WTTR Q1 2025: Guides 15% Growth, 50%+ Margins on Strong Infra Demand
- Resilient Water Infrastructure Growth: Q&A participants emphasized that water infrastructure assets, especially in high-growth regions like the Permian Basin, have shown no signs of an activity pullback, and the company feels confident about its strong contracts and asset quality.
- Diversification via AV Farms Project: Management highlighted the promising early customer interest and strong LOIs for the AV Farms project in Colorado, which diversifies revenue streams outside the traditional energy market and positions the company for long‐term growth.
- Strategic Position in Natural Gas Basins: The team underscored a robust footprint in key natural gas basins such as Haynesville and Marcellus, where expanding capacity and margin improvements, driven by potential LNG offtake and other projects, can further boost profitability.
- Reduced water balancing efficiency risk: A decline in drilling and completion activity, particularly in regions such as the Northern Delaware Basin, could impair the company’s ability to balance water flows effectively, potentially impacting operational performance and revenue .
- Delayed revenue realization from new projects: Uncertainty around obtaining definitive customer offtake and associated contracts for initiatives like AV Farms introduces execution risk that could postpone revenue generation and asset payback .
- Macroeconomic headwinds limiting growth opportunities: Historically, downturns have led operators to reallocate capital towards optimizing existing assets rather than pursuing new high-dollar projects, which could hinder the company’s anticipated double-digit growth trajectory .
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Infra Growth
Q: Can you maintain double-digit growth?
A: Management expects strong performance with a base growth of around 15% in 2025 and steady momentum into 2026 with margins over 50%, driven by new contract wins and infrastructure expansion. -
Tariff Protection
Q: Are contracts protected from tariffs/inflation?
A: They emphasized that their Water Infrastructure projects use domestic polyethylene pipelines, ensuring material cost stability and no adverse tariff impact. -
AV Farms Catalysts
Q: What triggers revenue at AV Farms?
A: The team is advancing strong LOIs and engaging local stakeholders, with key contracts pending that will unlock revenue generation and earnings potential. -
AV Farms Timing
Q: Will construction wait for offtake agreements?
A: Management confirmed that project build-out will proceed only after securing customer offtake contracts to underpin the asset’s economics. -
AV Farms Operations
Q: Who will operate post-investment?
A: Initially leveraging partner expertise, Select plans to take over full operational control in the long term, ensuring smooth transition and effective management. -
Chemicals Supply
Q: How localized is the chemicals supply chain?
A: They have domesticated most sourcing, reducing imports to below 50%, which bolsters supply resilience and cost control. -
Permian Activity
Q: Any pullback in Permian activity?
A: Management noted there has been no observed pullback in the Permian, underscoring the strength of their asset positioning. -
Recompletion Shift
Q: Will downturns drive more recompletion activity?
A: They indicated that past downturns see focus on reoptimizing existing assets, with producers favoring recompletes to maximize returns. -
Bakken Shift
Q: Is there movement toward non-Permian areas?
A: While acknowledging potential shifts, management remains confident across all basins, including Bakken, to balance activity. -
Dry Gas Outlook
Q: How’s activity in dry gas basins?
A: They reported a consistent and favorable outlook in dry gas basins, with Haynesville particularly benefiting from rising LNG demand. -
Regional Differences
Q: Differences between Haynesville and Marcellus?
A: Haynesville is expected to see more near-term uplift owing to LNG opportunities compared to the Marcellus, which remains steady. -
M&A Strategy
Q: How does M&A integrate with growth?
A: The focus is on strategically acquiring isolated, well-located assets that complement organic growth, often at attractive below replacement costs. -
Utilization Upside
Q: What’s the benefit of increased capacity use?
A: Enhanced capacity utilization in key assets is expected to deliver highly attractive returns, making each incremental barrel very accretive. -
Margin Impact
Q: How does capacity use affect margins?
A: Management indicated that margin uplift from higher capacity utilization will be at or above the returns seen from new projects, reinforcing strong cost economics. -
Water Balancing
Q: Could lower activity hurt water balancing?
A: They can counter any imbalance through a broad network and digital forecasts, ensuring reliable water movement across the basin. -
CapEx Adjustments
Q: Will asset sales offset higher CapEx?
A: The plan includes netting increased growth CapEx with asset sales, which helps maintain a robust free cash flow yield despite higher investments.
Research analysts covering Select Water Solutions Inc.