Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered net earnings of $83M ($0.11 diluted EPS) on $1.763B net sales; Adjusted EBITDA was $328M, up 12% sequentially, with neutral year-over-year comparisons driven by Timberlands strength and steady Wood Products profitability .
Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS modestly beat (actual $0.11 vs $0.097*), while revenue was slightly below (actual $1.763B vs $1.767B*). EBITDA comparison is definition-sensitive; the company reports Adjusted EBITDA of $328M vs Street EBITDA consensus $312M*; see Estimates Context .
Guidance: Q2 Timberlands EBITDA/Earnings expected ~$15M lower; Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources (RE&NR) expected ~$50M higher EBITDA and ~$40M higher earnings; Wood Products expected slightly higher EBITDA excluding price changes; FY 2025 RE&NR Adjusted EBITDA maintained at ~$350M, with basis on real estate sales now 30–40% .
Capital returns: Base dividend raised 5% to $0.21; ~$25M of Q1 repurchases with liquidity and debt profile strengthened; new $1B repurchase authorization announced in May (post-Q1), sustaining flexible cash-return framework .
Key catalysts: Segment mix shift (RE&NR ramp in Q2), domestic log pricing resilience amid China log import ban minimal impact, and tariff developments affecting lumber/OSB pricing/ordering behavior; near-term narrative hinges on housing/R&R trajectory and trade policy clarity .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Timberlands outperformed: Net contribution to pretax earnings rose to $102M and Adjusted EBITDA to $167M (+$41M q/q), powered by significantly higher Western domestic sales realizations and healthy demand; shifting volumes away from China and toward domestic/Japan helped mitigate export headwinds .
RE&NR strength and outlook: Q1 EBITDA rose to $82M on favorable real estate mix (higher price per acre, lower basis); management guided Q2 EBITDA +$50M and earnings +$40M, and maintained ~$350M FY EBITDA target, with basis expected at 30–40% for the year .
Capital allocation consistency: Base dividend up 5% to $0.21 and ~$25M of repurchases in Q1; liquidity intact and term loan refinancing extended maturities, reinforcing flexible cash return framework through cycles .

Management quote: “We delivered solid results across each of our businesses… our balance sheet is strong, and we continue to focus on driving operational excellence, capitalizing on strategic opportunities, and creating long-term value for shareholders” — Devin W. Stockfish, CEO .

What Went Wrong

China log ban and export softness: WY paused all shipments to China in March after regulators imposed an import ban; volumes to China declined significantly though impact was “minimal” in Q1; export demand to Japan improved but vessel timing could lower Q2 volumes .
EWP operational disruption: A fire-led multi-week outage at the Montana MDF facility reduced EWP results by ~$11M in Q1; facility returned to more normal operation, with residual small impact expected in Q2 .
OSB pricing and distribution volumes: OSB realizations decreased 1% q/q with elevated channel inventories and softer building activity; distribution EBITDA declined by $4M on lower volumes .

Financial Results

Consolidated results (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q1 2024
Net Sales ($USD Billions)	$1.708	$1.763	$1.796
Net Earnings ($USD Millions)	$81	$83	$114
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.11	$0.11	$0.16
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$141	$179	$196
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$294	$328	$352
Net Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	$218	$70	$124
Adjusted FAD ($USD Millions)	$69	$(7)	$45

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted FAD are non-GAAP, with reconciliations provided in the 8-K exhibits .

Segment breakdown (net sales, contribution, Adjusted EBITDA)

Segment	Q4 2024 Net Sales ($MM)	Q1 2025 Net Sales ($MM)	Q1 2024 Net Sales ($MM)	Q4 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($MM)	Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($MM)	Q1 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($MM)
Timberlands	$497	$534	$521	$126	$167	$144
RE&NR	$86	$94	$107	$76	$82	$94
Wood Products	$1,263	$1,287	$1,302	$161	$161	$184

KPIs — product realizations and volumes

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q1 2024
Structural Lumber: Realizations ($/MBF)	$442	$463	$429
Structural Lumber: Third Party Sales Volumes (MMBF)	1,114	1,138	1,080
OSB: Realizations ($/MSF 3/8")	$321	$317	$359
OSB: Third Party Sales Volumes (MM SF 3/8")	717	719	710
EWP I-Joists: Realizations ($/LF)	$2,508	$2,519	$2,648
EWP Solid Section: Realizations ($/CF)	$2,996	$3,026	$3,212

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Timberlands EBITDA/Earnings before specials	Q2 2025	Not specified	~$15M lower vs Q1 2025	Lower
RE&NR Earnings	Q2 2025	Not specified	~$40M higher vs Q1 2025	Raised
RE&NR Adjusted EBITDA	Q2 2025	Not specified	~$50M higher vs Q1 2025	Raised
RE&NR Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	~$350M (maintained)	~$350M	Maintained
Basis as % of Real Estate Sales	FY 2025	35–45% (earlier)	30–40%	Lower range
Wood Products EBITDA (ex. price changes)	Q2 2025	Not specified	Slightly higher vs Q1 2025	Raised (ex price)
Base Dividend	Q1 2025	$0.20	$0.21	Raised

