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Vulcan Materials CO (VMC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 beat consensus on revenue, EPS and EBITDA: revenue $2.29B vs $2.26B*, Adjusted EPS $2.84 vs $2.72*, and EBITDA ~$0.733B vs ~$0.719B*; margins expanded across segments .
  • Aggregates volumes rebounded (+12% YoY to 64.7Mt) with mix-adjusted pricing +5% (reported +3.5%) and cash gross profit/ton +9% to $11.84; gross margin rose 250 bps to 34.2% .
  • FY25 guidance narrowed: Adjusted EBITDA range $2.35–$2.45B (from $2.35–$2.55B in Q2); full-year shipments now ~+3% (from +3–5% prior) .
  • Management highlighted robust public infrastructure (IIJA tail) and accelerating private non-res (data centers) into 2026; unit costs fell 2% YoY and “Vulcan Way of Operating” tech deployment is driving structural efficiency gains .
  • Capital allocation remained disciplined: YTD operating cash flow $1.27B (+31% YoY), capex $235M in Q3 (FY guide ~$700M), net debt/TTM Adj. EBITDA 1.8x; $0.49 dividend declared Oct 10 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Broad-based earnings strength and margin expansion: Adjusted EBITDA up to $735M (+27% YoY) with margin +310 bps to 32.1% . CEO: “strong earnings growth and margin expansion through the first nine months of 2025” .
  • Aggregates execution: shipments +12% YoY; gross margin +250 bps to 34.2%; cash gross profit/ton +9% to $11.84; mix-adjusted pricing +5% (reported +3.5%) .
  • Demand backdrop improving: public awards up strongly; ~60% of IIJA funds still unspent; data center pipeline large and proximate to Vulcan operations (60M sq ft under construction; 140M sq ft proposed; ~80% within 30 miles) .

What Went Wrong

  • Pricing optics pressured by mix and acquisitions: reported ASP growth slowed to +3.5% despite +5% mix-adjusted; more base product and acquired markets weighed on reported price even as margins improved .
  • Higher interest burden: net interest expense rose to $55.3M from $38.4M in Q3 2024, moderating net income leverage despite strong operations .
  • FY25 guide narrowed lower at the high end and shipments trimmed to ~+3% (from +3–5%) as management acknowledged tough Q4 comps and residential softness into early 2026 .

Financial Results

Income Statement Snapshot (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($MM)$2,003.9 $2,102.4 $2,291.5
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)$580.6 $659.5 $735.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)29.0% 31.4% 32.1%
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$1.56 $2.42 $2.82
Adjusted Diluted EPS$2.22 $2.45 $2.84

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensus*ActualDelta
Revenue ($MM)$2,264.99*$2,291.5 +$26.5
Adjusted EPS$2.72*$2.84 +$0.12
EBITDA ($MM)$718.89*~$732.7*+~$13.8

Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Segment Performance (Q3)

SegmentRevenue Q3’24 ($MM)Revenue Q3’25 ($MM)Gross Profit Q3’24 ($MM)Gross Profit Q3’25 ($MM)
Aggregates$1,572.4 $1,792.1 $498.5 $612.1
Asphalt$381.1 $416.1 $60.2 $71.0
Concrete$174.4 $237.5 $6.5 $14.1

Aggregates KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Shipments (MM tons)57.7 64.7
Freight-Adj. ASP ($/ton)$21.27 $22.01
Gross Profit/ton ($)$8.63 $9.46
Cash GP/ton ($)$10.89 $11.84
Aggregates Gross Margin (%)31.7% 34.2%

Other KPIs and Cash/Leverage

MetricQ3 2025
SAG expense ($MM) and % of revenue$145; 6.3%
Cash from Operations (YTD, $MM)$1,270.0
Capex (Q3, $MM)$235
Net Debt / TTM Adjusted EBITDA1.8x
ROIC (TTM)16.5%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$2.35–$2.55B (Q2) $2.35–$2.45B (Q3) High end lowered
Aggregates ShipmentsFY 2025~+3–5% (Q2 call) ~+3% (Q3) Narrowed/trimmed
CapexFY 2025~$700M (Q2 call) ~$700M (Q3 call) Maintained; earlier $750–800M in Q1
DividendQ4 2025—$0.49/share declared Oct 10 Cash return event

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Pricing & MixQ1: ASP +7% (mix-adj +8.5%); unit cash cost −3% . Q2: ASP +5% (mix-adj +8%); mix/acquisitions weighed on reported price .Mix-adj +5% (reported +3.5%); more base and acquired mix; mid-single-digit pricing expected in 2026 .Reported pricing growth moderating on mix; underlying pricing intact; margins expanding.
Public InfrastructureAwards in Vulcan states up 22% by June; strong IIJA tail .Awards in Vulcan markets up 17% TTM; ~60% IIJA still to be spent .Strengthening; visibility improving into 2026+.
Private Non-Res/Data Centers$35B green-lit projects; 80% within 30 miles; signs of recovery .60M sq ft under construction; 140M proposed; ~80% within 30 miles; LNG/manufacturing booked .Accelerating, broadening beyond data centers.
ResidentialWeak; multifamily improving in >50% of markets .Single-family still a drag; potential bottom during 2026 .Still headwind near-term.
Costs/TechnologyVulcan Way: unit cash cost down; resilience despite weather .Unit cash cost −2% YoY; technology deployed across top 127 plants; “early innings” .Ongoing structural efficiencies.
Portfolio/M&AQuiet pipeline amid rates/tariffs; active list .Divesting Houston asphalt/construction services; agreement to sell CA ready-mix; redeploy proceeds .Sharpening aggregates-led focus; dry powder for M&A.

Management Commentary

  • “Adjusted EBITDA has improved 20 percent over the prior year, and margin has expanded 290 basis points on a year-to-date basis… These results demonstrate the compounding benefits of our strategic disciplines” – Tom Hill, CEO .
  • “Trailing 12 months aggregate cash gross profit per ton was $11.51, 27% higher than just two years ago… Our organic growth, coupled with disciplined M&A and portfolio management, positions us well” – Ronnie Pruitt, COO/Incoming CEO .
  • “Free cash flow has increased by 31% to over $1 billion and our conversion is 94%… plan to spend approximately $700 million for the full year [capex]” – Mary Andrews Carlisle, CFO .
  • “We expect continued strength in public construction activity and an improving private nonresidential outlook… mid-single digit growth in pricing [2026]” – Management Outlook .

Q&A Highlights

  • Pricing/mix: Reported pricing slowed on mix (more base, acquisitions) but unit margins still expanded; 2026 pricing seen mid-single-digit supported by growing highway and improving non-res backlogs .
  • Costs: No real inflation relief; cost progress driven by “Vulcan Way of Operating”; benefits expected to continue into 2026 as tools are adopted across plants .
  • Demand cadence: Q4 faces tough comps after favorable Q3 weather; shipments to grow ~3% for FY25; private non-res backlog conversion improving, with confidence projects will ship in 2026 .
  • Regional color: Southeast notable strength with higher unit margins; broad-based improvement in non-res across Vulcan footprint .
  • M&A/portfolio: Pipeline active though 2025 was quiet; focus remains aggregates-led; recent downstream divestitures redeployable into higher-return opportunities .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue $2.2915B vs $2.26499B consensus*, Adjusted EPS $2.84 vs $2.72*, EBITDA ~$0.733B vs ~$0.719B* – a clean beat across metrics (pricing/mix and costs drove incremental margins) .
  • Q4 2025 consensus*: Revenue ~$1.947B, EPS ~$2.16, EBITDA ~$0.607B. With FY25 EBITDA narrowed to $2.35–$2.45B and shipments ~+3%, estimates are likely to center near the midpoint, with outer-year (2026) revisions biased upward on public and data center momentum .

Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality beat with operating leverage: aggregates-led mix and disciplined costs expanded margins; look for continued unit margin gains as tech adoption scales .
  • 2025 guide prudent; 2026 setup improving: narrowed FY25 range but stronger visibility into public and private non-res supports mid-single-digit pricing and volume recovery in 2026 .
  • Watch mix narrative: reported ASP may lag mix-adjusted due to higher base share and acquired footprints, but profitability per ton is rising; focus on cash gross profit per ton trajectory .
  • Capital deployment: ~$1B+ FCF (TTM) and 1.8x net leverage provide capacity for aggregate-centric M&A; recent downstream sales align with returns-focused portfolio strategy .
  • Trading lens: beats and segment margin strength are supportive near term; any pullback on narrowed guide could present opportunity ahead of 2026 demand catalysts (IIJA tail, data centers) .
  • Monitor Q4 comps/weather and residential: single-family remains a drag into early 2026; sequential pricing optics may remain mix-affected, but unit margins should hold .

Additional Source Documents

  • Q3 2025 8-K and exhibit press release (full financials and segment details) ; PR mirror -.
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) -.
  • Q2 2025 8-K/call (trend analysis and prior guidance) - -.
  • Q1 2025 8-K (trend baseline and initial FY guide) -.
  • Dividend and CEO succession releases -.