Weyerhaeuser Company - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings, and welcome to Weyerhaeuser Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Andy Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Taylor. You may begin.

Andy Taylor (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's third quarter 2023 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our press release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements, as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website. On the call this morning are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer, and David Wold, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, Weyerhaeuser reported third quarter GAAP earnings of $239 million, or $0.33 per diluted share on net sales of $2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $509 million, a 9% increase from the second quarter. These are solid results, and I'm proud of the performance delivered by our teams during the quarter. Turning now to our third quarter business results, starting with Timberlands on pages 6 through 9 of our earnings slides. Timberlands contributed $78 million to third-quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million, a $29 million decrease compared to the second quarter, largely driven by lower sales volumes in our Western and Southern operations and lower average sales realizations for Western export volumes.

In the West, adjusted EBITDA decreased by $22 million compared to the second quarter. Turning to the Western domestic market, log supply was ample in the third quarter as the typical seasonal influx of logs from non-traditional timber owners came to market. Despite this dynamic, domestic log markets remained fairly balanced as mills maintained steady demand, driven by higher pricing and takeaway of lumber early in the quarter, and mills building log inventories to mitigate potential supply risks in the peak of wildfire season. Our average domestic sales realizations were comparable to the prior quarter. As expected, during the warmer and drier months, we transitioned to higher elevation and lower productivity harvest operations. Additionally, although wildfire activity was limited on our timberlands, dry conditions across the Pacific Northwest resulted in harvest restrictions in certain areas.

As a result, our Fee Harvest and domestic sales volumes were moderately lower compared to the second quarter. Our forestry and road costs were seasonally higher, and per-unit log and haul costs were lower. Moving to our Western export business. In Japan, elevated inventories of European lumber imports and reduced consumption continued to weigh on the Japanese log market. That said, our average sales realizations for export volumes to Japan were comparable to the second quarter, largely driven by stable log pricing in the Western domestic market. Our Japanese sales volumes decreased in the third quarter. This was partially due to reduced shipments to a customer that sustained fire damage at one of its sawmills during the quarter.

While the mill is being rebuilt, our customer is in the process of adding shifts in production at different facilities and expects to recover most of the lost production from the damaged operations. It will likely take several quarters for this customer to ramp up the additional production. As a result, we're expecting lower shipments to Japan over the next several quarters. During this period, we expect to ship volume to other customers in Japan and the Western domestic market. In China, despite steady decreases in log inventories at the ports and a reduction in log supply, the Chinese log market continued to be impacted by reduced consumption in the third quarter. As a result, our average sales realizations for export volumes to China, to China decreased moderately compared to the second quarter.

While demand for our logs continues to be steady, our sales volumes were significantly lower as we intentionally flexed logs to the domestic market to capture higher-margin opportunities. Turning to the South, Adjusted EBITDA for Southern Timberlands decreased by $6 million compared to the second quarter. Southern sawlog markets moderated slightly in the third quarter, and fiber markets continued to soften, largely in response to elevated mill inventories, a seasonal increase in log supply, and reduced demand for finished goods, particularly for pulp and paper products. As a result, our average sales realizations decreased slightly compared to the second quarter. Despite these market dynamics, demand for our logs remained steady, given our delivered programs across the region. However, certain geographies did experience wetter than normal conditions at the outset of the quarter, resulting in moderately lower Fee Harvest volumes compared to the second quarter.

Per-unit log and haul costs were comparable, and forestry and road costs were seasonally higher. In the North, Adjusted EBITDA increased slightly compared to the second quarter, due to significantly higher sales volumes resulting from a seasonal increase in harvest activity that is typical in the third quarter. Our sales realizations were moderately lower due to mix. Turning now to Real Estate, Energy, and Natural Resources on pages 10 and 11. Real estate and ENR contributed $56 million to third quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $94 million, a $24 million increase compared to the second quarter, largely driven by the timing and mix of properties sold. Average price per acre decreased compared to the second quarter, but remains elevated compared to historical levels as we continue to benefit from healthy demand for HBU properties, resulting in high-value transactions with significant premiums to timber value.

I'll now make a few comments on an exciting third quarter achievement in our Natural Climate Solutions business. I'm pleased to report that we received approval from ACR for our first forest carbon credits in Maine. The project covers approximately 50,000 acres, has an initial issuance of nearly 32,000 credits, and is expected to generate 475,000 credits over a 20-year crediting period. I want to thank our team for the exceptional work and diligence in completing this initial project and building the foundation to scale this business as the market continues to mature. Our goal is to develop and bring to market forest carbon projects that generate meaningful carbon additionality with measurable climate benefits. This initial project is an important milestone for Weyerhaeuser and demonstrates our commitment to offering only the highest quality credits.

Looking forward, we are developing several additional forest carbon projects within our U.S. timberlands, including two in the South, slated for approval in the first half of 2024. As we've demonstrated since launching our Natural Climate Solutions business, Weyerhaeuser is uniquely positioned to lead in this space, given our expertise and unmatched timberlands portfolio. We've established a target to grow this business to $100 million of EBITDA by year-end 2025, and we've made solid progress to date towards that target. And beyond 2025, we see significant upside from Natural Climate Solutions as markets continue to develop, particularly in the carbon and renewables businesses. And from our perspective, there is no other company in this space with the capabilities or asset base to deliver on this value creation opportunity at scale like Weyerhaeuser. Moving to Wood Products on pages 12 through 14.

Wood Products generated $277 million of earnings in the third quarter, and $328 million of adjusted EBITDA. Third quarter EBITDA was a 21% improvement from the second quarter, largely driven by an increase in OSB sales realizations. Before diving into the business results, I would like to take a moment to highlight the operating performance improvements that we've made in our Wood Products segment over the past several years. To illustrate the point, for the first half of 2023, we delivered peer-leading EBITDA margins across all of our Wood Products businesses. I'm incredibly proud of the work that our teams have done and for their unwavering commitment to our operational excellence initiatives, innovation, and the successful delivery of our ongoing strategic capital investments. Through these efforts, we've positioned our Wood Products business to deliver industry-leading performance.

As we've demonstrated over the last several years, this has allowed our Wood Products business to generate significant cash flow for Weyerhaeuser. And despite a moderation in product pricing of late, this business remains well-positioned to navigate through a range of market conditions and will continue to enhance our competitive advantage as a company, one that supports our commitment to returning meaningful amounts of cash to shareholders and enhancing the value of our portfolio over time. Turning now to lumber results. Adjusted EBITDA was $58 million in the third quarter, a 14% increase over the prior quarter. Benchmark pricing for lumber entered the third quarter on an upward trajectory, supported by improving demand, relatively lean inventories, and the prospect of supply disruptions following an early start to the wildfire season in Canada.

By late July, however, demand had softened as supply concerns dissipated and buyer sentiment turned more cautious due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Despite lean inventories, orders were largely limited to necessity purchases throughout the quarter, and benchmark prices trended lower. For the quarter, our average sales realizations were comparable to the second quarter. Our sales volumes were slightly lower, resulting from reduced production at several mills, partially driven by temporary operating disruptions. Log costs were moderately lower compared to the second quarter, and unit manufacturing costs were comparable. Adjusted EBITDA for OSB increased by $81 million compared to the second quarter, primarily due to the increase in commodity pricing. Benchmark pricing for OSB increased sharply at the outset of the third quarter, supported by resilient demand for new home construction activity, lean inventories, and supply concerns resulting from annual maintenance outages that are typical in the fall.

Pricing remained elevated until mid-September and then decreased through quarter end as buyer sentiment turned cautious in response to weaker-than-expected housing starts in August, as well as general concerns about the economy and the prospect of additional supply coming to market. For the quarter, our average sales realizations increased by 39% compared to the second quarter. Our sales volumes were moderately lower in the quarter. Unit manufacturing costs were slightly higher due to planned downtime for annual maintenance. Fiber costs improved slightly during the quarter. Engineered Wood Products adjusted EBITDA was $125 million, a decrease of $19 million compared to the second quarter. Strong demand for EWP products, which were primarily used in single-family home building applications, kept most of our EWP products on extended lead times for the entire third quarter.

As a result, our sales volumes increased slightly compared to the second quarter, primarily for Solid Section Products. Our average sales realizations for most products decreased slightly as supply and demand continued to rebalance in certain markets. It's worth noting that our current EWP prices remain above pre-pandemic levels. Unit manufacturing costs were slightly higher in the third quarter, and raw material costs increased, primarily for OSB web stock. In distribution, Adjusted EBITDA was $31 million in the quarter, a $3 million decrease compared to the second quarter, driven by lower EWP realizations in certain markets and lower sales volumes for some products. With that, I'll turn the call over to David to discuss some financial items and our fourth quarter outlook.

David Wold (CFO)

Thanks, Devin, and good morning, everyone. I'll be covering key financial items and third quarter financial performance before moving into our fourth quarter outlook. I'll begin with key financial items, which are summarized on page 16. We generated $523 million of cash from operations in the third quarter and ended the period with approximately $1.8 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, which includes amounts raised in our May debt issuance that pre-funded the majority of our 2023 maturities. In July, we used a portion of the debt issuance proceeds to repay $118 million of notes at maturity. Total debt at quarter end was approximately $5.7 billion, including $860 million that matures in December.

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $99 million, which is a typical level for the third quarter, and we remain on track to invest approximately $440 million of capital for the full year. We returned $138 million to shareholders through the payment of our quarterly base dividend and remain committed to growing this by 5% annually through 2025. In addition, we returned $25 million to shareholders through share repurchase activity in the third quarter. These shares were repurchased at an average price of $32.67, and as of quarter end, we had completed $733 million of repurchase under our $1 billion authorization. Looking forward, we will continue to leverage our flexible cash return framework and look to repurchase shares opportunistically when we believe it will create shareholder value.

As highlighted on page 18, Adjusted Funds Available for Distribution for the third quarter totaled $424 million, and we have generated $894 million of Adjusted FAD year to date. Third quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on page 15. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment decreased by $13 million compared to the second quarter. This decrease was primarily attributable to changes in intersegment profit elimination and LIFO. Looking forward, key outlook items for the fourth quarter are presented on page 19. In our timberlands business, we expect fourth quarter earnings and Adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to the third quarter of 2023.

Turning to our western timberland operations, we expect log demand in the domestic market to soften in the fourth quarter as mills adjust to lower pricing and take away of lumber and work through elevated log inventories. As a result, our domestic sales realizations are expected to be moderately lower compared to the third quarter, absent weather-related log supply disruptions. Our Fee Harvest volumes and forestry and road costs are expected to be comparable in the fourth quarter, and per-unit log and haul costs are expected to be moderately higher. Moving to the export markets, starting with Japan. As Devin mentioned, we are expecting fewer export shipments into the Japanese market over the next several quarters in response to the operational disruption experienced by one of our customers in the region. As a result, we expect fourth quarter sales volumes to be moderately lower compared to the third quarter.

Our Japanese log sales realizations are expected to be slightly higher. In China, log supply into the region has adjusted to lower consumption levels, and the market is trending toward a more balanced state. As a result, we anticipate fairly stable pricing for our log shipments into China for the balance of the year. For the quarter, our average sales realizations are expected to be slightly lower compared to the third quarter average. Given steady demand for our logs, coupled with moderating conditions in the western domestic market, we expect to increase our sales volumes into China in the fourth quarter. In the south, we expect stable log markets in the fourth quarter as mills maintain healthy log inventories ahead of wetter conditions that are typical in the winter months. As a result, we expect our sales realizations to be comparable to the third quarter.

Our Fee Harvest volumes and per-unit log and haul costs are also expected to be comparable, and we anticipate seasonally lower forestry and road costs in the fourth quarter. In the north, our Fee Harvest volumes are expected to be significantly higher compared to the third quarter. We anticipate slightly lower sales realizations due to mix. Turning to Real Estate, Energy, and Natural Resources. Real estate markets have remained solid year to date, and we've capitalized on steady demand and pricing for HBU properties. As a result, we are revising our guidance for full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA to $310 million, an increase of $10 million from prior guidance. We continue to expect basis as a percentage of real estate sales to be 35%-40% for the year.

For the fourth quarter, we expect earnings and Adjusted EBITDA to be lower than the third quarter of 2023 due to the timing and mix of real estate sales. For our Wood Products segment, we expect fourth quarter earnings and Adjusted EBITDA will be moderately lower compared to the third quarter of 2023, excluding the effects of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and OSB. Benchmark prices for lumber and OSB entered the fourth quarter on a downward trajectory, resulting from cautious buyer sentiment in response to a seasonal reduction in housing construction activity and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. However, benchmark prices for OSB have stabilized in the last couple of weeks. As shown on page 20, our current and quarter-to-date average sales realizations for lumber and OSB are lower than the third quarter averages.

For our lumber business, we expect moderately higher sales volumes in the fourth quarter and slightly lower unit manufacturing costs. Log costs are expected to be comparable to the third quarter. For our oriented strand board business, we anticipate sales volumes to be moderately higher compared to the third quarter, with slightly lower unit manufacturing costs. Fiber costs are expected to be slightly higher in the fourth quarter. Turning to our engineered Wood Products business, as Devin mentioned, we continue to see strong demand for EWP products given resilient single-family construction activity year to date. As a result, our order files are extended well into the fourth quarter, and product pricing is expected to be fairly stable through year-end. For the quarter, our average sales realizations are expected to be lower compared to the prior quarter average.

Our sales volumes are expected to be slightly lower, primarily for solid section products, resulting from an increase in planned downtime for annual maintenance in the fourth quarter. However, we anticipate an increase in sales volumes for I-joist products. Raw material costs are expected to be slightly higher compared to the third quarter, primarily for OSB web stock. For our distribution business, we expect Adjusted EBITDA to be lower compared to the third quarter, primarily driven by a decrease in commodity realizations. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Devin and look forward to your questions.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Thanks, David. Before wrapping up this morning, I'll make a few comments on the housing and repair and remodel markets. Our macro view on the housing market is largely unchanged, although we have seen some recent headwinds in the multifamily segment in response to increasing interest rates. Importantly, however, the single family segment has remained resilient year to date. In fact, despite the elevated mortgage rate environment, single family starts increased 3% quarter-over-quarter, and new home sales were up in September. As a reminder, single family construction is a much more important demand driver for our business relative to multifamily. In the near term, we continue to believe that the underlying housing demand is solid.

Even at higher interest rates, we expect single family demand to hold up reasonably well, given the limited inventory of existing homes on the market, combined with the home builder's ability to offer mortgage rate buydowns and other incentives. That said, buyer sentiment will continue to be influenced by affordability challenges brought about by increased mortgage rates and elevated home prices, as well as the state of the overall economy. As a result, we continue to anticipate a choppier housing market in the near term relative to the last couple of years. I will note, however, our long-term view on housing fundamentals continues to be very favorable, supported by strong demographic trends and a vastly underbuilt housing stock. Turning to the repair and remodel market, activity remained steady in the third quarter and has held up well year to date.

Although we're likely to see a seasonal reduction in repair and remodel activity over the winter months, we believe underlying demand fundamentals are solid, supported by prospective home buyers choosing to remodel in lieu of purchasing a new home in a higher mortgage rate environment. Looking beyond 2023, most of the key drivers supporting healthy repair and remodel demand remain intact, including favorable home equity levels and an aging housing stock. In closing, we delivered solid results across our businesses in the third quarter. We also achieved an important milestone in our Natural Climate Solutions growth program with the approval of our first forest carbon credits. Looking ahead, although near-term market conditions have moderated, we remain constructive on the longer-term demand fundamentals that support our businesses.

Our balance sheet is exceptionally strong, and we remain focused on maintaining our industry-leading operating performance, serving our customers, and delivering superior long-term value and returns for our shareholders. With that, I think we can go ahead and open it up for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to re-remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. My first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Hi. Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for the details.

David Wold (CFO)

Good morning.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Good morning. I wanted to spend the first couple questions on wood, and the first one on EWP, Devin, if you could. So, you know, we'd heard as well that lead times in EWP have been extended for you. Do you think you're unique, or is the industry, you know, operating at that same stance? Has there been any developments specific to Weyerhaeuser on EWP that's led to the extended lead times? Have you been able to pick up share, say, in distribution, that in turn has fed into your demand on EWP? Any color there would be helpful. The second question, if we can take, you know, a step back and look at your EBITDA trends across the businesses the last number of years.

Again, you know, what Weyerhaeuser has done, you know, on a manufacturing basis has been terrific. Do you still think that you are, you know, more or less black at the bottom across your mill system in light of the fact that there's certainly been a lot of inflation that's occurred in the cost structure, you know, you know, maybe not in fiber, but other areas that you'd have to contend with if we have a deeper downturn. So how would you have us think about those two points?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Sure. Well, I'll take EWP first, George. You know, really, it's a combination of two things, and I'm speaking primarily with respect to Weyerhaeuser and not necessarily other participants in the market. You know, for us, we candidly got a little behind the curve earlier in the year. You know, remember, back to the beginning of 2023, our view was that, you know, single-family housing was going to struggle a little bit in a higher mortgage rate environment. And so we did adjust our operating posture somewhat to reflect, you know, what we thought was gonna be a softer housing environment. Well, what turned out to be the case was single-family held up remarkably well. And so, you know, we have ramped up our production to try to get back on track.

To some extent, that higher level of single-family construction activity, combined with us dialing it back a little bit at the first of the year, put us behind a little bit. We've been managing through it. I think we're catching up. I will say, even though at this point, we do still have fairly extended lead times, I think we're making good progress against that. You know, in terms of the question around black at the bottom, you know, there's no question that over the last several years in the inflationary environment that we've seen, the underlying cost structure has gone up, not just for us, but I would assume for the entire industry. What I would say, though, is I still have a high degree of confidence in our black at the bottom approach.

We continue to be, in my view, the low-cost producer across all of our business lines. And so, you know, even if we do see a more material downturn, I do think we will weather that much better than the rest of the industry, and I would expect us to stay black at the bottom across each of our businesses. Now, you know, that being said, there are going to be, presumably, if we see a material downturn, there will be a few mills that will struggle to stay cash flow positive across the entirety of a year. You know, I'll just highlight the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia are two markets where it can be challenging, just primarily because the dynamic in how log costs come down is oftentimes slower than how quickly lumber prices can move.

And so we've seen that a few times. When you've seen lumber prices move down quickly, it typically, particularly in those markets, the log prices come down a little bit more slowly, which can make the economics challenged for a brief moment in time. But we do still feel confident in being black at the bottom. You know, our organization is focused every day on keeping costs out of the business, improving efficiency, and overall driving down our cost structure. And I think that will serve us well across all points in the market, whether times are good or times are a little more challenged.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Thanks, Devin. My last one, and I'll turn it over. If we go to Slide 8, in the upper left-hand corner, when we look at realizations for the West, and, you know, obviously, it's not a new development, it's been occurring. But I guess the question I had is, if we go back to 2Q 2022, what in your view, has been the reason why we've seen this steady erosion in realizations in the West? And in your view, what would be the single biggest factor to reversing that trend if we look out over the next, you know, 2-4 quarters? Thanks, and good luck in the fourth quarter.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, great question. I mean, it really comes down to lumber prices. In the Pacific Northwest, the market is very tensioned, and you know, frankly, there are just not enough logs to cover all the demand. So the pricing for logs in the Pacific Northwest is really gonna be governed by what happens with lumber prices. And so the mills, you know, they will pay up to the point where they can still drive some margin across the mill set, and that's largely going to really support what log costs do. Now, the one nuance there is, you know, we obviously have an export program to Asia, and that can supplement our realizations. They're tied. You know, there is a correlation between what happens in the domestic log market and in Japan and in China.

And so to the extent that we can get the Japanese market back up, which I think we're trending in that direction, just because you've started to see a lot of that European lumber that had built up in Japan work its way through the system. But it ultimately comes back to what's going on with lumber prices in the Northwest.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Thanks, Devin. I'll turn it over.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yep, great.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Kurt Yinger (VP and Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone.

David Wold (CFO)

Morning.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Morning, Kurt.

Kurt Yinger (VP and Research Analyst)

Good morning. Just wanted to start off on capital allocation and, you know, at least in my view, you guys are currently trading at a pretty wide discount to NAV here. Obviously, timberland M&A remains an important part of the strategy, but with the competitiveness on deals and your stock where it is, how do you think about the attractiveness of repurchases versus acquisitions? And then, somewhat relatedly, you know, if you were to continue to see that NAV discount widen, how willing are you to be kind of more aggressive with share repurchases, maybe above and beyond what the variable returns framework would permit, so to speak?

David Wold (CFO)

Yeah, you bet, Kurt. This is David. I, I just start out by saying, look, we're in a, we're in a very fortunate position as you referenced. We have a lot of levers, so that includes M&A, investing in the business, paying down debt, dividend payments, among others, and we're constantly evaluating our views on, on capital allocation. But all the, all the factors that go into that are, are dynamic, so it's something we always need to be watching. But, you know, as we've said, our capital allocation framework starts with that commitment to return 75%-80% of our adjusted FAD back to shareholders via the base, supplemental and, and share repurchase.

So that portion is really earmarked for returning cash to shareholders, and with the remaining piece above and beyond that, i.e., the 20%-25%, we can allocate that between acquisitions, share repurchase, or reducing our debt. So we do have our target to do $1 billion of timberland acquisitions here over the next few years. So that's something we're certainly intending to allocate a certain amount of our capital towards. We're being disciplined as we navigate that market that you referenced. But look, yeah, as we look at share repurchase, certainly that's something that we've said it's a useful tool to return cash to shareholders in the right circumstances, and specifically when our shares are trading at a meaningful discount. We've been quite active in that space.

We've done $733 million against our $1 billion authorization that we announced a little over two years ago. So we'll continue to be opportunistic there. But, you know, in summary, while that's really an attractive lever right now, we're gonna continue to weigh all those options and ultimately allocate our cash in the way that creates the most long-term value for shareholders.

Kurt Yinger (VP and Research Analyst)

Got it. And I guess just kind of a follow-up, just making sure I understand. So, would you kind of be willing to go, you know, some threshold above 100% of adjusted FAD in a given year, kind of recognizing that you got to be cognizant of where debt levels are, but you would be willing to go above that 100% with kind of share repurchases specifically, if you felt like that kind of discount was wide enough?

David Wold (CFO)

Yeah. So we, we do have the flexibility within our capital allocation framework for that. So any cash above and beyond the 75%-80% that's committed to be returned to shareholders, that's available for growth, debt paydown, or incremental share repurchase. So as always, we're gonna evaluate all those options and ultimately allocate our cash in, in a way that creates the most long-term value. But I'll also add that we're, we're mindful in some periods of, of choppiness, those might provide significant value creation opportunities. So we'll be thoughtful and, and disciplined as we evaluate all those avenues moving forward.

Kurt Yinger (VP and Research Analyst)

Got it. Okay, thanks for that. And then just my second one: in regards to the fire at your Japanese customer's facility, is there a way to kind of quantify what impact you expect that's gonna have on kind of Japanese export volumes over the next couple quarters?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Sure. Yeah, we're thinking it's probably gonna be in the neighborhood of 15%-20% over the next couple of quarters, and then as 2024, you know, moves through the, moves on, we'll, we'll see that shrink down to probably around 10% impact as they move production to other facilities. But I would just note, you know, we do have other Japanese customers, so we're working to reallocate some of that volume. And then, you know, you can typically get a nice premium in the domestic market for those high-quality Japanese logs. And so we've obviously got plenty of domestic customers that we can move that volume to. So net-net, we wouldn't anticipate a material impact to, you know, our margins from this.

Kurt Yinger (VP and Research Analyst)

Okay. Well, appreciate the color, guys, and good luck here in Q4.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

All right. Thank you.

David Wold (CFO)

Thanks, Kurt.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Good morning. So you're expecting flattish quarter-over-quarter realizations in 4Q in the South. And I'm just. I guess, first question, is there any mix impact there, or is that sort of like-for-like pricing? And then second, you know, prices for southern logs have been kind of drifting lower for the past four or five quarters. Are you seeing any signs there that give you confidence in stabilization or maybe bottoming, maybe cost curve support, or is the visibility into end market demand and rates just does it make it too hard to kind of make a call there?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, you know, in the South, it's typically a little bit easier to predict what's gonna happen on realizations than it is in some other markets. You know, the comparable, really, the mix doesn't change dramatically quarter-over-quarter. I think our delivered model and the customer mix that we have, the demand has stayed pretty stable for us. There's still margin to be made on the lumber side, so the demand for saw logs has remained pretty strong.

You know, even on the fiber side, which certainly has drifted down over the course of the year as we've seen some softness in the pulp and paper markets, you know, I don't know that we're necessarily anticipating a strong upturn here in the near term, but I will note we're starting, for the first time in quite some time, to hear a little bit of optimism from many of our pulp and paper customers that a lot of the destocking in their end markets has run its course, and they're gonna start rebuilding some inventory as we get deeper into the winter. So, you know, we may have bottomed in terms of some demand there. Now, there are some regional differences.

I think the, you know, there are portions of the Southeast coastal markets, you know, just because of some mills that have closed down, that may take a little longer to recover. But on balance, you know, I think we're, all things considered, comfortable that we're gonna see comparable realizations in Q4.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Okay, that, that's very helpful. And then just with regards to the. You know, we have seen a number of craft liner mills that have gotten shut down in the South and, I guess one in Washington State. Is that something, I guess, that has a specific impact to Weyerhaeuser? I mean, it sounds like it may have some impact to some of your competitors. I'm just wondering, what the potential impact is to you, if any.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, you know, obviously, anytime you see a customer go out of business or take a mill down, that's not great for the market. You know, that does ultimately have some impact on the overall demand level. But we generally try to work, you know, pretty proactively to have long-term agreements, both for residuals on the wood product side, the pulp logs on the timberland side. So nothing that's happened to date would cause me a whole lot of concern that it's gonna have a material impact to us specifically. But, you know, nevertheless, we do still need to find homes for the, you know, for those residuals and pulp logs, and so, you know, it's in everybody's interest to make sure that these customers are healthy long term.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. And then just maybe shifting gears to Wood Products and maybe a similar question on lumber, you know, with random lengths around $375, are you seeing or do you anticipate any kind of supply response? Maybe we're below cash costs for some of the higher cost producers. And then I guess one thing that we've heard this year is that, you know, some mills are hesitant to let go of labor because, you know, they feel like if they let them go, you know, they may not be able to get them back in this kind of labor market. Has that been, like, a real dynamic that you think has impacted supply? And if you just have any more kind of broad comments about kind of lumber supply with prices where they are.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Sure. Yeah, I mean, it's always hard to say what others are going to do, so I can't necessarily speak to that other than to just point out that historically, when we've seen lumber prices go below cash costs for any period of time, there ordinarily is some sort of supply response, and our estimation is that in certain regions, a decent amount of the ongoing supply is probably underwater from a cash standpoint. You know, the issue with labor, I think that certainly has been a concern, and, you know, that's probably something that's gonna give producers a little bit of pause before taking material downtime. But that being said, you know, ordinarily, you're only gonna run so long losing money before you ultimately make those decisions.

I would say, you know, although certainly not great, we have seen the labor market improve somewhat versus earlier this year. I think, you know, if we were having that same discussion in Q1 or Q2 of this year, I think you probably would have been even more reluctant because the market was so tight. But hopefully that will continue to get better, as we move forward.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Okay, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Good morning, Sue.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning. My first question is staying with Wood Products. It seems like the move in volumes that you saw in a lot of those products over the course of the quarter is in contrast to the outlook that you gave for housing starts, and especially, I think, the commentary and the outlook that the builders have shared over the course of the, you know, this earnings season. As you think about the setup for the industry going into the end of this year and maybe even into early 2024, how do you think that that will come together, and what could it suggest for your ability to operate and to gain share within that segment?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, you know, I mean, our view on what's gonna happen with housing and, you know, I'll just caveat that there's obviously a lot of variables at play. But when we talk to the home builders, and I'll start particularly here with the larger national builders, you know, my view is they're gonna continue to build. It's gonna require ongoing rate buydowns and other incentives to continue to get people into that market. But with such little existing inventory on the market, it is a demand driver that's helping weather what ordinarily would be a very difficult period at these kinds of mortgage rates. But when we talk to the big builders, I think they're gonna continue to build. I suspect they're gonna, you know, they're gonna build slightly up relative to 2023.

I think the more challenged into that market is the medium and particularly the smaller builders. With these higher interest rates, I think that you know, that puts some pressure on them in terms of financing land and some of their other expenses, and they don't necessarily have all of the same tools available to help getting you know, some of those, some of those new home buyers into, into a home. So net-net, I think single family next year might be up slightly, but I think the market share for the big national builders will continue to grow. And, you know, for us, we have a diverse customer base. You know, obviously, we do business with all the big builders. We have good relationships with them.

I would expect us to continue to grow our business with them as they grow. You know, we also do business with the medium and small builders as well, and so, you know, we'll just have to be nimble, and to allocate our product to, you know, whichever builders are growing their market share. But, you know, notwithstanding all the doom and gloom that you hear about housing, I do think people want homes. We're massively underbuilt. There are not a lot of them available. A lot of the people that are in their early thirties that want a home are ready to go out and be home, home buyers and homeowners, and so somebody's going to have to meet that demand. I give a lot of credit to the builders to navigate this environment.

They've done a remarkable job and, you know, all things being equal, we would expect that to continue next year.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Just building on that very quickly, Devin, how do you think about the channel inventories that are out there as we go into the fall? Is there anything you would highlight or call out there?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, on lumber, it's still pretty lean. I think what we've seen is, you know, just nobody really has a good beat on the direction of building as we get into these winter months, and there's just a lot of negative commentary in the press. So I think people are, are fairly reluctant to build inventory, so people are keeping their inventories, pretty light on the lumber side. I'd say on OSB, relative to this time of year, it's probably at or maybe slightly below normal. So maybe not as lean as lumber, but, but certainly not, you know, big inventories either. And then EWP, like I said, at least from, you know, our vantage point, we're, we're on pretty extended order files right now, and so, not, not a whole lot of extra EWP in the system from our standpoint.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. That's helpful color. And then I just want to squeeze one more in, which is, you know, congratulations on getting the forest carbon project in Maine approved. When you think about, you know, the progress that you're making there and the $100 million target for EBITDA that you've set out by the end of 2025, does that $100 million, is that based on volume, or is it based on the pricing to some extent, of where these credits can come in? And any updated thoughts on that as you've hit this milestone?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Sure. Yeah, I mean, we're really pleased with this, this first carbon credit project. You know, it's not a big number in and of itself, but we learned a lot, and I think we're building the foundation to scale this. And so, you know, we've got two more in the South slated for approval in the first half of next year. We got three more in the pipeline behind that. And remember, you know, these, these just continue to build. So each of these projects will have annual credit releases. And so, you know, part of how we're going to get to the 100 million is we've got a lot of different levers, and that's mitigation banking, conservation, renewables, carbon capture and storage, and then the forest carbon.

So I think, you know, it will probably be a little bit more heavily weighted to the existing businesses at the outset, but over time, we certainly think forest carbon, carbon capture and storage and renewables will make up a growing percentage of that. And as I said, you know, in our opening remarks, the more we learn about this market, the more people we talk to, the trajectory of the opportunity set, I think, you know, we have a lot of optimism that the size of this business is ultimately going to scale up into something, you know, more meaningful than $100 million.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you for all the color, and good luck.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Mike Roxland with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you, Devin, David, Andy, and team for taking my questions. First one, just a point of clarification on EWP pricing. I think you mentioned, in terms of the 4Q versus 3Q trajectory, that price realization should be moderately lower. But then I think there was a comment made that product pricing should be stable through year-end. So how do I reconcile it? I mean, is it really that 4Q is really not going to move all that much relative to 3Q? It'll be down slightly, and therefore, that's why product pricing should be stable. I'm just trying to reconcile the little bit of a discrepancy between the two comments.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, that's right. And so remember, when we talk about EWP, I mean, there are a number of products that go in there. So you got solid section, Trus Joist, we got plywood and MDF, all flow through EWP. So when we talk about, you know, solid, what we're primarily talking about is, you know, Trus Joist and solid section, which are the majority products. We are going to see a little bit. You know, the last couple of quarters, we've had to make some targeted price adjustments. Those usually have a little bit of a time lag, which are kind of flowing into Q4. So that's really what drives that slight down quarter-over-quarter. But on balance, you know, we're seeing pretty stable demand and pricing across our Engineered Wood Products business.

Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got you there. Thank you. Sorry, Devin, sorry. One, on that price, the targeted price adjustments, I think even last quarter, you mentioned that you're also making some price concessions on some products in order to remain competitive. So is that something, as you think about your-how you operate in 3Q, did you do that maybe more in 3Q because you were slow to adjust your operating posture, and so in order to make up to or maybe, or to be more competitive with your, your peers, that you decided to, to lower prices more aggressively to make up for, you know, quote, unquote, "lost volume?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, actually, you know, I think it probably had the opposite effect, you know, with very extended order files, that probably took a little pressure off. But frankly, you know, the way we've been approaching pricing is just very targeted, and it's been market by market. And, you know, every market has its own supply-demand dynamic, and just like we do with all products, we adjust prices either down or up, depending on what that dynamic looks like in the particular region. So I wouldn't say it was any kind of material moves in Q3. It was all very targeted, and adjusted to the local supply-demand dynamic.

Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Gotcha. Appreciate that. One last question, just on EWP. You know, just, can you comment where your operating rate was in 3Q? I think last call you mentioned that you had about a low seventies type, low, mid-seventies type operating rate in 2Q, and then you had about 60% in 1Q. So where was it in 3Q, and where do you think it will be in 4Q?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah. So in Q3, it was kind of in the high 70s range for an operating rate across EWP, and we're thinking that's to be more or less comparable for Q4. You know, there's some puts and takes. We're adding presses to kind of keep up with the demand, but on the same token, we have a number of scheduled out annual maintenance downtime. So net-net, it'll, it'll be more or less comparable from an operating rate standpoint.

Mike Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Paul Quinn (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thanks very much. Morning, guys. Just question of.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Thanks.

Paul Quinn (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

OSB was pretty strong in the quarter, but we've got some additional volume coming on at the end of the year. Just wondering why you took maintenance in Q3 as opposed to, you know, typically Q4, and why those shipment volumes were lower?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, so a couple of things. You know, from a maintenance schedule standpoint, you know, we try to schedule them out over the year. To some extent, we may make, you know, minor adjustments depending on what's going on in markets. But as a general matter, it's very hard to predict what's gonna happen with OSB prices quarter-to-quarter. And so, you know, largely, you kind of have to schedule them to get them done each year, and you sequence the mills out across the year. So, you know, the maintenance schedule, more or less, we set in advance, and absent some material change, we try to stick to that. In terms of the sales volumes, you know, the big driver there, the production was pretty, pretty comparable quarter-over-quarter.

The sales volume was down a little bit, and that's really just a reflection of at one of our mills, where we had the annual maintenance downtime. We have contracted volume, really, at most of our facilities, and so we had to build up a little bit of extra inventory in Q3 to sell through during that maintenance downtime in October, and so that was really the difference between production and sales volumes. We've already moved most of that volume now through the system as we've come out of the downtime.

Paul Quinn (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And then just over on the carbon credit side, you know, congratulations on the project. Just wondering how we should think about that in terms of modeling that $475 over the 20 years obviously comes out to lower than the $32,000 initials. So it's at a straight line decline. And then when do you think about monetizing those credits?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, you know, in terms of monetizing, we're, we're out in the market right now, marking that. We're having, I think, some very, productive discussions. I would expect us to be selling through those initial credits in, in relatively, short order. And, you know, as we said, I think during the last call, we're anticipating that's gonna be priced somewhere in the $mid- to high-20s range on a, on pricing standpoint. You know, the, the annual carbon credits is really just tied to the growth trajectory, and the carbon sequestration trajectory over that 20 years. So, you know, it can be a little lumpy. It's not necessarily a straight line in either direction. It'll just depend on the growth profile across that particular, forest.

Paul Quinn (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Great. That's all I have. Best of luck.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

All right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Mark Weintraub (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Thank you. Devin, appreciated your your rundown and thoughts for single family next year. Would you share kind of your view of how you think repair remodel might play out and the key drivers behind that view?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Sure. You know, I think it's there are kind of puts and takes there, Mark. You know, on the one hand, a lot of the drivers that have been around for a number of years that have been spurring repair and remodel are still there. We still have an aging housing stock. People have equity in their homes. I do think this lock-in effect that we're seeing with everyone having refinanced at low rates, and it's gonna keep a lot more people in their homes that otherwise would have moved, and so that's probably gonna spur some level of repair and remodel demand. On the flip side of that coin, you know, obviously, when people move, that's a catalyst for repair and remodel, and if fewer people are selling their house and buying into new houses, that's gonna be a headwind.

And, you know, to some extent, higher interest rates can also be a little bit of a headwind there. So some puts and takes. You know, our view is overall, we're expecting that market to remain solid. And I think you've kind of seen a few different views on this, you know, whether it's up slightly or down slightly. You know, our view is it's probably gonna be flat to up slightly next year, all things being equal. We'll certainly see a little bit of a slowdown here in the winter months, as we always do. There's always some seasonality to that. But as we look out into 2024. You know, I don't think we're gonna see the growth rates that we saw during the heat of the pandemic by any means.

I think we've kind of returned to pre-pandemic levels of growth, and I expect that's probably gonna be the case next year, absent, you know, a material recession or some other event that, you know, that adds an additional headwind there.

Mark Weintraub (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay, thank you. And maybe just following up on one of the prior questions that was asking about share repurchase and your stock trading at a discount to underlying timberland values. I mean, are there scenarios where if the discount is wide enough, it makes sense to sell timberlands, especially given that, you know, you're probably gonna be in that situation when maybe your Wood Products businesses aren't doing so well, so you're not generating as much cash? And so are there scenarios where you have plans to sell timberlands and then use those proceeds to buy back your stock at what might be a wide discount?

David Wold (CFO)

Sure, Mark. Yeah, this is David. We're always looking at ways to ensure we're maximizing shareholder value and how we generate cash and allocate that capital. And like I said earlier, we're fortunate to have a number of levers there. But you know, really, if I take each of those components separately, we've been very active in the market, repurchasing shares, having done $733 million over the last couple of years. So we certainly view that as an attractive opportunity for us to deploy capital. And then on the selling of timberlands, our view is that the value of timberlands is only going up over time, and recent transactions certainly demonstrate we're not the only one with that viewpoint.

And so that's why we've got that target to acquire $1 billion of timberlands over the next several years, and ultimately, why we expect to be a net buyer of timberlands over time. But of course, we haven't been afraid to make adjustments to our portfolio in the past. The real estate program is a great example on how we monetize properties with a better use to generate capital that we can deploy for other purposes. So as of now, given our, our strong balance sheet position and the views that we have about the value of timberlands over time, I'm not sure that we're looking to divest significant amounts of timberland.

Mark Weintraub (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. But so bottom line, kind of arbitraging these spreads is just the, it's not the type of thing that you think is sufficiently dial moving to be kind of a, you know, a significant part of the toolkit. Is that fair?

David Wold (CFO)

Yeah. I mean, we're always looking at all the levers available to us, but, you know, I don't know that I see us divesting a significant amount of timberlands in the near future.

Mark Weintraub (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Maybe just one small detail. You know, you're indicating OSB prices obviously are down from where they were in the third quarter. In EWP, though, you talked about the costs going up. Is that just a lag, or what? What was the difference between those two directions?

David Wold (CFO)

Yeah, Mark. So the way we do those internal transfers is we have a 13-week rolling average on that pricing, and so, based on the trajectory of where OSB prices went over the quarter, we do expect that to be up a little bit quarter-over-quarter.

Mark Weintraub (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay, great. And then lastly, is there much in the way of difference in how we should be thinking about the carbon projects in the South that you are reviewing versus what you did up in Maine? And maybe if you could explain how they might be different, and in particular, any financial ramification differences as we think about them?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, at a high level, not really, Mark. You know, obviously, the margin threshold that you have to overcome in the North is a little different than the South. But, you know, we think where we're getting ready to sell these initial Maine credits at a high, you know, mid- to high-$20s range, I think that would be sufficient for the projects we're thinking about in the South as well. You know, there are different dynamics in terms of the growth rate of trees, et cetera, and so the biometrician's work is a little different, but really, from a high level, there's not a material difference in the way we're thinking about those projects versus the ones up in the Northeast.

Mark Weintraub (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Great. Appreciate the color.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

All right. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Ketan Mamtora (Director of Building Products Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Maybe to start with, Devin, can you talk a little bit about what you are seeing in terms of lumber import from Europe? I know it has eased from the start of the year, but do you see that continuing to trend down? And then what is your sense of, you know, those European inventory sitting at the U.S. ports along the Eastern Seaboard?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

Yeah, I mean, as you say, we certainly saw a pretty significant spike earlier in the year coming in from Europe. That's, that's undoubtedly been coming down. You know, one of the challenges in, in answering that question with specificity is real-time data on those European imports is tough to get at. There's usually a lag. So it's largely based on anecdotal, you know, statements from our sales team. I do think it's continuing to come down. I think it's probably pretty challenging to make the economics work, coming in from Europe right now, when you have to cover all the transportation costs, given where lumber prices are.

That being said, I do anticipate the European producers are going to continue to keep some level of supply coming in, even at these lower lumber prices, because it's an important supply chain for them and an end market that they hope to grow over time. Now, I will say, you know, at some point, when the European economy improves, they still have, I think, a deficit in Europe when you take into consideration the lumber that is not coming in from Russia and Ukraine. I think we probably would have seen a little less European supply coming in if their domestic markets were in better shape. Currently, that's not the case, obviously, but over time, I would expect the European economy to improve and more of that lumber produced in Europe to stay domestic.

But in direct answer to your question, we have seen it come down. I do expect it to come down a little bit more, but not go away completely.

Ketan Mamtora (Director of Building Products Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. And, Devin, have you worked through all of that inventory from start of the year spike?

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

I think so, yes.

Ketan Mamtora (Director of Building Products Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Perfect. And David, just any early read on how you are thinking about 2024 CapEx? I'm not looking for a specific number, just directionally, is it similar to 2023, higher, lower?

David Wold (CFO)

Sure, yeah, Ketan. At this point, we haven't given our 2024 guidance. We typically do that at the beginning of the year, so look forward to that next quarter. I can just say, you know, our multi-year guidance that we've given of $420-$440, you know, at this point, I don't see our 2024 guidance changing substantially from that.

Ketan Mamtora (Director of Building Products Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. Now, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over. Good luck.

Operator (participant)

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Devin Stockfish for closing comments.

Devin Stockfish (CEO)

All right. Terrific. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning, and thank you for your continued interest in Weyerhaeuser. Have a great day.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.