Vulcan Materials Company - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Vulcan Materials Company's second quarter 2023 earnings call. My name is Angela, and I will be your conference call coordinator today. During the Q&A portion of this call, we ask that you limit your participation to one question. This will allow everyone who wishes the opportunity to participate. Now, I will turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mark Warren, Vice President of Investor Relations for Vulcan Materials. Mr. Warren, you may begin.

Mark Warren (VP of Investor Relations)

Good morning. Thank you for your interest in Vulcan Materials. With me today are Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO, and Mary Andrews Carlisle, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is accompanied by a press release and a supplemental presentation posted at our website. Please be reminded that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks, along with other legal disclaimers, are described in detail in the company's earnings release and in other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures are defined and reconciled in our earnings release, our supplemental presentation, and other SEC filings. As the operator said, in the interest of time, please limit your Q&A participation to one question. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Mark, thank all of you for your interest in Vulcan Materials today. Our results through the first half of 2023 highlight both the attractive fundamentals of our aggregates-led business and Vulcan's commitment to compounding profitability through our solid execution of our Vulcan Way of Selling and Vulcan Way of Operating strategic disciplines. I'm proud of our teams for delivering yet another quarter of improvement in our trailing 12-month aggregate cash gross profit per ton. That marks 20 of the last 22 quarters. This exceptional execution, coupled with better-than-expected demand environment, gives us confidence in our ability to deliver between $1.9 billion and $2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA this year. In the quarter, we generated $595 million of Adjusted EBITDA, which is a 32% improvement over the prior year.

Gross margin expanded by 480 basis points. Importantly, each product line delivered year-over-year improvement. In the aggregate segment, gross margin improved by 290 basis points. cash gross profit per ton improved by 22%, with healthy year-over-year price improvement and moderating year-over-year cost increases. Shipments declined a modest 1% in the quarter, were varied across markets. On the one hand, we saw solid growth in our key Southeastern markets, where we have the most attractive aggregate footprint. We were pleased with the rebound of sales in California after a very wet first quarter. On the other hand, weather continued to be a challenge in Texas. Remember, softer residential activity weighed on most markets. All geographies benefited from the continued strong underlying price environment. Our mixed adjusted sales price improved 15% in the quarter.

Attractive price growth should continue to drive improvement in our unit profitability as we progress through the back half of this year and into next year. In asphalt, cash gross profit nearly tripled from the prior year to $66 million, cash unit profitability improved over $10 a ton. Volume growth of 16%, price improvement of 9%, lower liquid asphalt costs all contributed to these favorable results. Gross margin improved almost 1,200 basis points. Concrete cash unit profitability improved by 24% in the quarter, this is despite lower volumes that were impacted by the slowdown in residential construction activity. Prior year concrete segment benefited for the contribution of the now divested New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania concrete operations. Now, starting with residential, let me provide a few thoughts about each end market.

To date, the impact of the slowdown in residential activity has not been as significant as most of us initially feared. Recent permits and starts were showing that some areas have reached the bottom, and the sentiment among homebuilders is much improved. These trends, along with the solid underlying fundamentals for residential demand growth, such as low inventories, favorable demographic trends, and employment growth in our markets, suggest that single-family demand will bottom in the second half of this year and then start recovering thereafter. In the private, non-residential construction segment, starts remained at healthy levels, with particular strength in large manufacturing and industrial projects. Our strong Southeastern footprint and logistics innovation efforts are making us a supplier of choice on many of these projects.

As an example, we have booked and are currently shipping to projects such as battery plants, electric vehicle manufacturing facilities, LNG facilities, and large warehouse parks. On the public side, demand is unfolding largely as we expected. Funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is beginning to flow through, and the pipeline is building, with trailing twelve-month highway starts up over 20%. 2024 state budgets are at very healthy levels, and internally, our bookings and backlog reflect this increased activity. The level of this year's shipments will depend upon how quickly this increased activity converts to shipments. We expect accelerating growth into next year and continued growth for the next several years. Trending twelve-month other infrastructure starts are also up over 20%.

