Veralto - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Please stand by. Your program is about to begin. If you need assistance during your conference today, please press star zero. My name is Shelby, and I will be your conference operator this morning. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Veralto Corporation third quarter 2023 earnings results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then the number two on your telephone keypad. I will now turn the call over to Ryan Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Taylor, you may begin your conference.

Ryan Taylor (VP of Invester Relations)

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. With me today are Jennifer Honeycutt, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sameer Ralhan, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is simultaneously being webcast. A replay of the webcast will be available on the investor section of our website later today under the heading Events and Presentations and will remain available until our next quarterly call. A replay of this call will be available until November 10th, 2023.

Before we begin, I'd like to point out that yesterday we issued our third quarter news release, earnings presentation, and supplemental materials, including information required by SEC Regulation G, relating to any adjusted or non-GAAP financial measures. These materials are available in the investor section of our website, www.veralto.com, under the heading Quarterly Earnings. As it relates to non-GAAP measures, I want to highlight that we are presenting adjusted operating profit and adjusted EBITDA on a standalone basis, including incremental standalone costs as estimated by management for all periods. We are also presenting adjusted diluted earnings per share, including incremental standalone costs and interest expense related to our new capital structure.

Reconciliations of adjusted figures and all non-GAAP measures are provided in the appendix of the webcast slides. Unless otherwise noted, all financial metrics relate to the third quarter of 2023, and all references to variances are on a year-over-year basis. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our most recent SEC filings. Actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jennifer.

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for Veralto's first earnings call as an independent, publicly traded company. The third quarter of 2023 marks a significant milestone for Veralto as we successfully completed our separation from Danaher. We accomplished this in just over 12 months from the time of announcement, a truly remarkable achievement. During the third quarter, we filed our Form 10, issued our 2022 sustainability report, and hosted our first investor event. At that event, we described key attributes that differentiate Veralto, along with our framework to create long-term shareholder value and our disciplined approach to strategic capital allocation. I'm proud of our team for their extraordinary effort related to the separation, while also driving solid operating execution in support of our customers.

Through the first nine months of this year, we delivered core sales growth of 3%, expanded adjusted operating profit margin by 50 basis points, and converted 105% of net income into free cash flow. We ended the third quarter in a strong financial position with over $425 million of cash on hand and net leverage below 2x. Given our financial position and strong free cash flow profile, I'm pleased to share with you that we expect to announce a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share in Q4 2023. We are off to a great start as a public company, and there is positive energy throughout Veralto. Our team is tremendously excited about the significant opportunities in front of us to create value for shareholders.

Before we dive into the results of the quarter, I'll open with a brief overview of Veralto for those who may be new to our story. Veralto is a global leader in water and product quality, with essential technology solutions and a proven track record of solving some of the most complex challenges we face as a society. Our annual sales are approximately $5 billion, and we are organized in two reporting segments: Water Quality and Product Quality and Innovation, or PQI for short. Our Water Quality segment represents about 60% of total sales and is positioned at the high end of the value continuum, with leading brands in water analytics and water treatment. Our PQI segment represents about 40% of sales and is a leader in marking and coding technology, as well as packaging design and color solutions.

Across both segments, our key brands are leaders in their respective industries, with long track records of innovation, commercial excellence, and continuous improvement. Our global team is more than 16,000 strong, and we serve over 225,000 customers by leveraging our scientific expertise and innovative technologies to help our customers solve complex challenges. Our technologies and services play an integral role in our customers' operations and are typically used in production environments where the cost of failure is high. Approximately 85% of our sales are tied to water, food, and medicine. We help our customers ensure drinking water is pure, foods and beverages are authentic, and medicine is safe to consume. Turning now to Q3, our team delivered a solid quarter in a dynamic macro environment as we continued to face headwinds from broad weakness in China and lower demand for consumer packaged goods.

Pricing remained favorable, but continues to moderate towards historical levels, both sequentially and year-over-year, as supply chains normalize and inflation slows. Additionally, we are proactively improving the efficiency of our cost structure while maintaining a healthy cadence of R&D and growth investments. In the third quarter this year, we delivered $1.25 billion in sales, of which 59% were recurring. Core sales growth was 1%, following 11% core growth in Q3 2022, bringing our two-year core growth stack to 6%, in line with our historical mid-single digit growth rate. Adjusted operating profit margin, including incremental standalone costs, was 22.4%, and adjusted EPS was $0.75 per share.

Adjusted EBITDA was $290 million, or 23.1% of sales, and we generated over $230 million of free cash flow, or 113% of net income. This performance reflects our ability to navigate a dynamic macro environment and is a testament to delivering results with the Veralto Enterprise System. Looking now at core sales by geography. On a combined basis, core sales grew 3.5% in North America and 2.5% in Western Europe. In high-growth regions, core sales declined 5%, due predominantly to weakness in China, where our core sales declined in the high teens. In North America, our growth was led by Water Quality and highlighted by strong growth across our water treatment businesses, with modest growth in water analytics.

In water treatment, sales volumes at both ChemTreat and Trojan increased year-over-year. ChemTreat saw steady growth across industrial end markets and continued to win new customers through technical expertise and strong commercial execution. At Trojan, we saw good penetration of our UV systems at municipalities, along with strong growth from our mobile rental program at Aria Filtra, the former Pall Water brand. For PQI, core sales in North America declined 2.5%, as modest growth in marking and coding was more than offset by a decrease in sales of packaging, hardware and color equipment. In Western Europe, Water Quality delivered 5.5% core sales growth, with PQI flat. In Water Quality, core sales growth was led by Hach analytical instruments and consumables, with Germany and France contributing the highest growth.

At PQI, marking and coding sales were flat, and modest growth in packaging design software was offset by lower sales of color equipment. When we look at high-growth markets, modest growth in Latin America, India, and Eastern Europe was more than offset by the sharp decline of sales into China. In China, core sales for Water Quality were down high teens, with PQI core sales down more than 20% year-over-year. These declines reflect broad weakness in China's economy. Looking ahead, we anticipate ongoing weakness in China and lower year-over-year volumes in global consumer packaged goods to persist. Despite these near-term headwinds, we remain confident in the attractive secular growth drivers for both Water Quality and PQI, and our ability to grow core sales in the mid-single digits over the long term.

At this point, I'll turn the call over to Sameer for a detailed review of our third quarter financial performance.

Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)

Thanks, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with our consolidated results on slide eight. Third quarter net sales grew 3% on a year-over-year basis to $1.25 billion. Our core sales were up 1%. Currency contributed 1.5%, and acquisitions contributed 0.5% to overall sales growth. We continue to execute relevant pricing to mitigate inflationary pressures. Pricing contributed 3.5% to sales growth in the third quarter over the prior year period. You can see this benefit in our gross profit, which increased 4% on a year-over-year basis to $723 million. Gross margin was 57.6%, up 70 basis points from the prior year third quarter. Adjusted operating profit was flat year-over-year. Note that on an adjusted basis, both quarters presented here include incremental standalone costs.

Adjusted operating profit margin was 22.4%, down 60 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to higher SG&A related to growth investments and labor cost inflation. We generated $232 million of free cash flow, representing 113% conversion of GAAP net earnings. Moving to the next chart, I'll cover the business segment highlights, starting with Water Quality. Our Water Quality segment delivered $772 million of sales, up 4% on a year-over-year basis. Currency was a 1% benefit. Core sales grew 3% year-over-year, as compared to 16.5% growth in the prior year period, bringing the two-year core growth stack for Water Quality to about 10%. Pricing contributed 5% to core sales growth in the period, offsetting the impact of lower overall volume.

On a positive note, we drove increased volume in water treatment across ChemTreat and Trojan businesses, which was more than offset by lower sales volume in water analytics businesses. Weakness in China across both municipal and industrial customers, representing the biggest impact. Adjusted operating profit increased 3% year-over-year, with margins down modestly due to an increase in growth investments and higher labor costs. Note that adjusted operating profit for both periods presented here includes an allocation of incremental standalone costs. Through the first nine months of the year, core sales in Water Quality are up 6%, with adjusted operating profit margin up 60 basis points, a strong nine-month performance. Moving to the next page. Our PQI segment delivered sales of $483 million in the third quarter, up 1% versus the prior year period.

Currency was a 2.5% benefit, and acquisitions contributed 1% to the year-over-year growth. Core sales decreased 2.5%, reflecting the impact of lower demand for consumer packaged goods and weakness in China. Pricing was a 2% benefit in the quarter, partially offsetting the impact of volume declines across the product portfolio in the PQI segment. From a product perspective, core sales of marking and coding solutions were flat, whereas core sales of packaging and color solutions were down 7% on a year-over-year basis. Again, on a positive note, recurring sales for our marking and coding business were up about 5% year-over-year and 1% sequentially.

Based on the customer insights, we believe destocking of consumables has largely run its course, and we're beginning to see signs of stabilization sequentially in some of the end markets of our marking and coding business. That said, we expect lower demand in broader consumer packaged goods markets in China to persist through the balance of the year. Over time, we are confident that we will return to our historical low to mid-single-digit growth rate for PQI. PQI's adjusted operating profit that includes incremental standalone costs for the third quarter was $110 million, and adjusted operating profit margin was 22.8%, down 80 basis points on a year-over-year basis. Improved pricing and benefits from cost optimization actions were offset by lower core sales volume and higher SG&A, related primarily to growth investments and labor costs.

