Frontier Group - Q2 2023
August 1, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Frontier Group Holdings Q2 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentations, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question at that time, please press star one one on your telephone. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to your host, Mr. David Erdman, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
David Erdman (Senior Director of Investor Relations)
Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our Q2 2023 earnings call. Today's speakers will be Barry Biffle, President and CEO; Jimmy Dempsey, EVP and CFO; Daniel Shurz, Senior Vice President, Commercial. Each will deliver brief prepared remarks. Then we'll get to your questions. First, let me quickly review the customary safe harbor provisions. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those predicted in these forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning risk factors, which could cause such differences, are outlined in the announcement we published earlier, along with reports we file with the SEC. We will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to the nearest comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of the earnings announcement. I'll give the floor to Barry to begin his prepared remarks. Barry?
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Thank you, David, good afternoon, everyone. Despite challenging operational conditions, we generated strong Q2 results with a pre-tax margin of 9.1%, our highest post-pandemic margin on an industry-leading capacity growth of 23% compared to the prior year quarter. Our continued focus on cost management helped drive a beat on our non-fuel operating expense. Our total cost structure is significantly lower than the industry average, generating an advantage of more than $70 per passenger today. Our cost structure is a key element in underpinning our growth strategy, and I'm proud the organization has continued to ensure we remain the leader among our peers. Ancillary revenue continued its strong performance during the Q2, achieving $80 per passenger, $5 higher than the comparable quarter last year.
We expect our industry-leading ancillary platform to continue to provide us with pricing flexibility to tailor our suite of products and services to our customers' needs. It also enables us to maintain low fares and enhance engagement and loyalty with our brand. Our GoWild! All-You-Can-Fly Pass is a great example. Since a substantial number of our pass holders do not have prior travel history with Frontier, we've had the opportunity to expand brand awareness and preference, along with driving incremental revenues as these customers engage with our other loyalty platforms, such as Discount Den, our co-branding credit card as well. It's a key part of our strategy to increase the contribution from loyalty and subscription-related products. As we look to the Q3, we expect a moderation in fares, largely due to an increase in competing long-haul international travel flows.
To better understand this phenomena, we recently surveyed our Frontier customers. The survey found that 5% or more of our customers have traveled or plan to travel to Europe versus last year. We estimate this environment to be a 3-point temporary headwind on a pre-tax margin basis. Encouragingly, our survey also revealed over 90% plan to travel the same or more, with over half planning to travel more on a go-forward basis, giving us the confidence that once the balance shifts back to domestic, we believe RASM will normalize. Turning to the operational environment, the challenging conditions experienced in June continue to cause an historically elevated level of cancellations. Weather across the United States, in particular in Florida, has produced record air traffic controlled delay programs, resulting in the cancellation of over 3% of our flights in July.
We are incorporating ATC constraints into our network design going forward. We expect this environment to impact our Q3 pre-tax margin by approximately three points. Accordingly, we anticipate our Q3 adjusted pre-tax margin to be 4% to 7%. We have the lowest cost structure of any carrier in the United States. We are focused on sustaining that advantage with ongoing induction of the high-gauge, fuel-efficient A321neo aircraft and by levraging our high utilization capabilities to drive low fares and stimulate demand. With that, I'll hand the call over to Daniel for a commercial update.
Daniel Shurz (SVP of Commercial)
Thank you, Barry. Good afternoon, everyone. Total operating revenue for the Q2 of 2023 was $967 million, more than 6% higher than the prior year quarter. RASM was down 14%, 10% on a stage-adjusted basis, from a strong prior year quarter on capacity growth of 23% over the same period and an 8% increase in stage length. Revenue per passenger was $127, 9% lower than the 2022 quarter, during which time fuel prices were 40% higher and post-COVID domestic travel demand surged. In May, we launched promotion on another GoWild seasonal product, the Fall & Winter Pass, for travel from September through February. The pass includes access to more than 85 S. and international destinations.
Furthermore, last week, we put the new GoWild monthly pass on sale, giving even more customers the opportunity to enjoy the best value in air travel. Turning to a brief network update, in the Q2, we launched 26 new routes originating from Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago Midway, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Orlando, San Juan, St. Thomas, and Tampa. These new routes were all added to existing Frontier airports, which increases our customer appeal in key markets. That concludes my remarks, and I'll now yield the call to Jimmy.
