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ZD

ZIFF DAVIS, INC. (ZD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 delivered 5.9% revenue growth to $412.8M and 10.7% growth in adjusted diluted EPS to $2.58, with adjusted EBITDA up 2.5% to $171.8M; however, management said the quarter came in “a bit short” of internal estimates due to Humble Games slippage, lower-than-expected Connectivity bookings, and an indirect tax contra-revenue item .
  • New 5-segment reporting increases transparency; Technology & Shopping led YoY growth in Q4, while Cybersecurity & Martech remained the only 2024 decliner but is expected to return to growth in H2’25 .
  • 2025 guidance implies an acceleration: revenue +5% at midpoint to $1.472B, adjusted EBITDA +6% to $523M, adjusted diluted EPS +5% to $6.96; seasonality to be >20% of revenue in Q1 and ~30% in Q4; non‑GAAP tax rate 23.25–25.25% .
  • Capital allocation: $225M deployed to M&A and $185M to repurchases in 2024; leverage modest at 1.8x gross and 0.7x net with $664M cash and investments, positioning ZD to stay active in M&A in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Advertising and performance marketing grew 10.6% in Q4; net revenue retention improved to 92%, and revenue per advertiser rose to ~$136K, highlighting healthier demand and mix shift toward larger customers .
    • Technology & Shopping segment revenue rose 26% YoY in Q4 (helped by CNET and consumer tech), and Gaming & Entertainment grew 3.5% YoY; management expects Tech & Shopping to be the strongest 2025 grower with margin expansion .
    • Strong FCF: Q4 free cash flow nearly doubled YoY to $131.1M; FY’24 FCF reached $283.7M (57.5% of adjusted EBITDA), supporting repurchases and deal capacity .
    • Quote: “We believe 2024 marked an inflection point… returned to revenue, adjusted diluted EPS, and free cash flow growth.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Q4 fell short of internal plan by ~${10}M revenue; Humble Games titles slipped or underperformed and large Ookla data deals did not materialize in Q4; an indirect tax audit created a contra‑revenue item impacting reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA .
    • Health & Wellness was flat for FY’24 (+0.1% YoY) and Connectivity declined YoY in Q4; Cybersecurity & Martech declined ~3% in FY’24, though margins held ~35% .
    • Operating margin pressure: Q4 operating income fell to $78.5M from $80.7M and adjusted EBITDA margin dipped to 41.6% (−140 bps YoY) due to mix and the issues above .

Financial Results

QTD trend (sequential)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)$320.8 $353.6 $412.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$96.3 $124.7 $171.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)30.0% 35.3% 41.6%
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.18 $1.64 $2.58

YoY snapshot (Q4)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)$389.9 $412.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$167.6 $171.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)43.0% 41.6%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.29 $1.43
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$2.33 $2.58

Segment revenue (Q4 YoY)

Segment ($M)Q4 2023Q4 2024
Technology & Shopping$105.2 $132.9
Gaming & Entertainment$49.2 $50.9
Health & Wellness$106.5 $105.7
Connectivity$57.0 $54.3
Cybersecurity & Martech$72.0 $69.0
Total$389.9 $412.8

Q4 segment profit (Adjusted EBITDA)

Segment ($M)Q4 2023Q4 2024
Technology & Shopping$49.8 $58.3
Gaming & Entertainment$24.8 $24.7
Health & Wellness$46.8 $46.8
Connectivity$30.3 $29.5
Cybersecurity & Martech$25.4 $22.4
Corporate$(9.6) $(9.9)
Total$167.6 $171.8

Key Operating Metrics (Q4)

KPIQ4 2023Q4 2024
Advertising & Performance Marketing Revenue ($M)$233 $258
A&PM Net Revenue Retention (%)87.1% 92.0%
A&PM Customers (count)1,943 1,899
A&PM Revenue per Customer ($)$119,975 $135,762
Subscription & Licensing Revenue ($M)$146 $148
S&L Customers (000s)3,266 3,649
S&L Avg Revenue per Customer ($)$44.77 $40.44
S&L Churn (%)2.86% 2.83%

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

MetricFY 2023FY 2024
Free Cash Flow ($M)$211.2 $283.7
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M, 12/31)$737.6 $505.9
Long-term Investments ($M, 12/31)$140.9 $158.2
Gross Debt ($M, 12/31)$1,001.3 $864.3
Gross Debt / FY Adj. EBITDA (x)1.8x
Net Debt / FY Adj. EBITDA (x)0.7x; 0.4x incl. investments

Note: Adjusted metrics are non‑GAAP; see reconciliations in the press release and slides .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($B)FY 2025N/A$1.442–$1.502 (midpoint $1.472) New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025N/A$505–$542 (midpoint $523) New
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)FY 2025N/A$6.64–$7.28 (midpoint $6.96) New
Non-GAAP Effective Tax RateFY 2025N/A23.25%–25.25% New
Diluted Share CountFY 2025 PlanN/A~43M (excl. potential convert dilution) New
Revenue SeasonalityFY 2025N/A>20% Q1; ~30% Q4 New

Management did not provide prior 2025 guidance; this is an initial guide. Reconciliations for forward-looking non‑GAAP are not provided due to variability of non‑operating items .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI/search and traffic impactQ2: AI Overviews in ~8% of key queries; no material traffic impact; focus on licensing fairness and patience . Q3: AI Overviews ~10%; high-domain brands advantaged; diversified traffic sources .AI Overviews present in only 12% of top queries; no material aggregate CTR impact; diversified model (traffic-dependent ads ~35% of revenue) limits risk .Stable; cautious but confident positioning in AI era.
AI product initiativesQ2: Ekahau AI Pro Online, VIPRE AI Advisor, Lose It! voice logging . Q3: ongoing AI chat in IGN; continued product embeds .Lose It! AI features highlighted by CNN; Health eCareers AI job fit case study; engagement uplift (18%+, 30% applications) .Positive adoption and engagement.
Advertising environmentQ2: softness in B2B tech; health and retail issues; reaffirmed FY guide . Q3: A&PM +5.8%; stronger consumer tech, gaming; retention ~92% .Q4 A&PM +10.6%; retention 92%, higher revenue per advertiser; mid-single-digit ad growth embedded in 2025 midpoint .Improving; mix shift toward larger customers.
Health & WellnessQ2: slightly positive; provider-side headwinds . Q3: DTC healthy; provider pulled back .Upfronts strong; DTC vs. DTP balance improving; GLP-1 exposure low but strategic via Lose It! bundling .Stabilizing; poised to re-accelerate in 2025.
Connectivity (Ookla/Ekahau)Q2: mid-single-digit growth; Ekahau product updates . Q3: steady; some licensing/one-time revenue timing .Q4 shortfall from lumpy large deals and deprioritized ads; major reorg (leadership and 20% org changes); focus on subscriptions/data; stronger 2025 expected .Near-term pressure; 2025 growth re-acceleration.
Cybersecurity & MartechQ2: lowered FY outlook to low-single-digit decline; e-mail strength; SEO (Moz) softness . Q3: still down YoY, margins preserved .FY’24 revenue −2.6%; margins ~35%; expected to return to growth in H2’25 .Gradual improvement; H2’25 inflection targeted.
M&A and capital allocationQ2: CNET pending; active pipeline; repurchases resumed . Q3: closed CNET; bought back 2M shares; leverage 1.8x .2024 deployed $225M M&A, $185M buybacks; 6.2M shares remain authorized; 2025 M&A expected at least consistent with 2024 .Active and opportunistic.
DEI and cultureN/A in Q2. Q3: ESG progress (CSA, EcoVadis) .Emphasized DEI as value-creating and core to knowledge work and audience reach .Continued cultural focus.

Management Commentary

  • “We believe 2024 marked an inflection point for the Company as it returned to revenue, adjusted diluted EPS, and free cash flow growth.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
  • “We just came up a touch short… roughly $10 million of revenues falling out… very unusual for us to miss our own estimates even slightly and very much view it as an anomaly.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
  • “Connectivity is our most exciting business… we were willing to sacrifice near-term growth for long-term gains… deprioritizing the ad business… to focus entirely on subscriptions and data.” – CEO Vivek Shah .
  • “Our guidance reflects an improving outlook… significant increase in connectivity’s growth… Cybersecurity and Martech will continue to improve.” – CFO Bret Richter .
  • On CNET integration: “We’re ahead of schedule… realized the synergies and savings… going to market as the CNET Group… delivering 5–6x purchase price over EBITDA within 12–24 months.” – CEO Vivek Shah .

Q&A Highlights

  • Advertising/Walled Gardens: Management expects mid-single-digit ad growth in 2025 midpoint; leadership positions in endemic verticals (tech, gaming, health) offset broader open web pressures; B2B headwinds subtract ~150 bps from tech ad growth .
  • M&A and Buybacks: 2025 M&A deployment at least consistent with 2024; active pipelines across all five segments; buybacks remain opportunistic with >6.2M shares still authorized .
  • LLM Licensing: Open to licensing at fair value for training use; patient approach amid favorable copyright rulings; current public deal sizes seen as not material .
  • Health & Wellness: Strong pharma upfronts; DTP headwinds easing; GLP‑1 exposure small today but synergistic with Lose It! subscriptions and anticipated ad budgets .
  • Connectivity/Ookla: Q4 miss tied to lumpy large deals and timing of historical data sales; reorg created some disruption but positions for scale; deprioritizing ads .
  • Cyber/Martech: Sequential improvement expected through 2025; return to growth targeted in H2 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) could not be retrieved at this time (tool limit exceeded). As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus in this report. Management disclosed a shortfall versus internal expectations of roughly $10M revenue in Q4 due to Humble Games timing/underperformance, missing Connectivity deals, and an indirect tax contra‑revenue item .
  • Where estimates may adjust: models likely reflect slightly lower Visibility in Humble Games and lumpy Connectivity licensing, offset by stronger A&PM trends, Tech & Shopping momentum (CNET integration), and 2025 guidance midpoint implying acceleration .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Growth re-acceleration underway: 2025 midpoint guides to +5% revenue/+6% adj. EBITDA, with improved contributions from Tech & Shopping, Health & Wellness, and a stronger Connectivity trajectory .
  • Mix quality improving: A&PM retention at 92% and rising average revenue per advertiser point to healthier direct demand; subscription/licensing base (41.8% of revenue in FY’24) provides ballast .
  • Connectivity is a 2025 swing factor: Post-reorg, focus on higher-quality subscription/data revenues could normalize deal lumpiness and expand the TAM; watch bookings cadence and large deal closures .
  • Cyber/Martech inflection in H2’25: Maintaining ~35% EBITDA margins while revenue trends improve should support consolidated margin resilience .
  • Capital allocation remains a catalyst: $664M cash/investments and sub‑2x gross leverage support continued M&A and opportunistic buybacks; 2024 actions reduced convert dilution and extended maturities .
  • AI risk manageable near term: Low incidence of AI Overviews in key queries (12%); diversified traffic and leadership brands mitigate search disintermediation risk; AI features driving engagement in key products .
  • Near-term trading setup: Q1 seasonally >20% of revenue and guided “muted,” with improvement 2H‑weighted; catalysts include M&A execution, Connectivity deal flow, and evidence of Cyber/Martech H2’25 reacceleration .

Additional Data and Notes

  • Free cash flow cadence: Q4’24 FCF $131.1M vs $65.9M a year ago; FY’24 FCF $283.7M vs $211.2M, reflecting strong working capital seasonality and TDS contribution in Q4 .
  • Segment realignment: five reportable segments with five-year historical revenue provided; FY’24 adj. EBITDA margins: Connectivity ~51.5%, Gaming ~38.1%, Health & Wellness ~37.4%, Tech & Shopping ~33.6%, Cyber/Martech ~34.8% .
  • FY’24 GAAP items: $85.3M goodwill impairment; GAAP diluted EPS $1.42; adjusted diluted EPS $6.62 .

Sources: ZD Q4’24 8‑K and press release, investor presentation/slides, and Q4’24 earnings call transcript .