marketing and logistics plans, resulting in a distribution of $3.89 per common unit for the second quarter. With that, we are ready to answer any questions. Christine?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from a line of Rob McGuire with Granite Research. Please proceed with your question.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, Mark, Dane, and Richard.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Morning, Rob.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, just a couple of questions on UAN. Can you just comment on the timing of your UAN summer fill program? You know what your thoughts are in terms of getting out there, and are you seeing enough strength to hold pricing without needing to offer discounts?

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Rob, we have not yet completed the summer UAN fill. We have completed the summer fill and fall prepay for ammonia, but the season was extended into July. There was a lot of demand for UAN at the end of the season, so that went into July, and inventories are very low. The fill season got pushed back. We do expect it in the next couple of weeks. The prices typically, and you've been through this before, Rob, but typically would see a pretty good, maybe a 25% or 30% decline in price from the in-season price to the summer fill. That percentage decline is going to be a lot less this year because of the tightness in the supply demand. It's not going to be at season prices, but it won't be at the big discount that it typically is.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. I appreciate you getting me on track there. Is it safe to assume that the third quarter UAN pricing, I mean, it's going to drop, it sounds like, at some point, given the seasonality you just discussed? I guess, do you have an outlook on ammonia pricing through the fall application, and would you be open to sharing that?

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

What I would tell you is that the fall pricing was, I'd say, relatively similar to the spring pricing. It depends on the geography and the look, but we expect the fall to look a lot like the spring. Typically, we would expect that to be a pretty good discount from the spring, but the ammonia will be priced around where the spring price was for fall.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. I appreciate that. Just switching gears here, direct operating costs increased to $60.5 million in the second quarter, up from $54.5 million in the first quarter. The gross ammonia production was down modestly. Was there higher than usual maintenance and repair costs in the second quarter number, and just sort of related to the new control systems installed at East Dubuque? Is there any background you can let me know along those lines?

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Yeah, a couple of factors there. We did have a bunch of repairs go through in the quarter with the outages that we had, and we did draw on the inventory. That would draw out more DOE because we sort of effectively made it in the first quarter and shipped it in the second quarter. That would tend to lift the DOE there.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. You guided the third quarter direct operating costs to $60 million-$60.5 million. Can you give me an idea of what the breakdown there is? I think Dane might have talked about that, but just with regards to maintenance versus gross CapEx.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Oh, that's for the year.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

For the year.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Okay. I'll let Dane answer. You're saying CapEx or DOE?

Dane Neumann (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, I think we crossed both there. Which one are we looking at?

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

The direct operating expenses versus guidance was $60 million to $65 million, I thought.

Dane Neumann (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. As it relates to the DOE, we're looking at $60million-$65 million. We're expecting to continue to see the elevated natural gas and electricity costs that we saw in the second quarter. In addition, we have the work on the Clark controls. There'll be some expense associated with that as well. Outside of that, nothing really abnormal that we would expect in our OpEx for the third quarter.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Yeah. One of the things that we've seen this year, Rob, in the summer in particular, is elevated electricity pricing. We haven't had any, you know, brownouts or blackouts, but the pricing that we're seeing come through at peak demand periods has been higher this year than last year. That's lifted up our DOE a bit. Gas is higher year-over-year. That'll start to normalize in the second half, but it was higher in the first half. All of those are kind of, they're all little pieces that add up to the total.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks. I appreciate that. With regards to the unplanned downtime, is everything okay now, or is that part of your expectation to utilization running a little lower? I know you're going into turnaround as well.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Yeah. The planned part was okay. We, and we had said on the last call, we're upgrading our control system for our compressors at our East Dubuque facility, and it requires us to take an outage on the compressor. That reduces our rate for a period of time until the control system is installed and then tuned up and brought into operation. The unplanned, we had a couple of outages, and we dealt with those issues and don't expect that to recur. There's always going to be unplanned outages and events. We've been pretty good about either avoiding them or dealing with them and keeping them as short as possible. We just had several factors that happened at Coffeyville and East Dubuque in the quarter. We lost a few days in both plants.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. I appreciate that. By the way, Mark, congratulations on being named the incoming CEO of CVR Energy as well. I guess you're going to do both roles, but do you envision at some point naming a new head to CVR Partners?

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

We're in the first 24 hours, so I don't want to try to speculate on the go-forward there. CVR Partners is an important part of the family and a valuable asset for CVR Energy. I intend to continue to manage and follow it closely and do the best that we can to maximize returns there. Not planning on giving that up in the short run. We have a great team in place, and I can count on them. I'm going to, at least initially, start with both roles. You're not getting rid of me here, Rob.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

Appreciate that. We're glad you're there. With regards to, do you have a view on industry consolidation at this point with the new administration? Do you think they're a smidge more indulgent towards consolidation?

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Obviously, this administration seems to look more favorably upon consolidation in the context of lowering cost and ultimately lowering costs out to consumers. I've always felt like there probably was some more consolidation to occur in the nitrogen fertilizer space. It is a global business, and some of the geopolitical events, I think, are causing people to reconsider where they own assets, where they're a producer. It wouldn't surprise me to see more consolidation down the road. The one thing that we are watching, which has obviously emerged here in the last week, is the potential merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. We think that may very well open up some new lanes for us that we're not currently in. I'm not sure there'll be another merger consideration there, like in the BN and CSX. I think that's a sign of kind of where we are.

It could very well spill into the fertilizer space in terms of more consolidation. You heard my comments. The U.S. has become an exporter to Europe for ammonia. They're keeping their upgrade plants up and running, but they're taking more ammonia from the U.S. I think production capacity in the United States is more valuable because we have cheap feedstock. We have good logistics, and now with a lot of the carbon capture going on, we're increasingly lower carbon intensity. I think the U.S. could be a durable exporter of fertilizer, which would make production assets more valuable in the U.S.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

That's great. One last question. With regards to your brownfield reliability redundancy projects, could you give us an idea of where your capacity is today and what those projects will add in terms of volume?

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Sure. What I said in the remarks on Coffeyville, we think we can get somewhere in the ballpark of about 100 tons a day of ammonia production out of the projects that we've been talking about for the last few quarters. At East Dubuque, we're looking at potential projects that might add 5%+ to our capacity there. If you look at what it costs to build new capacity, we're getting a bargain price for these brownfield projects where we're adding capacity for a fraction of what it would cost to build actual new production capacity. They're great investments for us because it's a lot cheaper to build brownfield than it is to try to build a new one.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

That makes sense. Can you just confirm for me, are all those projects maintenance or growth CapEx or a mix?

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Those are all in the growth, what Dane described as the growth capex that are being reserved. That doesn't, you know, we've been reserving against that for a period of time, and that doesn't really come out of the, you know, the maintenance side of the capital budget. If you kind of think about reliability, we're spending our ongoing maintenance dollars to maintain our reliability and address issues, plus address some what I call bigger bottleneck issues or bigger reliability single point of failures at the two plants. Those are the dollars that are being reserved in the growth capital. We're going to get production capacity for that. It's not, you know, it's a combination of reliability plus, which means, you know, higher, if we operate at higher nameplate capacity, we're going to have more production, plus we're going to increase the nameplate.

Ideally, what we would do is a higher percentage of a higher nameplate. That's the goal.

Rob McGuire (Equity Research Analyst)

That's great. Thank you so much for all your time and answering my questions.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

Okay. Thank you, Rob.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

Mark Pytosh (President and CEO)

I want to thank everybody for being on the call today, and we look forward to discussing our third quarter results in October, early November. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.