Executive Summary

Strong Q3: Net revenue rose 14% YoY to $10.17B and non-GAAP EPS grew 23% YoY to $2.98 as lower incentives, pricing, and Value-Added Services (VAS) strength lifted results; GAAP EPS was $2.69 with a $615M litigation provision in OpEx .
Key beats vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue beat by ~$0.32B ($10.17B vs $9.85B*) and EPS beat by ~$0.13 ($2.98 vs $2.85*); EBITDA also topped ($7.11B vs $6.88B*) — broad-based outperformance across revenue lines and profitability (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
Demand resilient; drivers solid: Payments volume +8% (constant), cross-border ex-Intra Europe +11%, processed transactions +10%; VAS revenue grew 26% (constant) to ~$2.8B as product breadth (AI/agentic commerce, tokenization) and adoption accelerated .
Outlook: For Q4, adjusted net revenue growth “high single to low double digits” (unchanged), adjusted OpEx growth “high single to low double digits,” tax rate 18.5–19%, and minimal non-op income; full-year adjusted guidance reiterated with non-op income updated to ~$250M .
Potential stock catalysts: Clear beat on revenue/EPS, accelerating VAS growth, lower-than-expected incentives (deal timing and accrual updates), and expanding stablecoin/AI initiatives (including EURC, Stellar, Avalanche support) support multiple; litigation expense is a headline but largely normalized in non-GAAP results .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Broad top-line and EPS beat: Net revenue +14% to $10.172B; non-GAAP EPS $2.98 vs 2.85* consensus; drivers included pricing, lower incentives (deal timing/accrual reestimates), and strong VAS .
- VAS acceleration and product momentum: VAS revenue grew 26% (constant) to $2.8B, driven by Issuing Solutions (Pismo), Acceptance (new Authorize.net, unified checkout), Risk/Identity (Featurespace), and Advisory; “value-added services remains a powerful engine of revenue growth” .
- Technology/AI/stablecoin roadmap: CEO highlighted AI agents (Visa Intelligent Commerce), >50% of global e-commerce tokenized, nearing 15B tokens, Tap-to-Pay 78% F2F penetration; stablecoin settlement expanded (EURC plus Stellar/Avalanche; USDG, PYUSD via Paxos) supporting cross-border and treasury use cases .
What Went Wrong
- Higher GAAP OpEx: GAAP OpEx +35% YoY due to a $615M litigation provision and higher personnel costs; non-GAAP OpEx +13% YoY; CFO also noted higher deferred comp mark-to-market (EPS neutral) .
- Cross-border yield mix and hedging offsets: Despite higher FX volatility, corridor/client mix and hedging gains below prior year muted the spread between cross-border volume (+11%) and international transaction revenue (+14%) on a nominal basis .
- Q4 deceleration optics: Guide points to lower FX volatility and incentive lapping vs Q3’s one-time benefits, yielding YoY growth optics that are less robust than Q3, though management emphasized both Q3 and Q4 as “strong” quarters .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs prior periods

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Revenue ($B)	$8.900	$9.594	$10.172
GAAP Net Income ($B)	$4.872	$4.577	$5.272
GAAP EPS ($)	$2.40	$2.32	$2.69
Non-GAAP Net Income ($B)	$4.909	$5.442	$5.834
Non-GAAP EPS ($)	$2.42	$2.76	$2.98
Effective Tax Rate (GAAP)	18.6%	15.8%	16.7%
Operating Income ($B)	$5.938	$5.435	$6.177

Margins (calculated from reported figures)

Margin	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Operating Margin %	66.7%	56.6%	60.7%
Net Income Margin % (GAAP)	54.8%	47.7%	51.8%

Revenue mix and incentives

Revenue Component ($B)	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	YoY % (Q3)
Service Revenue	$4.399	$4.330	9%
Data Processing	$4.701	$5.153	15%
International Transaction	$3.291	$3.633	14%
Other Revenue	$0.937	$1.028	32%
Client Incentives	$(3.734)	$(3.972)	13%
Net Revenue	$9.594	$10.172	14%

Key business drivers and KPIs

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Payments Volume YoY (constant)	+8%	+8%
Cross-border ex Intra-Europe YoY (constant)	+13%	+11%
Cross-border Total YoY (constant)	+13%	+12%
Processed Transactions (Billions)	60.7	65.4
Processed Transactions YoY	+9%	+10%
VAS Revenue ($B)	~$2.6	~$2.8

Actual vs S&P Global consensus

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Surprise
Revenue ($B)	$10.172	$9.847*	Beat
EPS (non-GAAP, $)	$2.98	$2.85*	Beat
EBITDA ($B)	$7.109 [GetEstimates]*	$6.883*	Beat

