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    WEYERHAEUSER (WY)

    WY Q2 2025: Guides Q3 EBITDA ~$50–60M lower on weak housing

    Reported on Jul 25, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$26.47Last close (Jul 25, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$26.47Last close (Jul 25, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Strategic Timberland Acquisitions: Management emphasized acquiring 117,000 acres of high‐quality timberlands in North Carolina and Virginia with a clear funding strategy via divestitures, demonstrating a disciplined approach to growing their timber portfolio that is expected to generate sustained cash flows.
    • Competitive Cost Position in Wood Products: Executives highlighted robust operating rates—high 80s in lumber, mid 90s in OSB, and high 70s in engineered wood products—and a strong cost structure, positioning the company to capture market share and benefit from expected pricing adjustments due to duty changes.
    • Robust Capital Allocation and Share Repurchase Program: The call noted a record quarterly share repurchase of $100,000,000, underlining the company’s strong balance sheet and commitment to returning cash to shareholders, which provides flexibility to fund growth initiatives while enhancing shareholder value.
    • Softer housing market and subdued demand: Customer comments highlighted softer housing starts, with single‐family starts below 1,000,000 units and lower builder optimism. This dampened demand could pressure wood products margins over the near term.
    • Commodity price volatility and margin pressures: Discussion around lumber, OSB, and EWP revealed that current pricing levels are near or below breakeven. Concerns over uncertain pricing dynamics—exacerbated by impending tariff changes and investigations—could further compress margins.
    • Reliance on divestitures to fund acquisitions: The strategy to fund major timberland acquisitions by divesting non-core assets introduces execution risk. If these divestitures fail to materialize as anticipated within the required timeframe, it could strain liquidity and hinder capital allocation.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue (business segments)

    Down 2.8% (from 1,939 million USD to 1,884 million USD)

    **Total revenue decreased by 2.8% YoY primarily because lower revenues in Timberlands and Wood Products outweighed the strong 41% increase in Real Estate & Energy & Natural Resources. This reflects a mixed performance across segments influenced by prior period trends. **

    Timberlands revenue

    Down 8.8% (from 409 million USD to 373 million USD)

    **A decline of 8.8% YoY in Timberlands revenue is driven mostly by a significant drop in the West region and only marginal changes in South and North regions, suggesting lower volumes or pricing compared to previous periods. **

    Real Estate & Energy & Natural Resources

    Up 41% (from 109 million USD to 154 million USD)

    **The 41% revenue surge in this segment is attributable to improved pricing and mix of real estate sales along with timing benefits, which contrasts with the lower sale volumes seen previously. **

    Wood Products revenue

    Down 4.5% (from 1,421 million USD to 1,357 million USD)

    **Overall Wood Products revenue fell by 4.5% YoY despite a strong performance in Structural Lumber; the decline is largely due to a significant drop in Oriented Strand Board sales. **

    Structural Lumber

    Up 16% (from 499 million USD to 581 million USD)

    **Structural Lumber performance improved by 16% YoY, reflecting higher pricing and robust market fundamentals compared to past periods. **

    Oriented Strand Board

    Down 28.8% (from 288 million USD to 205 million USD)

    **OSB experienced a sharp decline of 28.8% YoY, likely due to weaker demand and pricing pressures that offset improvements seen in other wood product lines. **

    Timberlands – West region

    Down 17.6% (from 205 million USD to 169 million USD)

    **The West region saw a 17.6% drop, which is a major contributor to the overall decline in Timberlands revenue, indicating further weakening in market conditions or cost pressures relative to the previous period. **

    Timberlands – South region

    Nearly flat (153 million USD to 154 million USD)

    **With sales nearly unchanged YoY, the South region maintained its performance with stability in volumes and pricing, providing little offset for other declining segments. **

    Timberlands – North region

    Down slightly (from 9 million USD to 8 million USD)

    **A minor decline from 9 to 8 million USD in the North reflects modest volume drops relative to prior performance, contributing marginally to the overall Timberlands decline. **

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Earnings and Adjusted EBITDA (Timberlands Business)

    Q3 2025

    $15M lower compared to Q1 2025

    $10M lower compared to Q2 2025

    raised

    Log Demand (Western Domestic Market)

    Q3 2025

    Steady

    Facing downward pressure

    lowered

    Douglas Fir Log Pricing (Western Domestic Market)

