Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Xcel Energy expects to deliver earnings at or above the top end of their 5%-7% long-term EPS growth rate, driven by their updated $39 billion 5-year capital plan, which reflects 9% rate base growth.
- They have added $5 billion of capital to their plan, reflecting significant growth opportunities in clean energy investments, including renewable generation and transmission infrastructure, supporting customer needs and driving growth.
- Forecasted electric sales growth of 2%-3% in 2024, driven by strong commercial and industrial load growth, particularly in the SPS region and Colorado, including data centers coming online, contributing to earnings growth.
- Regulatory lag and under-earning in Colorado: Xcel Energy is experiencing regulatory lag and under-earning in Colorado, with earned ROEs below authorized levels, which may affect future earnings growth.
- Equity issuance and potential dilution: The company plans significant equity issuances to fund its large capital expenditure plan, potentially diluting existing shareholders and pressuring earnings per share growth.
- Litigation risk from the Marshall Fire: Xcel Energy faces significant litigation risk from the Marshall Fire, with claims potentially exceeding $2 billion, which could result in substantial financial liabilities.
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EPS Growth Guidance
Q: Can you clarify your EPS growth rate guidance?
A: Management stated they expect to be at or above the top end of their 5% to 7% EPS growth range over the next 5 years, implying growth above 6%. They believe 5% to 7% is still a good long-term growth rate and will rebase off actual earnings. -
Dividend Growth Trajectory
Q: Why are you lowering the dividend growth to the low end of guidance?
A: Due to significant growth in their base plan, including an added $5 billion of capital, management decided to lower dividend growth to the low end of the 5% to 7% range to reduce equity needs and enhance financial flexibility. This approach helps reduce financing risks while still delivering strong total shareholder returns. -
Capital Expenditure Increase
Q: How will the additional $5 billion CapEx affect your plans?
A: The updated $39 billion capital plan includes an extra $5 billion in investments. The plan is accretive, and management expects to fund it with a balanced mix of equity and debt, while assessing dividend growth and financing needs as they update their plans. -
Equity Financing Needs
Q: What are your equity financing plans given the CapEx increase?
A: Management confirms no change in equity guidance for this year, with $350 million to $360 million planned. They expect to issue at least $500 million annually through their ATM over the next 5 years and will be opportunistic with any additional equity needs. -
PIMs in Colorado
Q: How will the Colorado PIMs affect your operations?
A: The company is comfortable managing within the new Performance Incentive Mechanisms (PIMs) in Colorado, which include a cost to construct PIM with a ±5% deadband and customer sharing beyond that. There's also an operational PIM based on LCOE with a ±5% deadband, where costs or savings beyond that are shared 80% customers, 20% company. They view these PIMs as manageable. -
Hydrogen Tax Credit Concerns
Q: What are your thoughts on recent hydrogen tax credit guidance?
A: Management is disappointed with the 45D tax credit draft guidance from the Treasury, as it may make green hydrogen production more expensive and hinder industry development. They believe strict additionality and hourly matching requirements will challenge cost-competitive hydrogen production. -
O&M Savings and Outlook
Q: Can you discuss the O&M savings from workforce reductions?
A: The company reduced approximately 550 positions, resulting in 2% O&M savings on a run-rate basis. They aim to reinvest some savings into growth areas and maintain O&M roughly flat long-term, despite inflation. Guidance for 2024 anticipates O&M up 1% to 2% relative to '23, but flat compared to '22. -
Load Growth Opportunities
Q: What are the load growth prospects in SPS?
A: SPS experienced load growth close to 5% in 2023 and expects significant growth to continue. This is driven by large industrial customers' electrification forecasts, with a potential range of 5,000 to 10,000 megawatts in the SPS resource plan. They plan to launch an RFP in the summertime to accommodate this growth. -
Volume Growth Acceleration
Q: Where do you anticipate volume growth acceleration in 2024?
A: The company expects 2% to 3% volume growth in 2024, primarily driven by SPS and electrification from large industrial customers. Additional growth comes from new C&I customers in Colorado, including a data center. Residential customer growth remains around 1%. -
Improving Colorado Earned ROE
Q: How do you plan to improve earned ROE in Colorado?
A: Management acknowledges a significant gap between authorized and earned ROE in Colorado. They anticipate improvements through timely recovery mechanisms, like riders, for capital deployed in the clean energy transition. They aim to reduce regulatory lag and ensure a financially healthy utility. -
Wildfire Mitigation Plan
Q: Will the Colorado wildfire mitigation plan impact CapEx?
A: The updated wildfire mitigation plan in Colorado focuses on moving from pilot programs to scale deployments of measures like coatings on poles, covered conductor, and incremental undergrounding. Management doesn't expect it to be a material driver of capital deployment but sees it enhancing risk reduction. -
Marshall Fire Legal Proceedings
Q: Any updates on the Marshall Fire lawsuits?
A: There's no update on the dollar amount of claims related to the Marshall Fire. Management intends to vigorously defend against the allegations and will update stakeholders as the process unfolds.