In addition to significant IIJA funding for water, energy, ports, and shipments, strong state and local revenues support growth in non-highway investment. Based on the improved private demand backdrop, our first half shipment, and our first half shipments, we now expect aggregate volumes to decline between 1% and 4% in 2023, as compared to our initial expectations of a decline between 2% and 6%. Of course, regardless of the demand environment, our focus is to consistently improve unit profitability and grow earnings in order to create value for our shareholders. We're well positioned to do exactly that this year and deliver approximately 20% year-over-year improvement in both our cash gross profit per ton and Adjusted EBITDA. Now I'll turn the call over to Mary Andrews for some additional commentary on our second quarter and an update for 2023 outlooks.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Thanks, Tom, and good morning. Our strong operational performance through the first 6 months in this year exhibits the benefits of our strategic focus on enhancing our core. We have improved our Adjusted EBITDA margin by 350 basis points year to date through a combination of gross margin expansion and disciplined SAG cost management. This operational execution and resulting cash generation have allowed us to deploy capital toward each of our long-standing priorities, to improve our return on invested capital, and to maintain the strength of our investment-grade balance sheet. Over the last 12 months, we have invested $677 million in maintenance and growth capital, including strategic greenfields. Additionally, we have deployed $340 million for acquisitions, and we've returned $271 million to shareholders via a combination of dividends and share repurchases.

We have improved our return on invested capital by 110 basis points on a trailing twelve-month basis. We have reduced our leverage on a net debt to adjusted EBITDA basis to 2x at June 30, 2023, from 2.5x at June 30, 2022. We are well positioned to execute on our strategic objectives of further enhancing our core and also expanding our reach. Talent and technology are critical to achieve our business objectives, and we continue to invest in both while remaining focused on further leveraging our SAG cost. Trailing twelve-month SAG expenses as a percentage of revenue have improved by 50 basis points. Now, let me shift to the updates to our full year guidance.

As Tom mentioned, we now expect to generate between $1.9 billion and $2 billion of Adjusted EBITDA in 2023, a 17%-23% improvement over the prior year. Our revised outlook results from the update to our aggregates volume expectations that Tom described, in addition to the momentum in our asphalt business. With our non-aggregates businesses now in margin recovery mode, we expect to generate approximately $295 million of cash gross profit from our downstream businesses, with 50%-55% of the total expected from asphalt and 45%-50% of the total expected from concrete. We continue to expect to spend between $600 million and $650 million on maintenance and growth capital.

Additionally, we expect to spend approximately $200 million on opportunistic purchases of strategic reserves in California, North Carolina, and Texas, three important markets for Vulcan Materials. Because reserves are critical to our long-term success, our land portfolio is extensive and a strategic focus for us. We take a disciplined approach to securing high-quality reserves, the timing of which often depends on a combination of availability, alternative uses of cash, and tax efficiency. We manage the entire life cycle of our land to create maximum value for the business, for our shareholders, and for our communities, putting land to work both before and after mining.

Our excess properties, once completely mined and often reclaimed to their highest and best use, can generate significant value, such as the 2021 sale of previously mined property in Southern California that was reclaimed for commercial and retail development and sold for over $180 million. Of course, the timing of buying and selling land can be uneven, but our focus is on the strategic management of our land portfolio. All other aspects of the full year guidance, as reaffirmed or updated in May, remain unchanged. I'll now turn the call back over to Tom for some closing remarks.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Mary Andrews. In closing, I want to thank and congratulate our teams on an outstanding performance in the first half of this year, and I want to challenge them to remain focused on our Vulcan Way of Selling and Vulcan Way of Operating disciplines, so that we can continue to compound improvements and drive value for our shareholders. Most importantly, we will remain committed to each other, and to keeping each other safe. Now, Mary Andrews and I will be glad to take your questions.

Operator (participant)

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your touchtone phone. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star two. As a reminder, please limit yourself to one question. Once again, that is star one to ask a question. We will pause for a moment to allow questions to queue. The first question today comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Trey Grooms (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning, Mary Andrews and Mark. Nice work in the quarter.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Trey. Good to talk to you.

Trey Grooms (Managing Director)

Likewise. I guess I wanted to touch on the guide, specifically, you know, the increase in your, in your volume outlook for the year. Tom, I know you touched on some things, maybe from a high level, but could you maybe go into a little bit more detail on the primary drivers there? You know, especially as you kind of look on the, on the private side, on res and private non-res. Is that adjustment that you've made here for the full year, you know, based more on what you've seen in the results here to date, or an improvement in the outlook for the balance of the year? Thank you.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

I think the answer to the, the last part of that is I'd say both. You know, we had a, we had a strong start. I think things are looking better than what we would have thought at the beginning of the year. You know, volume in the quarter was only down 1%. It was a great recovery in California, where we had... You know, we had a big washout in the first quarter. Texas was, was wet in the first quarter, it was wet in the second quarter, causing shipments to be down year-over-year. You know, interesting in the second quarter, the Southeast was, was also wet. After those wet days, we're seeing a faster recovery in these markets.

I mean, the volumes go up as soon as it dries out, volumes pop, and so that's, that's good news for, for, for all of us. The private demand has been stronger than we anticipated. Both single family and multifamily shipments have held up better than I think our original projections. Non-res has also been better, as we said, driven by the heavy side. That's why we raised our guidance to -1% to -4%. Highways, I think, finishes the year about where we thought, low single-digit. We got really, you know, backlogs and bookings are growing, so you know, we're really building to 2024. At the end of it, the private side was just stronger, has been stronger, will be stronger than we originally anticipated.

Trey Grooms (Managing Director)

Got it. Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Garik Shmois (Managing Director)

Oh, hi. Thanks. Just wanted to piggyback on Trey's question with respect to the volume outlook. Wondering, you know, if you could speak a little bit more just to the light non-res side of the equation, recognizing, you know, that the heavy piece has been strong. Are you seeing any, any change in trend there? Also, you know, highways are, it sounds like as expected, you know, this year. Just curious, you know, if there's any visibility to what kind of growth we might anticipate into 2024.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

I'll take non-res first. As I said, it's been a lot better than we thought. It's really driven by, as you would expect, warehouses, distribution center, and now we've got the heavy industrial projects coming on, which have been very helpful. You know, I would say a little bit of risk in geographies in some sectors next year, as we've seen maybe some slowing in starts in Texas in warehouses. That said, if you look at that segment, the warehouse segment, in some of our stronger markets like, or strong markets like Georgia, Florida, California, Arizona, we're still, still seeing growth in starts and warehouses in those markets. A little bit mixed bag on warehouses.

I'd say other really good news in non-res is that we continue to see the big growth in the heavy industrial projects in our footprint. These projects carry, carry substantial volume needs. We have, I think, 11 of these, the big projects that we've already booked. Most of them we're already shipping on. They'll carry out through 2024. On top of that, we're currently bidding on a number of projects that, as you know, won't ship till 2024, 2024, 2025. In this sector, geography really does matter. You know, better growth in non-res than I think we originally expected. Oh, I'm sorry. Your, your second question was on highway demand. It's really a matter of timing. We're seeing, we're seeing a lot of growth in, as we're seeing growth in bidding.

The funding, as you know, the federal side, the state side, and the local side is very good. Highway lettings continue to build. Our bookings and our backlogs in highways continues to build. As you know, what we're bidding today and what we're booking today will, will ship in 2024. Again, low single digits in this sector in 2023, but it's setting up very well for 2024 and 2025 and 2026.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Stanley Elliott with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Hi, Stanley.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Morning, Stanley.

Stanley Elliott (Managing Director)

Hey, Tom Hill, Mary Andrews Carlisle, good morning. Thank you for the question. Could you guys talk about the pricing environment? You mentioned, you know, pretty broad-based momentum through the first half of the year. You did leave the pricing guidance unchanged. You know, is that regional mix? Is it, you know, maybe some timing? To what level are you guys, you know, thinking about second price increases and maybe even how that carries off into 2024?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I, I would tell you that the pricing in 2023 is unfolding as we thought it would. Prices were up 15% in the quarter. We expect them to be up 15%. That carried through the full year. I think you gotta step back and remember, the sequence in pricing was very different between 2022 and 2023. In 2023, as we told you, we went out much higher, much earlier than we did in 2022. We, we've gotten more price in 2023. We got more price in 2023, and we've gotten it earlier. If you, if you kinda look at, a good reference would be slide 5 in, in that deck. If you looked at 2022, the full year, year-over-year, from January 1 to December 31st, we went up $1.53.

From the beginning of this year till the end of June for 2023, we're already up $2.28. You know, it is compounding. It is much faster, much higher. Second half price increases, while they were mixed, will only help that. I'd tell you, they're more, they really are really a good setup for 2024, we'll continue this momentum. The reason why is we, the momentum is very good, as you know, but demand is looking better. The private side is better, the public side is growing. All of us in the sector have very good visibility to a more positive demand picture, and our customers, I would tell you, continue to be quite confident. I feel good about the momentum.

