Ermenegildo Zegna - Earnings Call - H2 2024
March 27, 2025
Transcript
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Good afternoon and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the Ermenegildo Zegna Group FY 2024 financial results call. Please note that today's material and presentation are available under the zegnagroup.com website. Joining us today are the Zegna Group leadership team, including Gildo Zegna, the Group CEO, and Gianluca Tagliabue, Group CFO and COO. Before we begin, we need to point out that the team will make certain forward-looking statements during the call. The Group actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Also, these statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those described in our SEC filings. Please refer to the forward-looking statement's cautionary statement included at page two of today's presentation. I will now hand over to Gildo Zegna.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Thank you, and good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to talk about Ermenegildo Zegna Group FY 2024 results. As you all know, 2024 was a different year than what we initially planned. Despite the challenges, we delivered an adjusted EBIT of EUR 184 million. Although I cannot be fully satisfied with the numbers we present today, I am absolutely assured by the proven strength of our teams in navigating challenging moments with discipline and determination. I would like to start this call by sharing some reflections on last year as well as our outlook going forward. First, let me start by commenting on the most recent event, the Tom Ford Fashion Fall/Winter 2025 Show in Paris. Personally, I cannot recall such an unanimous acclaim from the press and key opinion leaders.
The show has been celebrated as one of the best of the season, recognized for its innovative collection and presentation. Also, we generated double the media impact of the brand's latest show. It is not just about recognition. The show was a powerful testament to Peter Hawkings' ability to evolve Tom Ford into a modern and sophisticated interpretation of sensuality and elegance. We are already starting to see customer interest in the collection. The See Now, Buy Now pieces, those already available in stores, are being positively received as well as the Fall/Winter 2025 All Seasons campaign. Of course, this is just the first step, but we must sustain this momentum, and they know that the Tom Ford Fashion team is fully focused on doing exactly that.
It is also important to recognize that this show would not have been possible, at least not with such success, without the contribution of our unique Filiera, our integrated supply chain, with artisans working tirelessly day and night in the lead up to the show to achieve such perfection in every piece. Bravo to all of them. Second, Thom Browne. The February show confirmed that we have already discussed the brand journey. Thom Browne has always stood for expertly crafted products and distinctive tailoring. This DNA has and always will be there. We bid on that to evolve the brand, and this is what the team is doing. We are enhancing newness while protecting the unique four-bar emblem, improving the brass architecture of the collection and of the in-store offering for both men and women. All this while the company focuses on embedding a strong retail culture.
Last week, the brand opened its new store in Palm Beach, Florida, and soon will open LA, California, and New York, Madison Avenue. An important step in enhancing its footprint in the United States. Let me also mention the February Fashion Show and the recent result, which confirmed that the brand collection has been highly appreciated by customers. Last but not least, the innovative show that Gucci did at the Grammys. She performed with 20 dancers all dressed in Thom Browne, a further testament to the strength of our brand. Finally, on Zegna, the Velluto Messico Collection and the innovative advertising campaign we launched with Mr. Auro Montanari outperformed our expectations, attracting not only our existing customers but also new ones. This is part of our future journey to engage both existing and potential customers with products of the highest quality and exclusivity, outstanding craftsmanship, and a unique heritage.
In June, we will take all this to Dubai, a market that continues to show impressive growth and appreciation of the Zegna brand. To celebrate our special relationship with Dubai, Zegna will host its first show outside Milan alongside a week-long Villa Zegna experience, the third after Shanghai and New York. That also proves the strength of our personalization project. Let me also briefly touch on two important projects that reflect our commitment to excellence, to giving back, and to the environment. We recently appointed the first 20 Maestri of our Accademia dei Maestri, an internal school dedicated to preserving the unique know-how we have developed across the entire luxury value chain. It is a significant project inspired by our founders' relentless pursuit of excellence and commitment to the made in Italy. In 2025, we continue to work to make our group a more inclusive and diverse workplace.
I'm particularly satisfied to say that some 50% of our managerial positions are now covered by women. Last, for me, the most important, we continue to invest in traceable raw materials across our brand. These projects launched and the goals achieved are important, but for our group, sustainability is much more than just this. Sustainability and caring for our communities are a part of who we are and will continue to be so. Now, let me take a moment to talk about 2025 and our midterm targets. First of all, let me provide some color on current trading, since I know this will be your first question. The Q1 2025 trend still reflects a challenging environment in China. In addition, we will continue to reduce the wholesale footprint across all brands in line with our strategy focused on DTC and customer centricity.