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Notes: Q3 GAAP EPS and net income reflect a $615M litigation provision; non-GAAP excludes this and other items .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted Net Revenue Growth	Q4 FY25	Unchanged from last quarter	High single to low double digits	Maintained
Adjusted Operating Expense Growth	Q4 FY25	Unchanged from last quarter	High single to low double digits	Maintained
Non-operating Income	Q4 FY25	Minimal (qualitative)	Minimal	Maintained
Tax Rate	Q4 FY25	Not previously specified	18.5%–19%	New specificity
Full-year Adjusted Guidance (rev, OpEx, EPS)	FY25	Unchanged	Unchanged (stronger actuals push to high end); Non-op income ~ $250M	Non-op updated higher
Dividend	Next payment	$0.590 (June 2, 2025 paid)	Declared $0.590 payable Sept 2, 2025	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q1 FY25 (prior-2)	Q2 FY25 (prior-1)	Q3 FY25 (current)	Trend
AI/Technology	Early gen-AI adoption; tokens >12.5B; 6-pt higher approval rates with tokenized e-comm	Product Drop preview; ramping AI-enabled issuance/acceptance tools	Visa Intelligent Commerce (agentic AI), >50% global e-comm tokenized; nearing 15B tokens	Accelerating productization
Stablecoins	Stablecoin settlement >$200M cumulative; early days	Pricing/back-half dynamics; stablecoin discussed within cross-border	Support expanded (EURC, USDG, PYUSD; Stellar, Avalanche) and broader use-cases (remittance, B2B)	Broader scope, infra expansion
Consumer/Macro	Holiday season strong; resilience across bands	Resilient; some cross-border softness from FX and Canada→US corridor	Resilient; “no meaningful impact from tariffs”	Stable with isolated FX/mix drags
Cross-border	E-comm +16%, travel +16% (Q1)	E-comm +14%, travel +12%; hedging/mix muted revenue spread	ex-Intra Europe +11%; June slowed on FX, July re-accelerated >1 pt	Solid above pre-COVID, FX-sensitive
Incentives	Renewal-heavy year, growth stepped up	Back-half step-up expected; Q2 +15% lower than expected on deal timing	Q3 +13%, lower than expected; Q4 to be highest growth YoY due to lapping/prior items	Timing/lapping dynamics
VAS	+18% constant ($2.4B)	+22% constant ($2.6B)	+26% constant (~$2.8B)	Accelerating
Regulatory/Legal	N/A	Ongoing MDL accruals in OpEx; cautious on tariffs	$615M litigation provision; MDL update within non-GAAP bridge	Ongoing but isolated to GAAP
Pricing	Back-half weighted benefit in FY25	Back-half weighted; helping data processing spread	Pricing benefited services/data processing in Q3	Benefits more visible H2

Management Commentary

“Visa delivered another strong quarter, with 14% net revenue growth, 12% GAAP EPS growth and 23% non-GAAP EPS growth… focus on innovation in AI and stablecoins… shaping the future of commerce” — CEO Ryan McInerney .
“Net revenue… better than expected, driven by lower incentives, a lower FX headwind, and higher value-added services revenue” — CFO Chris Suh .
“Tap-to-pay penetration is now at 78% of face-to-face transactions globally… more than 50% of our e-commerce transactions are tokenized globally” — CEO .
“Stablecoins… product-market fit in emerging markets with volatile fiat and in cross-border money movement… building a multi-coin, multi-chain foundation” — CEO and press release .
“Value-added services remains a powerful engine of revenue growth… growth accelerating to 26% in constant dollars” — CEO/CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Q4 cadence: Reported growth optics decelerate from Q3 given lower FX volatility and incentive lapping; normalize for those and both Q3 and Q4 are “strong.” Adjusted Q4 net revenue guidance unchanged; tax rate 18.5–19% .
Incentives: Q3 lower than expected (deal timing and accrual updates); Q4 to be the high point YoY; renewal volume ~20% of PV in FY25; focus remains on net revenue growth, not a structural change in incentive ratio .
Cross-border yield: Higher volatility aided revenue, but hedging gains below prior year and client/corridor mix (Canada→US softness; US inbound is higher-yield) narrowed the spread vs volume growth .
OpEx: Q3 OpEx higher vs plan due to smaller FX benefit and deferred comp mark-to-market (EPS-neutral via NOI); Q4 OpEx growth to track revenue (high single to low double digits) .
Visa Direct: 10B+ LTM transactions; cross-border use-cases expanding; pricing “priced to value,” yields comparable to debit; bank partners embedding Visa Direct for remittances .

Estimates Context

Revenue: $10.17B actual vs $9.85B* consensus; beat driven by stronger services/data processing, VAS outperformance, and lower-than-expected incentives .
EPS (non-GAAP): $2.98 actual vs $2.85* consensus; aided by net revenue strength, minimal FX drag, and in-line tax; GAAP EPS $2.69 includes $615M litigation provision .
EBITDA: ~$7.11B actual vs ~$6.88B* consensus; margin supported by mix and pricing despite GAAP OpEx step-up [GetEstimates]*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Core engine healthy: Double-digit revenue growth with beats on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA; underlying volume metrics remain solid and above pre-COVID trend for cross-border .
Mix and pricing tailwinds: Data processing and services pricing plus VAS breadth are lifting yield above volume growth; expect back-half weighted pricing benefits to persist .
Incentives volatility but manageable: Q3 incentives were lower than expected; Q4 will be the highest YoY due to lapping; structurally, management targets net revenue growth, not a fixed incentive ratio .
AI and stablecoin optionality: Rapid tokenization progress, agentic commerce initiatives, and expanded stablecoin settlement (EURC, Stellar, Avalanche, USDG, PYUSD) broaden monetization vectors across VAS and cross-border .
Litigation a GAAP headwind but normalized in non-GAAP: $615M Q3 provision depressed GAAP OpEx/EPS; non-GAAP shows underlying earnings power .
Capital returns intact: ~$4.8B buybacks in Q3, $1.2B dividends, $29.8B authorization remaining; dividend maintained at $0.590 for September 2 .
Near-term trading angle: Beat-and-raise optics on intra-quarter trends with unchanged adjusted guidance (but stronger implied FY outcome) plus accelerating VAS and stablecoin/AI narrative should be supportive; watch FX volatility, corridor mix, and Q4 incentive lapping effects .

Please note: Cells marked with an asterisk (*) reflect Wall Street consensus from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

VISA INC. (V)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary