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    Welltower Inc (WELL)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$95.28Last close (Apr 30, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$95.02Open (May 1, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.26(-0.27%)
    • Welltower is capitalizing on significant investment opportunities, with $2.8 billion in closed or under contract investments year-to-date and a robust pipeline ahead, aiming to drive substantial per-share growth.
    • The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 4.03x, the lowest in its history, and plans to leverage this position to fund future growth opportunities.
    • Welltower's investment in its analytics and operations teams is enhancing efficiency and effectiveness, contributing to operational excellence and scalability, with these investments paying off significantly.
    • Margins remain significantly below pre-COVID levels, and the profitability of the industry remains challenging, with the company "not even close" to peak levels from 2015.
    • Employee costs have increased by 30-40% in the last 5 years, adding significant pressure to expenses.
    • The U.K. debt market is worse than that of the U.S., posing challenges to the company's international investments.
    1. FAD Growth and Dividend
      Q: What's your outlook for FAD growth and dividend policy?
      A: Management expects strong Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) growth, driven by continued focus on long-term value-add projects with attractive returns. Cash flow has recovered meaningfully from COVID lows, boosting confidence in the senior housing recovery. They are actively discussing the current dividend policy with the Board, indicating potential for dividend increases.

    2. Acquisitions and Funding Plans
      Q: Discuss the $2.6B acquisitions and future funding.
      A: The $2.6 billion in acquisitions are entirely in senior housing and wellness housing, with expected returns similar to previous quarters despite higher interest rates. They've raised capital to fund these transactions, and their pipeline remains robust beyond the $2.8 billion of deals closed or under contract. Management agrees they are under-leveraged and plans to utilize the balance sheet to drive earnings growth post-Fed cycle.

    3. Expense Guidance and NOI Growth
      Q: Was there a change in same-store operating expense guidance?
      A: Yes, expenses underlying the initial budget were at 6.5%, but the revised outlook has decreased to 6%, reducing expenses by 50 basis points. This positively impacts NOI growth expectations.

    4. Potential Risks and Rent Controls
      Q: How do you anticipate potential risks and rent control concerns?
      A: While 25% NOI growth is impressive, management notes the industry's profitability remains challenging, with margins below pre-COVID levels and the peak in 2015. They emphasize the need to restore margins through rates and occupancy. Rent growth has been around 8–9%, not double digits, and employee costs are up 30–40% over the last 5 years. They focus on long-term value creation and are vigilant about potential risks.

    5. Development and Capital Investment
      Q: Are you seeing more competition or new supply in development?
      A: No, there is no influx of new capital, and debt markets are effectively closed. This limits competition and reduces new development activity. Instead, some developers are abandoning projects and disbanding teams.

    6. Senior Housing Strategy
      Q: Are NOI gains driven by strategy or cyclical factors?
      A: Broad-based outperformance is attributed to a deliberate strategy of deep partnerships with operators rather than cyclical factors. This approach enhances employee retention and customer experience, ultimately driving financial results.

    7. Investments in Analytics and Operations
      Q: Elaborate on investments in analytics and operations teams.
      A: Investments in analytics tools and operations teams enable handling a large volume of transactions efficiently. These tools are crucial in screening properties, predicting stabilized NOI, and matching operators. Operational excellence at scale allows for more effective processes, driving value.

    8. Rent Increases and Lease Rates
      Q: How are early rent increases impacting retention and lease rates?
      A: Rent increases have proceeded smoothly with minimal pushback, as residents understand cost pressures. Robust market demand supports renewals and new lease rates, with strong supply-demand fundamentals and appreciated value proposition.

    9. International Opportunities
      Q: Is the $19B opportunity domestic, and what's the outlook abroad?
      A: The $19 billion opportunity is domestic. Similar situations exist internationally, particularly in the UK, where the market and debt availability are more challenging than in the U.S.. Management anticipates engaging in numerous transactions in the UK to capitalize on these conditions.

    10. Transition Assets and Growth
      Q: How will transition assets affect growth when added to same-store?
      A: Many transition assets will enter the same-store pool towards the end of the year or in 2025. Management expects strong growth from these assets, which may be additive to overall growth, though it's too early to say definitively. The Canadian assets transitioned in Q4 will re-enter same-store in 2025.

    11. Skilled Nursing Investments
      Q: How are you accounting for EBITDA reductions in skilled nursing?
      A: They approach skilled nursing as structured credit with short-duration capital, focusing on basis and downside protection. Potential EBITDA reductions have minimal impact due to the protective structure of their investments.

    12. Operating Platform Efficiencies
      Q: Can you provide more color on operating platform improvements?
      A: They are advancing plans to create efficiencies by reducing administrative burden through a unified system. This reduces errors and wasted time, enabling staff to focus on care and leveraging technology to drive value.

    13. Cogir Portfolio Performance
      Q: How is the Cogir PLR portfolio in Canada performing?
      A: The partnership with Cogir is performing very well, with assets and teams embracing Cogir management. Expectations for the portfolio are strong, and significant leasing activity is starting now in Canada.

    14. SHOP Guidance and Leasing Season
      Q: Any updates on SHOP guidance and peak leasing season?
      A: It's too early in the year to comment definitively on guidance. Annual results will be defined by the summer leasing season. Management remains cautiously optimistic and aims to capture more than their fair share of the market.