Additionally, the devaluation of the Argentine peso during the quarter had an unfavorable impact on PQI's adjusted operating profit and margin. Excluding this discrete currency impact, PQI's adjusted operating profit margin would have modestly improved year-over-year. For the first nine months of the year, core sales in PQI were down 1.5%, with adjusted operating profit margin up 60 basis points. Turning now to our financial position on the next page. During the quarter, we generated $243 million of cash from operations, and we invested $11 million in capital expenditures. As a result, free cash flow was $232 million in the quarter, or 113% conversion of GAAP net earnings. This quarter again demonstrates the strong free cash flow generation capabilities of our businesses.

Note that we did not have any cash payments related to interest costs in Q3. Going forward, we'll have semi-annual interest payments in the first and third quarter of the year. As of September 29th, gross debt was $2.6 billion, and cash on hand was $426 million. Net debt was just under $2.2 billion, resulting in net leverage of 1.8x. In summary, we strengthened our financial position during the quarter and have ample liquidity. This gives us flexibility in how we deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value. At our Investor Day, we discussed a financial policy and capital allocation framework. Conceptually, our framework is grounded in driving compounded earnings growth while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet.

Our bias is to drive compounding growth in earnings and cash flow through investment in high ROIC organic growth opportunities aligned with secular growth drivers in both of our businesses, and strategic acquisitions that drive long-term value creation. Within our framework, we also maintain flexibility to return capital to shareholders. In line with this capital allocation framework, we intend to initiate a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share, starting with the fourth quarter of this year, subject to approval by the board of directors with respect to each such dividend. Turning now to our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year. For the fourth quarter, on a consolidated basis, we expect core sales to be flat to down low single digits year-over-year. This assumes an ongoing weakness in China across both segments.

In our Water Quality segment, we expect core sales to be flat year-over-year, with another tough comp given 10% growth in Q4 last year. In our PQI segment, we expect core sales to be down low- to mid-single digits. This decline is expected due to the ongoing weakness in consumer packaged goods and markets on a year-over-year basis. We anticipate adjusted operating profit margin in the range of 23.5%-24.5%. That's about 100-200 basis points better on a sequential basis. Our guidance for the adjusted diluted earnings per share is in the range of $0.79-$0.84. Note that adjusted earnings per share excludes amortization expense, assumes Q4 tax rate of approximately 25%, and reflects diluted shares outstanding of approximately 250 million.

For the full year, we expect core sales to grow low single digits on a year-over-year basis. This assumes mid-single-digit growth at Water Quality and low single-digit decline at PQI.

Our adjusted EPS guidance for the full year 2023 is in the range of $3.11-$3.16 per share, assuming an effective tax rate around 25% and diluted shares outstanding of approximately 247 million.

Our adjusted EPS guidance excludes amortization expense and includes incremental standalone costs and annual pre-tax interest expense of approximately $140 million. Despite the dynamic macro environment that Jennifer outlined earlier on the call, our teams remain focused on controlling what we can control to drive core growth and deliver on our targets for the fourth quarter. With that, I'll turn the call back to Jennifer.

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Thanks, Sameer. In summary, we successfully executed our spin-off from Danaher and are off to a good start as a public company. For nine months this year, we have delivered 3% core sales growth, 50 points of adjusted operating profit margin expansion, and 105% free cash flow conversion, solid operating results amid a dynamic macro backdrop. And yesterday, we announced our expectation to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share. Going forward, we are focused on delivering our commitments, driving continuous improvement, and executing disciplined strategic capital allocation that creates sustainable long-term value for shareholders. In closing, I want to reiterate our long-term value creation framework. Over the long term, we expect to deliver mid-single-digit core sales growth with incremental margin fall through in the 30%-35% range, and we expect 100% free cash flow conversion annually.

Intend to complement core growth with disciplined strategic acquisitions. We are confident that the durability of our business, the essential need for our technology solutions, and the strong secular growth drivers of our end markets will provide steady growth consistent with our historical track record. The combination of our leading brands, proven value creation playbook, powered by the Veralto Enterprise System, and the strength of our balance sheet differentiates Veralto and positions us to deliver sustainable long-term shareholder value. And as we look to build our future, we are unified and inspired by our shared purpose, safeguarding the world's most vital resources. Our talented, diverse team is excited about the bright future ahead and the opportunities to drive value creation for shareholders by helping customers solve some of the world's biggest challenges while having a positive, enduring impact on our environment. That concludes our prepared remarks.

I want to thank you again for joining our call, and at this time, we're happy to take your questions.

Operator (participant)

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star and one on your touch-tone phone. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star two. Once again, that is star and one to ask a question. We will pause for a moment to allow questions to queue. And we'll take our first question from Mike Halloran with Baird. Your line is open.

Mike Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)

Hey, good morning, everyone, and congrats on a good public first quarter as a public company. So-

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Thanks, Mike.

Mike Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)

Yeah, thanks. Let's start on the margin side here. Maybe give some context on why the healthy sequential uptick from the third quarter to the fourth quarter on the margin line. You know, any help you could give us by segment would be great. And then is this the right jumping-off point, you know, adjusting for seasonality and revenue levels and all that, but is this the right jumping-off point as we think about 2024?

Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)

Yeah, Mike, this is Sameer. I'll jump in on that one. You know, if you're going to look at the sequential margin improvement, that's primarily driven by some of the cost optimization things that we've been done, especially in PQI, and also the impact of the Argentine peso devaluation in Q3. We have not assumed that in Q4, so one-off item in Q3. So, majority of the uptick that you see on a sequential basis going from Q3 to Q4 will be in the PQI segment.

Mike Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)

Got it. Then, is that the right thought process then for next year? I mean, is the fourth quarter a more representative run rate as you think about things relative to the third quarter?

Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)

Yeah, if you're going to look at, you know, some of the costs, things like, you know, standalone costs, you know, we are ramping from Q2 to Q3, they're going to be, you know, on a more run rate basis in Q4, so they're going to start reflecting. But overall, you know, impact from the demand, the sales, which are ultimately close to the margin as well. We'll give that guide view as we might get the guide early next year for 2024.

Mike Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)

Makes sense. And then on the PQI side, some comments about certainly softness in China. I don't think that's a surprise to anybody. But you also commented on the destocking side of things on the consumable side. So a couple of things. One, could you just give some thoughts on how you think this demand picture plays out as we look on a forward basis? But also, in the fourth quarter, is the thought process that sell in and sell out are a little bit more balanced from the portfolio perspective, or is there a little bit more to come?

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Yeah, thanks for the question, Mike. You know, relative to PQI, I think what we're seeing is signs of sequential stabilization. Again, in the prepared comments, this is really focused on sort of the improving consumable sales. We believe this is attributed to customer destocking being largely complete and resuming, you know, order rates more in line with run rate ordering, albeit at lower overall volumes. So you know, that said, as we think about the fourth quarter, consumer packaged goods volumes, we still expect to be net negative on a year-over-year basis. Changes in consumer behavior, you know, relative to inflationary pricing, means that these folks, you know, on the customer side, are going to be doing fewer production runs and smaller batches.

That said, you know, we still have a pretty variable and highly uncertain environment in China as well.

Mike Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)

No, that makes sense. And last one, if I may, on the Water Quality side of things. It certainly seems like if you exclude the China part of the business, where there's just broader-based weakness, that there's a lot of stability across the portfolio here. Maybe just talk about how you think about the economic sensitivity of that segment, excluding the China piece. You know, it certainly seems like that's built to be a little bit more resilient here.

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, certainly our biggest downdraft in volume in water was attributed to our China business. I think, you know, what we see here is we see some relatively good growth on the treatment side. Certainly Trojan benefiting from the CHIPS Act. We've got ChemTreat that's seeing good positive momentum in sectors such as energy, agriculture, and metals. You know, on the muni demand side, for municipalities, it was a little bit softer. Municipalities are really focused on making sure that they are focused on regulatory compliance. And so their order patterns are consistent with that, but they're still holding off a little bit in terms of plant upgrades and investments related to optimization.

Process optimization, still a little bit lackluster, but, you know, solid demand still in the municipal regulatory compliance side.

Mike Halloran (Senior Research Analyst and Associate Director of Research)

Great. Really appreciate all the color. Thank you.

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Thanks, Mike.

Operator (participant)

Once again, if you'd like to ask a question, please press Star and One on your telephone keypad. We'll take our next question from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Andy Kaplowitz (Managing Director)

Good morning, everyone. Congrats on the launch.

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Thanks, Andy.

Andy Kaplowitz (Managing Director)

Jennifer, Sameer, maybe just a little more color on PQI margin in Q3, and really the trend over the last several quarters. You know, I know you mentioned the currency issue in the quarter. You also talked, I think, in the press, in the presentation around growth investments, labor inflation. But is there just inefficiency in a region such as China that's holding you back? Or, you know, would you expect to see margin recovery as China gets better maybe next year?

Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)

Yeah, Andy, thanks for the question. Look, I think overall for the PQI side, overall, yes, in general, you know, with the volumes as well, you're going to see some impact on the absorption side. But overall, the biggest impact actually was the currency one, so that's why I highlighted that in my prepared remarks. You know, just to frame that and, kind of, for you, essentially the impact, if the Argentine peso devaluation impact you remove, actually, PQI would have been up by almost 60 basis points. So that gives you just a sense of how big the impact was, you know, going from 22.8% to almost 24.2%.

So that is one of the biggest impact, and that, of course, is one-off, and we don't expect that to occur in 2024 in Q4. Also we did some cost optimization actions. As you know, we don't take those costs out or adjust those costs out, so the benefit of that, you're going to start seeing in Q4 itself. That's why I earlier said that you're going to start seeing the sequential improvement in Q4 in PQI, and that's driving a big chunk of the overall company sequential improvement as that we end up with the guidance.

Andy Kaplowitz (Managing Director)

That's great, Sameer. And Jennifer, just I want to follow up on your comments on municipalities sort of holding back, I guess, Hach. Seems like, you know, that's happening in North America. We know you have tough comps versus last year, but sort of what gets them to sort of accelerate, you know, to get back to? I would assume that you, you still think Hach could grow mid-single digits across this cycle. So, so what do you need to see to sort of get that to happen?

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, I think some of these, you know, supply and demand nuances will start to level out. You know, there is good funding available with the infrastructure bill here in North America. We're seeing, you know, robust growth here for our municipal business in Europe. So it's really, you know, more of a matter, I think, of sort of the global economic environment and sort of a steady recovery of industrial markets. But, you know, we hold to the mid-single-digit performance for Water Quality going forward. These are essential solutions for, you know, people around the world. So we think the underlying macro is a little bit choppy right now, but the secular drivers remain strong.

Andy Kaplowitz (Managing Director)

Got it. One more question, if I could. Like, how are you thinking about the M&A pipeline and the potential timeline of, you know, your first deal as a public company? Do you need a bit of transition time to execute as a public company before you consummate a bigger deal, or could we expect M&A to ramp up sooner versus later? And maybe are there any particular areas of interest as you sort of come out on M&A?

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Yeah, thanks for the question, Andy. You know, our pipeline across both Water Quality and PQI is strong for M&A, and we've got a number of opportunities that are currently being considered. We do not anticipate that we will require a lengthy ramp time as a public company. We have executed the spin with a remarkable level of discipline and focus on the back of the learnings that Danaher had from its two prior spins, and we feel pretty good about where we are positioned. That said, we are going to take a very disciplined approach to M&A, just as we would expect from our heritage at Danaher.

We're going to make sure that it's a market that we like, with companies that have similar operating model durability and financial profiles, where VES can drive growth and margin expansion, and we've got to be able to get it at the right valuation. So, we believe, obviously, this is going to be an important catalyst for value creation over time, but we will maintain similar rigor and discipline as we've seen amongst these businesses as part of Danaher in the past. So timing is always difficult to predict. M&A is episodic, but we are in the market and working a number of opportunities.

Andy Kaplowitz (Managing Director)

Appreciate the time.

Operator (participant)

Once again, that is star one to ask a question. We'll take our next question from Joe Giordano with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Michael Anastasiou (VP)

Good morning, everyone. This is Michael on for Joe.

Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)

Michael.

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Good morning, Michael.

Michael Anastasiou (VP)

Yeah. I was just curious, as you look towards the fourth quarter, you know, what customers might be telling you around the potential for a budget flush? You know, what is the guidance kind of assume versus historical patterns?

Jennifer Honeycutt (President and CEO)

Yeah, I think that remains variable based on what industries, markets we're talking about. We do see some of our customer segments that are use it or lose it kinds of budgets. We would expect that we will see some of that here in the fourth quarter, albeit at probably lower rates than we have seen sort of historically in the pre-pandemic era.

Sameer Ralhan (SVP and CFO)

Joe, maybe if I can add a little bit, is as we're going to talk to the Investor Day, right? We are a lot more tied to the operating budget to the-- of our customers rather than the capital side, so that kind of helps us as well as we're going to move forward.

Michael Anastasiou (VP)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

It appears that we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to Ryan Taylor for any additional or closing remarks.

Ryan Taylor (VP of Invester Relations)

Thanks, Shelby. This concludes our third quarter earnings call. We thank you very much for joining us. I'll be available over the next several days for follow-ups, should you have any additional questions. Thank you once again, and that concludes our call.

Operator (participant)

That concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.