Segment operational qualifiers for Q2: West domestic logs stable pricing with slightly lower realizations due to mix; fee harvest volumes slightly higher; forestry/road costs seasonally higher. South realizations comparable; volumes and per unit log/haul costs moderately higher; forestry/road costs seasonally higher. Japan exports steady demand but lower volumes due to vessel timing; realizations moderately higher .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Housing & R&R	Expect stronger single-family in 2025; R&R softer in ’24 but improving; lean lumber inventories support pricing	Housing held ~1.4M SAAR; cautious sentiment from tariffs; R&R seasonal pickup with lingering headwinds; medium-term bullish	Mixed near-term; constructive medium-term
Tariffs & Trade Policy	Uncertainty on tariffs; channels lean; some European supply dynamics; industry capacity reductions	Tariffs not materially priced yet; possible impact later in summer; inquiries to shift SPF→SYP; pricing sensitivity to demand cycle	Watch August–September duty changes
China Export Ban	Moderation in China demand; export flexibility	Paused all China shipments; minimal Q1 impact; shifted to domestic/Japan; diversified buyers	Risk contained near-term
Japan Log Demand	Soft in Q3; improving into Q4	Significantly higher export volumes to Japan in Q1; realizations slightly higher	Improving
OSB Market	Q3 pricing down; uptick into Oct; balanced supply/demand	Q1 realizations -1% q/q; channel inventories heavy; maintenance to increase Q2 unit costs; operating rates low/mid 90s; modest impact	Stable to slightly soft near-term
EWP Operations	Q3 operating rates mid-60s; Q4 low 70s trending higher	MDF fire impact ~$11M; operations normalized; expect Q2 volumes to improve; order files ticking up	Recovery underway
Natural Climate Solutions (NCS)	Pipeline growth; two forest carbon projects pending approval; renewables scaling	CCS milestone with Oxy: 25-year offtake; first injection expected ~2029; forest carbon sales targeted +5–10x in 2025	Structural growth medium-term

Management Commentary

CEO perspective: “We delivered solid results… well positioned to navigate a range of market conditions… longer-term demand fundamentals… driving operational excellence… creating long-term value” .
Timberlands strategy: Shifted logs to domestic customers and paused China shipments; domestic realizations significantly higher; Japan volumes significantly higher; ban’s impact minimal near-term .
NCS update: Occidental signed 25-year offtake (~2.3MMt CO₂/yr) tied to WY CCS in Louisiana; first injection expected 2029; CCS viewed as “very significant” opportunity with “incredible” margin (subsurface leasing) .
Capital allocation: $560M cash, ~$5.2B debt; $25M repurchases in Q1; base dividend increased; flexible framework for returns (repurchases and dividends) .

Q&A Highlights

Tariffs and pricing: Limited current pricing impact; possible later in summer; buyers cautious on inventory; potential shift from SPF to SYP, especially Midwest; prices respond to demand strength .
EWP outlook: Q1 EWP impacted by Montana MDF fire (~$11M); small residual in Q2; expect to recover volumes through 2025; pricing near-term comparable; operating rates to improve .
OSB maintenance: Planned Q2 downtime impact “less than $10M”; operating rates expected low-to-mid-90s .
Harvest profile: Full-year fee harvest ~35.5M tons remains intact; harvest levels managed within sustainable ranges .
Forest carbon: 5–10x increase in 2025 credit sales expected; multiple projects in pipeline; strong demand and premium pricing .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 actual vs S&P Global consensus:

Metric	Consensus	Actual
EPS (Primary) ($USD)	0.097*	0.11
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.767*	$1.763
EPS - # of Estimates	11*	—
Revenue - # of Estimates	11*	—

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Implication: EPS modest beat; revenue essentially in line/slight miss. Analysts may adjust models to reflect stronger Timberlands realizations and Q2 RE&NR uplift, while moderating OSB assumptions given Q2 maintenance and channel dynamics .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Sequential improvement with Adjusted EBITDA up 12% and Timberlands realizations driving segment upside; expect near-term Timberlands step-down in Q2 from seasonal costs, offset by RE&NR surge (positive mix) .
EPS beat and revenue inline/slight miss versus consensus; Street likely to revisit segment mix and tax-rate assumptions tied to TRS earnings (Wood Products trajectory) .
China log import ban contained; diversified export and domestic allocation reduces risk; Japan demand improving; monitor vessel timing in Q2 .
Wood Products: lumber realizations +5% q/q; OSB -1% q/q; Q2 maintenance to lift OSB unit costs; watch tariffs into late summer for pricing volatility and inventory behavior .
NCS optionality: CCS offtake milestone and growing forest carbon pipeline support medium-term EBITDA scale; high-margin subsurface leasing and renewables ramp underpin non-cyclical cash flows .
Capital return visibility: 5% dividend increase and continued buybacks (new $1B authorization post-Q1) signal confidence in cash generation across cycles; refinancing enhances flexibility .
Trading setup: Near term, RE&NR-driven Q2 uplift and tariff headlines likely drive sentiment; medium term, housing/R&R trajectory and NCS execution underpin valuation, while China ban remains a watch item with low current impact .

WEYERHAEUSER CO (WY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary