ZD
ZIFF DAVIS, INC. (ZD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 delivered 5.9% revenue growth to $412.8M and 10.7% growth in adjusted diluted EPS to $2.58, with adjusted EBITDA up 2.5% to $171.8M; however, management said the quarter came in “a bit short” of internal estimates due to Humble Games slippage, lower-than-expected Connectivity bookings, and an indirect tax contra-revenue item .
- New 5-segment reporting increases transparency; Technology & Shopping led YoY growth in Q4, while Cybersecurity & Martech remained the only 2024 decliner but is expected to return to growth in H2’25 .
- 2025 guidance implies an acceleration: revenue +5% at midpoint to $1.472B, adjusted EBITDA +6% to $523M, adjusted diluted EPS +5% to $6.96; seasonality to be >20% of revenue in Q1 and ~30% in Q4; non‑GAAP tax rate 23.25–25.25% .
- Capital allocation: $225M deployed to M&A and $185M to repurchases in 2024; leverage modest at 1.8x gross and 0.7x net with $664M cash and investments, positioning ZD to stay active in M&A in 2025 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Advertising and performance marketing grew 10.6% in Q4; net revenue retention improved to 92%, and revenue per advertiser rose to ~$136K, highlighting healthier demand and mix shift toward larger customers .
- Technology & Shopping segment revenue rose 26% YoY in Q4 (helped by CNET and consumer tech), and Gaming & Entertainment grew 3.5% YoY; management expects Tech & Shopping to be the strongest 2025 grower with margin expansion .
- Strong FCF: Q4 free cash flow nearly doubled YoY to $131.1M; FY’24 FCF reached $283.7M (57.5% of adjusted EBITDA), supporting repurchases and deal capacity .
- Quote: “We believe 2024 marked an inflection point… returned to revenue, adjusted diluted EPS, and free cash flow growth.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
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What Went Wrong
- Q4 fell short of internal plan by ~${10}M revenue; Humble Games titles slipped or underperformed and large Ookla data deals did not materialize in Q4; an indirect tax audit created a contra‑revenue item impacting reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA .
- Health & Wellness was flat for FY’24 (+0.1% YoY) and Connectivity declined YoY in Q4; Cybersecurity & Martech declined ~3% in FY’24, though margins held ~35% .
- Operating margin pressure: Q4 operating income fell to $78.5M from $80.7M and adjusted EBITDA margin dipped to 41.6% (−140 bps YoY) due to mix and the issues above .
Financial Results
QTD trend (sequential)
YoY snapshot (Q4)
Segment revenue (Q4 YoY)
Q4 segment profit (Adjusted EBITDA)
Key Operating Metrics (Q4)
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
Note: Adjusted metrics are non‑GAAP; see reconciliations in the press release and slides .
Guidance Changes
Management did not provide prior 2025 guidance; this is an initial guide. Reconciliations for forward-looking non‑GAAP are not provided due to variability of non‑operating items .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We believe 2024 marked an inflection point for the Company as it returned to revenue, adjusted diluted EPS, and free cash flow growth.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
- “We just came up a touch short… roughly $10 million of revenues falling out… very unusual for us to miss our own estimates even slightly and very much view it as an anomaly.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
- “Connectivity is our most exciting business… we were willing to sacrifice near-term growth for long-term gains… deprioritizing the ad business… to focus entirely on subscriptions and data.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
- “Our guidance reflects an improving outlook… significant increase in connectivity’s growth… Cybersecurity and Martech will continue to improve.” – CFO Bret Richter .
- On CNET integration: “We’re ahead of schedule… realized the synergies and savings… going to market as the CNET Group… delivering 5–6x purchase price over EBITDA within 12–24 months.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
Q&A Highlights
- Advertising/Walled Gardens: Management expects mid-single-digit ad growth in 2025 midpoint; leadership positions in endemic verticals (tech, gaming, health) offset broader open web pressures; B2B headwinds subtract ~150 bps from tech ad growth .
- M&A and Buybacks: 2025 M&A deployment at least consistent with 2024; active pipelines across all five segments; buybacks remain opportunistic with >6.2M shares still authorized .
- LLM Licensing: Open to licensing at fair value for training use; patient approach amid favorable copyright rulings; current public deal sizes seen as not material .
- Health & Wellness: Strong pharma upfronts; DTP headwinds easing; GLP‑1 exposure small today but synergistic with Lose It! subscriptions and anticipated ad budgets .
- Connectivity/Ookla: Q4 miss tied to lumpy large deals and timing of historical data sales; reorg created some disruption but positions for scale; deprioritizing ads .
- Cyber/Martech: Sequential improvement expected through 2025; return to growth targeted in H2 .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) could not be retrieved at this time (tool limit exceeded). As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus in this report. Management disclosed a shortfall versus internal expectations of roughly $10M revenue in Q4 due to Humble Games timing/underperformance, missing Connectivity deals, and an indirect tax contra‑revenue item .
- Where estimates may adjust: models likely reflect slightly lower Visibility in Humble Games and lumpy Connectivity licensing, offset by stronger A&PM trends, Tech & Shopping momentum (CNET integration), and 2025 guidance midpoint implying acceleration .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Growth re-acceleration underway: 2025 midpoint guides to +5% revenue/+6% adj. EBITDA, with improved contributions from Tech & Shopping, Health & Wellness, and a stronger Connectivity trajectory .
- Mix quality improving: A&PM retention at 92% and rising average revenue per advertiser point to healthier direct demand; subscription/licensing base (41.8% of revenue in FY’24) provides ballast .
- Connectivity is a 2025 swing factor: Post-reorg, focus on higher-quality subscription/data revenues could normalize deal lumpiness and expand the TAM; watch bookings cadence and large deal closures .
- Cyber/Martech inflection in H2’25: Maintaining ~35% EBITDA margins while revenue trends improve should support consolidated margin resilience .
- Capital allocation remains a catalyst: $664M cash/investments and sub‑2x gross leverage support continued M&A and opportunistic buybacks; 2024 actions reduced convert dilution and extended maturities .
- AI risk manageable near term: Low incidence of AI Overviews in key queries (12%); diversified traffic and leadership brands mitigate search disintermediation risk; AI features driving engagement in key products .
- Near-term trading setup: Q1 seasonally >20% of revenue and guided “muted,” with improvement 2H‑weighted; catalysts include M&A execution, Connectivity deal flow, and evidence of Cyber/Martech H2’25 reacceleration .
Additional Data and Notes
- Free cash flow cadence: Q4’24 FCF $131.1M vs $65.9M a year ago; FY’24 FCF $283.7M vs $211.2M, reflecting strong working capital seasonality and TDS contribution in Q4 .
- Segment realignment: five reportable segments with five-year historical revenue provided; FY’24 adj. EBITDA margins: Connectivity ~51.5%, Gaming ~38.1%, Health & Wellness ~37.4%, Tech & Shopping ~33.6%, Cyber/Martech ~34.8% .
- FY’24 GAAP items: $85.3M goodwill impairment; GAAP diluted EPS $1.42; adjusted diluted EPS $6.62 .
Sources: ZD Q4’24 8‑K and press release, investor presentation/slides, and Q4’24 earnings call transcript .