Western Midstream Partners - Earnings Call - Q2 2025 Post Call

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered record Adjusted EBITDA of $617.9M and strong cash flow, with revenue up year-over-year, though diluted EPS was below prior-year due to mix and equity income dynamics; sequential EBITDA and adjusted gross margin improved on Delaware Basin throughput strength.
• Results were a mixed print versus consensus: revenue modestly missed, while diluted EPS beat; the mix of fee-based contracts and efficiency gains supported profitability despite lower NGL pricing and equity distributions vs Q1. Q2 2025 revenue vs consensus: $942.3M vs $944.6M*; diluted EPS vs consensus: $0.87 vs $0.824*.
• Strategic catalysts: definitive agreement to acquire Aris Water Solutions (EV ≈ $2.0B) and sanctioning North Loving Train II (300 MMcf/d), reinforcing Delaware Basin scale, New Mexico expansion, and multi-stream integration; pro forma net leverage expected ≈3.0x and cost synergies targeted at ~$40M.
• Guidance was reaffirmed for FY 2025 (Adjusted EBITDA $2.35–$2.55B, Capex $625–$775M, FCF $1.275–$1.475B); distribution held at $0.910 per unit, with management signaling distribution growth to trail earnings to build coverage, a supportive stance for valuation and capital allocation discipline.
• Near-term stock reaction catalysts include regulatory/process milestones for Aris, continued Delaware Basin throughput execution, and visibility into 2026 capital plan (≥$1.1B) tied to short-cycle, mid-teens return projects that drive 2027 EBITDA inflection.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • “Highest quarterly adjusted EBITDA in our partnership’s history” with sequential adjusted gross margin improvement, driven by record Delaware Basin natural gas, crude oil/NGLs, and produced water throughput.
  • Strategic M&A: Aris transaction strengthens produced water platform, expands New Mexico footprint, diversifies contracts with long tenors/MVCs; pro forma net leverage ≈3.0x and ~$40M cost synergies targeted.
  • Operational execution: North Loving Train I reached full capacity within a month; Train II sanctioned to meet rising GORs and flow assurance needs; ongoing cost optimization delivered ~$50M annual run-rate savings.

• What Went Wrong

  • Revenue slightly missed consensus despite operational strength; equity investment distributions were lower vs Q1, and per-unit margins for crude/NGLs softened due to timing and mix.
  • Year-over-year diluted EPS declined versus Q2 2024 ($0.87 vs $0.97) amid lower equity income and mix, even as revenue rose YoY.
  • Higher O&M expected in Q3 due to summer electricity costs (partially reimbursed), and continued margin normalization noted across products vs Q1’s NGL uplift.

Transcript

Speaker 2

Welcome to Western Midstream Partners' second quarter 2025 post-earnings call fireside chat with our Chief Financial Officer, Kristen Shults, and our Senior Vice President of Commercial, Jonathon VandenBrand. Kristen, I'll start with you. Can you give us an overview of WES's record second quarter financial and operational results?

Speaker 0

Sure, Daniel. Second quarter was the highest adjusted EBITDA we've had in our partnership's history. Really successful quarter for the team. Operationally, we performed really well. We saw increased throughput across all the product lines and across all of our large operated basins. Delaware Basin really was the winner this quarter. Had record oil, gas, and water in the Delaware Basin. That really contributed to the increase that we saw in adjusted EBITDA, specifically in adjusted gross margin. OpEx was relatively flat compared to Q1. We've been doing a lot of work internally around cost optimization initiatives and just really taking a deep look into how we're operating on the operations side in particular, trying to reduce costs. I think you're starting to see some of that come out as we're moving through this year, and we'll see even more of that coming out in the third and fourth quarter.

It's really helping us from a total OpEx perspective as we see increased costs related to increased water volumes or just increased costs in general as we're pushing through more throughput. Expectations for the rest of the year, we are still looking at similar throughput growth rates as we mentioned at the beginning of the year. Gas mid-single digits growth, crude oil low single digits growth, and water mid-single digits growth as well.

Speaker 2

Jon, we sanctioned a second train at the North Loving 2 plant that is expected to come online in the second quarter of 2027. Can you talk to Western Midstream Partners' slight change in strategy and decision to sanction another plant right now?

Speaker 1

Thanks, Daniel. Absolutely. I think there are two main things to keep in mind as we've approached the sanctioning of North Loving 2. The first is that it's backed by the strong support of our existing agreements, where we've got a tremendous amount of insight to our producers' activity. Through the discussions, as we've gotten into budgeting for next year and as we've received long-term forecasts, we're really inspired and confident in the long-term delivery of what our existing contract structure looks like with a vast variety of producers all across the basin. The second thing that's also been really encouraging is that over the last 12 to 18 months, we've seen a tremendous amount of success on the organic development of our system with new contracts for gas gathering and processing contracts with customers around the basin.

Those together gave us the confidence to pull the trigger and sanction North Loving 2 today. As always, we've had a tremendous amount of connectivity with other processors in the basin via offloads, and we continue to use those today to make sure that we provide ultimate flow assurance and reliability throughout the system. We expect that when we do bring in North Loving 2 in the second quarter of 2027, that it will be very full day one as we've continued to manage the flow into the startup of that via the offloads.

Speaker 2

Can you also give us an update on the Pathfinder pipeline project?

Speaker 1

Absolutely. First of all, we remain focused on executing the development of that infrastructure and bringing it online in the first quarter of 2027. To date, everything is on track, and we're very excited about the startup, the infrastructure, and what it'll do for existing business. As we continue to build on the organic success that we've seen over the last 12 to 18 months on both the gas and the water side of our business, we're very encouraged by the discussions we're having with customers on long-term solutions that will utilize Pathfinder as well as the rest of our assets and infrastructure to provide long-term flow assurance solutions.

Speaker 2

Okay, Kristen, turning back to you. In our second quarter results, Western Midstream Partners announced that we expect the capital budget in 2026 to be at least $1.1 billion. Can you tell us a bit about what is included in that number? How will this drive growth in the coming years?

Speaker 0

Sure. On the earnings call, we wanted to give a little bit of color around what we might think 2026 from a capital perspective would look like. We've announced a lot of new projects this year, really exciting growth projects. We've got Pathfinder and North Loving 2. The vast majority of that spend will be in 2026. We previously talked about Pathfinder, the midpoint of the CapEx associated with that being about $425 million. We spent some of that this year in 2025. We'll spend a little bit more in the second half of this year, but the vast majority, I'd say anywhere from $350 million to $400 million, is going to be spent in 2026. Same thing for North Loving 2. As you know, that's going to be a 300-a-day plant, so that'll be quite a big chunky project for us.

We'll spend a little bit this year as it relates to long lead equipment, but the vast majority will be spent in 2026 too. If you think about what gets layered on top of that, we have just the normal run rate of the business itself, and we are seeing continued growth in the portfolio. In the past, we've talked about that being around, let's call it $500 million, maybe $600 million, when you see increased throughput growth coming from the portfolio, and we still have expansion capital, new compression needs, new SWD needs that we kind of run around that range. If you just take those numbers and start laying them onto each other, that's where we're coming up with in excess of $1.1 billion.

We will obviously get updated forecasts from our producers second half of this year, and then into even January and February, we still look at those and adjust our capital plans for 2026. Because we are a GMP midstream provider, where they decide to ultimately drill on that acreage we're serving can make a pretty material influence on how we put our capital budget together.

Speaker 2

Kristen, Jon, thank you both for joining us today. For our listeners, if you have any additional questions, please feel free to reach out to us. Our contact information is located in the Investor Relations section of our corporate website at westernmidstream.com.