We're right now planning our January 1, January 1 price increases, which will go out in a few months. I would expect us again to go out higher earlier than we did. One point to this, though, I think it's really important, is our ultimate goal is to take that price to the bottom line. That's, that's, that's, that's really important that we continue that unit margin expansion. We're up low 20s in the 1st quarter, low 20s in the 2nd quarter. We expect that to continue for the next few quarters. That is a really important number. We get there in the 2nd half of the year, a little different, probably a little as a percentage-wise. We got tougher comps on price, easier comps on cost. We continue that low 20s margin expansion.

Stanley Elliott (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks so much, blessingf.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Morning, Mike.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Morning.

Mike Dahl (Managing Director)

Morning. Thanks for taking my question. I had a question on the downstream businesses. It's nice to see the start of the recovery, and you're referencing now you're in margin recovery mode. You took up the guide for this year. You know, when I take a step back and look at kinda your legacy business, combined with the previous U.S. Concrete legacy business, it seems like there would be still, like, quite a bit more work or runway left on what, you know, quote-unquote, "normal" would be in downstream. Just wanted to get your thoughts on that in terms of timing. Should we be thinking that, that, you know, your, your combined businesses could, could be, like $400 million instead of $295?

I'm not saying, you know, this year or next, but is that, is that the right normal to be thinking about, or how should, how should we frame that?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I, I think we were very encouraged that this quarter we had unit margin growth in all 3 product lines. You know, we battled that a little bit in asphalt a couple, for a year or two, and then we, you know, had to catch up. We said we'd catch up this year in concrete, we got it in the second quarter. I'll take the product lines kinda 1 at a time. Really strong quarter for asphalt. You know, gross margins were up. They were at $66 million. They were $20 million, like $26 million last year. Volumes were up 16%, in spite of wet weather in Texas. California and Arizona, asphalt volumes were really strong after, you know, tough, tough first quarter 'cause of rain. Prices were up 9%, and our liquid costs were down.

You know, great, great quarter in asphalt. We told you guys we would continue to grow this margin, and we are, so really encouraged by that. You know, that will only get better as you see the funding from IIJA and local and state funding go to work in the public sector. Ready-mix, you know, we had a really tough first quarter, slow start to the year, where we got, you know, really blown up with weather. We recovered. I thought the team there did a really nice job recovering rapidly in the second quarter, and it was really driven by unit margin expansion. On a same-store basis, our volumes were down actually 11%, a combination of rain in Texas and, you know, impact of single-family demand.

Prices were up 10%, and unit margins were up 24%. We said we'd get back to growth mode in ready-mix. I think we are, and I think we'll continue that recovery. I'm really proud of the ready-mix team's recovery and the asphalt team's continued performance in those product lines.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Yeah, Mike, just on a sort of, you know, longer term horizon, I think, you know, in the ready-mix business, we, we still think that low double-digit gross margins is, is where we, you know, need to be. So if you look at where, we, we saw, you know, great recovery in the second quarter. If you look at where we are in a trailing 12, as you said, we still have runway ahead of us, and that's the margin expansion that we're looking forward to going forward. Similarly, in the asphalt business, you know, we've sort of long said high single digit, you know, maybe low double digit, long-term gross margins in asphalt.

We've, you know, hit 10% on a trailing 12-month basis, and I, I think with where we are right now with the pricing environment and the demand environment ahead of us, you know, we, we can still see some expansion there as well, but would, you know, still think of high, high single digit, low double digit over, over the long term.

Mike Dahl (Managing Director)

Great. All right. Thanks, folks.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please go ahead.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Good morning.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Good morning.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Hey, just, just following up on margins. You know, I think you previously pointed to cash costs up high single digits year-over-year this year. I'm just wondering, is that still a fair expectation? You know, I think costs were up a little bit more than that in 2Q. You talked about, you know, comps getting easier in the second half. Just any kind of further detail in terms of, you know, the cadence from 3Q to 4Q, and if there's any sort of, you know, good guys or bad guys from a cost perspective that we should, you know, especially keep in mind for the second half?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, you know, we're getting better at the area costs, but they're still high. They were up 99% in the quarter. You're really feeling the impact of the inflationary pressures on parts and services. You know as we said, comps get easier throughout the year. Our guidance is the high single, which would put us in kind of mid for the balance of the year. Parts and service costs continue to plague us. We also have issue challenges with parts delivery, which hurts our efficiencies. That also is getting better. I think we do had a good guy in the quarter of diesel, which was probably an impact around $25 million. Our operating efficiencies continue to improve and will help us offset some of this.

We, we guide you for the full year to high single digits, which would put us kind of mid in the back half of the year, but comping over a lot easier numbers.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Yeah, and Anthony, you know, and I think, you know, most important is it has been a challenging couple of years with inflationary pressures, certainly, but you know, aggregate is a price cost winner and our gross margin on a trailing 12-month basis, returning to expansion in the second quarter, what was great to see. We've got a good runway ahead of us on that, and, you know, as Tom highlighted earlier, still expect, you know, low 20% growth this year in our cash gross profit per ton.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Okay, that, that's very helpful. Maybe just on labor, are you seeing any change there? maybe not in terms of, you know, wage rate or dollar, but, you know, in terms of availability of labor that's maybe helping you or hurting you this year?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

It's, it's still tight. I think The labor market has gotten better from our perspective. I think we've also gotten better at retention, and how we handle that. still a challenge, but much improved from where it was over the last couple of years.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Okay, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jerry Revich (Managing Director)

Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Jerry.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Thank you.

Jerry Revich (Managing Director)

Tom, Tom, Mary Andrews. I'm wondering if you could just talk about how you're thinking about pricing for 2024. It feels like, you know, one, one of the big lessons learned for the industry from 2022 is to price for a higher level of inflation, you know, and, you know, if inflation's lower, just get the benefits of that. How are you thinking about the magnitude of those January 1 price increases, Tom, that you spoke about versus the historical, you know, 4%-5% CAGR that you and the industry have delivered, given, you know, the backdrop that we've seen, you know, over the past 18 months?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

As I said, I think we got a lot of momentum going with this, and this, the, the, the private side of demand on this being better is helping that. Everybody's got good visibility to the public side. I think that if you go out there and talk to the segment, to the construction materials and construction segment, people are feeling a lot better about the future than maybe we were 6 months ago, and you can see more of the demand. That, that, that positive sentiment, the momentum on pricing and better visibility of demand, all are good set up for price. As far as magnitude, we're working on that right now, but our strategy last year was to go out higher on January 1.

I thought that worked very well, and I think I wouldn't see us straying from that strategy as we look to 2024.

Jerry Revich (Managing Director)

Thanks.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Tyler Brown with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Good morning.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Good morning.

Tyler Brown (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, Mary Andrews. I'm a little unclear on the CapEx. I think CapEx is expected to be $600-$650, but does that include the $200 million in land purchases, or will that be on top of it? Maybe I'm missing it, but those maybe flow on the acquisition line on the cash flow statement. I'm just not sure. Then just, Tom, any color on the M&A pipeline? Thanks.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Yeah. Tyler, to, to clarify, the, the $200 million, that we're planning to spend on strategic reserves is in addition to the $600 million-$650 million. It will show up as PP&E as it is, it is land. I think you're thinking about it right, in terms of it being, you know, more of an opportunistic, strategic, you know, acquisition type opportunity. I'll let Tom hit M&A.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I would, I would simply describe, you know, the, the acquisition with the improving picture and clarity to the private's demand, and it probably look a little better than maybe we thought. I would expect that to improve the, the, the M&A pipeline. We've got, you know, we always have a couple we're working on, but strategic bolt-ons, but I would think this will, this will, this will help the pipeline.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director)

Yeah. Hey, good morning. I wanted to follow up on the strategic, the strategic cash uses. talking about property purchases, is this because of opportunistic, you know, availability, or is this, you know, a need to restore reserves? just some color there. similarly, just wondered if you would comment on the first share buyback since the pandemic and what that might illustrate for your future plans.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

I think we'll split that question. I'll take the land piece. You're exactly right, it is opportunistic. So a lot of times these are when they come up, much like both on acquisition, and that's both for, you know, but buying reserves, but also, you know, both buying reserves and, and selling land are going to be lumpy by nature. You heard Mary Andrews, I think it was in 2021, where we sold $180 million worth of land. It, it, it is, it comes when it comes. It's hard to plan. Sometimes you can, most of the time you can't. I will tell you, I'm very pleased with the reserves we got. They were primarily in California, Texas, and North Carolina. Glad to get them.

Good use of capital and and pleased with the team's effort on that.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Yeah, in terms of, you know, share repurchases, returning excess cash to shareholders, you know, through repurchases, has been part of our, you know, long-standing capital allocation priorities. We, you know, believe appropriately following reinvesting in the business, through operating and maintenance CapEx, after growing the business and, and returning cash through the dividend. With attractive cash generation, and slower M&A in the first half of the year, we repurchased $50 million of shares in the second quarter. Really, our capital allocation decisions in the back half of the year will, you know, just follow our, our same disciplined approach.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director)

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Hi, Phil.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Good morning.

Phil Ng (Managing Director)

Hey, guys. Congrats on the strong quarter.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Phil Ng (Managing Director)

My question is your guidance for average volumes. You're calling for it to be down, call it 1%-4%, and you're only down modestly in 2Q. With housing bottoming, and you're calling out pretty good momentum on the infrastructure and heavy commercial side, with, frankly, easier comps in back app, it feels kind of conservative. Any one-offs that we should be mindful of? When we look out to 2024, Tom, you're talking about how you're seeing momentum building on infrastructure and heavy on the industrial side. Any color, how to think about the growth profile in those two end markets when we kind of look out to 2024? Thank you.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I think, you know, if you look at the kind of the upside, downside to our guidance, the low side, the -4, would tell you that single family shipments would have to fall off worse than we've seen. I think we're seeing kind of the bottom in single family. And I, I think that it gets better for hopefully it get better for 2024. On the high side, if to the -1, we'd have to see a little more volume. Highway, highway some of our projects would have to start up a little, a little faster. It could happen, and that's why we got the range where we do. I, I do think that, the, the, the heavy piece is going to help us in the second half.

I think it's going to be more help in 2024 on the, on the, on the heavy industrial.

Phil Ng (Managing Director)

Is there a way to think about how that growth profile is going to look next year? I mean, low single digits for infra. Is that like a mid to high single-digit growth story next year?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

On other infrastructure, you mean?

Phil Ng (Managing Director)

Just infrastructure in general, right? I mean, Tom, you're talking about low single digit growth this year, right? When we look out to 2024, with all the lettings and then bidding actively, flowing through, is that like a mid-single digit growth or high single digit growth?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

I, I think it's too early to call. It's, it's-- we just got to see more. I would, I would address that we haven't talked about the non-highway infrastructure is also looking very good. Like, like highways, you know, the local, state, and federal funding is extremely healthy, and has IIJA in it. Starts in the, in the, in the other non-highway infrastructure were up, in trading six months was up 18%, in trading three is up 20. You know, good for 2023, probably again, low single digit, but much better for 2024.

Phil Ng (Managing Director)

Okay. Thank you.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead.

Brian Biros (Senior Analyst)

Hey, good morning. This is actually Brian Biros on for Kathryn. Thank you for taking my question.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Sure.

Brian Biros (Senior Analyst)

It's just on the asphalt business. Can you just touch a little bit more on the performance there? Maybe the volume growth specifically, just kind of what projects are you seeing come to market in that business? If it's more repair work, or maybe it's more new work coming down the pipeline. Thank you.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

As far as the paving, is both. You're seeing both new and, and recovery. I mean, and, and overlays. I was pleased with the volume growth because we had a lot of rain in Texas, which is a big asphalt. Flip side of that is California and Arizona probably had some catch up from the first quarter, which we just didn't do much at all. I am, I am very pleased with the pricing performance and the unit margin performance. I, I think, you know, a, a really good start to the year in asphalt. We're back in unit margin growth mode and the, you know, the, the growth in, in funding for highways is only going to help this product line.

Brian Biros (Senior Analyst)

Thank you.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Adam Thalhimer with Thompson Davis. Please go ahead.

Adam Thalhimer (Director of Research)

Hey, good morning, guys. Great quarter.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Adam.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Hey, thank you.

Adam Thalhimer (Director of Research)

Tom, I think you characterized the midyear price increases as mixed. Why was that? I, I think there was hope a month or two ago it might be better. Does that bode well for, for January increases next year?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. Remember, as I said, the sequencing from 2022 to 2023 was very different. We intentionally went out much higher, much earlier in, in 2023. Kind of as expected, the midyear was successful in some markets, it was successful in some market segments. It'll have a, it'll have a little bit of an impact on 2023, but it's, it's gonna have a much larger impact on 2024, and that's simply a matter of timing from, timing from project pricing to shipment, and also maybe some backlogs. It does impact 2024. I don't think it slows any momentum for January 1 price increases. Again, we'll that strategy of high early worked really good in 2023, and we'll carry that strategy towards 2024. That it's I would tell you as as expected.

Adam Thalhimer (Director of Research)

Good. Thank you.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Keith Hughes with Truist. Please go ahead.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director)

Thank you.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Keith.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director)

... Give us an update. How are you doing?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Good.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director)

Give us an update on the situation in Mexico with the quarry there, and, you know, the process, any sort of, any sort of movement at all.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

You know, the, the short answer is the same, no news. We've got the NAFTA claim. We'll have the final hearing on that, on that, on the NAFTA tribunal this year. We should have a result of that in 2024. We feel very good about our position, we feel very good about our case, we feel very good about the evidence, but, you know, we'll finish the, the legal proceedings this year and, and have a, have a final ruling in 2024.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director)

What would be the best case scenario if you're successful on that?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

I think that we get a large check and because of the shutdown of our business. The magnitude of that, we can't disclose because we have a confidentiality agreement with the tribunal.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director)

Understand. Thank you.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from David MacGregor with Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

David MacGregor (President and Founder)

Yeah, good morning, everyone. Tom, nice quarter. Wanted to maybe just ask a little bit on the guidance, you talked about the first quarter being wet in California, Texas in the second quarter. What's your sort of best estimate of the carry forward tons into the second half due to the disruptive first half weather?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

I, I think, I think I think you saw that in California and Arizona in the quarter. You probably will have some of that in the, in the, in the third quarter in Texas. As I said earlier, what I'm impressed with is we're seeing a lot speedier recovery after wet days in our markets, which tells me that our, our, the firepower of our contractors is getting much better. I'm sure it is because of the, of the work that they got coming out of, from, from all the public funding. I think maybe a little bit in Texas. Everybody else, I think you don't, you don't see a lot of carry forward because they've been able to catch up pretty quick.

David MacGregor (President and Founder)

Thanks very much.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Michael Dudas (Partner)

Good morning, Mary Andrews, Mark, Tom.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

Good morning.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Good morning.

Michael Dudas (Partner)

Tom, as you've provided some very helpful observations on, on expectations for second half of the year in 2024, but if you're gonna isolate either better than expected pricing, better than expected cost, or better than expected volume as we maybe exit 2023 into 2024, what would you, what would you point towards? Or maybe all the above?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

As we, you're saying as we go from 2023 to 2024?

Michael Dudas (Partner)

Yeah, as we, as we get through the second half of the year, as results come through, your expectation would have been getting to year-end, like, say, the high end of your EBITDA range, or would it be better pricing, better cost utilization and execution, or better volumes?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

I would tell you, we probably have the best shot at, at highway work coming on a little faster than maybe we expected. As, you know, the, the, the, the flip side of that is obviously that if you see a bigger slowdown on, on, more slowdown on res, which at this point, we don't think it's gonna happen, unless we'll take them one at a time. On pricing, I, I think, you know, I think we've got it about right, how we got it, because we've, we've, we've got a little bit in the, in the midyear, but it's gonna flow through in 2024. The cost piece, I think, again, you know, we've got to be mid-single digits at the end of the year, and, and I think that between efficiencies and costs, we get there.

I guess at the end of the day, if I had to pick one, I would probably pick the volume piece of that.

Michael Dudas (Partner)

Excellent. Thank you, Tom.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Brent Thielman with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Brent Thielman (Managing Director)

Hey, great, thanks. Hey, Tom, and nice to see the continued improvement in the aggregates gross margin this quarter. I guess my question was more to the quarter and thinking about this going forward, but with the East under some pressure due to weather and some of those variables, was that actually a net negative to your reported profitability in that segment?

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

You said, you said... I couldn't understand what you, what you were pointing out as a possible negative.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

The, the, the East.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Oh.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (SVP and CFO)

You know, we, we, we do have very attractive margins in, in our, you know, East Coast business. I think while there was, you know, some, some wet weather, a lot of the, you know, strength in the private non-res and these large industrial projects is, is in those areas. So, you know, our volumes were, were quite healthy in those markets.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

I also would tell you that I think the East what I was, I was impressed with, we had wet weather in the East, but the recovery time when those thunderstorms would blow through, the next couple of days was impressive.

Operator (participant)

It appears we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to Tom for any additional closing remarks.

Tom Hill (Chairman and CEO)

Well, thank you all for your interest and, and your time and your support of Vulcan Materials Company. We look forward to talking to you throughout the quarter, and we hope that you and your families stay healthy and safe. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.