This will continue to be a particular focus at Thom Browne, especially in the first part of the year. In fact, we do expect the trend in Thom Browne wholesale channel in Q1 of this year to be similar to Q1 2024. We also announced today an update of our midterm targets. We expect to reach a revenue between EUR 2.2 billion and EUR 2.4 billion, with an adjusted EBIT between EUR 250 million and EUR 300 million. These assumptions are based on a still cautious outlook for 2025, with an expected low single-digit growth in revenue and adjusted EBIT. Our assumption for this year factored in the expectation that the current challenging environment in Greater China will persist, in particular in the first semester, also due to the negative trend in Hong Kong.
We anticipate more sustained growth in 2026, 2027, as the steps we are currently taking across all three brands and our Filiera begin to yield results. You have my full commitment that we are working to turn them into reality. Thank you, let me turn over to Gianluca.
Gianluca Tagliabue (CFO and COO)
Thank you, Gildo. Let's move to page 10 of the presentation, where you find full year 2024 results key highlights. The revenues for the year were already disclosed at the end of January, and we confirmed them at EUR 1 billion 947 million, up 2% year-on-year, driven by Zegna brand organic growth. In 2024, the group reached 67% gross margin and adjusted EBIT of EUR 184 million and the profit of EUR 91 million. Let's move to the following pages to comment more on these results. On page 11, starting with gross profit. In full year 2024, gross profit rose by 230 basis points to EUR 1 billion 297 million, with a margin of 66.6%. This 230 basis points improvement from last year has been driven mostly by two factors. First, the channel mix more skewed towards DTC as the major driver of this improvement.
In 2024, DTC revenues reached 78% of the three combined brand revenues versus 73% last year. As you know, DTC gross margin carries a higher margin than the wholesale one. Second factor, a better inventory management, which we will see also in the trade working capital page. Let me also remind you that in full year 2024, cost of sales still included almost EUR 4 million of Tom Ford Fashion PPA-related charges purchased by the location. These charges were instead EUR 15.6 million in full year 2023. The 2024 amount is the last tranche of PPA-related charges from the acquisition of the remaining 85% of TFI, that is, the company that signed the 20-plus 10-year license agreement for the Tom Ford Fashion business. Moving on to SG&A. SG&A in full year 2024 reached EUR 1,008,000,000, with a 51.8% incidence of revenues compared to 47.3% in full year 2023.
The increase in SG&A incidence of revenues is linked to three drivers. First, the investment in talent and organization across different functions. We reinforced all the three brands, even if it is important to highlight that the investment made at Tom Ford Fashion represents the vast majority of the increase of SG&A in absolute terms versus 2023, also related to the fact that this year we had 12 months, while in 2023 we had 8 months of Tom Ford Fashion. The second factor, the expansion of the store network, including also the conversion of the Korean monobrand stores to DTC for both Zegna and Thom Browne, clearly, when we launch a new store, either from conversion or not, some ramp-up time is needed before reaching maturity.
Third factor, a negative operating leverage, in particular at Thom Browne, since we decided to streamline the wholesale business, which I remind you declined by 33% versus prior year in organic terms. Moving to marketing expenses. In 2024, we continued to invest on our brand. Marketing expenses were EUR 121 million, equal to 6.2% of revenues, slightly above the EUR 115 million mark achieved in 2023, which at the time was 6.0% of revenues. This is in line with our indication of a fair midterm marketing revenues incidence of around 6%. As already anticipated in the call related to H1 results, in 2024, we experienced a different timing of spending in marketing, fully related to the different concentration of events across the year, which has been more intense in H1 2024 compared to H2.
Let's now move to page 12 of the presentation, where we report the adjusted EBIT for the group and by segment. As always, this is the main performance metric used by the management to analyze the performance of the business at group and segment level, and you can find all the reconciliations in the appendix of this presentation. In full year 2024, our adjusted EBIT reached EUR 184 million compared to EUR 220 million in 2023. As Gildo commented, these results reflect largely the challenging sector environment, especially in Greater China, and the decision to streamline the wholesale business at Thom Browne, but reflects also the efforts that have been made to improve costs and postpone some projects that have not been considered a priority. This effort is continuing also in 2025.
Recently, we have taken, for instance, some important decisions as it regards to our Filiera, where we are reorganizing the activities of the fabric cutting, but concentrating them from the current two facilities into just one site. We are still working on other fronts of optimization at 360 degrees across the group. In particular, last year, Thom Browne segment has been the most penalized in terms of adjusted EBIT performance, having recorded the strongest reduction in revenues, minus 21% organic versus 2023, which in 2024 has been only partially mitigated by cost control actions. Tom Ford Fashion segment reported a loss at EBIT adjusted level, in line with our expectation, and also in line with the results that we reported in H1. Actually, the adjusted EBIT of Tom Ford Fashion in the second half of 2024 came in slightly above break-even.
