WDAY Q2 2026: 100% Net New AI SKU Growth, Paradox Fuels Q3 Upside
- Robust AI Adoption and Integration: Executives highlighted that over 70% of customers already use Workday Illuminate and more than 70% of net new deals include an AI SKU, with net new AI SKUs growing 100% year-over-year. This strong AI traction supports a sustainable competitive edge by driving innovation and improving customer retention.
- Strategic Expansion into New Markets: The discussion underscored significant wins in international markets (Europe, Japan, India) and in government (with a dedicated Workday Government subsidiary). These sectors show solid momentum and provide diversification opportunities, strengthening long-term growth prospects.
- Acquisition and Enhanced Ecosystem: The acquisition of Paradox bolsters Workday’s recruiting suite with an AI-powered candidate experience, complemented by robust partner contributions (~20% of net new ACV). This deepened ecosystem positions Workday as a leader in integrated, end-to-end HR and financial solutions.
- Potential competitive disruption by AI startups: Despite management dismissing concerns, discussions highlighted market chatter about AI startups that could “create HCM software overnight,” suggesting that new entrants might disrupt traditional seat‐based models and erode Workday’s competitive edge.
- Macro headwinds in key segments: The Q&A revealed caution regarding the State and Local (SLED) and higher education segments, where reduced federal funding and state-level budget uncertainties could pressure growth.
- Reliance on early renewals and acquisition integration: Management’s reliance on elevated early renewals to bolster revenue growth and the integration of the newly acquired Paradox raise concerns about sustainability and execution risk if these factors do not continue as expected.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Subscription Revenue | Q3 FY 2026 | $2.16 billion, 13% growth | $2.235 billion, 14% growth | raised |
Professional Services Revenue | Q3 FY 2026 | $180 million | $180 million | no change |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Q3 FY 2026 | 28% | 28% | no change |
GAAP Operating Margin | Q3 FY 2026 | 20 to 21 percentage points lower | approximately 17-21 points lower | lowered |
CRPO Growth | Q3 FY 2026 | 15% to 16%, including 1 percentage point from tenant contracts | between 15-16% | no change |
Subscription Revenue | FY 2026 | $8.8 billion | $8.815 billion, 14% growth | raised |
Professional Services Revenue | FY 2026 | $700 million | $700 million | no change |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin | FY 2026 | 28.5% | 29% | raised |
GAAP Operating Margin | FY 2026 | 20 to 21 percentage points lower | approximately 17-21 points lower | lowered |
Capital Expenditures | FY 2026 | $250 million | $200 million | lowered |
Operating Cash Flow | FY 2026 | $2.75 billion | $2.85 billion | raised |
Non-GAAP Tax Rate | FY 2026 | 19% | 19% | no change |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Consistent AI Adoption & Innovation | Q1: Emphasized 25% of customer expansions involved AI and 100% YoY growth in net new AI SKUs. Q3: Highlighted 30% of expansions with AI solutions and unveiled Illuminate. Q4: Focused on AI’s ROI with new agents and strong ACV growth. | In Q2, Workday reinforced its leadership with over 70% of core customers using Workday Illuminate, 30% of deals including AI products, and strategic acquisitions like Paradox to enhance its AI suite. | Recurring emphasis with increased integration of strategic acquisitions and a stronger message of customer ROI. |
Macroeconomic and Currency Headwinds | Q1: Monitored headwinds in SLED and international markets with limited impact. Q3: Only hinted at increased deal scrutiny globally. Q4: Noted a $20M FX headwind and challenges in Europe despite solid U.K. and Germany wins. | Q2 highlighted ongoing monitoring of international markets with satisfaction in Europe and noted headwinds in the SLED segment due to funding uncertainties, maintaining a balanced view amid macro challenges. | Consistent monitoring with stable sentiment in Europe and emerging funding challenges in SLED, reflecting cautious but positive outlook. |
International Expansion and Government Market Opportunities | Q1: Reported strong wins in EMEA, APAC and significant federal focus with increased engagement. Q3: Noted strategic partnerships and major wins in Europe and APAC, plus a federal government focus. Q4: Emphasized growth in Europe and federal deals with DOE and DIA. | Q2 detailed robust international growth with key wins in EMEA, a first deal in Vietnam, and marked the launch of Workday Government to serve U.S. agencies, highlighting both market expansions and dedicated government initiatives. | Recurring focus with an added strategic layer in government markets via a dedicated subsidiary and continued international wins, indicating deeper market penetration. |
Partner Ecosystem Growth | Q1: Noted a 20% growth in partner impact and strong marketplace momentum. Q3: Reported 5x growth in the partner ecosystem and over 10% net new ACV sourced from partners. Q4: Emphasized growing partner contributions with increased ACV and new strategic collaborations. | In Q2, partners contributed over 20% of net new ACV, with innovation through new partnerships like DailyPay and expansion of initiatives such as Workday Wellness, reinforcing the ecosystem’s critical role. | Sustained robust growth with an increasing share of business driven by partners, underlining their expanding strategic importance. |
Acquisition Integration and Ecosystem Expansion | Q1: Highlighted Extend and strategic acquisitions to boost platform and ecosystem capabilities. Q3: Focused on ecosystem expansion via partnerships and platform programs, with less emphasis on acquisitions. Q4: Centered more on partner-led ecosystem expansion with limited acquisition discussion. | Q2 reintroduced a clear focus on acquisition integration by announcing Paradox and Flowwise to enhance their AI talent suite while also expanding partner-driven ecosystem initiatives. | Renewed emphasis on acquisitions to bolster AI capabilities, marking a shift from a predominantly partner-driven narrative to a blended strategy incorporating strategic integrations. |