Jimmy Dempsey (EVP and CFO)
Thank you, Daniel. Q2 results reflect a pre-tax margin of 9.1%, a post-COVID record. The results reflect strong demand throughout the quarter and diligent management of our cost base. Revenue increased 6% on a 23% increase in capacity, while fuel expense was in line with guidance at average cost per gallon of $2.69. Adjusted non-fuel operating expenses were $644 million, beating guidance or $0.069 on a unit basis, 5% lower than the 2022 quarter. We ended the quarter with $780 million of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, or $350 million net of total debt.
In addition to our cash balance, we also have access to substantial liquidity through our unencumbered loyalty and brand related assets. We had 126 aircraft in our fleet at June 30, after taking delivery of three A321neo aircraft during the quarter, two of which were financed with direct leases. Having already experienced significant aircraft delivery delays across the H1 of the year, Airbus has informed us that any further delays should be modest. As such, we expect to end the year with 136 aircraft. Turning to guidance, Q3 capacity growth is anticipated to be in the range of 21% to 23% over the 2022 quarter, while full year 2023 capacity is expected to reflect growth of between 19% to 21% over the prior year.
Fuel costs are expected to be between $2.80 and 2.90 per gallon in the Q3, and $2.90 to 3.00 per gallon for full year 2023, based on the blend of fuel curve on 24th July. Adjusted non-fuel operating expenses in the Q3 are expected to be between $650 to 665 million and $2.535 to 2.585 billion for the full year. This range incorporates the costs related to challenging operating conditions. Finally, reflecting Barry's earlier comments on the operating environment, adjusted pre-tax margin in the Q3 is expected in the range of 4% to 7% and 4% to 6% for the full year. With that, I'll turn the call back to Barry for his closing remarks.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Thanks, Jimmy. I want to personally thank Team Frontier for their dedicated service during the quarter in a difficult operating environment and for delivering low fares done right. We remain focused on controlling the things we can control to run a sound operation despite challenges posed by extraneous factors. Our competitive edge lies in sustaining our cost advantage over the industry, and we intend to utilize this advantage to stimulate leisure travel demand and maximize shareholder value. I want to be clear: while we're disappointed in our projected results, I strongly believe the company will return to double-digit margins, given that most of the headwinds are temporary. I want to thank everyone again for joining this afternoon, and we're ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Again, to ask a question, please press star one one. Our first question comes from Brandon Oglenski of Barclays. Your line is open.
Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Barry, I guess, can you expand on that a little bit? Because you had been guiding, I think, for like 10% to 12% or 10% to 13% pre-tax margin in the back half of the year. This seems like you're pulling that back, you know, somewhere around 4% to 6% at the midpoint. I think you did mention three points from, you know, restructuring operations around Florida and ATC. Can-- can you, maybe dive deeper into that, please?
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Yeah, sure. It's, it's pretty simple math we laid out. We had, we'd put out a 10 to 13 expectation for the H2, and we are seeing roughly 3 points in the operational challenges, as we, as we discussed, with the ATC ground delay programs and so forth. We're seeing those additional three points in the, in the, in the revenue environment, which is primarily driven by the shift to European travel. That, that pretty much explains the six points. I think there might be a little bit more fuel in there as well, but that, that explains it all.
Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Well, I, I guess, Barry, can you talk about the changes around those operational challenges? It looks like your capacity guidance maybe didn't move all that much. Does this go beyond just capacity?
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
No, no, this is, this is just simply, you know, it started a little bit in May, but really took effect in, in kind of your mid-June time frame, and it's continued for the last six weeks pretty heavily. We, we see maybe even a similar storm event. We'll see ground delay programs start hours and hours before, with significantly longer, with lots more minutes. So, you know, we planned our, our airline in the past, we had roughly three hours of buffer built in, and we're seeing consistently with these kind of ground delay programs, we need around four hours. We've made some tweaks to it, but there's, there's no real immediate fixes that will fix this in the near term, until...
When we look forward to next year, and, and beyond, we will start factoring this into our plan. The, the reality is, is that ATC is, is just issuing more ground delay programs, and they're at lasting considerably longer, than we had seen in the past, and so we've got a plan for that. In the meantime, it's a drag until we can, kind of schedule around it.
Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. Appreciate that, Barry. Daniel, maybe can you expand on the European comment, you know, overseas travel, because it's not the first time we've heard it this quarter. You know, should we be thinking that folks have more propensity to travel internationally this year than they will next year?
Daniel Shurz (SVP of Commercial)
Look, what we know, what, what we know, Brandon, is that, you know, as Barry said, our customers, we surveyed our customers, and they're traveling to Europe more. This comment, obviously, from, from, from others, there seems to, there seems to be this clearly pent-up demand for long-haul international travel, and from a US point of origin perspective, that skews very, very heavily to Europe. We don't know. We don't know what, what, we don't obviously know exactly what's gonna happen in the future, but what we've seen in pent-up demand, what we've seen in pent-up demand, generally is the first time you see that pent-up demand, that's when it's strongest, and it tend, it tends to ease off as you go forward.
Brandon Oglenski (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, guys. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director)
Hey, thanks. Just on, on network development, couple questions. On your planning horizon and, and how that relates to the booking curve, we're a little surprised to see large changes to October, you know, here in early August or, or late July. Granted, they were capacity adds, they're not deletes, but can you just talk a little bit about how your network planning process has changed, and how you see it evolving over time. What, what prevents you from planning, you know, with stability kind of further out? Were you waiting to see aircraft availability, et cetera? I guess most importantly, do you think this costs you at all from a, from a sort of long-term bookings curve perspective, or is all the action kind of close in?
Daniel Shurz (SVP of Commercial)
Okay, okay, Duane, I'll, I'll unpack that. Look, I think part we have made tweaks to our, to our, to our schedule and some of our schedule rules and schedule design rules to try and address some of what we've seen in the operational, in the operational environment we're going through at the moment. We made, we made those changes, we made those changes as close in as we could. That did, that did cause us to be somewhat, to get somewhat behind on actually loading, loading all of our schedules. That particularly affected, as you noted, it's actually September that had the most significant effect. That, we, we, we're expecting that to be sort of a relatively one-off.
We're actually moving forward, adding the capacity we want to add earlier, but we did want to make sure that we did make adjustments that we needed to make. We need to see improvements obviously in this and we made some improvements, we think we made some changes that we think will improve operations. From the booking curve perspective, it's a very minor impact. We see most of our volume closer in, much closer in than that. There's a small impact, but it truly is, it truly is small.
Going forward, as we get schedules on sale further out, we've just extended our schedule through New Year, and that impact will go away altogether.
Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director)
Okay, thank you. Just, just with respect to, to the booking curve, you know, at least, at least one carrier in the US talked about, you know, kind of the surprising strength close in, but that they basically didn't assume that going forward for the rest of the quarter. Does that ring true to you? What assumptions have you made with respect to kind of close-in bookings for the balance of the quarter?
Daniel Shurz (SVP of Commercial)
We have a value proposition that works very, that works very well from a, from a close-in perspective. we've seen continued environmental, we've seen a continued trend since the pandemic or since pandemic recovery in 2022 of strong, of strong, of strong close-in, strong close-in demand. Our anticipation, broadly speaking, is that, that will maintain relatively similarly to the way we've seen it over the last number of months.
Duane Pfennigwerth (Senior Managing Director)
Okay. Appreciate the time.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Again, Michael Linenberg, your line is open.
Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)
Oh, great. Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Hey, I guess one part, one question here, but sort of two parts. When we think about your network and we sort of think about what percent is under development, you know, I'm trying to get a sense of, you know, what percent can we look at a same stores basis, and then what would be new? There's obviously, I know you're in a lot of seasonal markets, and so they go away and they come back. How, how should we think about, like, you know, if I were to look at your market today, take a snapshot, like what percentage is under development or, or relatively new markets?
Maybe something that's been added in the last 12 months and, you know, something that's not seasonal, you know, that, that, that comes in and out every, you know, six months out of the year, it's in six months out. Can you give us a better sense on that? I guess that would be to you, Daniel, and then I have sort of a follow-up tied to that.
