Viper Energy Partners - Q2 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Viper Energy second quarter 2024 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Adam Lawlis, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Adam Lawlis (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, and welcome to Viper Energy's second quarter 2024 conference call. During our call today, we will reference an updated investor presentation, which can be found on Viper's website. Representing Viper today are Travis Stice, CEO, Kaes Van't Hof, President, and Austen Gilfillan, Vice President. During this conference call, the participants may make certain forward-looking statements relating to the company's financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance, and businesses. We caution you that actual results could differ materially from those that are indicated in these forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. Information concerning these factors can be found in the company's filings with the SEC. In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures. The reconciliations with the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release issued yesterday afternoon. I'll now turn the call over to Travis Stice.

Travis D. Stice (CEO)

Thank you, Adam. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for listening to Viper Energy's second quarter 2024 conference call. The second quarter was a strong quarter for Viper, with oil production growing roughly 4% quarter-over-quarter, and our cash available for distribution increasing by almost 9% over the same period. As a result of the production outperformance we have seen during the first half of the year, as well as an increase in expectations for the remainder of 2024, we have increased our production guidance for the full year 2024. In addition to updating our full-year guidance range, we've also provided guidance for Q3 that implies 1.5% growth relative to Q2, despite losing roughly 150 barrels of oil per day of quarterly production from the non-Permian assets we divested during the second quarter.

Overall, we continue to see strong activity levels across our acreage position and benefit from Diamondback's continued large-scale development of Viper's high concentration royalty acreage. In addition to the strong operational and financial results announced yesterday, we also announced that Viper's board of directors has approved an 11% increase in our annual base dividend, which highlights the board's belief in a sustainable and growing base dividend that can be maintained through the cycle. This belief and commitment to our shareholders is supported by Viper's strong balance sheet and durable cash flow profile. Relative to a year ago, when we last increased our base dividend, Viper has grown oil production per share by 14% while maintaining our cash margins and free cash flow conversion at around 80%.

Importantly, at current production levels, the annual fixed amount of the increased base dividend represents roughly 50% of the expected free cash flow at $50 WTI and is fully protected down to below $30 WTI. Bigger picture, the second quarter was also an important quarter strategically for Viper. Following our conversion to a Delaware corporation late last year, we were added to several notable indices during the second quarter, including the Russell 1000. In addition to the increased governance rights that this conversion provided for our shareholders, it has so far also delivered on our expectations of providing an expanded investor base and improved trading liquidity.

Fundamentally, we believe this conversion is just one step in the process of fully highlighting the advantaged nature of mineral ownership and the unique value proposition that Viper presents within the space, as well as in the energy complex more broadly. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. The first question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist. Go ahead. Your line is open.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director of Energy Research)

Good morning, all. Fantastic results. Travis, my first question is on your 2024 guided production bump. Specifically, you all seem to be expecting some really notable upside, especially when you capture that asset, some of the asset sales. So I'm just wondering, are you assuming much, you know, kind of on a go forward or with this, with this forecast, are you assuming much change in rig count, or can we assume the majority of this upside is coming from the operational efficiencies like we're seeing over at Fang?

Travis D. Stice (CEO)

Yeah, I mean, good question, Neal. You know, I think high level, as you think about when we start the year, we don't have as much visibility on non-Fang-operated properties, and as the year goes on, that visibility increases. You know, I think part of it is, you know, the efficiency piece. I think we always kind of expected a pretty big ramp in the back half of the year with some significant Fang wells or Fang pads coming on, and, you know, that gives us a lot of confidence in the third quarter. And then we're starting to see more, you know near-term activity, visibility, you know, into fourth quarter, you know, showing that, you know, we're going to keep growing this business organically in the, in the second half of the year versus the first half. Austin, you want to add anything to that?

Austen Gilfillan (VP)

Yeah, I mean, on the divestiture, as a reminder, that was doing about 450 barrels oil per day, and that divestiture closed May 1. So we got one month of contribution in the second quarter, but, you know, have updated the full year guidance to reflect the loss of that production contribution. And to Kaes's point, you know, we only guide to what we can see, so we have pretty good visibility to the back half of the year on the non-op side. On the Diamondback operated side, you know, halfway through the year, we've only had about 40%-45% of the net Diamondback locations turn to production. So we'll see a pretty significant ramp in activity and production there, as we kind of progress through the next two quarters.

Travis D. Stice (CEO)

You know, and Neal, you, since you listened to the Diamondback call, you heard the commentary around improved efficiencies, and that's obviously a direct read-through for operators that are developing Viper's minerals. But also, you heard Diamondback talk about these additional zones that we didn't formerly think were tier one zones at the Diamondback level, but now we're confident, you know, in the Upper Spraberry and the Wolfcamp D, that those zones are gonna, you know, start contributing as well, too. All of those are positive read-throughs, you know, for Viper. And again, I emphasize it in my prepared remarks, but, you know, with Viper having a, you know, below a $30 WTI breakeven price, that's a pretty, that's a pretty stunning, stunning statistic.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director of Energy Research)

Great. It's a great addition, that, Travis. And then my second question is just on capital allocation. Specifically, do you view Venom's payout, you know, maybe for today's options as, as opportunistic as, as Fang? Or, you know, given the, the mineral structure, are you more inclined to, to stick with the, the base and variable dividends?

Kaes Van't Hof (President)

Yeah, but I think the feedback from investors and our board has been to lean more towards the cash distribution model, you know, but also continuing to grow that base dividend. You know, so I think we moved this base plus variable model two years ago now, and it's been a positive development. You know, I think buybacks aren't out of the question at Viper, but they're probably, you know, third behind base dividend, variable dividend, and then buybacks, kind of the opposite at Diamondback. But, you know, there will be times of stress in this very cyclical industry where buybacks make a ton of sense, like when we started buying back shares at the end of 2020 and into 2021. But right now, we're very comfortable with the, you know, high distribution model.

Neal Dingmann (Managing Director of Energy Research)

Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. The next question comes from Betty Jiang with Barclays. Go ahead, your line is open.

Betty Jiang (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning. I actually have a follow-up. I would love to get more color on the visibility on the activity trends that you're seeing. We did note that the rig count on the mineral portfolio is down quarter over quarter, but the well backlog is still flattish. So clearly, we're hearing from the Diamondback call that there's an uptick in efficiency gains. But are you seeing more activity conversion from less equipment, basically, not just from the Diamondback operated assets, but also on non-op? Maybe ask another way, like if can you maintain this level of activity at a portfolio level, even at a lower rig count?

Austen Gilfillan (VP)

Yeah, that's a great question, Betty. I mean, we obviously track the rig count, but much more important for us is the work in progress and line of sight wells. And then when you look at, you know, what percentage of those are converted, and then also kind of the cycle times to being converted. So the rig count will fluctuate, you know, day by day, week by week, but we haven't really seen any change in the conversion rates, the cycle times. So with those work in progress and line of sight wells kind of staying at all-time highs, we still feel really confident that that's gonna lead to some production growth in the back half of the year and into the beginning of part of next year.

Kaes Van't Hof (President)

Yeah, I think the other thing to think about, Betty, is also net, net rigs, right? I mean, really look at, you know, you could have a lot of gross rig exposure, you know, at, you know, 0.5% interest across, you know, 100 wells. But, you know, if you think about the exposure we have to the Diamondback development plan, you know, that's where your net rigs and your net, work in progress wells that we have a, you know, differential line of sight to, you know, really give us an advantage.

Betty Jiang (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yep. No, that makes a lot of sense. And then just a follow-up on the Diamondback portion of the percentage of total activity. 2Q is a bit light on Diamondback side. So going forward, the backlog, Diamondback accounts for roughly 50% of the backlog. So, should we expect that to revert higher back to that 50% level?

Austen Gilfillan (VP)

Yeah, that's right. I kind of mentioned it on the previous question, but when we look at the Diamondback net completions expected for the year, only about 40%-45% of those were in the first half, and the remainder will be in the second half. And really, you know, you kind of get a little bit of that lumpiness with the large pad sizes. So I mean, right, right now, you know, we have a 24-well Diamondback pad with 9%-10% Viper NRI being turned to production.

So it's not always ratable, but, you know, we do see the big increase coming in the back half of the year, and it'll kind of revert to being more Diamondback growth driven, here now versus, you know, the first half having a lot of upside from the third-party piece.

Betty Jiang (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you for the color.

Kaes Van't Hof (President)

Thanks, Betty.

Operator (participant)

One moment for our next question. The next question comes from Paul Diamond with Citi. Go ahead, your line is open.

Paul Diamond (Director and Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning, all. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one for you is kind of think about portfolio optimization in coming quarters. I guess, where do you all see the kind of the right mix going forward, you know, at current and kind of looking in the next year as far as the breakdown between, you know, opportunities across, whether it's from within Fang or elsewhere in the private market or in the third party market?

Kaes Van't Hof (President)

Yeah, I mean, you know, I think we're trying to position ourselves to be, you know, the consolidator of choice in the Permian. I think you saw how we treated the non-core or non-Permian assets associated with the GRP deal. You know, we kind of monetized those very quickly for a quick gain. But, you know, really, I think generally, you know, the significant opportunities under Diamondback that would move the needle for Viper production are fewer and further between. You know, obviously, the potential drop-down from the Endeavor merger is the biggest and most visible. But on a Diamondback standalone basis, there's not, you know, a lot of Spanish Trail sitting out there.

But that's why we've kind of moved to this portfolio effect of looking at, you know, really good rock that we covet at the Diamondback level or the Viper level, with deals like GRP, and, you know, that's a deal that's. It was a billion-dollar deal that's tough to get done in the mineral space today. So I think we're positioning ourselves to be the buyer of choice for those large packages with a lot of visibility and a lot of upside in the basin that we know the best.

Paul Diamond (Director and Research Analyst)

Understood. Makes perfect sense. And, just a quick follow-up, talking about, you know, visibility into work in progress wells and cycle time evolution. How do you all see those cycle times have obviously been trending positively. How, I guess, how linear should we expect that to be in coming quarters and years, in your view?

Kaes Van't Hof (President)

Matt, we don't really model, you know, an improvement from here, so we're constantly watching operators kind of by county or even, you know, more precise geographic region than that, and then also looking at pad size as well to kind of think about what those permits will look like in terms of being converted to production and driving production growth. You know, so I wouldn't say that we've baked in an improvement in cycle times into our modeling. We've kind of kept the historical average. So I would say as long as we have a steady state of, you know, work in progress or line-of-sight wells, and cycle time is improved, then that might just be a little bit of upside to the guidance as we currently have it modeled out.

Paul Diamond (Director and Research Analyst)

Understood. Appreciate the clarity. Thanks for your time.

Operator (participant)

Stand by for our next question. The next question comes from Leo Mariani with Roth. Go ahead, your line is open.

Leo Mariani (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

I just wanted to follow up on some of your comments here, just around M&A. You talked about, obviously, the Endeavor drop-down being a big focus. Just wanted to kind of get a sense. I know the deal hasn't closed yet, but have you all been able to kind of, you know, do some prep work, you know, ahead of time to maybe try to get that, you know, deal to fruition a little sooner?

I know there's kind of a lot of land work that needs to kind of get done in the background, or do you really have to kind of wait for the deal to close to get on that? And then I guess just, you know, is there any kind of high-level expectation on, you know, when that might happen? Do you guys anticipate that, you know, that big deal could happen kind of by middle of next year?

Kaes Van't Hof (President)

Yeah, Leo, this has been a pretty restricted process, you know, with the FTC's second request at Diamondback, so we haven't been able to do much of anything at all. You know, we look forward to getting through that very quickly here and then hitting the ground running. You know, I think, you know, if history is any guide, we are, we don't move very slow at Viper or Diamondback, and so we'll get to work on it right away. And I think, you know, nothing's changed from our perspective on the sizing and potential opportunity set that we put in the merger deck at the Diamondback level.

Leo Mariani (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. No, that's helpful. And then, and is it fair to say, just based on your kind of prepared comments that you walked through on, on some of the M&A stuff, that, you know, that the smaller deals, just kind of the little stuff, has kind of been the more competitive, and it's really these, you know, really big deals that you might see out there that are third party and then, and kind of the, the drop-down here from Endeavor, that's the type of things we should expect, you know, Venom to focus on?

Kaes Van't Hof (President)

Yeah, I think certainly from an external perspective, that's what we're focused on. You know, we still try to get the little deals here and there, but, you know, I think you'd be shocked to see how many kind of $20 million-$50 million mineral funds there are that, you know, you never see on the outside. So, you know, those competitors are very aggressive on smaller deals.

They probably take a little more risk on undeveloped acreage and timing, and we kind of see our spot in the food chain as, you know, being the aggregator of those aggregators, and being able to, you know, come to an opportunity with, you know, a real amount of cash, real amount of market access, real amount of liquidity. So that's why we've been really trying to improve our liquidity and trading volume position over the last 12 months, and it's paid dividends for our unit holders.

Leo Mariani (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Kaes Van't Hof (President)

Thanks, Leo.

Operator (participant)

This concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Travis Stice, CEO, for closing remarks.

Travis D. Stice (CEO)

Thank you. This call this morning is concluded, and thank you for attending. If you've got any questions, please reach out. Thank you again, and have a great day.

Operator (participant)

This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.