The full year adjusted EBIT performance of Tom Ford Fashion reflects the cost to build the platform to support the long-term growth of this business, going from design to merchandising, from IT system to regional leaders, and so on. Last, on Zegna segment, that, as you know, includes Zegna brand, textile division, and third-party brands. This segment generated an adjusted EBIT likely south of 14%, 70 basis points below 2023. This performance reflects our decision to keep on pursuing strategic projects that are important for the long term of the brand in a market that over the year has become more challenging, especially in Greater China. I have to say that on the other side, the team has been responsive on working on cost control and containment actions.
On the positive side, corporate costs, including the inter-segment elimination, decreased to EUR 21 million compared to EUR 30 million in 2023, mostly due to lower costs for short-term and long-term remuneration. Moving to page 13, you can see here summarized our reported income statement. Let me make here one comment on taxes. As you see, the effective tax rate moved to 30%, a more normalized level compared to 20% of prior year, which was mainly a result of high non-taxable income. As a result of the above, we reported group's profit in 2024 at EUR 90.9 million.
I can also here anticipate that based on the 2024 results and acknowledging that in any year, the dividend per share should be at least equal to that of the prior year, the board of directors proposed a dividend distribution of EUR 0.12 per ordinary share, which equals to a total dividend distribution of roughly EUR 30 million. Let me move now to page 14, where we comment CapEx and trade working capital. In line with our indications, special CapEx in full year 2024 reached EUR 126 million, 6.4% of revenues, of which roughly 60% is related to the network and the remaining subsequently production, including the re-factory to the built growth department and related to IT.
As we already anticipated, 2024-2025 is going to be another important year in terms of CapEx, not only on the distribution side, but still also in production where we aim at completing the new re-factory by 2026. For this reason, we expect CapEx for 2025 to be between 6%-7% also this year. Trade working capital reached EUR 460 million at the end of December 2024, which is 23.6% of revenues compared to EUR 449 million at the end of 2023. Here we outlined the solid inventory management, which basically remained flat versus prior year. Looking at free cash flow, let me highlight at page 15 that the group generated EUR 10 million of free cash flow, positive, despite the already mentioned spike in CapEx paid EUR 126 million before mentioned. No major comment is said on page 16, but of course, I'm ready to take your questions.
As a result of this, the net financial indebtedness at the end of December was equal to EUR 94 million of net debt versus EUR 11 million at the end of 2023. I will finish here my presentation to leave space to your questions.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Thank you, Gianluca. Thank you, Gildo. Please, operator, can you open up to the first question from the audience?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please do so now by pressing star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. The first question comes from Chris Huang with UBS. Chris, please go ahead.
Chris Huang (Analyst)
Hello. Hi. Congratulations on the results. It's Chris from UBS, and I have three questions, please. Firstly, on latest trends in Q1, thanks for the color on China, but can you also share some details on how trends have so far shaped up in the US, given there's some increasing concerns around the American consumers slowing down? My second question is on Zegna's EBIT margin, which is very nice to see coming ahead of expectations. I presume this is reflective of the accelerating DTC growth into the second half of the year. Can you share some thoughts on margins going forward, and how much confidence do you have in delivering and constantly improving margins for Zegna segment, both sequentially but also year over year? Lastly, on Thom Browne, if I remember correctly, you are currently adjusting the product assortment of the brand.
Can you share some updates on that front and when we could expect a refreshed product portfolio? Thank you so much.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Thank you, Chris, for the three very interesting questions. The first one on colors, apart from China in the first quarter, specifically on US, I leave it to our CEO, and then maybe Gianluca for the EBIT.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Hi, Chris. I was in the States a few weeks ago, and I must say that I was impressed by the resilience that I saw. We keep doing well, both for Zegna and Tom Ford. It means we have good traction, and we are uncertain what the tariff might bring, but we are prepared to face the challenges. I think that our customer base is overall resilient for whatever happens. I think it's across the country. I mean, it's quite interesting. We still have a positive mind on the United States market. Slightly different in Canada, I must say. There is a little bit of a different attitude. I must add, you never asked about Latin America. Latin America, we are pretty satisfied on how last year ended and how it got started. The difference is from if you cover Greater China.
I must say that the Hong Kong situation is quite challenging, and we see a similar trend in the PSA Q1, similar to Q4. I think at this point, we expect a negative trend for the overall region by 2025. To give you some more color on the rest of the world, in Europe, we are still doing fine. We are still doing very well in the Alliance. I mean, it seems that trend is keep moving in that direction. I think if we put together Europe, if we put the Middle East and the USA, we do not see any sign of this situation.
Chris Huang (Analyst)
Hello. Sorry to interrupt. I think the line is quite bad. We can't really hear.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Sorry.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
You don't hear us? Hello?
Chris Huang (Analyst)
At least me. I cannot hear very well.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Shall I repeat that thing?
Chris Huang (Analyst)
Yes.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Can you hear me now?
Chris Huang (Analyst)
Yes. Here now it's better. Maybe if you can kindly repeat the comments on Hong Kong and Europe, please. Thank you so much.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
On Europe?
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
On Europe.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Hong Kong and Europe. Hong Kong, very challenging. In particular, this first quarter. The rest of China, I think the same picture as Q4. I think overall, Greater China will be negative in 2025. Europe still good, extremely well. The Emirates, in particular, Dubai. I think that if we put together Europe, United States, and the Emirates, there are no signs of deterioration, and we remain on a positive feeling for the rest of the year.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. Was it okay, Chris? Did you hear the answer?
Chris Huang (Analyst)
Yes. Super clear. Thank you. Yeah, super clear. Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Perfect. I leave it to Gianluca to comment on EBIT, and then maybe I'll go back to Gildo for the Thom Browne question.
Gianluca Tagliabue (CFO and COO)
Yeah. Yeah. Here is also your question about EBIT also related to DTC growth. I take it from I start from the evolution of how we see channels through the year and I land at the end with the EBIT. We declared a low single-digit growth expected in EBIT for this year. The context needs to be read through the evolution of geography, as Gildo said, by channel and also by brand. By channel, we see definitely DTC as the engine of growth. We are expecting, and we commented that DTC weight on branded revenues moved from 73% to 78%. This year, we have in front of us the goal of landing around 80% of DTC, with Zegna brand moving very close to 90% at this point. That is one driver of our evolution.
We have a different velocity that we are expecting here by brand, with Zegna and Tom Ford Fashion above the average, Thom Browne, and also textile for the size that it's textile are still below the average. Thom Browne, we are expecting the Q1 decline of wholesale not to be representative of the full year, but still we are expecting wholesale Thom Browne in the double-digit down. That will be the one driver of setting the scene for our EBIT at low single-digit growth. As it refers, I think you were asking also Zegna brand. In the second half of this year, Zegna brand recorded a 15% adjusted EBIT margin. We have to remind that that 15% is a consequence also of the time shift of some marketing expenses. If we look at the full year, it was 13.9%, which is more representative.
2025 for everybody, but also for Zegna, is still a year of investment in CRM, in marketing, in training store, in the factories of Parma, in personalization, in the quality of product. It is a year where we have decided to keep on making the investment, and we are expecting to see the full results after 2025 on the Zegna brand. Having in mind that when we declared the 15% adjusted EBIT margin, that is at least the number where Zegna should land, definitely not this year, but going forward.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Perfect. I don't know if this was clear, Chris, and if the line was working. I leave it now on Thom Browne and the product assortment evolution to our CEO, to Gildo.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
I think that we have seen a significant improvement in product evolution. I am a consumer, a potential consumer of heavy brands, and I can judge by myself. I must say, with 2024 was a rather classical approach. I think Thom, I mean, has moved ahead and taken a bolder but still commercial approach to how he wants his product to look in the showroom, and now it's transferred in the store. I think that we see this start happening in the assortment in the store for summer 2025, but it will be even stronger for the winter 2025, both in men's and women.
I think the show really did highlight this transformation from a more theatrical, very creative show to a more realistic show that you like to see what has shown in the store, a lot of tartan, a lot of jacquard, both men's and women. I think we will see some traction, in particular for the winter season. In terms of market, I started with the strong one. Japan is super strong. I think that regardless of the Chinese, whether they travel to Japan or not, I mean, Thom Browne remains a brand for the local. We are doing extremely well with the local. If the Chinese come, we surely serve them. Korea, we are doing still fine. These are the two markets that give us true satisfaction in 2024, and they keep doing well for 2025. China, some small signs, positive sign.
I think we touched probably the bottom last year, and I think we see some positive traction. I think that it has to do also with the support of assortment in which we made a step, I mean, from what they call the classic, the typical four-bar into a more fashion, but still commercial and distinctive items. I think that our inroads in the States are important. I mean, what I've indicated as opening more stores, it means that we do believe in the United States market also for Thom Browne, and in particular, Thom wants to strengthen his position there. I think that we should see some improvement there as well. I think that a push towards retaining in a moment in which we've been working to reduce sales, both in 2024 and also in 2025.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Chris, if you don't have follow-up, I can go to the second set of questions.
