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Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Uber delivered its strongest quarter ever: Gross Bookings rose 18% YoY to $44.2B, Revenue grew 20% YoY to $12.0B, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 44% YoY to $1.8B; diluted EPS was $3.21, aided by a $6.4B tax valuation release and $556M net unrealized investment gains .
  • Mobility and Delivery both accelerated, with Mobility revenue up 25% YoY to $6.9B and Delivery revenue up 21% YoY to $3.8B; MAPCs reached 171M and Trips hit 3.07B in Q4 .
  • Q1 2025 guidance: Gross Bookings (constant currency) +17% to +21%, reported Gross Bookings $42.0–$43.5B given FX headwinds, and Adjusted EBITDA $1.79–$1.89B (+30% to +37% YoY) .
  • Management highlighted accelerating product innovation, Uber One membership growth to 30M, and a long-term AV commercialization timeline where Uber expects to be the indispensable go-to-market partner; an ASR for $1.5B was announced in Jan-2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record quarter across MAPCs, Trips, and Gross Bookings; Growth beat the high end of guidance on a constant currency basis; Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 4.2% of Gross Bookings (vs 3.4% in Q4’23) .
  • Mobility revenue up 25% YoY to $6.9B and Delivery revenue up 21% YoY to $3.8B with Delivery EBITDA up 53% YoY; membership reached 30M and multi-product usage hit an all-time high (37%) .
  • CFO: exceeded three-year outlook on Gross Bookings, Adjusted EBITDA, and FCF; reiterated belief shares remain undervalued and intent to be “active and opportunistic” buyers .

Selected quotes:

  • CEO: “Uber ended 2024 with our strongest quarter ever...” and “...we enter 2025 with clear momentum.”
  • CFO: “...closed out 2024 exceeding our three-year outlook... plan to be active and opportunistic buyers of our stock.”

What Went Wrong

  • Freight remained pressured: revenue flat YoY and down 3% QoQ, with an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $22M and margin of (1.7%) .
  • FX headwinds rising into Q1’25: management expects ~5.5ppt top-line headwind (vs ~3ppt in Q4), notably across Latin America (Argentina, Mexico, Brazil) .
  • Insurance costs remain a structural headwind (though moderating): management expects U.S. Mobility insurance costs high-single digits per trip in 2025, still weighing on margins despite tech and regulatory initiatives .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L and Cash Flow (Quarterly)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$10.70 $11.19 $11.96
Income from Operations ($USD Billions)$0.80 $1.06 $0.77
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.57 $1.69 $1.84
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (% of GB)3.9% 4.1% 4.2%
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.47 $1.20 $3.21
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)$1.72 $2.11 $1.71

Segment Breakdown (Quarterly)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Mobility Revenue ($USD Billions)$6.13 $6.41 $6.91
Delivery Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.29 $3.47 $3.77
Freight Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.27 $1.31 $1.28
Mobility Gross Bookings ($USD Billions)$20.55 $21.00 $22.80
Delivery Gross Bookings ($USD Billions)$18.13 $18.66 $20.13
Freight Gross Bookings ($USD Billions)$1.27 $1.31 $1.27

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
MAPCs (Millions)156 161 171
Trips (Millions)2,765 2,868 3,068
Monthly Trips per MAPC5.9 5.9 6.0

Margins

MarginQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Mobility Revenue Margin (%)29.8% 30.5% 30.3%
Delivery Revenue Margin (%)18.2% 18.6% 18.7%

Q4 2024 vs Prior Year (YoY)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$9.94 $11.96
Income from Operations ($USD Billions)$0.65 $0.77
Net Income Attributable ($USD Billions)$1.43 $6.88
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.28 $1.84
Gross Bookings ($USD Billions)$37.58 $44.20
MAPCs (Millions)150 171
Trips (Millions)2,601 3,068

Notes: Q4 net income includes a $6.4B tax valuation release and $556M net unrealized investment gains .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Gross Bookings ($USD Billions)Q4 2024$42.75–$44.25 Delivered $44.20 Beat near high end
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)Q4 2024$1.78–$1.88 Delivered $1.84 In range
Gross Bookings (cc YoY growth)Q1 2025N/A+17% to +21% New
Reported Gross Bookings ($USD Billions)Q1 2025N/A$42.0–$43.5 (incl. ~5.5ppt FX headwind) New
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)Q1 2025N/A$1.79–$1.89 (+30% to +37% YoY) New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Autonomous Vehicles (AV)Uber as indispensable AV partner; BYD EV/AV strategic link Waymo expansion to Austin & Atlanta; multi-partner approach Commercialization will take “significantly longer”; Uber investing in fleet ops, depots, and partnerships; hybrid network advantage Increased strategic clarity; long runway
Insurance CostsStructurally high but moderating; tech and policy work to bend curve CPI moderating; pass-through both ways; operational initiatives Expect high-single-digit per-trip insurance costs in 2025; tech dashboards and captive insurer leverage Easing but still a headwind
Membership (Uber One)>50% of Delivery GB; student launch; global expansion 25M members; student expansion; ad pilots 30M members (+60% YoY); multiproduct use at 37% Strong growth; deeper engagement
Less-Dense GeographiesInitial U.S. Delivery focus expanding globally Explicit focus; higher growth in sparser areas; taxi adds Continued investment to extend supply/demand; suburban wait-time tolerance Sustained strategic push
FX Headwinds~4ppt headwind in Q3 outlook ~2ppt headwind in Q4 outlook ~5.5ppt headwind expected in Q1’25 (notably LatAm) Worsening into Q1’25
AdvertisingRun-rate >$1B; Journey Ads programmatic expansion ~80% growth; mobility JourneyTV expansion Continued monetization; sponsored listings vs merchant-funded offers mix Scaling and diversifying
FreightAV trucking partnerships; platform features Margins pressured; slight YoY improvement Revenue flat YoY; EBITDA loss (22M) Still cyclical headwinds
Regulatory/LegalMassachusetts IC+ framework discussions Broader focus on insurance reforms; multiple states Continued state-level insurance reform efforts Gradual progress

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Gross bookings growth on a constant currency basis beat even our own expectations... powered by strong product innovation... multiproduct use to an all-time high of 37%...” .
  • CFO: “...exceeding our three-year outlook for Gross Bookings, Adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow... plan to be active and opportunistic buyers of our stock.” .
  • CEO on AV: commercialization will take “significantly longer,” and Uber will be the “indispensable go-to-market partner” providing demand and fleet operations; Austin/Atlanta Waymo launches next month .
  • CFO on FX: expects ~5.5ppt headwind in Q1 with Latin America depreciation; natural hedge on local costs, will absorb FX in profit line .

Q&A Highlights

  • AV strategy and economics: Uber can materially increase AV fleet utilization vs first-party networks; will invest aggressively in AV supply (fleet, depots) without impacting the three-year framework; hybrid human+AV network best handles peaks/valleys .
  • Insurance outlook: U.S. Mobility insurance per-trip expected high-single digits in 2025; tech telemetry dashboards, advantage mode incentives, captive insurer leverage, and state reform efforts under way .
  • FX dynamics: larger Q1 headwind (~5.5ppt) with notable LatAm currency pressure; Uber prices and pays in local currencies, limiting profit exposure .
  • Affordability and pricing: mix of premium products funding lower-cost offerings (Share/Shuttle/taxi); membership reduces price, supporting demand even as insurance costs rose .
  • Growth in less-dense areas and Delivery frequency: supply investments, incentives, selection and quality improvements to drive audience and frequency; Delivery GBs accelerated QoQ .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus from S&P Global for Q4 2024 and forward quarters was unavailable via our data interface at the time of analysis due to an S&P API limit error; as a result, direct comparisons vs consensus are not provided in this report. Values were intended to be retrieved from S&P Global but could not be accessed due to a “Daily Request Limit... Exceeded” error. We anchor to management guidance and reported results instead [GetEstimates error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Profitability quality improved: Adjusted EBITDA up 44% YoY and margin expanded to 4.2% of GB, with Mobility EBITDA margin at 7.8% of GB despite higher insurance costs; Delivery EBITDA up 53% YoY, benefiting from ads and scale .
  • Demand momentum: MAPCs and Trips accelerated; Uber One membership reached 30M and multiproduct usage at 37%—key drivers of frequency and retention .
  • AV narrative maturing: commercialization is multi-year; Uber’s hybrid network and fleet ops capability position it as the partner of choice; near-term launches in Austin/Atlanta with Waymo could be proof points .
  • Q1 2025 setup: strong EBITDA growth guided (+30% to +37% YoY) alongside heavier FX headwinds (~5.5ppt); watch LatAm currencies and FX translation on reported GBs .
  • Freight remains cyclical: flat revenue and negative EBITDA—expect continued operational discipline; not a core growth engine near-term .
  • Capital returns: ASR for $1.5B launched in Jan-2025; debt reduced by $2.0B in Q4—enhancing balance sheet and signaling confidence in intrinsic value .
  • Tactical implications: near-term focus on FX sensitivity and insurance normalization; medium-term thesis anchored on membership-driven engagement, ads monetization, and structural advantages in AV deployment .