Daniel Shurz (SVP of Commercial)
Well, first thing I want to mention with regard to this is we are obviously growing at the moment faster than our intended medium-term trend line growth. We've committed to mid-teens growth being our standard medium-term trend line. As we come out of COVID, we're continuing to recover capacity and we're continuing to grow, we're continuing to grow this year at a rate in the 20%. That's tended to push this up.
I'm rapidly scrambling to get you an actual number, because I haven't this one ready. Look, we're always gonna have. We are gonna tend, we're gonna tend, we're gonna tend to have, we're gonna tend to have a higher percent of the network in development broadly because we are growing.
Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Daniel Shurz (SVP of Commercial)
We, we have, we, we, we are, we are, we are we are, we are always looking to add, we're always looking to add, we're always looking to add, add new, add new capacity. It's, and it's, and the, the, the key, the key thing at the moment is we're not adding new we're not, we're not adding new airports to the network. We're adding, we're adding, we're adding during the dark service around, around the, around the country. I'll get back, I'll get back to you, I'll get back to you on the, I'll get back to you on the exact current percentage in development.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
This is Barry. My thing that I would say is, look, if you're in the 20's on growth, that just tells you right there that is all new.
Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Then, and at every given moment, you know, you, you've got anywhere from 15% to 35% of your flying that you did the year before that didn't work, so you redeploy it. That's kind of how growth airlines work. So that, that's gonna push you, just, you know, say 20% of 25% from last year, 30%, actually. So you're in the over 30% is immature.
Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)
Okay.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Yes, we have a significant amount, and I think this is an underappreciated part of Frontier. I mean, we've, you know, people have picked on us about underperforming our historical margins, but I think what people don't grasp...
... is that when you're growing at 10+ points higher than your target rate, and you take a 20% to 30% discount on that, that's just a flat out 3-point drag on margin, and it could likely be even more simply because you're also still coming out of COVID. But that's a long way of telling you, yes, it is, it is over 30% in the immature stage, and that will come down as our growth moderates into 2024, where we're now expected to be in the mid-teens, mid to upper teens.
Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)
Okay. The, the reason I was asking, Barry and Daniel, is that, look, you've done a nice job on ancillary, right? I mean, you're up, you know, year-over-year, $5, moving you know, you're at 80 now. When I look at the base fares, you know, you're down almost $20. So the question is: What you're making up on ancillary, you're losing on base, and presumably, you know, you're a growth carrier and demand stimulation, but we're also in a pretty high inflationary environment, and we are seeing, you know, average fares for a lot of carriers, they're flat to up, and now they're moderating as we move forward.
To see that down as much as it is in the June quarter, presumably that's because they're, like you said, you're in a lot of relatively new markets, call it a third, and so you're engaging in demand stimulation, which is, which is your model, I guess. And, and, and maybe, maybe I'm answering your question or, or maybe I'm missing it, if, if, if there's anything you can add on that, because that, that's a pretty meaningful drop on the base fare.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Look, Mike-- Oh, oh, we're, we're, we're very aware, Mike, and, and, and that is why we're, we're extremely focused on, on getting back to double-digit margins, and a big part of that is getting our growth rate normalized.
Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
We're largely back to a normal growth rate once we get to 2024. Yes, we have swallowed a lot of capacity to get the utilization back, and we're finally almost through that. Yes, it has a corresponding impact to fares, and we need that to stimulate. The good news is, you know, we're growing everything, whether it be your emails, your frequent flyers, your Discount Den members, your GoWild. The good news is that those things are keeping up with our growth, and so as that moderates, we expect to see the benefit of that as we move into 2024.
Michael Linenberg (Research Analyst)
Okay. Okay, very good. Thanks, everyone.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker of JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Jamie Baker (Managing Director and Investment Specialist)
Hey, good afternoon, gentlemen. Appreciate the Airbus commentary before. Just wondering if you have any specific GTF-related assumptions embedded in the forward six-month guide, or if it's just, you know, business as usual.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Thanks, Jamie. We don't have any of the engines, and in fact, the ones that were impacted were manufactured through September of 2021. We did not take an aircraft-- we didn't take a GTF until actually a year later, and that actual engine was manufactured, though both those engines were manufactured in May of 2022. We are about six to eight months past.
Jamie Baker (Managing Director and Investment Specialist)
Okay
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
... the risk profile of those so.
Jamie Baker (Managing Director and Investment Specialist)
Good. Good. You know, looking forward later this year, when you give us some color on 2024 costs, any updated thoughts on whether you may choose to accrue for, you know, new pilot economics, or are you still debating this internally? I suppose more importantly, when you think about your earnings profile, once pilot costs are mark-to-market, do you think about the network any differently? I mean, basically, do you, do you envision flying any differently, or is it just as simple as, you know, hopefully raising fares, in, in hopes of, you know, preserving margins?
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Yeah, look, so I think there's couple of things. One, we're very early. I know there was a group of you asking another airline about whether they should include it, and their contract, I think, had been open for several years. We're not in that situation.
Jamie Baker (Managing Director and Investment Specialist)
Right
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
... so it's very early. We just had our first meeting, so I think we're a little premature on that. But let's just talk about, yes, we, we are going to pay our pilots more at some point. We're gonna pay all of our work groups more at some point. That's why we're constantly innovating and, and looking for ways to, to improve our situation. I'll go back to the previous question about moderating growth. You know, that's gonna be worth several points right there, just in, in RASM, to help pay for it. We can get past the current operational environment, or at least...
I don't know that we'll get past the operational environment because I, I believe the, you know, the, the forecast is, is the ATC staffing stays, stays low for a few years, but we can plan around it much better. I expect that by 2024, we made some, some close-in tweaks, but when you, you know, like any plan, and, and you're, you're an airline geek.
Jamie Baker (Managing Director and Investment Specialist)
Yep.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
I, I know, I know you know how the, the network works. The sooner you know the inputs to putting together a plan, the better and the more optimized it is. As we think about 2024 and probably really our spring and beyond, which is most impacted, just simply because of the weather-related impacts, we are gonna build from the ground up, completely different firebreak assumptions and buffers. You would expect that we would get the majority of this benefit back by planning around the operational impact.
Jamie Baker (Managing Director and Investment Specialist)
Got it.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Then, and then, as you well know, and I think we've probably been the leaders in ancillary, and revenue-related pipeline, so we've got a kind of a robust pipeline there. I believe that we will have, by the time we get new labor contracts, we will have ample capacity to pay for it with all the things that we have in the tank, to expand our margins.
Jamie Baker (Managing Director and Investment Specialist)
Okay, very helpful. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Again, to ask a question, please press star one one. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Savanthi Syth of Raymond James. Your line is open.
Savanthi Syth (Managing Director)
Hey, good afternoon. Can I ask, with getting to kind of mid to upper teens in 2024 in terms of capacity growth and making some of these changes to ATC, I'm guessing you'll have some improvements in kind of IROP costs and things like that. Like, putting all that together, what's your kind of revised view on what CASM, what you can get CASM X to be in 2024? I know it's really early stages, but generally, kind of what's your revised view on CASM X next year?
Jimmy Dempsey (EVP and CFO)
Look, that's Savi, it's Jimmy here. We, we, we haven't published a view on CASM going into next year. I mean, at the moment, we're just putting together our capacity plans so that we can get an idea over the next couple of months on where we think directionally CASM is going, given, given some of the changes that, that, that we have. What we're really focused on is sustaining the differential we have to all of our competitors. You know, in the last quarter, we're, we're constantly $70 per passenger lower cost than all of our competitors across the average of the, of the aviation space here in the States. We would anticipate that we sustain that going through next year. You know, this year, our, our CASM is probably slightly above $0.065.
We would anticipate that, going into next year, it'll be in that area code. One of the things that's benefiting us going into next year is the more normalization profile of Airbus deliveries that we expect across 2024 in comparison to 2023. That will help us.
Savanthi Syth (Managing Director)
Good. Thank, thanks for that. Then, you last quarter, you talked about kind of reshaping capacity. I was wondering if you can provide an update on, on if, you know, how that's playing out. I, I realize kind of the overall pricing environment is a bit softer, but generally, how has kind of the capacity reshaping been, been playing out?
Daniel Shurz (SVP of Commercial)
The first month where we see a, an actual significant amount of that capacity shaping, Savi, is actually, is actually gonna be the month of September. That's the first month with the more significant discussion. We're continuing to see the same travel demand patterns, we continue as we look at what's happening with September bookings. We do absolutely see the day-of-week patterns that we described when we announced these changes. We're confident that we're confident it's the right approach to take, and we're continuing to roll it out as we roll out schedules into 2024.
Savanthi Syth (Managing Director)
Hmm. Appreciate that. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Katherine Kallergis (Residential Bureau Chief and Senior Reporter)
Hi, good afternoon, everyone. This is Katherine Kallergis, on for Ravi, so thank you for taking my question. I wanted to just quickly follow up on a previous question asked about international travel pressuring the shorter haul that you are guiding towards in Q3. Just curious your thoughts around whether or not this might reverse in Q4, as the holidays are typically more favored towards visiting friends and family, and whether or not that's something you're baking in for the full year assumptions. Thank you.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Sure. We don't know. We, we, we surveyed customers, we know that many of them continue to plan travel this fall. What it appears to us is that the summer did get very expensive relative to some people's expectations, so we actually believe a lot of the, the, the demand is going to spill into the fall, therefore, we have not made an assumption that this environment changes before we get into the heart of winter. I do know that once we get to January, February, it's a heck of a lot better to be in Florida than it is in most parts of Europe.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent of Citi. Mr. Trent, your line is open.
Stephen Trent (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Good afternoon, gentlemen, and, and, and thanks very much for taking my question. Just one or two from me. The first one is, definitely appreciate what you guys have mentioned about weather. Did you see, sort of any episodes in July where, let's say extreme heat in places like Vegas, you know, maybe led you to, bump some, daytime capacity in- into the evening, for example? Or, you know, it's kind of we're primarily talking about thunderstorms were the, were the main headache?
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
The biggest challenge is, is, is simply that we are seeing more ground delay programs, and we're seeing them put on much sooner and for much longer duration than we've seen in the past. I mean, we've, we've seen, you know, upwards of 5 to 10x the amount of ground delay program minutes that we've seen in the system versus years past. So the, that's, that's the big challenge. As far as heat goes, yes, I've seen some of those, and I know there was a plane stuck, another, with another carrier. It was stuck, and everything got hot. The, the only specific thing that we've, we've had is there have been the normal challenges with, you know, more tires that are, that are damaged as a result of, of heat.
In particular, we did have one day where the temperatures were so high, in Las Vegas that it caused temperature warnings to cause the fuel in the aircraft to exceed a temperature warning, which actually had to made us cancel flights. We've actually been tankering fuel now in there to mitigate this. I think it's probably less than dozen or two just related specifically to heat. Everything's mainly air traffic control, ground delay programs.
Stephen Trent (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, no, that's great. I definitely appreciate that. Thank you, Barry. One other quick thing. I appreciate what you've, you've mentioned about long-haul demand and what have you. You know, when we think about Florida, you know, over the last kind of two to three years, for a lot of the time, that was kind of the only place that was open. Are you seeing any specific sort of nuances in demand trend aside from more people flying long haul? You know, you hearing one or two organizations want to boycott the state, et cetera, et cetera, but I'm not sure if you're seeing anything like that in, in, in your data. Thank you.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
No, we, we, we, we have not seen anything quite like that. There is some theories around temperature. Like when it's really hot, you don't necessarily want to go to Phoenix right now, and some other places. It doesn't help when those destinations are actually in the news for being very, very hot. When you talk to certain hotels, I think they have, they have actually experienced it. In our data, we haven't really seen anything in particular that points to a state or a specific destination outperforming or underperforming. In fact, I think if you go back, you know, the COVID recovery and the pent-up demand was very uneven. You know, really benefited the Floridas, as you mentioned.
It benefited, even some of the kind of secondary destinations in their off seasons. Then it's taken a little longer for the coasts, the, the New Yorks, the, the Californias to come back. But in our business, we, we've now seen California bounce back as an example. So we, we see a pretty even recovery forming. This is the big shift to, to go to Europe this summer and into the fall, it, it, it takes money. I mean, there's so many consumer dollars. When we look at just our customers, we surveyed our customers, not the whole traveling public. When we lose 5% of our people to go to Europe, that's a lot of customers.
They're spending a lot of money to go on those trips, so that is, that is a, a pretty big dent. We think that it will normalize, just like we saw huge spikes to Florida and other places when the pent-up demand hit. I think that we're gonna see this moderate. The question is, is it three more months or is it six more months? It, it will moderate at some point.
