Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered clean beats on revenue and EPS versus S&P Global consensus, while EBITDA was modestly below; 2025 EPS guidance was reaffirmed at $5.17–$5.27, assuming normal weather . EPS $0.83 vs $0.81* and revenue $2.104B vs $1.898B*, with EBITDA $0.840B* vs $0.864B* .
Management unveiled a materially larger 2026–2030 plan: $36.5B capex (+$8.5B vs prior plan) supporting asset base CAGR just over 11% and LT EPS CAGR of 7–8%, with growth skewing higher in 2028–2030 .
Load growth is increasingly data-center led (Microsoft and Vantage/Oracle) and underpinned by a proposed Very Large Customer (VLC) tariff (ROE 10.48–10.98%, 57% equity ratio), with a PSCW order expected by early May 2026—key regulatory catalyst .
Capital and funding roadmap is clear: ~$21B operating cash, ~$14B incremental debt, and ~$5B common equity plus additional hybrid securities over five years; dividend growth targeted at 6.5–7% with a 65–70% payout ratio, and a Q4 dividend of $0.8925 payable Dec. 1 was declared .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Revenue and EPS beats versus consensus, with rate base growth, favorable weather, and ATC equity earnings contributing; CEO: “We delivered another solid quarter, and we remain on track for a strong 2025.”
- Strategic growth visibility improved: $36.5B five‑year plan, asset base growth >11% CAGR, LT EPS growth raised to 7–8%, anchored by hyperscale data center demand in Wisconsin .
- Regulatory pathway for serving very large loads advancing: proposed VLC tariff with ROE 10.48–10.98% and 57% equity ratio; expected PSCW order by early May 2026 for June service—terms agreed with customers .
What Went Wrong
- EBITDA slightly missed S&P Global consensus despite top-line/EPS beats (actual $0.840B* vs $0.864B*), as higher depreciation and O&M offset positives .
- Expense pressure: depreciation and amortization up y/y (Q3: $373.4M vs $340.5M) and interest expense higher y/y (Q3: $223.6M vs $204.2M) .
- Corporate & Other earnings decreased $0.11 per share, driven by tax timing and higher interest expense—an area to monitor as the financing cycle accelerates .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance (actuals)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.864	$2.010	$2.104
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.76	$0.76	$0.83
Operating Margin %	20.6% (383.7/1,863.5)	20.2% (404.9/2,009.5)	21.4% (449.6/2,104.0)
Net Income Margin %	12.9% (240.1/1,863.5)	12.2% (245.4/2,009.5)	12.9% (271.3/2,104.0)

Notes: Q3 2024 included a $0.06 EPS charge for Illinois QIP disallowances; adjusted EPS was $0.82 for Q3 2024 (non-GAAP) .

Q3 2025 actual vs S&P Global consensus

Metric	Actual	Consensus*	Surprise*
Diluted EPS ($)	0.83	0.8105*	+0.02 (+2.4%)*
Revenue ($B)	2.104	1.898*	+0.206 (+10.8%)*
EBITDA ($B)	0.840*	0.864*	-0.024 (-2.8%)*

Estimates detail: EPS estimates (n=14); Revenue estimates (n=7); Target Price consensus $122.68 (n=17)*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Income statement components — Q3 YoY

Line Item ($USD Millions)	Q3 2024	Q3 2025	YoY
Operating Revenues	1,863.5	2,104.0	+12.9%
Cost of Sales	520.8	608.1	+16.7%
O&M	566.8	605.1	+6.8%
Depreciation & Amortization	340.5	373.4	+9.7%
Operating Income	383.7	449.6	+17.2%
Equity Earnings (ATC)	46.7	54.8	+17.3%
Interest Expense	204.2	223.6	+9.5%
Net Income to Common	240.1	271.3	+13.0%

KPIs — retail electricity deliveries trend (ex-iron ore mine)

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Retail electricity deliveries YoY	+2.9%	+1.0%	+1.9%
Weather-normal retail deliveries YoY	+0.7%	+1.1%	+1.8%
Small C&I electricity use YoY	+2.1%	+0.6%	+1.1%
Large C&I (ex mine) YoY	+1.1%	+0.8%	+2.5%
Residential electricity use YoY	+5.5%	+1.6%	+2.1%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$5.17–$5.27	$5.17–$5.27 (assumes normal weather)	Maintained
LT EPS Growth (CAGR)	2026–2030	6.5–7% “existing rate” for next few years	7–8% from 2026–2030 (based on 2025 midpoint)	Raised
5‑Year Capex Plan	2026–2030	Prior plan (baseline)	$36.5B (+$8.5B vs prior plan)	Raised
VLC Tariff Terms	Wisconsin	NA	Proposed ROE 10.48–10.98%; 57% equity ratio; order expected by early May 2026; service June	New detail
Dividend Policy	LT	Payout 65–70% of earnings	Payout 65–70%; dividend growth 6.5–7%	Maintained
Dividend/Share	Q4 2025	$0.8925 (Q2 rate)	$0.8925 payable Dec 1, 2025	Maintained
2026 Outlook Timing	2026	NA	2026 dividend plan and earnings guidance to be provided in December	Update

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Demand/Load growth	Retail electricity deliveries +2.9% (Q1), +1.0% (Q2); guidance reaffirmed in both quarters	Retail deliveries +1.9% (+1.8% weather-normal); data-center demand (Microsoft, Vantage/Oracle) a key driver	Strengthening, with hyperscale load now a central pillar
Long-term growth targets	No LT EPS target changes disclosed in PRs	LT EPS CAGR set at 7–8% (2026–2030); asset base growth >11% CAGR	Raised targets
Capital plan	No plan update in PRs	$36.5B plan (+$8.5B) across gen, T&D, batteries, renewables; ATC spend up $0.9B	Upwardly revised
Regulatory	Not highlighted in Q1/Q2 PRs	VLC tariff with fixed ROE (10.48–10.98%), 57% equity; PSCW order by early May 2026	Advancing
Point Beach PPA	Not discussed in PRs	Talks ongoing with NextEra; plan assumes no specific outcome; alternatives include dispatchable gas and renewables	Watch item
Illinois pipe retirement	Not detailed in PRs	Ramp to ~$500M per year by 2028; ~1,000 miles to replace; legislation not expected to be significant for WEC	Scaling up
Financing	Not detailed in PRs	~50% equity content for incremental capex; ~$5B common equity, ~$14B debt, plus hybrids; ample hybrid capacity	Defined funding cadence
Weather	Q2 cited warm start to summer aiding results	Weather +$0.03 vs normal; +$0.01 vs prior-year Q3	Modest tailwind

Management Commentary

Strategy and demand: “We continue to see major business building a future in our region… electric demand is expected to grow 3.4 GW between 2026 and 2030” with Microsoft and Vantage as anchors .
Capital and growth: “We expect to invest $36.5 billion… between 2026 and 2030… With this updated capital plan, we expect asset base growth at an average rate of just over 11% a year,” supporting “updated long term projected EPS growth of 7% to 8%” .
Regulatory construct: The VLC tariff is designed to meet very large customer needs “while protecting all of our other customers and investors,” with proposed ROE 10.48–10.98% and 57% equity ratio; PSCW order expected by early May 2026 .
Financing discipline: “Over the next five years, we expect cash from operations to be approximately $21 billion… approximately $14 billion… from incremental debt… [and] approximately $5 billion of common equity” .
Dividend: “We continue to target a payout ratio of 65% to 70% of earnings… We expect to grow the dividend at a rate of 6.5% to 7%” .

Selected quotes

CEO: “We delivered another solid quarter, and we remain on track for a strong 2025.”
CFO: “Rate base growth contributed $0.15 more to earnings… weather had a $0.03 favorable impact… partially offset by $0.06 from higher depreciation and amortization expense and $0.05 from higher day-to-day O&M.”

Q&A Highlights

Growth cadence and back-half acceleration: Annual EPS growth seen at ~7–8% in 2027, with 2028–2030 closer to 8% as projects enter service; execution pace and approvals drive shape .
Point Beach negotiations: Discussions with NextEra continue; plan does not assume a specific outcome. If not renewed, dispatchable gas and some renewables are likely alternatives; ample time through 2030/2033 expiries .
Illinois pipe program: Ramp consistent with prior messaging; ~$1.5B total in plan with ~$500M per year by 2028; pending legislation viewed as not significant for WEC .
Financing capacity: Billions of capacity for hybrids remain under ratings agency methodologies; common equity issuance cadence tied to capex (2026: ~$0.9–$1.1B) .
Data center scope: Current plan includes 2.1 GW in SE Wisconsin (incl. Microsoft) and 1.3 GW at Vantage/Oracle’s Lighthouse campus; additional land could support >2 GW future upside beyond plan .

Estimates Context

EPS: $0.83 vs $0.8105 consensus* (+$0.02, +2.4%); 14 estimates. Actual from company filings .
Revenue: $2.104B vs $1.898B consensus* (+$0.206B, +10.8%); 7 estimates. Actual from company filings .
EBITDA: $0.840B* vs $0.864B consensus* (−$0.024B, −2.8%)*.
Street positioning: Target price consensus $122.68 (n=17)*; 2025 EPS guidance reaffirmation reduces near-term estimate risk .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may adjust

Modest upward EPS/Revenue revisions likely on operational beat and constructive load trend; however, EBITDA miss and higher D&A/interest could cap magnitude of upward EBITDA revisions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Clean EPS and revenue beats with maintained FY25 guidance should be well‑received; expense pressure (D&A, interest) bears monitoring as the investment cycle ramps .
The step-up to a $36.5B five‑year plan and a 7–8% LT EPS CAGR reframes the growth narrative for a traditionally defensive utility, with visible hyperscale demand drivers .
Regulatory clarity is a key catalyst: PSCW decision on the VLC tariff by early May 2026 underpins economics for very large loads without subsidization of other customers .
Funding plan is balanced and pre‑announced (~$5B common equity, ~$14B debt, hybrids), reducing financing overhang; 2026 common equity needs ~$0.9–$1.1B .
Data center optionality is meaningful: plan embeds 3.4 GW growth by 2030, with additional land positions potentially enabling further upside beyond the current plan .
Dividend remains a core pillar: 65–70% payout with 6.5–7% growth and Q4 dividend of $0.8925 declared—income support while growth accelerates .
Watch items: Point Beach outcome and timing, inflation/interest impacts on O&M and financing, and execution risk as capex ramps .

Appendix: Additional Context and Cross-Checks

8‑K/Press release highlights: Net income $271.3M; diluted EPS $0.83; operating revenue $2.104B; operating income $449.6M; equity earnings (ATC) $54.8M .
Quarterly dividend declared: $0.8925 per share, payable Dec. 1, 2025 (record date Nov. 14, 2025) .
Guidance explicitly reaffirmed: FY25 $5.17–$5.27, assuming normal weather .
Prior-quarter trends: Q2 EPS $0.76; revenue $2.0095B; retail deliveries +1.0%; Q1 EPS $2.27; revenue $3.1495B; retail deliveries +2.9% .

Citations

Q3 2025 8-K and exhibit press materials:
Q3 2025 press release:
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript:
Q2 2025 press release:
Q1 2025 press release:
Dividend declaration (Oct. 16, 2025):

S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Asterisks (*) denote values retrieved from S&P Global.

WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. (WEC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary