WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC. (WMB) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Another record year: Q4 Adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.776B (+3.2% YoY) and FY24 Adjusted EBITDA reached $7.08B (+4.4% YoY), while GAAP results were depressed by prior-year litigation gains and unfavorable unrealized commodity derivatives .
Guidance raised: 2025 Adjusted EBITDA range lifted to $7.45–$7.85B (midpoint $7.65B, +3% vs prior midpoint), leverage midpoint improved to 3.55x, and dividend increased 5.3% to $2.00 annualized .
Operational momentum: Transco expansions (REA, Southside Reliability, Carolina Market Link) and Gulf Coast Storage integration underpin capacity records and continued project execution; NW Pipeline and deepwater Gulf projects add multi-year growth visibility .
Trend vs prior quarters: Q4 Adj. EBITDA ($1.776B) was above Q3 ($1.703B) and Q2 ($1.667B); Adj. EPS ($0.47) stayed roughly flat YoY, while GAAP EPS compared unfavorably to Q4’23 due to one-offs in the base .
Estimates context: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable during this session; comparisons to Street estimates are therefore not provided and may need follow-up when accessible (see Estimates Context section).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record infrastructure throughput: “Transco has experienced unprecedented demand… we set an all-time record moving 522 million dekatherms… with back-to-back all-time peak days” supporting the natural gas-focused strategy and execution .
Project execution across footprint: Completed Transco Regional Energy Access, Southside Reliability Enhancement, Carolina Market Link; advancing NW Pipeline expansions and a 10 Bcf Gulf Coast storage expansion to serve LNG, power, and industrial demand .
2025 guidance raised: Management increased Adj. EBITDA midpoint by 3% to $7.65B, citing conservative Transco rate case assumptions, deepwater ramp (Whale, Shenandoah), and Haynesville projects (LEG) .

What Went Wrong

GAAP compression vs prior year: Q4 GAAP net income fell $661M YoY, reflecting absence of a $534M Energy Transfer litigation gain and a $384M unfavorable swing in unrealized commodity derivatives; tax decreased with lower pretax income .
Segment volatility in marketing: Gas & NGL Marketing Services saw a $358M net unfavorable change in unrealized commodity derivatives in Q4, pressuring Modified EBITDA despite Adjusted EBITDA normalization .
Lower dry gas activity: Management trimmed expectations in certain dry gas Northeast areas, and gathering volumes were generally lower, though liquids-rich areas and rate increases offset in part .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.559	$2.336	$2.653	$2.771
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)	$1,146	$401	$705	$485
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.94	$0.33	$0.58	$0.40
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$1,721	$1,667	$1,703	$1,776
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)	$588	$521	$528	$579
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.48	$0.43	$0.43	$0.47
AFFO ($USD Millions)	$1,323	$1,250	$1,286	$1,335
Dividend Coverage (x)	2.43x	2.16x	2.22x	2.31x

Notes: Q4 2024 revenue reported on the FY table; quarterly revenue not separately shown in Q4 release but available from Q1 and Q3 filings; GAAP/Adjusted metrics per Exhibit 99.1 tables and prior quarters’ 8-Ks .

Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions):

Segment	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Transmission & Gulf	$752	$812	$830	$826
Northeast G&P	$485	$479	$484	$499
West	$323	$319	$330	$345
Gas & NGL Marketing Services	$69	$(14)	$4	$36
Other	$92	$71	$55	$70
Total Adj. EBITDA	$1,721	$1,667	$1,703	$1,776

Selected KPIs and Operating Stats:

KPI	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Transco Avg. Daily Firm Reserved Capacity (MMdth)	19.3	20.0	20.0	20.4
Contracted Transmission Capacity (Bcf/d)	—	—	—	33.4
Leverage Ratio (Debt/Adj. EBITDA, quarter-end)	3.58x	3.76x	3.75x	3.79x

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global):

Revenue and EPS comparisons to consensus are unavailable due to data access constraints. S&P Global consensus could not be retrieved during this session. Please note comparisons may need updating when S&P data is accessible.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	$7.2–$7.6B	$7.45–$7.85B (mid $7.65B)	Raised (midpoint +3%)
Growth Capex	FY2025	$1.65–$1.95B	$1.65–$1.95B	Maintained
Maintenance Capex	FY2025	$750–$850M incl. $100M emissions	$650–$750M excl. $150M emissions initiative	Lower maint.; separate $150M emissions
Leverage (Debt/Adj. EBITDA)	FY2025	~3.80x (2024 midpoint)	3.55x midpoint	Improved
Dividend	FY2025	$1.90 annualized (2024)	$2.00 annualized (+5.3%)	Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Data center gas-to-power (behind-the-meter)	Dalton Lateral expansion driven by data center load (Q3) ; project development capabilities highlighted	Ordering long-lead equipment; first project near announcement; speed-to-market; turbine supply constraints acknowledged	Accelerating execution; maturing pipeline
Transco expansions & rate case	REA, Southside, Texas-to-Louisiana, Commonwealth Energy Connector progressing (Q2–Q3)	Conservative rate case embedded; record peak days; capacity additions ongoing	Strong execution; recurring capacity records
Gulf Coast Storage	Portfolio acquired (115 Bcf) (Q1–Q2)	Advancing 10 Bcf expansion; attractive returns for brownfield expansions	Expanding capacity; favorable economics
Northwest Pipeline demand	Three expansions executed (Q3)	Demand surprising to upside; more headroom expected	Upward momentum
Deepwater Gulf projects	Anchor, Whale in service/ramp (Q3)	Producer delays impacting Shenandoah/Whale ramp; still meaningful growth in ’25–’26	Near-term timing risk; multi-year growth intact
Haynesville gathering	LEG construction initiated (Q2); deliveries to LNG markets (Q3)	Expect lower curtailments; DUCs/TILs (~3 Bcf/d potential) ready to move with price	Improving activity environment vs 2024
Taxes/cash	Conservative cash tax assumptions; dividend coverage	Bonus depreciation could halve ~$300M cash taxes (adds ~$0.12 AFFO/sh); AMT under discussion	Potential upside lever to AFFO

Management Commentary

CEO on momentum and strategy: “Our natural gas-focused strategy delivered outstanding financial results in 2024… we fully expect this growth to accelerate in 2025. Consequently, we are raising our Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint by 3% to $7.65 billion” .
On peak demand and execution: “We set an all-time record moving 522 million dekatherms… back to back all-time peak days… due to heating, power generation loads and LNG exports… our team continues to deliver… in very complex projects across the system” .
On data center projects: “Projects are moving very fast… we have full support from the counterparty to order major equipment… we will announce more once binding agreements are in place… terms similar to high-value transmission projects” .
CFO on guidance and returns: “Delivering on the $7.65B midpoint would drive an 8% 5-year CAGR… adjusted EPS finished above guidance high-end… leverage moving toward low end of 3.5–4x range” .

Q&A Highlights

Data center scale/supply chain: Initial behind-the-meter project is “meaningful” to capital and faster than typical transmission; turbine supply chain is the primary constraint, with Williams advantaged via compressor driver relationships and purchasing power .
Capex flexibility and discipline: Will flex higher for high-return, risk-adjusted projects without stretching the balance sheet or issuing equity; focus remains on survival-of-the-fittest allocation .
Storage expansions: 10 Bcf Gulf Coast expansion first step; Clay Basin conversion potential; brownfield expansions earning “nice returns” comparable to negotiated transmission projects .
Gathering outlook: ~3 Bcf/d of DUCs/TILs could come online as prices firm; producers emphasizing capital discipline, but ability to ramp volumes quickly is present .
Taxes: Restoration of 100% bonus depreciation could cut ~$300M cash taxes roughly in half, adding ~$0.12 AFFO/sh; AMT policies for energy firms under review; base plan remains conservative .
NW Pipeline demand: Growth has “gone faster than expected” with more capacity likely needed, supporting medium-term expansion cadence .

Estimates Context

Street estimates (S&P Global): Consensus revenue and EPS for Q4 2024 and next quarter were not retrievable during this session due to provider access limits; thus, “beat/miss vs consensus” cannot be determined here. Once S&P Global data is accessible, update comparisons and consider the potential for upward estimate revisions given raised 2025 guidance and strong infrastructure demand [GetEstimates returned provider error].
Where estimates may adjust: 2025 Adj. EBITDA midpoint lifted to $7.65B and dividend to $2.00 suggest upward revisions to FY25 EBITDA/EPS and AFFO assumptions; NW Pipeline and data center projects could drive incremental multi-year capacity-driven uplifts .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Guidance-driven catalyst: The 3% raise to 2025 Adj. EBITDA midpoint (to $7.65B) and improved leverage target (3.55x) are supportive of upward estimate revisions and multiple stability, with dividend raised to $2.00 annualized .
Infrastructure-led growth: Capacity records, conservative rate case assumptions, NW Pipeline expansions, and deepwater ramp underpin multi-year EBITDA visibility beyond 2025 .
Data center optionality: Accelerating behind-the-meter initiative offers upside, with near-term announcement potential; speed-to-market and turbine supply chain management are differentiators .
Cash tax upside lever: Potential bonus depreciation reinstatement could lift AFFO per share (~+$0.12) and dividend coverage, offering optionality for capital returns or incremental growth capex .
Risk watch: Commodity derivative mark-to-market volatility impacts GAAP; producer timing in deepwater projects (Shenandoah/Whale) and dry gas areas may introduce near-term variability .
Trendline supportive: Q4 Adj. EBITDA improved sequentially over Q3 and Q2; segment strength broad-based in T&G, West, and Northeast rates, with marketing normalizing on an adjusted basis .
Action: Monitor regulatory milestones (Transco rate case), NW capacity announcements, and the first data center project FID/contracting as potential stock catalysts over the next 1–2 quarters .

Citations: Q4 press release and Exhibit 99.1 ; Q4 earnings call transcript ; Q3 press release ; Q2 press release .