Chris Huang (Analyst)
All clear. Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Thank you, Chris. Operator, can you take the second?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Adrian Diverga with Goldman Sachs. Adrian, please go ahead.
Adrian Diverga (Analyst)
Hey, good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one would be, if you can comment a bit more on the guidance, maybe where do you see the growth opportunity in China? If you can detail that for the different brands. I know you already commented that you expect negative trends for the region in 2025, but maybe if you can comment on your expectation a bit further from this. The second question would be on Tom Ford Fashion. How is the integration progressing compared to your expectations? What scope do you see for continued DTC expansion? The third question, if I may, on the channel mix. The group has materially lowered the exposure to the wholesale channel. Do you expect the rationalization activity to now be largely complete?
If I understood correctly, you still expect double-digit down the wholesale for Thom Browne next year. What about the other brands? Thank you very much.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. I have the first question is on the 2027 target guidance. Adrian was asking about the opportunities implied in the guidance, particularly looking at China, if I understood correct. I might leave Gildo to make some comments, and then I do not know if Gildo wants to add on the China evolution.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Targets, '27 targets for China?
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
No, no, no. Just how we see China in 2024 evolution, how we see it.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Listen. We still believe that China.
Operator (participant)
Apologies for interrupting. This is the operator here. We are experiencing some audio issues from the management team's line. Please stand by while we attempt to resolve the issue.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Okay. Sorry about the.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Think about.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Now, on China, looking to 2027, we still remain positive on China. I think that luxury is related to China and vice versa. I think that China will be back. It's hard to manifest when it will be back, but there could be some sign of improvement in the second half. That is why I was there a few weeks ago, and that is what I see. We do not see any concrete things yet, but we remain positive. There might be some review on our network, possibly in going forward. Overall, we remain confident that our strategy is working well over there. The personalization, I think, is going to be important in China as much as it is in the United States. I think we are working a lot on the training side.
I think that if we have to favor something today, it is working on our people to make sure that our local people, that they understand they are able to attract new customers with a new strategy. Working with several in-store events in order to create one-to-one relationship with customers to explain to them where the brand is going and what is the innovation factor with the brand. Also by inviting them to our experiences around the world. I mean, next one, as you know, will be Dubai. Surely we'll make sure that some top customers of China will be there too. Overall, a positive mind, but I think it's going to be a gradual movement.
Just add one point. I think within the softness of China, an important leading indicator that we continuously monitor is the growth of the ICÉ spenders, which we cut, as you know, about 50,000 per year. I think on that part, on that cluster of clients, we are growing also in China. Of course, China is suffering from traffic, but our focused effort on the ICÉ spender individuals is gaining traction also there.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
The second question was on the TFF integration. How is it progressive? I leave it to you to comment.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
I think it's progressing fairly well. I think we see the reaction not only by the price, but all the stakeholders. I'm referring to the final customer and the wholesale. They're quite promising. I think that we were bold enough to create what we call a drop of by now or now, I mean, from some item out of the show to have them in the six top stores around the world the day after the show. I think by inviting VAC, a top spender, I think they really appreciate what they could pick ahead of time. We had the week after the show, we had the collections in the showroom, and we had a good reaction by the wholesaler. I must say that our wholesale numbers are higher than the one of the previous season.
Social media, in general, and media, I mean, around the world has been very receptive to the show. I can only tell positive. We are working on the next show to make sure that we have the right item in the stores because we have not completed our distribution expansion. I think we need to upstore to make justice to the validity of the line that has met expectations, both in men's and women. These are important things. Until now, Tom Ford Fashion has been more a men's line than a women's line. I think that this show, I mean, has been able to rebalance the equation. I think that in the show, we saw some new highlights.
I think that we are coming out with more icon pieces that the customer wishes to have together with also their personalized approach to the product, to the service, which is very much in Tom Ford style and attitude.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Perfect. The third, if there is no follow-up, the third question is on the rationalization of the channel mix, asking if it is fairly completed overall and clearly by brand. That was the question.
Gianluca Tagliabue (CFO and COO)
I confirm what we said before on the Thom Browne side. We still see a double-digit decline on wholesale. At that point, we should be more on a steady state. In Zegna and Tom Ford, we also see a decline of wholesale. On Zegna, it is driven by two factors. One is the conversions that we have activated through 2024, mainly in Canada, but also selectively in the U.S. A second factor, we have been investing heavily in our icons. The Triple Stitch is the most visible, but there are others. We are starting to activate a more and more selective distribution of our icons within an icon protection program in our wholesale. That is a second driver of strengthening DTC by applying a selective distribution on icons on Zegna.
On Tom Ford, the effect is conversions again, the decline of Tom Ford, which we are expecting for this year. We have converted United Arrows Men. We have converted Saks New York. There is a carryover effect of some conversions also on Tom Ford. Yes, we are expecting the three brands to shrink their distribution on wholesale for different reasons, but this will be a factor for 2025.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Thank you very much.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Operator, Adrian, if you are okay, we'll move to the third one.
Adrian Diverga (Analyst)
Yes, thank you very much.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you, Operator.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Oliver Chen with TD Cowen. Oliver, please go ahead.
Oliver Chen (Analyst)
Hi, Gildo. And not a great job on the Tom Ford Fashion show. As we look at the model this year, Street's looking for about 4% revenue growth. I'm curious if that's achievable and 60 basis points of margin expansion. As you think about the brands, will Zegna be in the 5-6% growth range, and will the other brands be slightly positive? Just would love any general parameters around growth rates by brand, acknowledging that there's a lot of volatility and China has been more challenging. As we model your 2027 guidance as well, longer term, what should the complexion be of the revenue growth rate in the years ahead? Just general parameters would be helpful as we think about that.
Finally, diving into the Zegna brand with the growth rate, how do you think that will evolve pricing relative to transactions as we model ahead? Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. Perfect. Thank you, Oliver. I think they're all questions for Gianluca. The first one, if I understood well, was a little bit of color on 2025 evolution. Clearly, we cannot be too precise, so it will be very high colors. I will leave it to Gianluca.
Gianluca Tagliabue (CFO and COO)
I tried to put together some content that can help you model, but we cannot be too specific. On one side, we have the three brands on wholesale down. We have said that Zegna and Tom Ford, despite the decline of wholesale as a brand, overall, they are growing more than the average. We expect to have both Zegna, DTC, and Tom Ford as being the driver of our growth. For Zegna, it's mostly on a comp basis. For Tom Ford, it's a combination of comp and non-comp. This is for 2025. On Thom Browne, we have said the double-digit decline on the wholesale. On Thom Browne, the growth on DTC will come mostly in our low single-digit growth. We bake in the growth coming mostly from space. As Gildo was mentioning, there are several openings coming this year.
We have the anniversary of openings that took place last year. Also, the takeover of some locations in Canada, Old Trentford, for instance. The driver of growth is coming from DTC. We said DTC is expected to land overall at 80%. I think these are the connecting dots where I can help you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
The other question was, I'm sorry.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
No, I think that we can add also the productivity factor.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Of the stores.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Of the stores. I think overall, there is a good traction in gaining productivity. I would say both with Zegna and Tom Ford. I think that this product evolution, not only on the upper side, but also on broadening the offer. For instance, we are coming out with this beautiful new collection of Moccasin shoes. It's a new loafer, partially handmade with incredible leather, with Unlined summer, without the sole, very Mediterranean, very Kenyan, very lifestyle. I think that product like that, I mean, in other products, we're coming out with the knitwear. We are modeling that every day of 15-gauge that is a lightweight knitwear, very comfortable, fresh for the men who travel, for the office also.
I think that all projects that are not super expensive, their costs are not expensive, I think will help drive the productivity in the Zegna store in order to attract a new customer and satisfy the current customer that already has plenty of Zegna iconic products. We said on the iconicity and on the balance of the Tom Ford collection, and I think that that will be also helping in the productivity. I think that we have put in place, I mean, all the necessary items or weapons in order to improve our DTC development. Also, I must say, whenever we turn a wholesale into a concession store, we can make the example of the Nordstrom in the United States, or we can make the example of Harrods. We see that the productivity climbs automatically. We just have to speed up.
Likewise for Thom Browne. I think that it's something that we own, and it's just a matter of executing properly and speeding up the execution wherever we open store or we convert store.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Okay.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
We have questions.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Oliver.
Oliver Chen (Analyst)
Oh, yeah. With love, thoughts on the complexion of growth multi-year, but another one is regarding product at Thom Browne. What are your thoughts on recruitment tools there and applying the right amount of Simplify to Amplify in terms of growing awareness of Thom Browne in a commercial way? On Tom Ford Fashion, more specifically, what's the game plan for women's and accessories in terms of timing and impact and what we should watch as you continue to push forward with a new powerful creative vision? Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you, Oliver. The question is on Thom Browne, how we are enlarging the, as you said, the target to enlarging our customer base to be more engaging and how this is progressing. The second one on Tom Ford, on the women and accessories plan of evolution.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Okay. I start with the second one first. It's a must. I think Tom Ford, it's hard to say whether it's more fashion ready-to-wear or it's more accessories. I think it's both. I think that Peter Hawkings has done a marvelous job in showing what they can do in ready-to-wear. I think we are at the beginning of the journey with Tom Ford Accessories. I think he did some interesting presentation in the shoes. I think in bags, we have some work to do. I think that you will see more happening in summer 2026. It was impossible for him to do everything the first time. I think that he did focus on the things which we needed most, which was the clothing side. As a matter of fact, you can appreciate that most of the fabric were from our textile platform.