Expansion into Medium Enterprise Markets (Workday Go) | Q1: Introduced Workday Go for medium enterprises with clearer pricing, packaging and faster deployment (60-day implementations). Q3 & Q4: No mention in Q3 and Q4. | Q2 reiterated its focus on the medium enterprise segment with Workday Go, highlighting strong momentum with full-suite purchases and a seasoned leader driving global expansion in this segment. | An emerging emphasis on a new market segment, with Workday Go transitioning from a recent introduction in Q1 to a more detailed and bolstered strategy in Q2. |
Financial Performance Stability and Revenue Recognition Variability | Q1: Reported 13% subscription growth, high retention at 98%, and noted variability due to tenant contracts. Q3: Achieved 16% growth, strong margins and consistency despite timing issues from strategic deals. Q4: Demonstrated 15–16% growth with early renewals and noted FX impacts. | Q2 showcased strong financial performance with 14% subscription growth, solid margins, robust backlog growth (up to 18%) and noted revenue variability mainly from early renewals and strategic acquisitions. | Consistently stable performance with minor expected variability; sentiment remains positive with robust growth and retention across all periods. |
Competitive Threats from AI Startups | Q1 & Q3: No specific discussion was made. Q4: Indirectly mentioned in the context of AI strategy and innovation focus. | Q2 directly addressed these threats, with the CEO calling the AI startup disruption narrative “completely overblown” and emphasizing Workday’s entrenched market position and customer trust. | A new explicit discussion in Q2; previous periods were silent or indirect. The sentiment is dismissive of the threat, showing increased confidence in Workday’s AI leadership. |
Customer Renewal and Upselling Challenges | Q1: Indicated 25–30% of expansions involved AI products with strong retention at 98%. Q3: Emphasized healthy renewal rates and significant upsell through AI, reporting 98% gross retention and robust customer satisfaction. Q4: Highlighted strong renewal visibility and proactive upselling, with over 30% expansions involving AI. | Q2 focused on early renewals driven by customer demand for new AI solutions, with renewals surpassing expectations and reflecting robust customer confidence. | A consistently positive trend with high renewal rates and effective upselling, now reinforced by strong early renewal activity driven by customer-led demand. |
Operating Cash Flow and Pipeline Stability Concerns | Q1: Reported strong cash flow with a 23% YoY increase and stable CRPO growth despite some macro monitoring. Q3: Maintained steady cash flow with some timing variability and expressed strong pipeline for Q4. Q4: Showed strong cash flow, significant backlog growth and addressed FX pressures. | Q2 reaffirmed healthy operating cash flow with 8% YoY growth, robust cash reserves, and a stable pipeline with consistent performance in key markets despite minor headwinds, underscoring execution strength. | A stable trend with strong operating cash flow and a consistent pipeline; the narrative remains focused on efficiency and predictability despite minor external pressures. |
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Paradox Strategy
Q: What drove the Paradox acquisition?
A: Management highlighted that Paradox complements Workday’s recruiting suite by delivering 75% reduction in time to hire and robust AI capabilities, expanding their market leadership in talent acquisition. -
Q3 Ramp Guidance
Q: What drives the Q3 sequential ramp?
A: They attributed the Q3 boost to Paradox’s contribution and timely delivery on long‐standing DIA contract milestones, reinforcing a strong near-term revenue outlook. -
Early Renewals Impact
Q: How significant were early renewals?
A: Early renewals, driven purely by customer demand for AI enhancements, notably lifted CRPO and helped improve revenue guidance, reflecting strong customer confidence. -
AI Disruption Concerns
Q: Is AI disrupting legacy SaaS?
A: Management dismissed AI disruption fears, noting that Workday’s entrenched market position and over 70% customer adoption of AI solutions counter such concerns. -
AI Adoption Numbers
Q: How fast is AI adoption growing?
A: They reported that more than 70% of new sales now include AI SKUs and highlighted over 100% year-over-year growth in some AI products, underscoring an accelerating trend. -
Macro Headwinds
Q: Are macro factors impeding growth?
A: While acknowledging mild headwinds in state and local education funding, management noted robust momentum in core markets—especially in Europe—mitigating broader macro risks. -
Partner Channel Growth
Q: How is the partner channel performing?
A: The channel has stabilized at about 20% of new ACV, delivering consistent growth and innovation contributions that are expected to eventually drive further total revenue growth. -
Commercial Trends
Q: How is the commercial business trending?
A: Management indicated that the medium enterprise segment, rebranded as Workday Go, is showing strong momentum by driving full-suite adoption, setting the stage for future growth. -
International Expansion
Q: Are international markets a growth driver?
A: They remain strong, with significant wins in the UK, Germany, Japan, and an active push into India demonstrating that Workday’s customer base and deal sizes abroad are competitive. -
Government Subsidiary
Q: Why form a government subsidiary?
A: Establishing Workday Government as a separate entity allows for a tailored, high-security cloud environment that enhances credibility with federal agencies and supports deepening AI initiatives. -
Notable Deal Wins
Q: What were the key deal wins?
A: Major wins included a significant competitive victory at the University of Virginia, a large financial upsell at Nationwide, and key go-lives with Salesforce, all reinforcing the strength of their integrated platform. -
AI Engagement Trends
Q: How is customer engagement with AI?
A: Customer interactions are robust, with record levels of activity in AI-powered offerings like Workday Illuminate and a highly active customer experience center driving tangible business outcomes.
Research analysts covering Workday Inc.