    Q3 2025

    Remain stable

    Facing downward pressure

    lowered

    Fee Harvest Volumes (Western Domestic Market)

    Q3 2025

    Slightly higher

    Slightly higher

    no change

    Forestry and Road Costs (Western Domestic Market)

    Q3 2025

    Increase seasonally

    Seasonally higher

    no change

    Sales Volumes (Western Export Program)

    Q3 2025

    Lower compared to Q1 2025

    Increase moderately

    raised

    Average Sales Realizations (Western Export Program)

    Q3 2025

    Increase moderately

    Increase slightly

    lowered

    Sawlog Pricing (Southern Timberlands)

    Q3 2025

    Remain relatively stable

    Comparable

    no change

    Earnings Before Special Items and Adjusted EBITDA (Wood Products)

    Q3 2025

    Slightly higher than Q1 2025

    Comparable to Q2 2025

    lowered

    Full Year Typical CapEx Program

    FY 2025

    No prior guidance

    Lowered from $440M to $400M

    no prior guidance

    Monticello EWP Facility Investment

    FY 2025

    No prior guidance

    Total $500M through 2027; $130M for FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Timberland Acquisitions and Forestry Asset Expansion

    Detailed discussions in Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 highlighted strategic acquisitions (e.g., Alabama deals) and forestry asset expansion; Q1 2025 had no specific mention.

    Q2 2025 focused on a major acquisition in North Carolina/Virginia, funding via divestitures, and clear ties to sustained cash flow generation.

    Renewed and enhanced focus – After a gap in Q1, current period shows robust execution and strategic expansion, reinforcing long‐term asset growth.

    Capital Allocation and Share Repurchase Strategies

    Consistently discussed in Q1 2025 , Q3 2024 , and Q4 2024 with a balanced approach and ongoing repurchase programs.

    Q2 2025 maintained the same disciplined capital allocation and share repurchase drive – record quarterly repurchases were noted.

    Steady and disciplined – The strategy remains consistent and even intensifies in Q2, supporting shareholder returns.

    Tariff and Trade Policy Uncertainty

    Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 discussed concerns over tariffs on lumber and trade policy with some market skepticism; Q3 2024 did not mention it.

    In Q2 2025, uncertainty is tied to weaker consumer confidence and housing activity with mention of potential policy clarity and possible Fed support.

    Ongoing mild caution – Tariff/trade uncertainty remains a headwind, though current commentary hints at possible catalysts for improvement.

    Wood Products Pricing, Margin Pressures, and Cost Structure

    Q1 2025 , Q3 2024 , and Q4 2024 provided detailed pricing trends, margin deterioration in OSB/lumber and cost adjustments, with generally mixed sentiment.

    Q2 2025 indicates continued pricing pressures (declining framing lumber composite; notable margin decreases in lumber and OSB) while mentioning cost advantages as a low‐cost producer.

    Mixed and evolving – Margin pressures persist on wood products with some stabilization efforts, reflecting ongoing market challenges.

    Sustainable Harvest Levels and Operational Efficiency

    Q1 2025 [39–41] and Q4 2024 [43–45] emphasized stable, sustainable harvest levels and cost improvements; Q3 2024 focused on operational efficiency initiatives.

    Q2 2025 did not specifically mention sustainable harvest levels but reiterated operational excellence and strong cost positioning.

    Shifted emphasis – While operational efficiency remains a focus, the sustainable harvest discussion has receded in the current period.

    Environmental and Climate Initiatives (CCS and Natural Climate Solutions)

    Q1 2025 , Q3 2024 , and Q4 2024 provided strong commentary on a growing pipeline in CCS and forest carbon projects with long‐term EBITDA targets.

    Q2 2025 reinforced expanding its Natural Climate Solutions pipeline, approving additional forest carbon projects and highlighting renewable initiatives (like solar) that support a $100 million EBITDA target.

    Accelerating focus – There is an intensified commitment to environmental initiatives, with a robust project pipeline that could be transformational over the long term.

    International Log Export Expansion

    Q1 2025 explored positive trends in Japan and issues with China; Q3 2024 expanded into India, Vietnam, and other markets; Q4 2024 discussed varied regional dynamics.

    Q2 2025 discussed stable Japanese markets, a pivot to India as a new growth driver, and a cautious outlook regarding the China market due to broader trade issues.

    Geographic diversification – The strategy is evolving with a renewed focus on emerging markets (especially India), while managing persistent challenges in China.

