Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
- Improving wholesale business and inventory management: VFC's wholesale business is on a positive trajectory, particularly in the Americas, where the creation of the Americas region has driven strong momentum with key accounts. The company feels good about channel inventories worldwide and expects inventories to continue decreasing, improving margins and operational efficiency.
- Strength in The North Face brand and increased full-price selling: The North Face continues to perform well, especially in China, VFC's biggest market for the brand. In North America, the company is optimistic about The North Face's performance heading into the winter season. Additionally, VFC is seeing more full-price selling across its brands, which is encouraging and should benefit gross margins.
- Positive developments in Vans and leadership changes: VFC is making progress in turning around the Vans brand. The reset actions are behind them, and the new leader, Sun, is actively impacting product and marketing initiatives. The company is introducing new products and receiving positive feedback from wholesalers, with wholesale channels currently outperforming direct-to-consumer for Vans. There is growing excitement in key markets, indicating potential for future growth.
- Weakness in Vans' performance in China and overall slow turnaround: The company's Vans brand is facing challenges in China, with progress described as "two steps forward and two steps back", indicating a sluggish turnaround in a key market.
- Ongoing declines in other key brands such as Timberland and Dickies: Timberland's revenue continued to decline, with the brand still not showing growth ("less down is better than more down, but it's still not up"). Dickies is in the middle of stabilization, and returning to growth remains uncertain.
- Limited visibility into future performance reflected by short-term guidance: VF Corporation is only providing revenue and profit guidance one quarter out, rather than offering full-year guidance, which may indicate uncertainty and lack of confidence in the company's longer-term outlook.
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Guidance and Outlook
Q: Can you provide more detail on the outlook for Q3 and Q4?
A: Management expects further sequential improvement in revenue trends for Q3 and Q4. For Q3, they project revenue between $2.7 billion to $2.75 billion, declining 1% to 3% on a reported basis. Gross margin is expected to increase year-over-year due to lower product costs and fewer reserves. They are confident in the path forward but are not providing specific Q4 guidance at this time. -
Gross Margin Expectations
Q: How do you see gross margins evolving in the coming quarters?
A: Management anticipates gross margin to rise in both Q3 and Q4, benefiting from lower product costs and improved full-price selling. Actions taken in prior quarters will also contribute to gross margin expansion. Detailed insights will be shared at the upcoming Investor Day. -
Cost Savings and Reinvestment Plans
Q: Can you provide details on additional cost savings beyond the $300 million and reinvestment plans?
A: The company has executed actions to deliver $300 million in cost savings by the end of the fiscal year and intends to exceed this initial target. Future savings will focus on deeper reengineering to drive growth. They plan to reinvest in product and marketing to fuel future success. More details will be discussed at the Investor Day. -
Inventory Levels and Expectations
Q: How are inventory levels looking, and what are your expectations moving forward?
A: Inventories decreased by 13% year-over-year. Management believes there is room to reduce inventories further over time by changing operational methods. They do not expect inventories to increase suddenly; if anything, they anticipate them to decline more. Channel inventories are healthy overall, with some variances by region. -
Vans Turnaround Progress
Q: What is the progress on the Vans turnaround and performance across geographies?
A: Vans revenue was down 11% in the quarter, an improvement from down 21% in Q1. Management sees signs of progress, especially in wholesale channels, and is encouraged by new product launches like Knu Skool, Upland, and High Lane. Vans is underdeveloped internationally, representing a growth opportunity, while the U.S. market offers significant upside. -
Free Cash Flow Guidance
Q: Can you provide guidance on free cash flow for the second half?
A: Management expects free cash flow of around $425 million for the full year, adjusting from previous guidance due to the sale of Supreme and additional investments. They feel good about free cash flow relative to expectations and are reinvesting $50 million into cost-saving initiatives that will benefit fiscal '26. -
Non-Core Asset Sales and Portfolio Review
Q: Can you update us on non-core asset sales and the portfolio review?
A: The company expected about $60 million from non-core asset sales and exceeded that by about $15 million. The portfolio review is officially "done for now," but management will continue to re-examine the portfolio for strategic fit and performance. -
North Face Performance and Expectations
Q: How is The North Face performing in North America, and what are your expectations for the winter season?
A: The North Face revenue was down 4%, aligning with previous guidance due to a strong prior-year comparison. Management remains optimistic about the winter season, noting that it's too early to draw conclusions but that the season appears to be starting better than last year. They are confident in delivering guidance regardless of weather variations. -
Health of Wholesale Business
Q: What is the health of your wholesale business and inventory levels going into the holidays?
A: Management feels good about the wholesale business, noting it's on the right trajectory with strong momentum, especially in the Americas. Channel inventories are healthy globally, though some regions have slight variances due to factors like last year's late winter. -
Impact of Regional Platform
Q: How is the regional platform benefiting go-to-market processes at the brands?
A: The regional platform has improved relationships with key wholesale accounts, particularly in the Americas. This approach, successful in EMEA and APAC, is now helping to understand and support top accounts in the Americas, fostering mutual growth. -
Dickies Brand Stabilization
Q: What are your thoughts on the stabilization of the Dickies brand?
A: Management is in the midst of stabilizing Dickies, having reset the strategy with a focus on "winning at work" before expanding further. They've appointed Chris Goble, formerly of Gap, to lead the turnaround. While it's early days, they are excited about the potential under new leadership. -
Fixed vs. Variable Costs and Expense Management
Q: How should we think about fixed versus variable costs and expense management?
A: Management acknowledges the importance of balancing costs but deferred detailed discussion to the Investor Day. They feel they have good momentum across the P&L and are working through cost savings to improve operating margins. -
Introducing Quarterly Guidance
Q: Why are you introducing quarterly guidance instead of full-year guidance?
A: Management believes providing guidance one quarter at a time allows them to focus on delivering consistent results. They aim to confidently predict and meet numbers each quarter, rather than committing to annual targets without sufficient visibility. More on this approach will be shared at the Investor Day. -
Promotional Environment Heading into Holidays
Q: What are you seeing in the promotional environment for Vans and The North Face heading into the holidays?
A: The promotional environment is better than last year, with less excess inventory both within the company and among wholesale partners. There's an increase in full-price selling, which is encouraging, though some promotions remain. -
Business Predictability and Investment Priorities
Q: What drivers are making the business more predictable, and where are you investing?
A: Improved forecasting accuracy, particularly in the Americas, has increased predictability. Management feels confident in forecasting revenue, gross margins, and SG&A across all regions. Investment priorities include product innovation and marketing, reinvesting savings to drive growth. -
AUR vs. Units and Brand Elevation
Q: How are you balancing average unit retail (AUR) versus units in brand elevation efforts?
A: While not providing specific details, management is confident in their brand elevation program. They acknowledge it will take time, potentially a few years, to fully scale up but believe they are on the right path, citing examples like the OTW line in Vans. -
Timberland Premium Boots Performance
Q: Are you seeing elevated interest in Timberland's premium boots globally?
A: Premium boots, including the Yellow Boot, are performing well globally, supported by campaigns and collaborations like the Louboutin partnership. While the brand is still facing declines, the strength in premium products is a positive sign, and management will continue to monitor progress.
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