EPS

FY 2024

$4.80 – $4.90 " "

$4.80 – $4.90 " " "

no change

Long-Term EPS Growth Rate

Long-term

no prior guidance

6.5% – 7% " "

no prior guidance

Dividend payout ratio

Long-term

no prior guidance

65% – 70% "

no prior guidance

Capital Plan

2025–2029

no prior guidance

$28 billion "

no prior guidance

Load Growth

2025–2029

no prior guidance

1,800 MW "

no prior guidance

Regulatory uncertainty in Wisconsin rate cases

Settlements and timing discussed with new PSC chair, split commission votes, and AFUDC denial. " " " "

Confidence in final decision soon, no settlement. Commission considered balanced. "

Consistently mentioned; heightened optimism in Q3 about a balanced outcome.

Regulatory challenges in Illinois

Discussed Safety Modernization Program denial, appeals, and shifting $800M out of Illinois. " " " " " " " " " " " " "

Scaled back Illinois investment ($90M/year) due to ongoing program reviews and uncertain future of natural gas. " "

Topic consistently highlighted; continued cautious approach in Illinois.

Load growth from large expansions

Microsoft and other large expansions driving strong load forecasts. Past references to Eli Lilly and Amazon expansions. " " " " " " " " "

Cited 1,800 MW of incremental load, driven by Microsoft data center project and broader economic activity. " " " " "

Recurring theme; forecast increased from earlier estimates (1,400 MW).

Capital investments & rate base expansion

Previously at $23.7B focus, with expansions in regulated solar/gas and reallocation from Illinois. " " " "

Unveiled $28B plan (2025–2029), with $9.1B in renewables, $3.2B in transmission, aiming for 8.8% asset growth. " " " "

Consistent focus; plan size increased, emphasizing Wisconsin growth.

Earnings guidance & EPS growth outlook

Guidance repeatedly reaffirmed (2024: $4.80–$4.90). Consistent long-term growth target. " " " " " " " "

Reaffirmed 2024 guidance ($4.80–$4.90). Maintained 6.5–7% long-term EPS CAGR, aided by ATC ROE adjustment. " " " " "

Stable guidance; remains on track despite weather and regulatory factors.

O&M expense management & cost control

Prior calls cited improved O&M outlook (2–3% or 3–5% increase) due to cost control and mild weather. " " " " "

Not specifically detailed, higher O&M contributed to Q3 earnings drop. "

Less emphasis in Q3; previously a key driver of earnings beats.

Potential equity ratio increases (53.5%)

Previous references to filing for 53.5% in Wisconsin, but not yet modeled for added equity issuance. " " " " "

No new mention of raising equity ratio to 53.5%. Company detailed equity issuance plans ($2.7–$3.2B over 5 years). " "

Not discussed in current period; earlier filings indicated possible higher ratio.

Project delays (e.g., Delilah I Solar)

Delilah delayed 6 months by hail but targeted to finish by end of 2024. " " " "

Delilah on track for year-end completion; Maple Flats also on schedule. "

Delays mentioned earlier; now back on track.

One-time items (e.g., ATC ROE)

Prior quarters: No significant ATC ROE item mentioned except Q4 2023’s separate noncash charge in Illinois. " "

$0.05/share Q4 tailwind from ATC ROE adjustment to 10.48% offsets weather drag. " " "

New positive factor; helps mitigate weather impacts.

Point Beach PPA extension

Mentioned ongoing but not definitive. "

Constructive talks with NextEra, contract expirations from 2030 to 2033; update expected in 6 months. "

Continues to progress; details still not finalized.

Increasing load forecasts (1,400→1,800 MW)

Previously cited 1,400 MW with consideration for further bumps. " "

Officially raised to 1,800 MW of incremental capacity needs. " "

Forecast increased; driven by data centers and EVs.

Solar & renewables (300 MW w/PTCs)

Ongoing acquisitions in solar (High Noon, Delilah, Maple Flats). Emphasis on transitioning from coal. " " " " "

Expanding portfolio: 2,900 MW solar, 900 MW wind, 600 MW storage in new plan. Selling $100–$200M tax credits annually. " " " "

Major acceleration; robust pipeline with PTC-driven economics.

Redeployment of capital

Consistent theme of reallocating away from Illinois due to regulatory hurdles. " " " " " " " "

Scaling back Illinois ($800M fewer infrastructure dollars), focusing on Wisconsin utility growth. " " "

Essentially unchanged; continues pivot to friendlier jurisdictions.

Weakness in large C&I sales

Declines noted in Q4 2023 (-3.3% in WI) and Q1 2024 in metals/paper. " "

No mention in current period.

Topic not raised in Q3; previously a mild concern.

MISO expansion (Tranche 2)

Expected to be larger than Tranche 1; spending around 2030 or later. "

Likely beyond current 5-year plan; minimal near-term spending. "

Ongoing but mostly post-2029.

Potential settlement failures

Historically, negotiations timed post-staff audit. Chair open to stakeholder input. "

No settlement in WI rate case but management expects neutral-to-positive commission ruling. "

Still relevant; no settlement seen as not necessarily negative.

Decarbonization & sustainability

Emphasis on retiring coal, building solar & battery storage, plus leveraging IRA tax credits. " " "

$9.1B in renewables, LNG for reliability, 80% carbon reduction goal. " "

Continued prioritization; plan expanded in Q3.