Stephen Trent (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, really appreciate that, Barry. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham of Melius Research. Your line is open.
Conor Cunningham (Director and Travel and Transport Analyst)
Hi, everyone. Thank you. Just on this network reshaping debate, you guys had actually started it last quarter. Now it seems like there's been a bunch following you. You know, as their adjustments are made to Tuesdays and Wednesdays, then capacity is added to the peak days, I've, there's some fear around just potential impacts to fares there. I, I know you, you don't wanna talk about forward fares, if you could just provide any expectation around, you know, how much are you spilling during peak days, or how much do you think you, you should be getting from a fair share standpoint on, on the peak days that you're not right now? Thanks.
Daniel Shurz (SVP of Commercial)
Well, I, Conor, thanks for the question. It's Daniel. I'm not sure there's a huge amount of change coming on peak, coming on peak days. We are-- we, we were a low fare stim- demand stimulating airline, right? What you're seeing, what you're hearing mainly, and what, well, certainly what I've heard mainly as other airlines have talked about this, is really they're taking capacity out of the days where the revenue isn't strong enough to justify flying. We're all, we're all, generally speaking, as an industry, flying our capacity intensely on peak days because that's, that's where the revenue is highest, that's where the demand is highest.
We think the general trend, and certainly the one thing that helps, the more capacity comes out of midweek, the more it stabilizes, the more it stabilizes midweek fares, and the more it helps the demand level on peak days. That's all we can really say from looking from here.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
I would just add, too, look, day-of-week and, and how revenue is spread across the days of the week is not a new phenomena. What we were just the first ones to point out, may be controversial at the time, and yes, as you point out, it seems like just about everyone has followed us, once we've laid the groundwork for them. What you see even pre-today, and go back 10 years, 20 years, is that the midweek capacity, as an example, your Tuesday, Wednesday, that's when your, your, your lowest fares exist traditionally. What it does, it actually pulls people from the peak days over to those days because there's a lower fare option.
What's gonna happen, not only with our changes and now that so many have followed us, there's just gonna be a lot less Tuesday, Wednesday seats, so there's gonna be a lot less discounting. It generally benefits those days, but you also find that it makes your, your peak days even better as well. You typically will see a RASM benefit when you make those trims across every day-of-week, just simply because you remove the most marginal capacity.
Conor Cunningham (Director and Travel and Transport Analyst)
That's helpful. You know, you, you actually faced a fair bit of weather this quarter, and, you know, I know you made the adjustments to the, the modular network. I'm just curious on. I realize a lot of this stuff's out of your control from ATC, but just how you, how you held up from a recoverability standpoint, given the, given the changes to that modular network. Thank you.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Well, I think there's two things I'd say. One, we often, we often see it as a positive that we're diversified and, and, and actually very spread across the United States with multiple bases and, and multiple jurisdictions, and, and we, we pretty much follow all the major travel flows in the United States. Said another way, there's really no way that we're not impacted by weather. Some, some airlines that maybe operate in the West or Northwest United States, they've escaped this, this, this weather this year. If you're in the-- if you, like, like us, are in, you know, Denver, central time zones, Florida, you know, Northeast capacity, then we've gotten hit by that. We are exposed. In terms of the modularity, what we're learning is, is we don't have...
we typically don't have the three, four, five, up to 7-day rolling event because we only, we mainly only have one and 2-day crew pairings. What we have found is that we're likely to be more impacted on the day of. If an airplane goes out and back and has to go through the same weather system twice, or in some cases three times, if you catch a 2-hour delay, every time you go through, by the third leg, that, that aircraft, I can just guarantee you, there's not a crew planning world that that crew hasn't timed out. While it makes us easy to not have these, like, catastrophic, multi-day, you know, week-long events, we are more susceptible on the day that you do have a weather event, if that makes sense.
Conor Cunningham (Director and Travel and Transport Analyst)
It does. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Again, to ask a question, please press star one one. One moment, please. Thank you. I'm showing no further call questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Barry Biffle for any closing remarks.
Barry Biffle (CEO and Board Member)
Well, thank you everyone for joining our call today. Appreciate all the questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.