    Housing Market and Demand Dynamics

    Q1 2025 , Q3 2024 , and Q4 2024 outlined a resilient housing market with mixed segments and seasonal demand, despite challenges in multifamily and R&R segments.

    Q2 2025 reported softened housing starts and headwinds from elevated mortgage rates along with identified potential catalysts (tax clarity and Fed support) for later improvement.

    Short-term softness, long-term optimism – Near-term challenges persist, but the underlying fundamentals remain positive for future recovery.

    Operational and Project Execution Risks

    Q3 2024 mentioned cost management, permitting delays (in CCS) and execution uncertainties in renewables and carbon projects; Q1 and Q4 provided little direct discussion.

    Q2 2025 did not explicitly address these risks, instead emphasizing operational excellence and noting that major projects (like the EWP facility) are on track.

    Stable, with mitigated risk concerns – While inherent execution challenges remain, the current discussion focuses on strong operational track records rather than new risk signals.

    Cash Flow, Dividend, and Funding Concerns

    Q1 2025 , Q3 2024 , and Q4 2024 demonstrated strong cash flow generation, disciplined dividend increases, and proactive debt/repurchase management.

    Q2 2025 continued this trend with robust cash flow from operations, high share repurchase levels, and consistent dividend/payout strategies.

    Consistently strong – The company maintains a resilient financial profile with effective cash management and funding strategies, supporting ongoing growth and shareholder returns.

    1. Wood Products Capacity
      Q: How balance capacity and trim OpEx?
      A: Management stressed that through disciplined operational excellence and a low‐cost system, they can flexibly adjust capacity while controlling operating expenses even in a down market.

    2. Timberlands Strategy
      Q: What’s the approach on timberland deals?
      A: They are strategically acquiring high‐quality timberlands—funded largely by divestitures—with a target of $1B in investments by year’s end, reflecting strong market interest.

    3. EWP Pricing
      Q: What drives a turnaround in EWP prices?
      A: Prices have been pressured by a slowdown in single‑family construction, but management expects a rebound as housing activity picks up and conversion efforts progress.

    4. Wood Products Outlook
      Q: What is the Q3 outlook for wood products?
      A: They anticipate slightly lower operating rates in Q3 with an expected sequential EBITDA decline of roughly $50–60M due to commodity price volatility, yet fundamentals remain sound.

    5. SPF vs. SYP
      Q: Will buyers shift from SPF to SYP?
      A: With impending higher duties on SPF, the cost advantage of Southern Yellow Pine is prompting a shift that could boost margins in a challenging pricing environment.

    6. Climate Solutions Impact
      Q: How does the big bill affect climate projects?
      A: The recent legislation is seen as a net positive, expediting project timelines with several solar sites underway and a robust pipeline to capitalize on climate credits.

    7. Japan & China Exports
      Q: Are Japan gains sustainable; China imports return?
      A: Sustained cost advantages promise continued market share gains in Japan, while unresolved trade issues delay a return of China imports—prompting a pivot toward India.

    8. Divestitures & Repurchases
      Q: What is the timeline for divestitures funding acquisitions?
      A: Divestitures are expected to complete within a 180‑day window per IRS guidelines, and active share repurchases underscore strong balance sheet flexibility.

    9. Section 232 Tariffs
      Q: Are European tariffs deferred during Section 232 review?
      A: Management confirmed no tariffs are applied to European lumber while the Section 232 investigation is ongoing, pending future trade negotiations.

    10. Canadian Quota Prospect
      Q: Will the US adopt lumber quotas?
      A: While there’s discussion, a swift move to quotas on the US side appears unlikely in the near term, leaving policy outcomes uncertain.

    11. Q2 Operating Rates
      Q: What were the Q2 operating rate figures?
      A: The reported figures were strong, with lumber in the high 80s, OSB in the mid 90s, and EWP in the high 70s, demonstrating efficient operations.

    12. Real Estate Pricing
      Q: Why have per-acre prices risen?
      A: Increases are largely attributable to mix and timing effects rather than a structural uplift in property values.

    13. Capital Allocation & Carbon Credits
      Q: Will extra capital flow to wood products and carbon credits?
      A: They’re open to strategic acquisitions in wood products—with ongoing CapEx initiatives—and the carbon credits pipeline is robust, with 3 approved projects and 6 in development expected in 2025–2026.

    Research analysts covering WEYERHAEUSER.