Most of the products were produced in our factories, which is very, very satisfactory. I think you will see more for summer 2026 in terms of accessories. I think that in Tom Ford, as I said before, I think the challenge there is to go after the local.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thom Browne.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Sorry, Thom Browne. Thom Browne. I think that the collection that Thom has put together meets this objective. I think that the collection was spot on for Asia, but I think that more selection, a different selection was needed for both North America and Europe, which I think that the Fall/Winter 2025 collection has shown. I think also the marketing, the marketing, if you look at the catalog, what we call the lookbook, we change gears. I mean, from a lookbook that looks very creative, very show-driven, it is a lookbook of a product you like to purchase in the store, and you can find it in the store. That together with events and with outreach will help reaching out more of the locals. The goal really is for Thom Browne is retail and going after the local with a collection more geared towards that.
I must say Zegna has been leader. I think that the way we turned around Zegna with their branding was not just go after the visitor, regardless of where they were, just go after the local. Then the visitor can add to that. I think they really did a super job. The same will apply. I think it will be, I think that you asked me when it will happen, it will happen. You have to take an actual and organic growth. You just can't push it to the limit. I think that the direction is there, the vision is there. It's just a matter to execute it properly. I see some positiveness already on both brands for the Fall/Winter 2025 line in the store.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Oliver, are you okay? Can we move to the next question?
Oliver Chen (Analyst)
Yeah. Thank you very much. Best regards.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you so much. Next question.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We have one further question registered, which comes from Melanie Grippow with BNP Paribas. Melanie, please go ahead.
Melanie Grippow (Analyst)
Good morning or good afternoon, everyone. This is Melanie Grippow from BNP Paribas Excellence. I have two questions. The first one, if you could please share the initial feedback. Client reaction to your Value Sourcing launch? Have you seen any difference by country? If you could please give more granularity around it. My second question is on the CapEx for 2025. I think you mentioned them during the presentation, but I could not hear very well. Also, an update on your supply chain. When should we expect the factory in Parma to be completed? Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you. Thank you, Melanie. On value sourcing reaction also by countries, I'll leave Gildo to comment.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Yeah. I must say that I said I found a similar reaction on a launch project. If I can make the example of Triple Stitch or Contour Jacket, I think we had peaks and lows. Some countries acted after one season, the other after a couple of seasons. I must say that Value Sourcing, maybe because it was selectively distributed, we had only in a small number of doors, very selective, and we invited the customer to preview the collection. I must say that we had good traction across the world. If I had to make a ranking, number one is Europe. I would say number one is the Middle East. I have to put a ranking. Number two is Europe. Number three is the United States. Number four is Asia in terms of ranking. I would say all four in pretty good standards.
I think that the merit was the communication. It was the focus and was the planning of inviting the customer ahead of time and by creating an experience when they saw the collection and creating a kind of a surprise effect. That is something that they could buy, which is unique. The interesting thing is that we had a couple of cases of VAC, what they call our Zegna 300 Circle, have been bought in the same week in several places. They bought one jacket in one place, one cotton, and they bought a jersey, and then they bought. It means that they appreciate the product and they bought more as the travel took them around the world. It is interesting, this journey. A very positive journey.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
On CapEx '25 and update on the chain, I might leave a loop, and then if you want to comment.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
Thanks, Melanie. The CapEx for 2024 was 6.4%, and we confirm that 2025 will still be in the range of 6-7%. That is also coming from the effort we are doing in Parma. 2025 is the major year for making the construction. We started, and the goal is to have the factory up and running in the second half of next year.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Perfect.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
So '26.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
You are all right, Melanie. I can go to one question from the webcast, which is a little bit more for Gildo but also for Gildo, for our CEO. The question says, "What exactly has changed in 2027 outlook and why more conservative? Midterm view on China despite winning share with your best consumers?" Gildo will comment.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
I think that it's very simple. I think we are elitic, and we have to live in today's times. We have to change targets for a different market environment and for timing reasons. It's as simple as that. The second reason is that we cannot compromise between margin and brand dilution. This is the second reason. We remain confident that we can also do better. The fact that we're working on cost and on productivity for improvement, I mean, it's very important. The other thing is that we have taken, rightly so, a policy to defend our investment in marketing, in CapEx, in research and development, in a selective way, not just a but it's easy when times get challenging as they got beside China in 2024 and 2025. Okay, no, we cut this and we cut that. No.
We go in for the long term. We have a vision for each brand, and we want to keep that vision. I think that this compromise between margin and brand dilution is key. I think that we gave priority to that rather than rushing it and then maybe having surprises later on.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. I don't think Gildo needs to add anything. We've been done. I don't know if there are operators' any further questions.
Operator (participant)
We have a follow-up question on the line from Oliver Chen with TD Cowen. Oliver, please go ahead.
Oliver Chen (Analyst)
Hi. Thanks, Gildo and Gianluca. Thanks a lot, Paola. The question is on wholesale. Wholesale has been a tough channel throughout, and we see some risks this year in wholesale in different regions as well. What's doing better versus worse in wholesale, and how much volatility? Has wholesale gotten worse since you last reported? Just curious about regions and strengths and weaknesses with that since it's impacting a lot of your portfolio.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Okay. The question is on wholesale, what's doing better or worse and what we are seeing. Maybe it's right to divide by brand.
Gildo Zegna (CEO)
I think it's more than what's doing better than worse from a geographical standpoint. I think that what is doing better is our franchisee. That is a different kind of nature of wholesalers because we are able to implement in the franchisee most of our go-to-market strategy. In terms of cadence of products, in terms of training tools, in terms of different merchandise. That part across the geographies on the Zegna side, mainly, it's performing well. It is the case, of course, in some of the Eastern European countries, in some of the Middle Eastern, African, South American. In countries where we do not go direct and we have a trusted partner, and we are able to make them be part of our DTC strategy, DTC-like strategy. I think that is the part. On the others, which are either department stores or specialty doors, it depends.
It depends very much from their financial stability. It is scattered. I cannot say that there is one specific trend. It is scattered. There are some ones that are going well where they have the trust of their clients, where they have the financial stability to do proper open-to-buy, and others that are more struggling on the open-to-buy or have less of a trusted link with their clients. We see them struggle more. There is no one pattern.
Gianluca Tagliabue (CFO and COO)
I would make a big difference here between specialty store and department store. Okay. The fewer and many specialty stores which we are in have done super well. I must say that I can't give you the numbers, but I must say that in the past two seasons, we have been the Zegna among one of the top brands in terms of reception. Why? Because the selection was focused and to just the local like what we bought. As simple as that. I can make the example of the number one specialty store in the United States, Mitchell. Mitchell family that have now six stores. They've done—we are the major supplier of them. We have done extremely well. Whenever you have a store that caters to the local with a good offer and a good service and a good customer base, well.
With department store, it's more difficult, and I don't want to make names. We do this because the concession model and in privilege of that, we have done well. What Gildo said is franchising. For me, franchising is more retail. I mean, even though we can't do it in the wholesale, it's the declination of the DTC in countries where we don't feel going direct yet or maybe go tomorrow. I think that is controlled by us in a way. The open-to-buy, the selection, the visual, the personalization, that is there is, but it's a lot of behind. Overall, we have proved our distribution in Zegna, surely, more so in some ground. I think that in Tom Ford, we've been always very selective.
One of the things that I must say, chapeau for Tom Ford is their selectivity in distribution is one of the most selected brands wholesale distributed. We can only do better with those provided we give them proper merchandise. Overall, even though the split is 80/20, I think that I personally do care a lot about the 20% of wholesalers because we can really do well with them and it is a way to help us increase in the local. I keep saying the biggest challenge of a luxury brand is to cater to the local. If you can do that, and I do not want to make a couple of examples. There are a couple of examples. The ones that are able to do that, they are going to be more immune to crisis, whatever it is, or to traveling or to foreign fluctuation.
I think that this is an important thing that more so now we want to foster in all the three brands. I do not think there are many that can do that.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you.
Oliver Chen (Analyst)
Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you, Ali. I asked really if there is the final one. Otherwise, I think it's time for us to thank you, operators.
Operator (participant)
We have no further questions registered.
Paola Durante (Chief of External Relations)
Thank you so much. I thank you, everybody, for always the very interesting question that always surprised us on the positive side. Just a couple of reminders. We report the first quarter results on the 24th of April. Silent period will start on April 1st. We also would like to advise you that our fiscal year 2024 annual report will be filed today after market close. Thank you. Gildo and I, we are here for any follow-up questions you might have. Thank you so much for everything.