Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- ExxonMobil has multiple major projects starting up in 2025 that are expected to deliver more than $3 billion in earnings potential by 2026, including the Yellowtail project in Guyana, which is likely to exceed expectations and contribute more than estimated.
- ExxonMobil plans significant growth in earnings ($20 billion** increase) and cash flow ($30 billion increase) by 2030, supported by clear capital investment plans and $6 billion in additional structural cost reductions, enabling increased profitability with flat CapEx.**
- ExxonMobil is well-positioned in the LNG market with advantaged low-cost supply projects, long-term contracts linked to crude pricing, and plans to capitalize on strong global LNG demand growth, supporting future revenue growth.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +98% YoY (from $84,344 million to approx. $167,180 million) | A near doubling in revenue was driven by significantly higher commodity pricing and/or increased production volumes compared to the subdued performance in Q4 2023, suggesting a recovery from a lower base. This strong rebound reflects favorable market conditions and possibly successful execution of upstream initiatives that had been lagging in the previous period. |
Operating Income | –7.7% YoY (from $10,625 million to $9,813 million) | Despite the revenue surge, operating income declined likely due to margin pressures such as higher operating costs or cost structure challenges that were more prominent in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023. This indicates that not all revenue gains translated into improved operational profitability. |
Net Income | +210%+ YoY (from $763 million to $23,675 million) | Net income soared dramatically despite a dip in operating income, suggesting favorable non-operating factors such as lower effective tax rates or significant non-cash adjustments that improved the bottom line relative to Q4 2023. This sharp recovery may also reflect one-off gains or improved financial management in contrast to the previous challenging period. |
Earnings Per Share (EPS) | –10% YoY (from $1.91 to $1.72) | EPS declined by 10% despite the net income jump, hinting at potential dilution effects or changes in share count. This discrepancy between net profit and per-share earnings indicates that the improvement in overall profitability was partially offset by structural changes in equity, compared to Q4 2023. |
U.S. Revenue | +10.6% YoY (from $31,483 million to $34,804 million) | U.S. revenue growth was driven by stronger domestic production and performance improvements in the upstream segment, reflecting robust market demand in the U.S. that outpaced previous year's figures. |
Non-U.S. Revenue | –7.9% YoY (from Non-U.S. revenue notional higher in Q4 2023 to $46,254 million) | Non-U.S. revenue declined due to weaker refining margins and reduced throughput in key regions, as well as ongoing challenges in foreign exchange impacts, which contrasts with the domestic market improvements observed in the U.S. in Q4 2024. |
Corporate and Financing Revenue | +7000%+ YoY (from $25 million to $1,779 million) | Extraordinary increase in Corporate and Financing revenue was driven by a dramatic shift in tax and financing items, including the absence of previous year’s low base and adverse tax items. This reclassification or change in financial structuring has resulted in a substantial surge compared to Q4 2023. |
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) and Exploration Expense | FY 2024 | $28B | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $27–$29B | no prior guidance |
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | FY 2026–2030 | no prior guidance | $28–$33B | no prior guidance |
Structural Cost Reductions | FY 2030 | no prior guidance | $18B total | no prior guidance |
Earnings contribution from major projects | FY 2026 | no prior guidance |
| no prior guidance |
Share buybacks | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $20B | no prior guidance |
Share buybacks | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | $20B | no prior guidance |
Permian Basin production | FY 2030 | no prior guidance | 2.3 million boepd | no prior guidance |
Guyana production | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Yellowtail project start | no prior guidance |
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | FY 2024 | $28B total for FY 2024 (Exxon Mobil: $25B + Pioneer: $3B) | Approximately $29.7B (sum of Q1: $5,074M, Q2: $6,235M, Q3: $6,16M, Q4: $12,381M) | Beat |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Guyana projects and expansions | Q3: Gas-to-energy, Payara online above investment basis, debottlenecking efforts. Q2: Exceeding expectations with strong performance. Q1: Rapid ramp-up above 600 kbpd, new Bluefin discovery. | Yellowtail project on track for Q3 2025; potential better performance. Achieved 650 kbpd in 10 yrs, planning 40 reservoirs by 2030. | Consistently highlighted; optimism remains strong with repeated mention of project expansions. |
Pioneer acquisition in the Permian | Q3: Significant synergies from infrastructure/logistics, record drilling, added 770 kboepd. Q2: Integration exceeding expectations, leveraging Pioneer's assets. Q1: Share buybacks paused pending Pioneer vote, then ramped to $20B/year. |
| Growing synergy realization, consistent optimism about production growth. |
Cost reductions and structural savings | Q3: $5B reduction vs. 2019, leveraging AI for efficiencies. Q2: $1B YTD structural savings, $600M from turnaround efficiencies. Q1: >$10B completed, aiming for $15B by 2027. | $12B in structural cost reductions since 2019, targeting $18B by 2030. | Persistent focus; targets increased from $15B to $18B, sentiment remains positive about further savings. |
Chemical margins and overcapacity | Q3: Bottom-of-cycle conditions in Asia, overcapacity in China. Q2: 1–2% above GDP demand, significant new capacity still depressing margins. Q1: Flat margins amid capacity additions; Performance Products helped offset some weakness. | Margins remain below 10-year average; demand strong but supply overhang persists. | Margins remain weak, with overcapacity challenges consistently cited across periods. |
LNG expansions (Golden Pass, etc.) | Q3: 6-month delay for Golden Pass, strong long-term demand. Q2: Settlement allowed project restart, first LNG by end-2025, projects linked to oil pricing. Q1: No mention. | Expects healthy global LNG demand, aiming for Rovuma 2026 and first LNG at Golden Pass by mid/late 2025. | Recurring focus on LNG growth despite schedule shifts; demand outlook remains robust. |
Low carbon solutions | Q3: Largest offshore CO₂ storage in U.S., Baytown hydrogen project with new partners. Q2: Focus on CCS, blue hydrogen, and new materials like Proxxima. Q1: CCS, DAC pilot at Baytown, hydrogen MOUs, plastics recycling. | 6.7 Mt/year CCS contracted, four CCS projects within 24 months, hydrogen expansions; targets $2B in earnings by 2030. | Accelerating investments, consistently expanding; viewed as long-term growth driver. |
Dividend growth and shareholder returns | Q3: 4% dividend boost, 42nd year of growth, top 5 dividend payer in S&P 500. Q2: $9.5B to shareholders, $4.3B as dividends. Q1: $3.8B in dividends, ramped buybacks post-Pioneer vote. | 42 consecutive annual dividend hikes, over $125B returned in five years; $20B share buyback in 2024–2025. | Consistent increases; dividend remains a key part of sustainable shareholder returns. |
Working capital and timing effects | No mention in Q3 or Q2. Q1: $120M negative timing effect in Upstream, derivative impacts in Energy Products. | No mention in Q4 2024. | No reappearance in subsequent calls. |
Capital expenditures and ROCE | Q3: 2024 CapEx $28B, integrating Pioneer for 2025 plan. Q2: CapEx at $25B (top end), disciplined approach. Q1: $5.8B CapEx, invests in resilient, high-return projects. | Cash CapEx of $27–$29B for 2025; $28–$33B for 2026–2030. 2024 ROCE 13% overall. | Stable CapEx with disciplined allocation; continued focus on improving ROCE. |
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2025 Project Start-ups
Q: When will key projects contribute earnings in 2025?
A: Darren Woods outlined several major projects starting up in 2025, including the China Chemical complex in Q1, Rotterdam conversion in early Q1, two advanced recycling units at Baytown in Q2 and Q4, Strathcona renewable diesel in Q2, Singapore resid upgrade starting up at the back end of Q2, Bacalhau in Q3, Yellowtail in Q3, and Golden Pass LNG towards the end of 2025. These projects are expected to contribute over $3 billion in improved earnings once fully operational, considered in 2026. Even at current challenging margins, they still contribute about $3 billion in earnings. -
CapEx and Cost Management
Q: What CapEx levels are assumed to achieve 2030 goals?
A: Kathryn Mikells stated that for 2025, ExxonMobil expects cash CapEx between $27 billion and $29 billion, and between $28 billion and $33 billion from 2026 to 2030. To offset growth expenses and inflation, they've achieved over $12 billion in structural cost reductions since 2019, aiming for $18 billion by 2030. Darren Woods added that since 2019, they have offset all additional costs of growth and inflation, and further reduced costs by $1.5 billion. -
Share Buybacks and Dividends
Q: Is Exxon waiting to buy back Pioneer shares before increasing dividends?
A: Kathryn Mikells explained that they increased their buyback pace from $17.5 billion to $20 billion annually, coinciding with the Pioneer acquisition, but it's a coincidence that this amount will effectively buy back the Pioneer shares over three years. Exxon focuses on a dividend philosophy that is sustainable, competitive, and growing, having increased the annual dividend for 42 years. They understand the importance of dividends to shareholders and continue to prioritize them. -
Low-Carbon Strategy Amid Policy Changes
Q: How might policy changes on CO2 impact Exxon's low-carbon investments?
A: Darren Woods emphasized that Exxon's low-carbon strategy is based on offering cost-effective solutions to reduce emissions while meeting energy needs, irrespective of specific policies. They focus on long-term fundamentals and have built capabilities to affordably reduce emissions. Kathryn Mikells noted that policy changes aiming to streamline regulations could facilitate projects like CO2 sequestration. Exxon remains adaptable to changes and continues to advance its low-carbon initiatives. -
LNG Market and Contracts
Q: What's Exxon's LNG contracting strategy and market outlook?
A: Darren Woods expects strong LNG demand as economies grow and decarbonize. ExxonMobil's LNG projects will be predominantly underpinned by long-term contracts linked to crude pricing. They reserve some volume uncontracted to support their trading business, capitalizing on market opportunities. For projects like Rovuma in Mozambique, they focus on low-cost supply and advantaged returns, working towards a 2026 timeframe for FID. -
Guyana Project Progress
Q: How is the Guyana asset tracking relative to expectations?
A: Darren Woods expressed confidence in the Guyana developments. The Yellowtail project is tracking consistent with public expectations and may come in slightly ahead of schedule, with Q3 2025 being a good date to consider. They anticipate moving from roughly 10 reservoirs to 40 by 2030, with ongoing optimization and reservoir management, potentially exceeding their current estimates. -
Carbon Capture Growth
Q: What's the outlook for Exxon's carbon capture business?
A: Darren Woods highlighted that Exxon is uniquely positioned with the world's only end-to-end carbon capture, transport, and storage system. There's strong customer interest and a healthy sales pipeline. Kathryn Mikells stated that they expect $2 billion in earnings growth from their low carbon solutions business, including CCS and hydrogen, between now and 2030. Aggressive growth plans are dependent on customer demand and long-term contracts. -
Chemical Market Outlook
Q: Any signs of improvement in the chemical margins?
A: Darren Woods noted that despite challenging industry margins, Exxon's chemical facilities are advantaged, particularly in North America, which is the most advantaged region. Demand remains at record levels, but supply is challenging. Kathryn Mikells added that upcoming projects like the China Chemical complex will enhance their position, focusing on performance chemicals and advanced recycling, ensuring they remain a low-cost supplier even in difficult market conditions. -
Gulf of Mexico Strategy
Q: Why is Exxon underrepresented in Gulf of Mexico deepwater?
A: Darren Woods explained that Exxon's limited presence is due to evaluating opportunities based on cost of supply and geology. The Gulf of Mexico's development costs and challenging geology impact the cost structure. If new exploration areas open, Exxon will evaluate them, but they remain focused on pursuing advantaged barrels that provide cost-effective supply and high returns, regardless of location. -
Data Center Decarbonization
Q: How is Exxon enabling AI expansion with decarbonized power?
A: Darren Woods stated that Exxon's strategy is to offer decarbonized power for data centers by leveraging their end-to-end CO2 capture, transport, and storage capabilities. They are not entering the utility business but are acting as an integrator to accelerate schedules, with potential to have a site operational by 2028 and decarbonized by 2029. There is strong customer interest in building decarbonized data centers. -
Impact of Tariffs
Q: How might North American tariffs affect ExxonMobil?
A: Darren Woods indicated that, despite noise and speculation, tariffs are not expected to impact Exxon's competitive position. They focus on being effective and efficient operators, producing high-value products, and being at the low end of the cost of supply curve, ensuring they continue to outperform competition regardless of tariffs. -
Additional Project Contributions
Q: Are other projects contributing beyond the $3 billion earnings increase?
A: Kathryn Mikells clarified that they focused on projects where Exxon is the operator and new start-ups when discussing the over $3 billion earnings contribution. Projects like TCO and existing ventures like the Permian crude venture, where Exxon is not the operator or projects already underway, will also provide incremental benefits but were not included in that specific figure. Typically, earnings from new projects may lag cash flow slightly.
Research analysts covering EXXON MOBIL.