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    Uber Technologies Inc (UBER)

    Business Description

    Uber Technologies, Inc. operates as a technology platform that connects consumers with independent providers of ride services and delivery services . The company offers a range of services through its three main segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight . Uber's offerings include ridesharing services, meal and item delivery, and logistics services .

    1. Mobility - Connects consumers with drivers for ridesharing services using various vehicles, including cars, auto rickshaws, and taxis. Also involves activities related to financial partnerships and advertising .
    2. Delivery - Enables consumers to order meals and other items from local restaurants and stores for pickup or delivery. Includes Grocery & Retail services, covering grocery, alcohol, and convenience store deliveries, along with advertising services .
    3. Freight - Connects carriers with shippers, offering upfront pricing and logistics services .

    Q3 2024 Summary

    Initial Price$72.20July 1, 2024
    Final Price$74.24October 1, 2024
    Price Change$2.04
    % Change+2.83%

    What went well

    • Uber delivered a record quarterly GAAP operating profit of over $1 billion, with gross bookings up 20% year-over-year in constant currency, indicating strong profitable growth and increasing financial leverage.
    • The company's advertising business grew nearly 80% year-over-year, with significant potential for further growth, particularly in areas like sponsored listings for groceries and mobility advertising, which can increase margins and driver earnings.
    • Expansion into less dense markets presents a significant growth opportunity in both Mobility and Delivery, expected to be a major tailwind for Uber's core business over the next 2 to 3 years and beyond.

    What went wrong

    • Rising insurance costs in the U.S. are leading to fare increases and slowing transaction growth in Uber's Mobility segment. Dara Khosrowshahi stated that as they pass on increased insurance costs to consumers, especially in high-cost states like New Jersey and California, they observe a typical elasticity where "as price goes up, the transaction growth slows down a bit."
    • Mobility gross bookings growth has decelerated to 24%, down 3 percentage points from the previous quarter. This slowdown raised questions from analysts about any unusual factors impacting the business or surprises in the quarter.
    • Autonomous vehicle services, such as those offered by Waymo in San Francisco, are capturing market share in certain areas, achieving "category position in the high single digits or low double digits," potentially posing a competitive threat to Uber's core Mobility business.

    Q&A Summary

    1. U.S. Mobility Bookings and Insurance Costs
      Q: How are U.S. mobility bookings trending, and what impacts are insurance costs having?
      A: U.S. mobility continues to grow robustly, remaining Uber's largest market with less than 50% of gross bookings but over 50% of profitability. However, increased commercial insurance costs in states like New Jersey and California have led to higher fares, causing a typical one-to-one elasticity where transaction growth slows as prices rise. Weekday growth is outpacing weekends, with strong performance in Uber For Business, which is up over 50%, and no signs of consumers trading down.

    2. Autonomous Vehicles and Vaymo Partnership
      Q: What is Uber's approach to autonomous vehicles, particularly with Vaymo?
      A: Uber is expanding its autonomous vehicle partnerships, notably with Vaymo, focusing on deep integration in select cities like Austin and Atlanta. While initial volumes in Phoenix are modest, the experience has been positive, and the real test will be the significant expansion next year with Vaymos in the hundreds in those markets. Uber believes focused investment in key cities yields better returns than spreading thinly across many.

    3. Advertising Business Growth
      Q: How is Uber's advertising business performing and what is its outlook?
      A: Uber's advertising business is growing rapidly, aiming to exceed 2% of gross bookings in Delivery, currently in the mid-1% range. The SMB CPC business is expanding strongly, enterprise penetration is increasing, and they are developing sponsored listing products for groceries. Mobility advertising is also promising, with click-through rates 2–3 times industry averages, and new partnerships like T-Mobile to bring Journey TV to 50,000 vehicles.

    4. Delivery Growth and Uber One Membership
      Q: What's driving growth in Delivery and how is Uber One membership contributing?
      A: Delivery gross bookings grew 17%, driven by both new audience acquisition and increased frequency. The main Uber Eats business is bringing new users, significantly assisted by cross-promotion from Mobility, with one-third of new audience coming from Mobility. Focus on customer experience and the Uber One membership program, which now has 25 million members up 70% year-over-year, is enhancing frequency, as members spend 3 times more than non-members.

    5. Capital Allocation and M&A Strategy
      Q: How does Uber approach capital allocation and decisions on partnerships vs. acquisitions?
      A: Uber prioritizes responsible organic investments aligned with growth strategy and focused on free cash flow. With investment-grade status achieved, they are returning excess capital to shareholders, utilizing share buybacks as the primary vehicle. M&A is selectively evaluated with a high bar, requiring both strategic value and financial accretion, as seen in the Foodpanda acquisition. They prefer to build organically but will consider acquisitions if they can add significant value.

    6. Impact of Insurance Cost Increases
      Q: Are rising insurance costs primarily a U.S. issue, and how is Uber managing this?
      A: Rising insurance costs are primarily a U.S. phenomenon, with motor vehicle insurance CPI up 16% year-over-year in September. Uber expects these costs to continue increasing but at a lower rate. Their principle is to pass along insurance cost changes to riders, and they are working to reduce costs through safety initiatives and risk management programs.

    7. Consumer Demand and Macro Outlook
      Q: How is the broader consumer landscape affecting Uber's business?
      A: Uber is seeing strong consumer demand, with audience and frequency at all-time highs and global consumer retention up in both Mobility and Delivery. There are no signs of consumers trading down, and Uber For Business is experiencing strong growth with 50% constant currency growth. The company remains optimistic about the consumer environment.

    8. Opportunity in Less Dense Markets
      Q: How is Uber approaching less dense markets for growth?
      A: Uber sees significant opportunity in less dense areas, starting with Delivery where non-core cities represent 60–70% of the U.S. market. They are investing in improving selection and building liquidity in these areas, expecting it to be a tailwind for growth over the next 2 to 3 years.

    9. Autonomous Fleet Operations and San Francisco Insights
      Q: How is Uber leveraging its fleet operations for AVs, and what's the impact in San Francisco?
      A: Uber is extending its fleet operations expertise to autonomous vehicles to drive efficiencies for AV tech providers. In San Francisco, they see Vaymo having a category position in the high single digits to low double digits where they operate, but are not seeing significant effects on their own consumer base.

    10. Uber Direct and Partnerships
      Q: What's Uber's strategy for Uber Direct and partnerships like the one with Darden?
      A: Uber continues to invest aggressively in Uber Direct, expanding engineering resources and deepening capabilities. Some partnerships are exclusive while others are not; it depends on the specific deal. Uber's global reach is a significant benefit to partners, allowing integration across multiple markets.

    Revenue by Segment - in Millions of USDQ1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019FY 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021FY 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022FY 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023FY 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
    Mobility4,3304,8945,0715,53719,8325,6336,1346,409
    Delivery3,0933,0572,9353,11912,2043,2143,2933,470
    Freight1,4001,2791,2861,285,2451,2841,2731,309
    ATG and Other Technology Programs--------
    Other Bets--------
    All Other--------
    Total Revenue8,8239,2309,2929,93637,28110,13110,70011,188
    Revenue by Geography - in Millions of USDQ1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019FY 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021FY 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022FY 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023FY 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
    United States and Canada5,1325,1294,9405,23520,4365,4735,8256,006
    - United States----18,620---
    Latin America5656276426782,512710679679
    Europe, Middle East, Africa2,0942,4122,5602,8389,9042,7562,9873,196
    - United Kingdom----6,522---
    Asia Pacific1,0321,0621,1501,1854,4291,1921,2091,307
    All other countries----12,139---
    Total Revenue8,8239,2309,2929,93637,28110,13110,70011,188

    Executive Team

    NamePositionStart DateShort Bio
    Dara KhosrowshahiChief Executive Officer and DirectorSeptember 2017Dara Khosrowshahi has served as the CEO and a member of the Board of Directors of Uber since September 2017. He was previously the President and CEO of Expedia Group, Inc. from 2005 to 2017. He has held senior management roles at IAC/InterActiveCorp and serves on the boards of Aurora Innovation, Inc., Expedia Group, Inc., and Grab Holdings Ltd .
    Prashanth Mahendra-RajahChief Financial OfficerNovember 2023Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah has been the CFO of Uber since November 2023. He was previously the EVP, Finance and CFO of Analog Devices, Inc. from June 2022 to October 2023, and CFO at WABCO Holdings Inc. from June 2014 to September 2017. He has held financial leadership roles at Applied Materials, Visa Inc., and United Technologies Corporation .
    Jill HazelbakerSenior Vice President, Marketing and Public AffairsJune 2019Jill Hazelbaker has been Uber's SVP, Marketing and Public Affairs since June 2019. She was previously SVP, Communications and Public Policy from 2017 to 2019, and VP, Communications and Public Policy from 2015 to 2017. Before Uber, she held roles at Snap Inc. and Google, and worked on political campaigns .
    Nikki KrishnamurthySenior Vice President and Chief People OfficerOctober 2018Nikki Krishnamurthy has been the Chief People Officer at Uber since October 2018. She was previously the Chief People Officer at Expedia from 2016 to 2018, and held various HR leadership roles at Expedia from 2009 to 2016. Earlier, she worked as a Principal HR Consultant for Washington Mutual Card Services .
    Tony WestSenior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate SecretaryNovember 2017Tony West has been Uber's SVP, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary since November 2017. He was previously EVP, Government Affairs, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary at PepsiCo Inc. from 2014 to 2017, and served in various roles at the U.S. Department of Justice. He was also a partner at Morrison & Foerster LLP .

    Questions to Ask Management

    1. Given the significant increase in commercial insurance costs in the U.S. over the past two years, leading to higher prices and a slowdown in transaction growth due to consumer elasticity, how do you plan to mitigate these costs on your mobility business while maintaining growth and profitability?

    2. With the expansion of autonomous vehicle partnerships, particularly with Waymo in Phoenix and upcoming cities like Austin and Atlanta, how do you foresee the integration of AVs affecting your existing driver network, and what measures are you taking to ensure this transition doesn't negatively impact driver earnings and the overall supply-demand balance?

    3. You mentioned a disciplined approach to capital allocation with a high bar for M&A, as seen with the Foodpanda acquisition in Taiwan. How do you determine when an acquisition provides enough strategic and financial value versus pursuing partnerships, and could this cautious stance limit opportunities for growth in key markets or verticals?

    4. As you expand into less dense markets, which you noted could have been recognized earlier, what specific challenges do you anticipate in building both supply and demand in these areas, and how will you address potential operational complexities to ensure profitability outside major cities?

    5. Your advertising business has shown robust growth, particularly in delivery, but as you aim to increase ad loads, how do you balance monetization efforts with maintaining a high-quality user experience, and what risks do you foresee in scaling ads without impacting customer satisfaction and retention?

    Share Repurchase Program

    Program DetailsProgram 1
    Approval DateFebruary 2024
    End Date/DurationN/A
    Total additional amount$7.0 billion
    Remaining authorization amount$6.3 billion
    DetailsReturn capital to shareholders, aiming for a durable reduction in share count by 2025

    Past Guidance

    Q3 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q3 2024
    • Guided Period: Q4 2024
    • Guidance:
      • Gross Bookings Growth: Expected to grow at a rate similar to Q3, which was 20% on a constant currency basis. Mobility expected to grow in the low 20% range on a constant currency basis .
      • EBITDA Margin: Expected to be flattish sequentially in Q4 .
      • Trip Activity: Expected to be similar to Q3, with a little bit less benefit from pricing .

    Q2 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q2 2024
    • Guided Period: Q3 2024
    • Guidance:
      • Gross Bookings Growth: Expected to deliver another quarter of over 20% year-on-year growth on a constant currency basis .
      • Mobility Gross Bookings Growth: Expected in the mid-20s range on a constant currency basis .
      • Mobility Adjusted EBITDA Margins: Expected to be down slightly quarter-over-quarter due to resumed investments .

    Q1 2024 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q1 2024
    • Guided Period: Q2 2024
    • Guidance:
      • Gross Bookings Growth: Expected to grow over 20% year-on-year on a constant currency basis. Mobility expected to grow in the mid-20s range despite a 5 percentage point headwind from foreign exchange .
      • Adjusted EBITDA Margins: Expected to be down slightly quarter-over-quarter due to resumed investments .
      • Audience and Frequency Growth: Audience growth expected around 15% and frequency growth around 6% .

    Q4 2023 Earnings Call

    • Issued Period: Q4 2023
    • Guided Period: Q1 2024
    • Guidance:
      • The documents do not provide specific guidance metrics for Q4 2023. However, it is mentioned that Uber's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 exceeded their outlook, and they are starting 2024 with "tremendous momentum and reliable execution" . For more detailed guidance metrics, the specific earnings release or investor presentation would need to be consulted.

    Competitors

    Competitors mentioned in the company's latest 10K filing.

    • Lyft - Competes in ridesharing for Drivers and riders .
    • Ola - Competes in ridesharing for Drivers and riders .
    • Didi - Competes in ridesharing for Drivers and riders .
    • Grab - Competes in ridesharing for Drivers and riders .
    • Bolt - Competes in ridesharing for Drivers and riders .
    • DoorDash - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • Deliveroo - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • Glovo - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • Instacart - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • Gopuff - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • Rappi - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • iFood - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • Delivery Hero - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • Just Eat Takeaway - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • Amazon - Competes in the meal, grocery, and other delivery space .
    • C.H. Robinson - Competes in freight brokerage and managed transportation .
    • Total Quality Logistics - Competes in freight brokerage and managed transportation .
    • XPO Logistics - Competes in freight brokerage and managed transportation .
    • Echo Global Logistics - Competes in freight brokerage and managed transportation .
    • Coyote - Competes in freight brokerage and managed transportation .
    • Transfix - Competes in freight brokerage and managed transportation .
    • DHL - Competes in freight brokerage and managed transportation .
    • NEXT Trucking - Competes in freight brokerage and managed transportation .